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  #11281  
Old Posted May 26, 2020, 8:06 PM
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Originally Posted by rbt View Post
Impressive if achievable. Costs under $700/month is really hard in the GTA; property taxes alone on a $750k condo would be $300/month.

Maintenance fees here have crept up to 70 cents/sqft for modern buildings (concierge/guard, pool, workout facilities, etc.); which would be around $300/month on a 400sqft bachelor pad.
Toronto has to follow depreciation reports I believe. I didn't seek an exact number on my $300/month estimate, could easily be $400-500.
An $1600/month for a $750,000 place is low, rents are usually $2500-$3000.
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  #11282  
Old Posted May 26, 2020, 9:49 PM
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Here's how Toronto is looking, inventory reducing sales increasing.



https://twitter.com/areacode416/stat...48150757384192


--------------------------------------------------------------

Evan Siddall, CMHC President and CEO answers questions. As Pierre points out he's one of the rare people who provides straight answers. Evan is quite optimistic and says "loss forecasts are not extreme".

Video Link

Last edited by misher; May 26, 2020 at 10:55 PM.
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  #11283  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 7:12 AM
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Originally Posted by misher View Post
Here's how Toronto is looking, inventory reducing sales increasing.
...
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
We can't conclude anything from a market "heating up" after covid restrictions start to get lifted, as clearly there will be pent up demand.
I guess it's the last time I'm talking to this particular brick wall, so that's that.
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  #11284  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 6:03 PM
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CMHC housing forecast:

CMHC says housing prices won't have fully recovered by end of 2022
BY PAUL JAMES AND THE CANADIAN PRESS
Posted May 27, 2020

OTTAWA — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says it expects home prices and sales to decline substantially this year and still won’t have recovered by the end of 2022.

The federal housing agency says in a special housing market outlook that it expects home prices to decline between nine and 18 per cent, and as much as 25 per cent in oil-producing regions, before starting to recover by mid-2021.

The report also predicts average home prices in B.C. could drop close to $100,000 this year.

It says the drop in home prices will come along with a “historic recession” this year as the economic shock of COVID-19, including a plunge in oil prices, hits the market.

CMHC says home sales could decline by 19 to 29 per cent from pre-COVID levels before starting to recover late this year....


https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/05...y-end-of-2022/
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  #11285  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 1:23 AM
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CMHC housing forecast:

CMHC says housing prices won't have fully recovered by end of 2022
But now who will post something from a realtor’s twitter feed as refutation?
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  #11286  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 2:02 AM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by dreambrother808 View Post
But now who will post something from a realtor’s twitter feed as refutation?
I'm not sure I believe CMHC either. Anybody making predictions about RE or the economy over the next 2 years is taking a wild guess.
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  #11287  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 2:49 AM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
I'm not sure I believe CMHC either. Anybody making predictions about RE or the economy over the next 2 years is taking a wild guess.
True, I don’t mind predictions as long as their made in good faith, without propaganda, and taken with a grain of salt.
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  #11288  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 3:41 AM
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Originally Posted by dreambrother808 View Post
True, I don’t mind predictions as long as their made in good faith, without propaganda, and taken with a grain of salt.
I've got my Scientology membership card (thetan clearing section III), my collection of Sino-Soviet Gay Vacation posters and thirty-seven pallets of Memories of Sicilia Sea Salt that I'm having trouble unloading on Amazon. So I hope you won't mind me making a prediction about real estate in Canada?

My prediction: it's too hard to predict.
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  #11289  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 4:04 AM
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I am ok with predictions too as long as it is made in good faith. Lots of data out there that can be used to interpret things and sometimes that can be a glass half full or half empty. Look at this thread... started on Jun 30, 2011. If you had bought a place in one of those hot Canadian markets (Vancouver and Toronto) on that date. You'd be laughing all the way to the bank now.
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  #11290  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 5:18 AM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by NetMapel View Post
I am ok with predictions too as long as it is made in good faith. Lots of data out there that can be used to interpret things and sometimes that can be a glass half full or half empty. Look at this thread... started on Jun 30, 2011. If you had bought a place in one of those hot Canadian markets (Vancouver and Toronto) on that date. You'd be laughing all the way to the bank now.
Yep I have no problem with good faith projections. Show some data, give a few reasons and make some educated guesses.

The source is always important. My RE agent says it's always a good time to buy or sell.
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  #11291  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 12:14 PM
p_xavier p_xavier is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
I'm not sure I believe CMHC either. Anybody making predictions about RE or the economy over the next 2 years is taking a wild guess.
Yeah, people got so fed up with the lock-down that people are selling to get a house. Three in my building alone.
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  #11292  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 1:49 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by rousseau View Post
My prediction: it's too hard to predict.
Totally agree. If markets were easy to predict then we would never have booms and busts, but even those most invested in markets (of all types), who have the most incentive to get it right, very often get it wrong.

My, likely wrong, prediction is that while there might be some price declines we won't see a return to affordability in the expensive cities. The fundamentals won't change, there are too many people for not enough housing. Unless unemployment stays at 20%, which I don't think it will and if it does that's a bigger problem than the house prices.
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  #11293  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 2:47 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Yep I have no problem with good faith projections. Show some data, give a few reasons and make some educated guesses.

The source is always important. My RE agent says it's always a good time to buy or sell.
Given the huge loan loss provisions the big banks are taking, the indications are they expect it to get ugly.
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  #11294  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 3:26 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Yeah, people got so fed up with the lock-down that people are selling to get a house. Three in my building alone.
What a ridiculously rash decision for a short term issue.
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  #11295  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 3:27 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Given the huge loan loss provisions the big banks are taking, the indications are they expect it to get ugly.
Yep, Canada will get hit like the US did in 2008-09. The rich will scoop up properties for pennies on the dollar and wealth disparity will increase.
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  #11296  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 3:32 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
I'm not sure I believe CMHC either. Anybody making predictions about RE or the economy over the next 2 years is taking a wild guess.
CMHC securitizes the mortgages for the banks. I'd say they do have some insight. They didn't given an exact number. Just a range.
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  #11297  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 3:41 PM
p_xavier p_xavier is offline
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What a ridiculously rash decision for a short term issue.
It's not a short term issue. Employers now see teleworking as a viable option. No need to stay in the city in a cramped condo anymore.
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  #11298  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 3:46 PM
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What a ridiculously rash decision for a short term issue.
After a couple of months of lockdown, it isn't surprising that some people reached a breaking point... especially those who were thinking about buying anyway.
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  #11299  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 4:03 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by p_xavier View Post
It's not a short term issue. Employers now see teleworking as a viable option. No need to stay in the city in a cramped condo anymore.
Do they? The future will tell us, but I wouldn't make any huge life decisions (like buying and selling RE) at this time.
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  #11300  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 5:48 PM
p_xavier p_xavier is offline
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Do they? The future will tell us, but I wouldn't make any huge life decisions (like buying and selling RE) at this time.
Well I did, my condo is for sale! We got a letter from the union stating we can telework 3 days a week when this is all over. My employer wants to put it all-day week for those who want and can. It was already planned because of the REM impact but COVID hasten the decision.
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