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  #45161  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 4:37 AM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
Supply induced demand? You actually think people are moving to Logan Square because they are building TOD there? Lol...

Listen, nobody moves places because big new buildings are being built, big new buildings are built because people want to live there. All this is going to do is massively accelerate price gains. I'm already seeing $800k+ SFH sales in Avondale where there has been categorically no large scale new construction. At this rate I expect to start seeing $1mil+ sales in the next couple of years.

Wait....what now? Are you serious? You authentically do not believe in a supply-induced demand effect?

That's crazy.

Of course it's a real phenomenon. Happens across real estate markets, be they office space, apartments, hotels, retail, logistics...what have you.

In some cases it may only be at the margin. In other cases, it's more significant in terms of overall market impact. There will typically be somewhat greater absorption, all else being equal, with incrementally larger amounts of new supply.

I'm not by any means a supply-sider in terms of my economic worldview, but I don't deny the existence of legitimate supply-side phenomena.

Again, in a lot of cases, this can be more at the margin.

It's interesting though that you gave such a great example, that I can use to illustrate my point. Logan Square - and all the new TOD, smaller-unit apartment developments. The fact that all those new units are coming online has absolutely pushed up unit absorption in recent years in that neighborhood. Unquestionably. This one isn't even at the margin....this is somewhat more substantial. Just think about it for two minutes. These options now exist in considerably larger numbers than they did just 4 or 5 years ago. And, they are attracting a lot more of certain demographic slices of the population, significant proportion of which previously wouldn't have considered - or would have given much less weight in search for housing to the neighborhood. These added choices in the form of this new product induces an absorption level in Logan Square that is somewhat above and beyond what it would be without them - hands down.

In the long-term, supply constraints (whatever form they take - physical, political, etc) certainly help to drive up price appreciation faster than would otherwise be the case - however, in the short-to even the-medium term, new construction itself (through this supply-induced demand effect) can sometimes actually play a role (again varies widely depending on a large number of variables) in driving up rent growth even faster - believe it or not. Again, back to your Logan Square example - this new type of construction is adding Milwaukee corridor buzz and foot traffic, and with it additional retail and restaurant options, thus helping to drive up overall Logan Square housing prices in the near-to-medium term above and beyond what the already strong appreciation would have been absent this new TOD investment. Again, long-term, perhaps a different story. But, this is one example of demand inducement from new supply at work.
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Last edited by SamInTheLoop; Jun 12, 2019 at 4:51 PM.
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  #45162  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 12:50 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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What’s up with the Apple store redo?

Did the stairs and walkway get too damaged from overuse or did they decide it needs a make over?
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  #45163  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 12:56 PM
ChiPlanner ChiPlanner is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
What’s up with the Apple store redo?

Did the stairs and walkway get too damaged from overuse or did they decide it needs a make over?
All the trees they planted immediately died
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  #45164  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 1:17 PM
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^^^ That tends to happen when trees are planted in a few inches of dirt and then covered over with concrete. It's almost as if trees need massive quantities of water or something.
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  #45165  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 2:12 PM
Via Chicago Via Chicago is offline
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it also happens when planting is immediately followed by a winter that gets down to -35F. dont underestimate the cold we had, there are a LOT stressed/dead trees all over the city this spring, and if it was a sapling without an established root system (or non-native) it was especially vulnerable. sadly it dosent seem like the city is moving fast enough to replace them either. there was a recent WBEZ article which mentioned we've actually lost 100k trees over the past decade and this most recent winter definitely will be exacerbating that. but yea, it seems like every tree the city puts in near downtown is surrounded by concrete and tends to not survive more than 5 years.
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  #45166  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 3:25 PM
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Originally Posted by rlw777 View Post
Nah that award goes to amli river north
My vote still goes to 200 N Dearborn for turkiest architectural turkey.
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  #45167  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 3:44 PM
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Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
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My vote still goes to 200 N Dearborn for turkiest architectural turkey.
oh, 200 n dearborn is a monumental turkey, no doubt, but it was built way back in 1989, so it can't be part of a "worst in the 21st" discussion.
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  #45168  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 4:11 PM
west-town-brad west-town-brad is offline
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Originally Posted by Via Chicago View Post
there was a recent WBEZ article which mentioned we've actually lost 100k trees over the past decade and this most recent winter definitely will be exacerbating that.
those trees were lost due to the Emerald Ash Borer (Illinois as a state has lost 90% of it's ash trees due to this thing)
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  #45169  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 4:16 PM
Vlajos Vlajos is offline
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Originally Posted by west-town-brad View Post
those trees were lost due to the Emerald Ash Borer (Illinois as a state has lost 90% of it's ash trees due to this thing)
Ash borer decimated some areas. The city has since done a great job saving trees though. We have six ash trees on the parkway around our house and all are doing very well.
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  #45170  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 4:18 PM
Jim in Chicago Jim in Chicago is offline
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Originally Posted by west-town-brad View Post
those trees were lost due to the Emerald Ash Borer (Illinois as a state has lost 90% of it's ash trees due to this thing)
To be more precise, WBEZ said that some of that loss can be accounted for by the Ash Borer mass removal, but not all. The real story is that not only did the city no meet the goal of adding a millions trees, they're not even replacing trees at the same number they're being removed. Trees are removed every year for all sorts for all sorts of reasons, and the city isnt keeping up.
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  #45171  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 5:07 PM
Via Chicago Via Chicago is offline
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Originally Posted by Jim in Chicago View Post
To be more precise, WBEZ said that some of that loss can be accounted for by the Ash Borer mass removal, but not all. The real story is that not only did the city no meet the goal of adding a millions trees, they're not even replacing trees at the same number they're being removed. Trees are removed every year for all sorts for all sorts of reasons, and the city isnt keeping up.
right this was my point. the goal was 1 million trees over 10 years, we planted something like 100k, and due to all the losses due to disease/age/weather on top of it, our canopy is being lost. and many of the saplings the city plants i doubt make it to maturity, simply look at how many stumps are along major commercial corridors or downtown (to say nothing of the fact that every developer chainsaws everything within a block radius every time they initiate a project). not to mention the city wont plant a parkway tree unless a resident specifically requests one

Last edited by Via Chicago; Jun 12, 2019 at 5:20 PM.
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  #45172  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 5:36 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Originally Posted by Via Chicago View Post
it also happens when planting is immediately followed by a winter that gets down to -35F. dont underestimate the cold we had, there are a LOT stressed/dead trees all over the city this spring, and if it was a sapling without an established root system (or non-native) it was especially vulnerable. sadly it dosent seem like the city is moving fast enough to replace them either. there was a recent WBEZ article which mentioned we've actually lost 100k trees over the past decade and this most recent winter definitely will be exacerbating that. but yea, it seems like every tree the city puts in near downtown is surrounded by concrete and tends to not survive more than 5 years.
Yeah, ash borer didn't do much damage to city trees, they were well treated. However, the ash trees in my neighbors yard along the alley are all dead or half deal and dropping huge branches.

The city is absolutely pathetic about planting trees. The worst part is they are dirt cheap and easy to plant if you get like 3' saplings and they tend to take root more vigorously than a juvinille tree that has had half its root ball cut off so it can be transplanted. The city could easily plant a tree in front of every building in the city for like $1 million if they just did a massive order of 3' saplings from arbor day.

One thing I always do at all my properties is make sure there's a tree planted out front in the parkway. Trees can soak up tremendous amounts of water and, given the torrential rains that seem more and more common here, we need them to drink up every drop they can.
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  #45173  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 6:04 PM
woodrow woodrow is offline
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For all the mistakes Daley the Younger made, his commitment to planting trees was impressive. Maybe Mayor Lightfoot will be interested and willing to push.
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  #45174  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 6:17 PM
Vlajos Vlajos is offline
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Originally Posted by Via Chicago View Post
right this was my point. the goal was 1 million trees over 10 years, we planted something like 100k, and due to all the losses due to disease/age/weather on top of it, our canopy is being lost. and many of the saplings the city plants i doubt make it to maturity, simply look at how many stumps are along major commercial corridors or downtown (to say nothing of the fact that every developer chainsaws everything within a block radius every time they initiate a project). not to mention the city wont plant a parkway tree unless a resident specifically requests one
Where are all the stumps? I rarely see them.
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  #45175  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 6:27 PM
Jim in Chicago Jim in Chicago is offline
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Originally Posted by Vlajos View Post
Where are all the stumps? I rarely see them.
Sometimes you won't. The people developing 717 S. Clark just mowed down all the trees for pretty much the full block and then filled in the open spots in the sidewalk with CONCRETE. Not a sign that the trees ever existed.
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  #45176  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 6:38 PM
Vlajos Vlajos is offline
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Originally Posted by Jim in Chicago View Post
Sometimes you won't. The people developing 717 S. Clark just mowed down all the trees for pretty much the full block and then filled in the open spots in the sidewalk with CONCRETE. Not a sign that the trees ever existed.
Got it, I definitely don't go to the South loop often where I imagine this is more common.
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  #45177  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 8:02 PM
Investing In Chicago Investing In Chicago is offline
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Originally Posted by Vlajos View Post
Where are all the stumps? I rarely see them.
The Southport Corridor in Lakeview is full of stumps - I counted roughly 45 trees that were removed in about a 4 block radius from my home this spring.
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  #45178  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 8:03 PM
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Sunrise photo meet (6/21)

Not sure if this is a good place to share this, but if you're interested in a photo-op, 360 Chicago and I are hosting a *sunrise* meet-up at the observatory on the solstice (Friday, June 21). Tickets are $11.50 and you can get them on Eventbrite here > https://www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-...ts-62511453440

You get sunrise access, coffee & donuts, rides on TILT, and up-and-dow access all-day so you can come back for sunset.

Full disclosure: I'm an ambassador of the observatoy so I do get paid to help plan and promote events and share the work I create from the atop the building. Regardless, I thought this might be a cool opportunity for some of the forums photographers to meet-up and shoot - though everyone is welcome!

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  #45179  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2019, 10:48 PM
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BonoboZill4 BonoboZill4 is offline
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^ I'm intrigued, but also lazy in the morning... what are the hours?
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  #45180  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2019, 12:45 AM
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^ I'm intrigued, but also lazy in the morning... what are the hours?
it's an all day ticket - I'll be stopping by before and after work. The last time I was up in the Hancock I had to listen to a 60 minute sales pitch (SSL Decryption boards).
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