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  #61  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:26 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
besides covid, not everyone wants to send their kids to a school in NYC ,run by del blasio's incompetent, woke chancellor.
Right, so they're moving to ultra-left Montclair. Manhattan/Brooklyn parents just realized, in horror, that NYC was liberal, so they obviously moved to a super-liberal suburb. Makes sense.

LOL, this thread is just mindless trolling by the resident Trumpists. I thought everyone was fleeing the cities because BLM was burning down the cities and woke libtards were forcing their children into gender confusion. Anything to distract from their epic disaster.
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  #62  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:28 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
What is happening? Be specific and provide evidence.
^ I have, you've just made up your mind to disregard it--if you're even bothering to look.

Either way, I'm highly invested in urban real estate so it's not like I want this to happen.

Lets see how it goes
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  #63  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:29 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
sale prices jumping 5% in desirable suburbs is evidence. Rent increases are even higher.

I'm sure you can find examples on zillow.
There has been a massive decrease in suburban sales in the NYC area. If there were heightened interest in suburbs, it would eventually manifest in increased sales. That hasn't happened:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/r...-era-lows.html
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  #64  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:32 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Crawford is in denial


COVID-19 Pandemic Pushes Many In New York City To Suburbs
July 4, 20207:58 AM ET


The real estate market is white hot in many suburbs outside New York City. The pandemic pushed many thinking about making the move to actually go for it.

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

Quote:
Trends often start in New York, like B.J. Lederman, who writes our theme music. People have been moving to the suburbs for decades, but now the coronavirus outbreak may have hastened that movement, even in New York, and that has a lot of people talking about the future of cities. NPR's Uri Berliner reports.

URI BERLINER, BYLINE: Susan Horowitz has never seen anything like it.

SUSAN HOROWITZ: We are seeing 20 offers on houses. We are seeing things going 30% over the asking price. It's kind of insane.

BERLINER: Horowitz is a veteran real estate agent and she's talking about the frantic hyper-competitive market in Montclair, N.J., a suburb about 12 miles from New York City.

HOROWITZ: It is a blood sport.

BERLINER: Montclair is the kind of suburb that even appeals to demanding New Yorkers. It has yoga studios, restaurants you can walk to, art galleries, even a film festival. Horowitz says it's always been popular but now on a completely different scale.

HOROWITZ: Every last bit of it is COVID-related.

BERLINER: New Yorkers used to say maybe we'll move there one day. Now they've decided.

HOROWITZ: We don't have looky-loos anymore. We don't have people coming out to sort of test the market and see what's out there.

BERLINER: Horowitz says people are eager to buy, like Miriam Kanter and Steve Kanaplue. They're expecting their first child in September. Miriam works in ad sales, Steve's in risk management, and until recently, they were living in a one-bedroom apartment on Manhattan's Upper West Side with their dog, Booey. As the virus spiked in the spring, their anxiety about going outside mounted.

MIRIAM KANTER: So it was coming in and out of the building at least four to five times a day to walk him. It was getting really stressful.

BERLINER: Miriam and Steve had been planning to move to the suburbs since January. The pandemic clinched it.

KANTER: Being in the epicenter - the washing of the hands - it's just the nerves of it all. It was pushing us out the door for sure.

BERLINER: Out the door to Montclair. In late April, their offer on a colonial with black shutters and a big front porch beat out four other bids. Miriam says they paid almost 20% above the asking price. She thinks it would have cost even more if they waited. And so on June 1, they moved in and officially became suburbanites.

KANTER: Everything changed the moment we could let the dog out in the yard.

BERLINER: Similar stories are playing out throughout the Greater New York area. Since March, around 10,000 New York residents applied to change their address with the postal service and moved to Connecticut - that's according to Hearst Connecticut Media. And in the suburbs north of the city and further upstate, here's real estate agent Monica Schwerberg.

MONICA SCHWERBERG: In the month of April, where we typically would get maybe 75 inquiries in a month, we had over 400 inquiries.

BERLINER: Ditching the city and buying a quiet place away from the crowds takes money. Only the relatively well-off can do it. It's not really an option for low-wage workers who take the subway and worry about getting sick. But for those who have the option of moving, it's not just anxiety over the virus. Glenn Kelman is the CEO of the national real estate brokerage Redfin. He says remote work has offered a new kind of freedom.

GLENN KELMAN: COVID has changed what people want. They want that house in the hills near a lake that's far away from everyone else. But work from home has also liberated them.

BERLINER: People leaving congested cities for the suburbs - it's the story of America and has been for many generations. There was a period about a decade ago when big cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles grew quite a lot.

WILLIAM FREY: That's unheard of.

BERLINER: William Frey is a demographer at the Brookings Institution.

FREY: Since they invented the car, I don't think we saw a few years where cities as a group were growing faster than suburbs.

BERLINER: All that got a lot of media attention, especially about millennials in Brooklyn. But the picture has shifted once again over the past few years.

FREY: There was more movement to the suburbs, more movement to smaller sized metropolitan areas.

BERLINER: So does that mean that a superstar city like New York will wither away? Frey doesn't think so. He says New York is resilient. Its appeal is timeless, and maybe members of Gen Z will flock there, just like the millennials did a decade ago. Uri Berliner, NPR News.
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/04/88723...ity-to-suburbs
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  #65  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:37 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...oes-in-reverse

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-est...st-long-island

Coronavirus sparks 'insane' evacuation from NYC, movers say, as residents head south

While fewer moves are taking place in the US overall, relocations from NYC are surging
k City real estate will come back from coronavirus: Douglas Elliman CEO
Douglas Elliman CEO Dottie Herman provides insight into how the coronavirus has impacted residents living in big cities.


Quote:
New York City, the metropolitan area hardest hit by the domestic coronavirus outbreak, is losing residents at an unprecedented clip, according to local moving companies.

Roadway Moving President Ross Sapir, for example, told FOX Business that people are moving out of Manhattan in numbers he has “never seen before,” as his company deals with its busiest season since its 2008 inception.

“It’s insane … I’ve never seen such growth,” Sapir said. “[Business is] double or triple compared to any other season as far as moving out of the city.”

On some days, Roadway experiences a 200 percent increase in leaving inquiries. Its clientele consists largely of higher net-worth individuals, typically 25-year-old to 45-year-old professionals in well-to-do parts of Manhattan.

United Van Lines CEO Marc Rogers told FOX Business that the majority of residents moving out of Manhattan, 61 percent, are earning over $100,000. And those moving out also tend to be older – 64 percent are aged 55 or over – or in the 25 to 40 age range (25 percent).

“New York City is up very dramatically for May in … these leads for interest in moving,” Rogers said.

The New York market has seen a 40 percent uptick in interest for move-outs when compared with last year, according to data provided to FOX Business by United Van Lines. Those numbers far outpace national trends, which show an average increase of 8 percent during the same time period.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/features...ane-exodus-nyc
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  #66  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:37 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Crawford is in denial
Nope, the Trumpist city-haters love mindless trolling.

And LOL at again mentioning Montclair. Montclair is basically the Berkeley, CA of NJ, and feels like Brooklyn-Queens.

If Montclair is booming does that mean that people are fleeing towards Leftist, SJW cities?
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  #67  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:48 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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I like how the only people trumpeting this nonsense don't live in a big city at all.
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  #68  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 4:08 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I like how the only people trumpeting this nonsense don't live in a big city at all.
To the contrary.

90% of my investments are in very urban, transit-served areas.

I don't know how many times I need to keep repeating that, or the fact that I agree with you that I doubt that these are long term trends.

Doesn't change what we are observing right now, though, whether anyone likes or not
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  #69  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 4:10 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Nope, the Trumpist city-haters love mindless trolling.
Yeah, I hate cities...that's why I'm here after all

Quote:
And LOL at again mentioning Montclair. Montclair is basically the Berkeley, CA of NJ, and feels like Brooklyn-Queens.

If Montclair is booming does that mean that people are fleeing towards Leftist, SJW cities?
And there we have it, the Crawford (TM) goal post move. Even before I started the countdown! Always as predicted
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  #70  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 4:27 PM
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dc_denizen dc_denizen is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Right, so they're moving to ultra-left Montclair. Manhattan/Brooklyn parents just realized, in horror, that NYC was liberal, so they obviously moved to a super-liberal suburb. Makes sense.

LOL, this thread is just mindless trolling by the resident Trumpists. I thought everyone was fleeing the cities because BLM was burning down the cities and woke libtards were forcing their children into gender confusion. Anything to distract from their epic disaster.
that's not the only suburb they're moving to.
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  #71  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 4:32 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
To the contrary.

90% of my investments are in very urban, transit-served areas.

I don't know how many times I need to keep repeating that, or the fact that I agree with you that I doubt that these are long term trends.

Doesn't change what we are observing right now, though, whether anyone likes or not
The observations that we're witnessing are pandemic-induced. It's like inferring longterm unemployment trends based off of our current unemployment numbers.
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  #72  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 5:13 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The observations that we're witnessing are pandemic-induced.
^ Well, that's why this thread is called 'How COVID is creating opportunities in the suburbs'
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  #73  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 5:27 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ Well, that's why this thread is called 'How COVID is creating opportunities in the suburbs'
These aren't opportunities. In 10 years, panic-buying a house in the suburbs will probably not look smart. Nor will this current situation save suburban office parks. If anything, cities (the smart ones, at least) are using this opportunity to double down on urban improvements to become even more livable when this is over. One example is how cities are reclaiming space dedicated to cars and allowing people to use it more productively.
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  #74  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 5:54 PM
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Hopefully after this pandemic is finished, out door dining becomes a new norm. Its kinda nice to have out door dining, European style, in the U.S., especially in the suburbs or small towns in the suburbs!

Its kinda nice to see folks outside for once.
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  #75  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 5:54 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
These aren't opportunities. In 10 years, panic-buying a house in the suburbs will probably not look smart.
^ The thread isn't called "How COVID is creating long term changes in the housing market"

The article that started this thread is about the here and now. What you are offering is a prediction.

It sounds like you want a thread title that is so precise and narrow that it will be impossible to fit within the space provided.

Bottom line: you know what this thread is about, it's not difficult. Perhaps you just don't like or agree with how the pandemic is affecting cities, but that doesn't change the fact that it's happening right now. And for the damn 10th time, I am not saying that these changes are permanent. Is it that hard for people on this forum to read anything?
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  #76  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:36 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ The thread isn't called "How COVID is creating long term changes in the housing market"

The article that started this thread is about the here and now. What you are offering is a prediction.

It sounds like you want a thread title that is so precise and narrow that it will be impossible to fit within the space provided.

Bottom line: you know what this thread is about, it's not difficult. Perhaps you just don't like or agree with how the pandemic is affecting cities, but that doesn't change the fact that it's happening right now. And for the damn 10th time, I am not saying that these changes are permanent. Is it that hard for people on this forum to read anything?
I don't care that you made the thread. I'm offering my opinion on the topic.
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  #77  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:42 PM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Hopefully after this pandemic is finished, out door dining becomes a new norm. Its kinda nice to have out door dining, European style, in the U.S., especially in the suburbs or small towns in the suburbs!

Its kinda nice to see folks outside for once.
It is weird how most Americans don't eat outside normally. I almost always would prefer eat outside when I have the chance in normal times, although my wife (Filipino-American) always wants to go inside...
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  #78  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:45 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Hopefully after this pandemic is finished, out door dining becomes a new norm. Its kinda nice to have out door dining, European style, in the U.S., especially in the suburbs or small towns in the suburbs!

Its kinda nice to see folks outside for once.
^ Outdoor dining has already been quite popular as far as I've seen, long before Covid.

The biggest problem I see is if rising case numbers cause States to move to an earlier phase of lockdowns that prohibit indoor dining just as fall and winter arrive. Restaurants will be back to 100% carry out or delivery models again.
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  #79  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:54 PM
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Yeah I think the same, takeout if the numbers rise. This Fall really worries me, its going to suck.

With outdoor dining, I live out in the suburbs, for my frame of reference. Somerset County, where I'm at, is a more upscale county (taxes are horrific), but it is nice. Unfortunately, its not what we would say, city like. Large houses, with 1-2 acres of land, and hills. Some of the local nearby towns have folks outside, but pre-pandemic, most ate inside. Now we are seeing a lot more establishments have outdoor chairs/tables, and in some of the small towns I've driven through over the last few weeks, its kinda nice.

Its also interesting how many more folks walk outside given that gyms are only open with appointments in NJ.

On a side note, I've actually gotten much closer to my gf on an emotional level, a significant other if we can call that... because we've been forced to improvise on what we do due to things closing, so in a way, the pandemic has created a nice mental shift. As odd as it sounds, its a teaching lesson in a way.
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  #80  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I don't care that you made the thread. I'm offering my opinion on the topic.
I still think you guys are off-base in your claims that TUP and others want inner cities to fail.

Most everyone on here, even those who reside in suburbs, wants to see downtowns and inner cities do well.

But at least in the short term, there is a lot of potential for them to lose a bit of population. This is unfortunate as many have posted some nice gains in recent years and decades.
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