The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Wow, not sure how legitimate this is but, here it goes...

Alberta to warm faster than the rest of the planet..

I did not read the report, so maybe it is just terrible journalism, spreading misinformation. I mean, I didn’t think global warming changes so much at such restricted areas, such as provincial borders... I obviously have a lot to learn if so!

“
Alberta will warm faster than the rest of the planet because of human activity, causing a range of profound impacts on the province’s economy, infrastructure and public health, says a new report, prepared by climate scientists and published on a provincial government website.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/6600989/a...mpression=true

Awesome. A warmer Alberta would have more arable land, higher agricultural productivity, more precipitation and overall a more attractive climate.

Not sure what the point is to mislead in suggesting that AB's higher than average GHG emissions will result in higher than average warming and higher than average bad events.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Hey. I've said I'm okay with letting our Prairie brethren build whatever they want. I just want a deal where they foresake future bailouts when the inevitable happens. If they bet the farm, why should we backstop their losses when there was decades of warning against their strategy?

Any Albertan or Saskatchewan who truly believes that oil and gas will last for another half century at least should have no issues signing up for that deal. And if it goes bust, we treat you guys like the Maritimes and depopulate.

You are reversed. What is Canada's strategy if the AB cash cow disappears? How will Canada manage the business cycle without the shock absorber of AB's countercyclical economy?

Don't waste words with any "OK Boomer" or "denier" crap.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Doug

You are reversed. What is Canada's strategy if the AB cash cow disappears? How will Canada manage the business cycle without the shock absorber of AB's countercyclical economy?

Don't waste words with any "OK Boomer" or "denier" crap.

People outside of the oil patch are encouraging Alberta to put more effort into diversifying before it's too late. Stop doubling down on fossil fuel. Stop blaming Trudeau for everything. Stop electing clowns like Kenney, with policies proven not to work.

[headhorse]

again, Albertans are so unempowered and brainwashed that they only believe that they can work and make money in oil and gas. no self respect, it’s sad to see.

[Hackslack]

What is Winnipeg & Manitoba diversely invested in that makes it a Have province?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

People outside of the oil patch are encouraging Alberta to put more effort into diversifying before it's too late. Stop doubling down on fossil fuel. Stop blaming Trudeau for everything. Stop electing clowns like Kenney, with policies proven not to work.

It is possible to walk and chew gum at the same time. Removing barriers to growth in energy production do not preclude encouraging development of other segments. The whole "doubling down on oil" argument is empty.

Kenney is taking the only possible first step in reducing dependence on oil and gas: downsizing and decomensating the public sector whose existence is largely funded by resource revenues.

Trudeau is to absolutely to blame for all aspects that are controllable:
-negative signals to investors around phasing out the oilsands or achieving net zero ensissions, which is impossible under foreseeable technology
-emboldening indigenous rights activists with empty and often impossible promises
-failure to implement rule of law when faced with clearly illegal protests. The government cannot direct law enforcement to take particular action, but it can hold law enforcement accountable to take some form of action, and pledge support of law enforcement if things turn ugly
-failing to remove political considerations from regulatory approvals. The whole point of an arm's length regulator is to insulate the process from political whims
-failure to adjust the ridiculous equalization formula whose gamed fiscal capacity formula somehow determines that AB's ability to raise revenue continues to increase while its GDP decreases
-failure to pursue advance court rulings on issues such as indigenous land claims to reduce uncertainty
-continuing to ramp federal deficits with no tangible outcomes, which only contributes to negative investor sentiment
-failure to address competitive issues relative to the US in terms of corporate and personal taxes, which again hits investor confidence

The only factors outside Trudeau's control are middling market pricing for oil and low pricing for gas

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Doug

Kenney is taking the only possible first step in reducing dependence on oil and gas: downsizing and decomensating the public sector whose existence is largely funded by resource revenues.

Public sector employees are full participants in the economy. This is a "problem" that has been building for generations. This is not the way to fix it.

Originally Posted by Doug

<cut a bunch of highly partisan rhetoric>

The only factors outside Trudeau's control are middling market pricing for oil and low pricing for gas

The world market pricing is everything. Everything.

The NDP had Alberta on a better path.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

People outside of the oil patch are encouraging Alberta to put more effort into diversifying before it's too late.

Alberta isn't much less diversified than BC. Alberta is about as diversified as you can get given that it only has 4.5M people, no coast line (and therefore far away from all of the major population centres in North America) and a very good industry in oil and gas.



https://www.wd-deo.gc.ca/eng/243.asp

[Doug]

6

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Public sector employees are full participants in the economy. This is a "problem" that has been building for generations. This is not the way to fix it.




The world market pricing is everything. Everything.

The NDP had Alberta on a better path.

Wages comprise the majority of government spending. It is impossible to balance the budget without payroll constraint. Everybody is a participant in the economy. Hitting public sector emoyees who have above market pay, benefits, vacation, retirement plans and job security is the least painful path forward.

World oil prices aren't slowing investment outside Canada.

The NDP only delayed the inevitable and dug a deeper hole. The government must balance the budget and restore the investment climate. It was done in the 90's and can be done again. Too bad Klein never implemented right to work.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Wow, not sure how legitimate this is but, here it goes...

Alberta to warm faster than the rest of the planet..

I've read a few articles/postings which collected articles showing how every place in the world seems to be warming faster than the rest of the planet.

This article listed the alarming impacts on Alberta, seems more of a win some, lose some. The most concerning would probably be the change in precipitation patterns, though Alberta isn't known for being consistent as it is.

• A 2 C increase in average winter and a 1.5 C increase in average summer temperature.
• An increase of about 3 C in the temperature of the coldest day of the year and an increase of about 2 C in the temperature of the warmest day of the year.
• A two-week lengthening of the frost-free season, and between a two- to four-week lengthening of the growing season, with greater changes for more southern locations.
• A five to 10 per cent increase in precipitation between September and April, with between five to 10 per cent more falling as rain compared to snow.
• A 50 per cent increase in the number of very wet days (more than 25mm in 24 hours) and a 20 per cent increase the amount of precipitation on the wettest day of the year.
• Proportional decreases in heating degree-days and increases in growing degree-days and other cumulative heating indices.

[SaskScraper]

^ That's quite thought provoking, but not all bad news for Alberta if more arable land becomes available & more crop varieties able to grow with a longer season.

Alberta & Saskatchewan don't have ocean coastline so won't be affected or have to worry as much as what other provinces will have to battle in the future with climate change & oceans rising.

That said, the Winter for 2020 has been at or below normal temps for almost the entire province of Saskatchewan.

Precipitation in the form of snow has been somewhat low on average. Saskatoon had as much as half a foot of snow accumulation at one point this Winter
Regina & Moose Jaw had no more than an inch of snow on the ground at any one time this Winter though.

Going into March & Spring time, Canada looks to have not unexpected snow amounts for this time of year.

Originally Posted by Doug

Wages comprise the majority of government spending. It is impossible to balance the budget without payroll constraint. Everybody is a participant in the economy. Hitting public sector emoyees who have above market pay, benefits, vacation, retirement plans and job security is the least painful path forward.

World oil prices aren't slowing investment outside Canada.

The NDP only delayed the inevitable and dug a deeper hole. The government must balance the budget and restore the investment climate. It was done in the 90's and can be done again. Too bad Klein never implemented right to work.

Hopefully the next time oil cycles into higher prices & Alberta booms, the province will set up higher reserve funds. No sense being a have-not province like Manitoba east.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

Hopefully the next time oil cycles into higher prices & Alberta booms, the province will set up higher reserve funds. No sense being a have-not province like Manitoba east.

I used to believe that. If AB were sitting on big cash reserves, it would become a target, both by the rest of Canada and by the province's own public sector employees. As journalist Jen Gerson stated: "Let me ask: if you lived in a country where a plurality believed resource royalties more properly belonged to the nation as a whole rather than the province, how tempted would you be to save it? Do you stuff your piggy bank if you don’t trust your parents not to knick it". Heading into the financial crisis, AB had $17B in its Sustainability Fund. Rather than constrain spending to stretch out the Sustainability Fund, it depleted it over about 5 years.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Doug

You are reversed. What is Canada's strategy if the AB cash cow disappears? How will Canada manage the business cycle without the shock absorber of AB's countercyclical economy?

Don't waste words with any "OK Boomer" or "denier" crap.

Canada will be just fine. Sure, it'll be an adjustment. And there will be some economic pain. But we're going to have actually start thinking about developing an advanced economy.

Anybody who thinks the oil sands and are going to keep printing big bucks forever deserves what's coming to them. Heck, beer flu helped for a great pay off betting against Canadian oil this week.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Doug

You are reversed. What is Canada's strategy if the AB cash cow disappears? How will Canada manage the business cycle without the shock absorber of AB's countercyclical economy?

Don't waste words with any "OK Boomer" or "denier" crap.

You're writing a false narrative. Why would the "cash cow" disappear? No one who is anyone is going to shutdown the oil sands. Even if there was zero new production, the production would still go on, it would still be part of our GDP and we will still get the tax revenue, the cash cow will still exist. But there will be new production as soon as the pipelines open, so the cash cow will indeed get bigger. At this point though, many of us think that remortgaging the house to buy another cow, and injecting it with steroids while milk prices are in the toilet just might not be a good idea.

[Chadillaccc]

That is a fabulous analogy! I'm dying.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by milomilo

You're writing a false narrative. Why would the "cash cow" disappear? No one who is anyone is going to shutdown the oil sands. Even if there was zero new production, the production would still go on, it would still be part of our GDP and we will still get the tax revenue, the cash cow will still exist. But there will be new production as soon as the pipelines open, so the cash cow will indeed get bigger. At this point though, many of us think that remortgaging the house to buy another cow, and injecting it with steroids while milk prices are in the toilet just might not be a good idea.

No mortgage required. Get out of the way of private capital buying the cows.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by headhorse

again, Albertans are so unempowered and brainwashed that they only believe that they can work and make money in oil and gas. no self respect, it’s sad to see.

I'm just curious, what gives you the authority to speak for a population of 4.4 million individuals? Because your comment is... well it's a lot of things, including stupid, incorrect, and ignorant, among many other laughable things.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

That is a fabulous analogy! I'm dying.

Glad you liked it!

Originally Posted by Doug

No mortgage required. Get out of the way of private capital buying the cows.

Well, sounds like Kenney has at least been to the bank to get a pre-approval on some mangy looking heifers that no one else wants to buy, even if he hasn't committed yet...

Oil prices are low and there is no pipeline capacity, for reasons that were not really in the current government's control. So even if someone was "in the way", we wouldn't be building more production right now. And I'm not sure that the idea that government is holding things back bears much scrutiny. With Frontier, it was Teck that pulled the plug, not the government, and the reason they cited was needing more clarity on how climate change would be factored in to decisions. So it sounds like the government needs to have done more work on that, rather than the status quo decision making process that brought us the TMX delay.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

I'm just curious, what gives you the authority to speak for a population of 4.4 million individuals? Because your comment is... well it's a lot of things, including stupid, incorrect, and ignorant, among many other laughable things.

Easier to just ignore comments like that. No good will ever come of trying to fight it.

[jawagord]

Much like Australia's wildfires, most of Alberta's wildfires have human causes unrelated to climate change, now that's an old story for most of Canada and the US, but something to keep in mind when the climate fear-mongers come out later in the year.

A campaign began in 1944 featuring Smokey and the slogan "Smokey Says – Care Will Prevent 9 out of 10 Forest Fires". His slogan changed to "Remember... Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires" in 1947 and was associated with Smokey Bear for more than five decades.

-------------------------------------------

The beginning of wildfire season in Alberta has officials reminding the public that more than 70 per cent are human-caused and completely preventable.

Last fire season, 989 wildfires burned more than 883,411 hectares in Alberta, marking one of the most destructive seasons in history. The five-year average for the province is just above 245,000 hectares, meaning last year more than tripled that average.

“Most wildfires are preventable,” Agriculture and Forestry Minister Devin Dreeshen said in a statement.

“More than 70 per cent of Alberta wildfires last year were caused by humans and the McMillan wildfire near Slave Lake was started by arson. We will continue to promote prevention, provide adequate funding and improvements to forest management.”

Human caused wildfires include those started by an out-of-control bonfire or spark from an off-highway vehicle. Dry grass, twigs, leaves and branches then fuel fast-moving grass fires, which can expand greatly and cause massive environmental damage.

Wildfire season in Alberta begins a month earlier than other jurisdictions, on March 1, and runs until the end of October.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...-season-begins