Hamilton Population 2020?

[thistleclub]

New Hamilton population data set in the Ontario Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections Update, 2018-2046 (Summer 2019):

2011: 535,100
2016: 552,300
2018: 568,000
2021: 590,700
2026: 626,300
2031: 661,100
2036: 696,700
2041: 732,600
2046: 769,100

[realcity]

that looks like healthy population growth. so let's down-size (right size) our arena. Fix Copps.

[TheRitsman]

I'm not sure where they expect all these people to be going when the city denies denies denies everything worthwhile in the city.

[ScreamingViking]

Adding 7,000+ people per year is unprecedented for the city, compared to the past several decades at least.

(there was a typo in the 2046 value)

Originally Posted by thistleclub

New Hamilton population data set in the Ontario Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections Update, 2018-2046 (Summer 2019):

2011: 535,100
2016: 552,300
2018: 568,000
2021: 590,700
2026: 626,300
2031: 661,100
2036: 696,700
2041: 732,600
2046: 796,100 769,100

[HamiltonBoyInToronto]

And these are only predictions.... I personally think Hamilton will grow much faster than predicted.... There is literally nowhere else for most people who care for a decent life to live .... It's an amazing city and has a lot to offer ... We just need to stop thinking like the small town that most Hamiltonians think we still are and grow properly

[SteelTown]

Well, the answer to this thread is 807,153 as Hamilton's CMA 2020 population.


Hamilton-area population climbs to 812,000 as more leave big cities for 'smaller places'
5,375 new arrivals between 2020 and July 2021 takes city's population to 812,528, Statistics Canada says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamil...scan-1.6328426

Hamilton continues to be a city of choice for newcomers to Canada, as well as Canadians leaving bigger cities like Toronto, new data from Statistics Canada shows.

Earlier this month, the federal agency published new annual demographic estimates for subprovincial areas, with data up to July 2021.

According to the new data, 10,196 people took up residence in the Hamilton census metropolitan area — which includes Burlington and Grimsby — for the period 2018-2019 for a total population of 795,410. There were 11,743 new arrivals in 2019-2020 for a total population of 807,153. Between 2020 and July 2021, there have been 5,375 new arrivals with the area's population currently standing at 812,528.

Bruce Newbold, a professor of geography at McMaster University, said there are two big drivers of population growth in Hamilton.

"One is international migration, so people coming to Hamilton from outside of Canada, and Hamilton has long been a relatively important place for immigrant settlement," Newbold told CBC News.

"The other piece is that internal movement, and we've certainly, over the course of the pandemic, seen movement out of the big cities like Toronto and into smaller places like Hamilton."

[SteelTown]

I'm surprised we had two consecutive years with a population growth of over 10K.

[catcher_of_cats]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

I'm surprised we had two consecutive years with a population growth of over 10K.

The problem with talking about the CMA's growth is that Burlington could have been a large chunk of it. This article is essentially meaningless until the true population figures come out for Hamilton itself later this year.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by catcher_of_cats

The problem with talking about the CMA's growth is that Burlington could have been a large chunk of it.

Burlington has represented roughly half 40% of recent Hamilton CMA pop’n growth.

Net Population Growth, 2001-2016
Hamilton: 46,645
Burlington: 32,478
Grimsby: 6,017

[HamiltonBoyInToronto]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

Burlington has represented roughly half of recent Hamilton CMA pop’n growth.

Net Population Growth, 2001-2016
Hamilton: 27,673
Burlington: 32,478
Grimsby: 6,017

I'm sure that the above numbers would show that Hamilton had very little growth between the years 2001-2012 compared with Burlington...and then I would assume maybe larger growth than Burlington in the later years ... it would be interesting to see the comparison between the two during Hamilton's boom 2014ish to present

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

Burlington has represented roughly half of recent Hamilton CMA pop’n growth.

Net Population Growth, 2001-2016
Hamilton: 27,673
Burlington: 32,478
Grimsby: 6,017

That was the case for 2001 to 2016, though I believe it is no longer the case as Burlington has basically run out of new subdivision areas and is now super NIMBY for intensification, it's adding *maybe* 1,000 people a year right now. It's growth has simply fallen off a cliff.

The growth has largely spilled over into Waterdown which is accounting for a good chunk of the City of Hamilton's population growth now with all the new subdivisions going up there along Dundas St.

Similar to Grimsby, which is "subdivisioned out" and is now relying on intensification, which means a slower growth rate as people aren't willing to live in a condo in a small community like that to the same extent that they'll live there in a detached home.

I bet that when 2021 census data comes out in the next few months, it will show Hamilton as absorbing most of the CMA population growth. Which is all the more shocking given the historic trends of Hamilton being a relatively slow growth CMA and with most of what little growth was occurring going to Grimsby and Burlington.

[Innsertnamehere]

Also what is most shocking to me in that graph is the decline of natural increase from a healthy rate even 6 years ago to almost nothing this year. That should be a very concerning thing.

Also, to show how Hamilton is growing, 2016 CMA data showed the CMA at 747,000, up from 721,000 in 2011. That's a difference of 26,000 in 5 years. 2021 population estimates put us at 812,000, up 65,000 in 5 years. The growth rate has basically tripled! And atop that as I said, growth has slowed in Burlington and Grimsby over that time, meaning that the City of Hamilton's growth rate has likely increased even faster.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

That was the case for 2001 to 2016, though I believe it is no longer the case as Burlington has basically run out of new subdivision areas and is now super NIMBY for intensification, it's adding *maybe* 1,000 people a year right now. It's growth has simply fallen off a cliff.

Net Population Growth, 2001-2006
Hamilton: 14,290
Burlington: 13,579
Grimsby: 2,640

Net Population Growth, 2006-2011
Hamilton: 15,390
Burlington: 11,364
Grimsby: 1,388

Net Population Growth, 2011-2016
Hamilton: 10,885
Burlington: 7,535
Grimsby: 1,989

Hamilton's population is also 3x that of Burlington and 20x that of Grimsby.

Hamilton's growth has traditionally been powered overwhelmingly by the suburbs, so it'll be interesting to see what the 2021 Census data reveals.

[SteelTown]

We are long overdue to overtake Caledonia as part of Hamilton's CMA. I remembered a few years ago, the data for those commuting from Caledonia to Hamilton was well sufficient; however, Caledonia needs to hit 10K first, and it was like 9,999 or something so close.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

We are long overdue to overtake Caledonia as part of Hamilton's CMA. I remembered a few years ago, the data for those commuting from Caledonia to Hamilton was well sufficient; however, Caledonia needs to hit 10K first, and it was like 9,999 or something so close.

It would probably have to be all of the Census subdivision of Haldimand (45.6K residents in 2016), since Caledonia isn't recognized as its own region. West Lincoln (which has Smithville; 14.5K) might be another one to add if the CMA definition fits.

It's not really a surprise that natural increase has waned. But maybe that changes as newcomers arrive -- youngish people from the Toronto area who've invested in a home and want to start a family; immigrants from outside Canada who want to grow theirs in a good place to live; etc.

[catcher_of_cats]

Our city has traditionally missed the province's population estimates, sometimes by tens of thousands. The best thing with these forums is that you can go back 10+ years to see a posting saying that in the year 20** the population should be 5**,*** and then that year comes and we miss by say 35,000 people. It will be interesting to see how our recent building boom has effected our growth rate or if the continued aging of huge portions of the city will mute this growth.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by catcher_of_cats

Our city has traditionally missed the province's population estimates, sometimes by tens of thousands. The best thing with these forums is that you can go back 10+ years to see a posting saying that in the year 20** the population should be 5**,*** and then that year comes and we miss by say 35,000 people. It will be interesting to see how our recent building boom has effected our growth rate or if the continued aging of huge portions of the city will mute this growth.

We have, but the trends have shifted.

Previous forecasts (even as far back as the 1990s) probably relied on speculation about the city itself. And the city wasn't proactive.

Today, it's all about the region and I think Hamilton is well positioned to be a target for immigration for a long time to come, whether that be intraprovincial or international. Interprovincial seems to be the other worrisome trend but 2020-2021 is likely to be an odd year when it comes to demographic statistics.

[Innsertnamehere]

Caledonia should definitely be in the CMA however as others have mentioned it's not a separate municipality so it will have to wait until all of Haldimand County meets the commuting distance requirements. I'm not sure how close Haldimand County is to that right now.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

We have, but the trends have shifted.

Previous forecasts (even as far back as the 1990s) probably relied on speculation about the city itself. And the city wasn't proactive.

Today, it's all about the region and I think Hamilton is well positioned to be a target for immigration for a long time to come, whether that be intraprovincial or international. Interprovincial seems to be the other worrisome trend but 2020-2021 is likely to be an odd year when it comes to demographic statistics.

I think the recent increase in demand in Hamilton in recent years makes this clear. I haven't read all the reports or studies, but I do believe Hamilton was far undervalued for many, many years, and that's part of the reason why now housing prices look so crazy here. Many more people want to move here finally, and that caused an insane increase that looked like one of the worst in Canada. Hamilton was I'll prepared for the demand we've seen in the last couple of years.

[ScreamingViking]

Also, in the past I don't think there was a clear enough understanding about just how much the city's economic restructuring affected population growth, and the projections were too high because of that.

We lost SO MUCH industry, underwent SO MUCH change.

Things have turned around and the economy is now one of the most diverse in the country. There are growth sectors we didn't have before. And demand for housing is probably as high as it's ever been.

Some people say "Hamilton has never met its expected growth so why should we trust the forecasts today" and they have a good point, at least since the 1970s. But that perspective doesn't account for the other trends that we're now seeing, not just in the city but beyond it.