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  #141  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2020, 6:03 AM
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I'd rather have him donate money towards a world-class planetarium or zoo, or some other family-friendly mega-attraction with multiple uses (touristic, educational, etc.).
I agree! Those all would be great!
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  #142  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2020, 6:33 AM
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Originally Posted by enragedcamel View Post
I'd rather have him donate money towards a world-class planetarium or zoo, or some other family-friendly mega-attraction with multiple uses (touristic, educational, etc.).
Agreed. How about a world class art museum!

I secretly dream of the Erwin Center being saved and turned into a modern art museum (with a new facade obviously), although that would be a weird centerpiece for a new medical district. I just love the cylindrical shape of the building, there's nothing else like it in Austin.

As for observation wheels....they seem to be hot stuff in big cities right now, I think one could do well here. Especially on the south side of the river. Maybe as a centerpiece of the redeveloped South Shore district?
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  #143  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2020, 7:14 PM
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A lot has changed since this thread was last bumped.

Austin will continue to have quite a few towers U/C heading into the Great Virus Recession. We have 14 300'+ towers with financing underway with demo, site prep or construction. Plus, we have a lot of other significant projects underway like Block 164, the courthouse, Hilton Garden Inn and the Capitol Complex. Although I wouldn't be surprised if one of the 14 on the list - The Avenue - took a pause after demo just because it's a hotel.

I think it's pretty safe to say that no more large hotels or projects with a hotel component will be breaking ground any time soon. I also think we're at the end of speculative office tower groundbreakings. But I think we could still see a couple of residential towers break ground. The likely candidates based on where they are in the permitting process are the Travis and the Linden. We were not going to see a lot of major groundbreakings during 2020 anyway just because a lot of the tallest proposals were not far enough along in getting City approval.

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Last edited by The ATX; Mar 16, 2020 at 12:08 AM.
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  #144  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 5:44 AM
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Is it safe to assume the following proposed hotels will be delayed?

CitizenM hotel
Motto Hotel by Hilton
Cambria Hotel on Rainey
12th and Red River Hotel
Fairfield Inn and Suites on Rainey

What about the Convention Center and airport expansions? The convention business and air travel are going to be way down for several months.
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  #145  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 6:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Geographer View Post
Is it safe to assume the following proposed hotels will be delayed?

CitizenM hotel
Motto Hotel by Hilton
Cambria Hotel on Rainey
12th and Red River Hotel
Fairfield Inn and Suites on Rainey

What about the Convention Center and airport expansions? The convention business and air travel are going to be way down for several months.
Those hotels and the awesome River St. Hotel and Market proposal along with 90 Rainey are dead as previously proposed. The CC and ABIA expansion may still happen as planned IMO.
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  #146  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 6:13 AM
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Why do you think 90 Rainey is dead? It's mostly residential.
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  #147  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 6:22 AM
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It's not dead, see my post in the 90 Rainey thread. It's only dead as previously proposed with over 400 hotel rooms. They will either shorten the tower or covert the hotel rooms to residential. We are probably three weeks away from getting more info from the new site plan.
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  #148  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 3:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geographer View Post
Is it safe to assume the following proposed hotels will be delayed?

CitizenM hotel
Motto Hotel by Hilton
Cambria Hotel on Rainey
12th and Red River Hotel
Fairfield Inn and Suites on Rainey

What about the Convention Center and airport expansions? The convention business and air travel are going to be way down for several months.
I wouldn't be too quick to call all of these projects delayed or dead. Yes, the economy will take a hit, but it's not due to fundamental problems in the economy. It's a sudden hiatus in demand due to a public health issue. Plus, money is super cheap to borrow and there are no liquidity issues with the major banks.

This is not like anything we've ever seen in modern history. Once the virus issues work their way out, we could see things snap back fairly quickly because of pent up demand. We don't know.
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  #149  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2020, 4:09 PM
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Originally Posted by paul78701 View Post
I wouldn't be too quick to call all of these projects delayed or dead. Yes, the economy will take a hit, but it's not due to fundamental problems in the economy. It's a sudden hiatus in demand due to a public health issue. Plus, money is super cheap to borrow and there are no liquidity issues with the major banks.

This is not like anything we've ever seen in modern history. Once the virus issues work their way out, we could see things snap back fairly quickly because of pent up demand. We don't know.
Agreed. This needs to be the final 3 sentences of every discussion about this situation.

Of course there will be carnage. With that comes pent up demand and opportunities. We will get through this, if anything we are adaptable.
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  #150  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 6:08 AM
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Originally Posted by urbancore View Post
Agreed. This needs to be the final 3 sentences of every discussion about this situation.

Of course there will be carnage. With that comes pent up demand and opportunities. We will get through this, if anything we are adaptable.
Yes, there is always opportunity within crisis.

File under "wow, this crisis couldn't have happened at better time": Alex Jones.
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  #151  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 2:45 AM
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The world has changed, and we are in a recession which makes for a good reason to bump this thread.

Of the 40+ proposed 300+ foot towers in the pipeline, which ones stand the best chance of breaking ground?
The first one to break ground was 2400 Seton. But that was financed before the pandemic shutdown.
The Waterloo Hotel seems to be the next one, but that was also most likely financed before the recession.
Of all the 300'+ towers proposed, only the Travis has an approved site plan (Not counting anything with WeWork's name attached,). I'm less confident in that project than I was a couple months ago. But I'll keep that project on my list of "Most Likely to Happen 300'+ Projects" which is in no particular order:

Travis Tower #1
Symphony Square
The Linden
Domain IV
BBVA Tower (321 W. 6th St.)
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  #152  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 3:02 AM
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I believe BBVA and 5C are both funded, so I have faith in those. Probably all of the Domain Towers will be fine. The Linden seems stable.
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  #153  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 4:05 AM
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What recession?? i am a liberal super democrat but what recession are we in? The stock market seems to be rising.
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  #154  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 5:30 AM
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Originally Posted by clubtokyo View Post
What recession?? i am a liberal super democrat but what recession are we in? The stock market seems to be rising.
Yeah, I have to second that....The housing market (in Austin) is stable and cut throat to put it gently.
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  #155  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 5:31 AM
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Originally Posted by clubtokyo View Post
What recession?? i am a liberal super democrat but what recession are we in? The stock market seems to be rising.
I'm not a Democrat, but colors aside, I think the republic of Texas has a great economy and is diversified enough to be almost recession-proof. The stock market really isn't a great barometer of the economy anymore like in the past. These are weird times and with apps like Robinhood you have many millennials and novice traders taking a gamble because they're bored and it's the thing to do right now.
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  #156  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by clubtokyo View Post
What recession?? i am a liberal super democrat but what recession are we in? The stock market seems to be rising.
I don't think recession is the right word. CRE is walking a tightrope right now, if that goes it will take many businesses with it. Urban office/financial/retail districts are not producing income. Massive small biz/restaurants failure.

Stocks are up bc this is good for wall st. Main st....notsomuch

As is typical Austin is doing much better than natl average.
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  #157  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2020, 3:00 PM
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You don't have to be a Democrat to see the recession -- it's not a partisan issue. Besides the stock market (which has become unlinked from the rest of the economy) all of the indicators point to a nationwide downturn much worse than 2008. Austin is shielded better than almost any other city in the country, so we haven't seen the downsides yet. We may NEVER see it, but we also may just be late to the party.

IMO we may be saved by our place on the tech ladder -- JUST below the major coastal cities. We're one of the next obvious choices if a company decides to reduce its exposure to SF or NYC, etc. Everyone fleeing everywhere else may decide we're the place to land. I think that may be one of the reasons demand -- esp for residential of all stripes -- is still going on.

All that said -- I think there's a good chance that residential towers (rental or condo) will get funding. So I think you'll see Hanover 3rd and Brazos move forward. Maybe 56 East moves forward. I think you might also see, as we saw with 70 Rainey, towers start to rebalance what's going into them. Maybe 4th and Brazos reconstitutes itself as twin rental towers, as a for instance.

I also actually think the hotels along East Ave (Cambria, Fairfield Inn and Suites) might move forward. Hotels aren't all tanking -- limited service brands are seeing major gains at the moment. It may still be too much for a new build near a city center, but I wouldn't count those out just yet.
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  #158  
Old Posted Sep 2, 2020, 12:40 AM
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I will be extremely happy if we can roll through the recession and still get:

Travis Tower #1
Symphony Square
The Linden
Domain IV
BBVA Tower
Tower 5c
Waterloo Hotel
Broadmoor Tower/Train Station

I've said previously I think we'll have to wait for recession to ease AND the project connect plans to get passed/moving before we'll see The Republic/Post Office Block and the Railyard project get started. Then I think residential stuff like The Market on Rainey, 90 Rainey, 3rd and Brazos and Travis #2 will get pushed maybe one or two years by market forces/lack of available capital, but will eventually happen. The massive offices like 4th and Brazos, Block 16, and We Work's project are things I think most likely to bust/get delayed 5 years by this downturn.

I'll also add that Austin has always been blessed with two massive economic engines that do not turn off in UT-Austin and Texas State government. That means that West Campus residential projects, UT Medical School expansion, The Capitol Complex Phase 2 and likely the Brackenridge Hospital redevelopment will all probably continue as normal right through the recession. Those are all satellite projects around downtown but in 5 years downtown will feel much denser because of them.

Last edited by Maximusx1; Sep 2, 2020 at 1:08 AM.
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  #159  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2020, 2:19 AM
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These lists are based solely on permit and City Boards/Commissions activity and what I have observed over the years that I have paying attention to this stuff. In other words, just my opinion.

300'+ tall projects with healthy permit activity during the pandemic and a hopeful future:

84 East - Last activity September 2020
90 Rainey - Last activity October 2020
River Street Residences - Last activity October 2020
Hanover Brazos Street - Last Activity October 2020
Broadmoor Block L - Last Activity August 2020
Union on 24th - Last activity October 2020
Block 16 - Last activity August 2020
The Linden - Recent permit activity related to groundbreaking


300'+ projects that may have caught Covid and don't look good at this point:

14th & Guadalupe - No activity since June 2020
4th & Brazos (2nd 800'+ tower) - No activity since June 2020
BBVA Bank Tower - No activity since July 2020
Tower 5C - No activity since June 2020
Ikon - No activity on site plan since April 2019 and ePlan expired in July 2020
Travis - No activity since site plan approved in August 2020
All four WeCo/Lincoln/Kairoi Towers including Block 190 - No activity since Covid pandemic started
Symphony Square - Mixed signals - seeking second Dr.'s opinion
The Republic - Has been in nursing home for quite some time
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Last edited by The ATX; Oct 26, 2020 at 2:42 AM.
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  #160  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2020, 3:30 AM
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Thanks for the update!
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