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  #9361  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2019, 9:01 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by Martin Mtl View Post
Is it finally bursting or just a blip? 58% drop seems huge.

New condo sales plunge in Toronto as would-be buyers get priced out

Meanwhile, sales of condo units in Montreal rises 14% compare to last year.
As many have said, Toronto seems to be about six months behind Vancouver. Both are facing the same problems with costs.
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  #9362  
Old Posted Mar 27, 2019, 9:22 PM
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New report today in the Sun. It is now estimated that foreigners own at staggering $75 BILLION in real estae in GV and a a whopping $34 BILLION in Vancouver city alone. The real estate cartel has said they only own about 2-3% of homes but new CMHC data crunching shows it at 11.4%. Remember also that these stats don't include all the Chinese who have bought their citizenship in the last few years who now own several homes nor does it include the many who get their relatives in Vancouver to buy their homes for them to avoid the foreign buyers tax.

Home sales are down substantially across the board in every sector and area of Metro compared to last year and remember for Greater Vancouver, sales last year were the worse they have been since 2000. Prices are falling rapidly and inventory slowly building up 40% from this time last year.

This is not a housing correction but rather a biblical one and the fun is just getting started. The Chinese house flippers who buy and turn around and sell them 6 months or a year later are losing their shirts and I am happy for it. Unfortunately for the average Vancouverite who has had no option but to pay these massive amounts for a shack are losing their equity as well and anyone who had to buy in the last 2 years is already under water.
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  #9363  
Old Posted Mar 28, 2019, 2:11 AM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
As many have said, Toronto seems to be about six months behind Vancouver. Both are facing the same problems with costs.
It's an interesting story but I'd like to see if March numbers continue that trend. February was also unusually cold; nearly every line of business that involved leaving the house had lower than usual sales.

50% is a big dip though, even with weather.
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  #9364  
Old Posted Mar 28, 2019, 2:19 AM
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Originally Posted by rbt View Post
It's an interesting story but I'd like to see if March numbers continue that trend. February was also unusually cold; nearly every line of business that involved leaving the house had lower than usual sales.

50% is a big dip though, even with weather.
The weather was just as terrible in Montreal, if not worst, and yet... But we’ll see.
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  #9365  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2019, 12:40 AM
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Vancouver just had its worst March since 1986.
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  #9366  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2019, 1:34 AM
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As many have said, Toronto seems to be about six months behind Vancouver. Both are facing the same problems with costs.
I don't know about that. Toronto, even with declines recently in Vancouver, is still a staggering 40% cheaper than Vancouver. Toronto is growing much faster than Vancouver so there are some fundamentals there.

Vancouver on the other hand has a housing market that is completely detached from both the local economy and wages. If Vancouver had a housing market based upon local economics, the market would not be collapsing as it currently is as population growth is decent and the city has full employment.

There is the impact of slightly higher interest rates and the CMHC stress test but they are modest. Vancouver's real estate market, and hence a good chunk of it's economy, is determined by what the Chinese government does and not the Canadian one. With the Chinese cracking down on money flowing out of the economy and BC also finally starting to slow it's impact, prices are falling and sales are anemic. The spat between Beijing and Ottawa is also turning off many Chinese and I even say a piece on BNN and the guy said that he has heard rumours of Beijing demanding all Chinese to liquidate their Canadian property holdings as another consequence of the Huawei affair a la canola. If that happened Vancouver real estate would go into a major depression with a very good chance of price declines of 50% or more.
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  #9367  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2019, 2:51 AM
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A benefit of pissing off China, bringing Vancouver back to reality!
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  #9368  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2019, 4:32 AM
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Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal View Post
Vancouver just had its worst March since 1986.
As if that stat isn't bad enough, inventory continues to rise and is at highs not seen in years. Yes, this has been the worst March since 1986 which is very bad in and of itself but positively horrific when you consider that Vancouver has about 40% more people than it did in 1986.
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  #9369  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2019, 6:19 PM
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A benefit of pissing off China, bringing Vancouver back to reality!
Yeah, I say "bring it". It's the only way to reset prices to be in sync with local incomes.
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  #9370  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2019, 7:20 PM
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Yeah, I say "bring it". It's the only way to reset prices to be in sync with local incomes.
That'll be interesting. If real-estate prices drop that much, then local incomes will likely drop a bit too as people push off retirement and those in construction hunt for work in new fields.

It'll be interesting to see where they meet up.
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  #9371  
Old Posted Apr 5, 2019, 7:03 PM
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IMF says Canada's housing markets still in danger of major price drops:

Canada’s biggest real estate markets are still at high risk of a sudden home price drop, according to a new global report by the International Monetary Fund, published this week.

The risk of a major price correction has increased over the past few years to a level not seen since the 2008 financial crisis that caused the U.S. sub-prime housing crash.

While the States bore the brunt of that housing bubble bursting in 2008, it’s now Canadian cities that are much more vulnerable to a correction, including Vancouver, Toronto, Hamilton and Calgary, said the report....


https://www.vancourier.com/real-esta...imf-1.23782201
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  #9372  
Old Posted Apr 5, 2019, 10:03 PM
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New report today in the Sun. It is now estimated that foreigners own at staggering $75 BILLION in real estae in GV and a a whopping $34 BILLION in Vancouver city alone. The real estate cartel has said they only own about 2-3% of homes but new CMHC data crunching shows it at 11.4%. Remember also that these stats don't include all the Chinese who have bought their citizenship in the last few years who now own several homes nor does it include the many who get their relatives in Vancouver to buy their homes for them to avoid the foreign buyers tax.

Home sales are down substantially across the board in every sector and area of Metro compared to last year and remember for Greater Vancouver, sales last year were the worse they have been since 2000. Prices are falling rapidly and inventory slowly building up 40% from this time last year.

This is not a housing correction but rather a biblical one and the fun is just getting started. The Chinese house flippers who buy and turn around and sell them 6 months or a year later are losing their shirts and I am happy for it. Unfortunately for the average Vancouverite who has had no option but to pay these massive amounts for a shack are losing their equity as well and anyone who had to buy in the last 2 years is already under water.
https://info.bcassessment.ca/propert.../province-wide

For 2019 the total value of BC Real Estate is $1.99 trillion.
For Greater Vancouver its $947 billion. So your numbers are less than 10% of total real estate. Lets not capitalize for exaggeration.

And I believe the numbers your quoting count if one of the owners is foreign. So this counts places where foreigners may be a partner or only have partial ownership as being fully owned by them which heavily changes the numbers. Many Canadians have foreign partners and a lot of commercial real estate is owned by multiple parties.

Americans own a ton of Canadian Real Estate and we own a ton of theirs. British own a surprisingly large amount of GV real estate as well. Foreign ownership numbers in GV are way less than most major world cities and how low the rate of foreign ownership is in Vancouver is surprising. In America more than 10 cities have higher rates of foreign purchases than us with Miami at one time being at 50%.
Lets not manipulate numbers to create a narrative then say its all Chinese? Last census put the Chinese ethnicity homeowners of Vancouver around 20%. Don't manipulate numbers to justify your racism. And my last point, once someone has Canadian citizenship they are as Canadian as you, if you think its too easy to be Canadian blame your government not them. No Canadian is better than another Canadian. Thank you. Lets all work together to fight far right wing extremism and base our policies on facts not propaganda or populism. We've always held ourselves up as being better than America when it comes to racism, yet somehow we've let it become ok to be anti-asian.

Some interesting information below:





Last edited by misher; Apr 5, 2019 at 10:22 PM.
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  #9373  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2019, 5:52 AM
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hows this thread been gooing since 2011
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  #9374  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2019, 6:38 AM
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hows this thread been gooing since 2011
Still waiting for it to burst.
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  #9375  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2019, 4:05 PM
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Still waiting for it to burst.
indeed so bizzar
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  #9376  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2019, 5:25 PM
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  #9377  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2019, 5:59 AM
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Chinese real estate investors wary of Vancouver head to Toronto

Natalie Wong and Natalie Obiko Pearson, Bloomberg News

Chinese investment in Vancouver commercial property from companies such as Anbang Insurance Group Co. has slumped amid a flood of regulations, with investors looking to Toronto instead.

Asian investments in Vancouver fell to almost $350 million in 2018, a drop from the $1 billion-plus that hit the market in each of the two prior years, according to data from CBRE Ltd. In contrast, Toronto took in $526 million of Asian investment last year, up slightly from 2017, including a $256 million purchase of an office building by Chinese private investor Tigra Vista Inc.

Chinese investors are retreating globally following government restrictions on capital outflows in 2016. In Vancouver, Asian investment dropped off even more last year due in part to a series of new taxes instituted by the government, including a speculation and wealth tax on homes. The province has also proposed a bill to expose hidden land owners -- both residential and commercial -- and failure to disclose may result in a fine of C$100,000 or 15 percent of the property’s assessed value, whichever is greater, is driving away some investors.

“You have policy changes on a snap, on a whim,” David Ho, executive vice president at CBRE Ltd., said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Vancouver office. “Investors typically look at stability in a market and this is not stability.”

The numbers provided by CBRE are only based on known buyers though many “go to great lengths to protect their identities and remain confidential,” the brokerage firm said.


Ho focuses on bringing in new Asian capital to North American cities and while 90 percent of his business was in Vancouver last year, he predicts the city may account for only a fraction of the foreign capital this year with more deals done in Toronto. In total, Asian capital flows are projected to take up less than 20 percent of Vancouver’s commercial market, said Vancouver-based CBRE broker Tony Quattrin, compared to over 25 percent in the past three years.

...

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/chinese-...onto-1.1241534
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  #9378  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2019, 4:28 PM
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That article is surprisingly rubbishy for Bloomberg. To insinuate commercial investment dropped off in Vancouver because of the Speculation and Vacancy taxes (both on residential property) is silly. Even the Beneficial Ownership law would have little effect on the buyers of commercial property, as buyers at such a scale are usually well-known entities anyway. Sounds like an article planted by the real estate industry.

This quote made me laugh: “You have policy changes on a snap, on a whim,” David Ho, executive vice president at CBRE Ltd., said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Vancouver office. “Investors typically look at stability in a market and this is not stability.”

LOL, ask Anbang about governments that change their policies on a whim and a snap! Why does he think so many Mainland Chinese were trying to get their money out of China in the first place?
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  #9379  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2019, 6:28 AM
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Calgary sees largest decline in house prices of 11 major Canadian cities


Teranet-National Bank index finds prices down 2.8% from last year and 7% from their peak back in October 2014
Robson Fletcher · CBC News · Posted: Apr 12, 2019

Prices for single-family homes in the Calgary metropolitan area declined for the ninth straight month in March, according to a regular analysis of real estate across 11 major markets in Canada.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index tracks house prices based on data collected from public land registries and limited to homes that have been sold at least twice.

While prices softened in March in most markets tracked by the index, only Calgary and Vancouver are lower now than they were a year ago.

Calgary's index is down 2.8 per cent compared to March 2018, while Vancouver's is down 2.1 per cent.



...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...tate-1.5095821
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  #9380  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2019, 4:42 PM
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From yesterday's Globe & Mail. This slump is going to be longer and deeper than many imagine. You would have to be crazy to buy now, except for Ottawa or Montreal. If the Tories win in October, expect Ottawa to stall as well.

Canadian home prices drop for sixth straight month in March

Canadian home prices fell in March for the sixth straight month as most major markets weakened, data showed on Friday.

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed prices fell 0.3 per cent last month from February.

It was just the second March decline in the index’s 20-year history – the only other March fall was in 2009 amid a recession during the global financial crisis, Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist at National Bank of Canada, said in a news release.

Prices fell in seven of the 11 markets in the index...


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real...onth-in-march/
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