CHICAGO | General Discussions

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by bnk

Not sure if this is true but this article stated we passed up PA and is the 5th largest state in population again. Anyone able to confirm this?

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columni...mn-rich-miller


If true someone is going to have to edit wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

Yes, it's true Illinois with this news has more people than PA.

No you cannot edit wiki. Unfortunately they don't revise their numbers even in the face of having significant statistical counting errors in 14 states.

[thegoatman]

Chicago has the second largest Mexican population behind LA. Y'all might call this a stretch, but I guarantee (along with the undercount) with many undocumented immigrants, Chicago population either touches or exceeds 3 million plus. This city has been losing population for decades yet we've been building apartments and condos like crazy? Even previously underserved areas like the south lakefront and parts of the west side are now filling up with population. I'm seeing tear downs and new builds in ENGLEWOOD! Just wanted to give my two cents...

And Pritzker released a tweet saying Illinois population is over 13 million for the first time which is nice. Fox News is probably pissed at this news

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/statu...17252517228544

[thegoatman]

And along with Illinois being a top 5 population state, there is something I have mentioned here that I don't hear people talk about. Illinois economy is certain to cross the $1 trillion GDP mark this year, becoming the 5th trillion dollar state along with California, Texas, New York, and Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...itories_by_GDP

According to the chart, Illinois has a higher annual GDP change than New York which is crazy to think about

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Chicago has the second largest Mexican population behind LA. Y'all might call this a stretch, but I guarantee (along with the undercount) with many undocumented immigrants, Chicago population either touches or exceeds 3 million plus. This city has been losing population for decades yet we've been building apartments and condos like crazy? Even previously underserved areas like the south lakefront and parts of the west side are now filling up with population. I'm seeing tear downs and new builds in ENGLEWOOD! Just wanted to give my two cents...

And Pritzker released a tweet saying Illinois population is over 13 million for the first time which is nice. Fox News is probably pissed at this news

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/statu...17252517228544

Seeing that study with the massive swath of red on the map for sub 50% response rates really has me wondering about that. It's entirely possible. It makes you wonder about other cities too like LA, NYC, Houston, Dallas, Miami, SF, etc with large immigrant populations, especially ones with a large working class population. They all have to be undercounted right?

I was on Twitter and some people just genuinely wouldn't believe it even if you handed them directly the Census report. They'd call it propaganda first. Then you mention that red states like Texas, Arkansas, etc were also very undercounted. Then the smarter ones would be like "well, it says estimates!"


Also Englewood - I have not seen anything there with new construction. Canaryville yes. Washington Park, Woodlawn, Bronzeville yes. Englewood..? Only seen a few things like gas stations permitted before.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of the undercount was actually in Chicago proper.

Much of the likely dynamic behind the discrepany - e.g., immigrant populations - would have played out in other areas. Satellite cities like Rockford, the Quad Cities, central IL like Peoria.... Sheer scale would suggest Chicago proper was a big part, but some may have to do with which areas got people counted.

[the urban politician]

Am I to assume that this “correction” will at some point put out some numbers for Chicago or Cook County?

I also can’t help but wonder what Steely Dan would do if it turned out that the entire undercount came from downstate. He would probably need to have at list 3 strong pints of IPA to numb the misery

[ardecila]

I don't think they have enough information to do an adjustment to the city or county-level numbers. The Census is what it is, we just have to accept that the numbers are not as accurate as they should have been.

[Randomguy34]

Hmm, a larger population than expected might help explain why the city's 2023 deficit is dropping faster than expected. Lightfoot last month suggested there might even be a $200 million surplus.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I also can’t help but wonder what Steely Dan would do if it turned out that the entire undercount came from downstate. He would probably need to have at list 3 strong pints of IPA to numb the misery

I'll gladly drink the 3 IPAs regardless....

But there is zero chance that the entire undercount occurred downstate.

Zero.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Hmm, a larger population than expected might help explain why the city's 2023 deficit is dropping faster than expected. Lightfoot last month suggested there might even be a $200 million surplus.

Illinois income tax revenue is growing very strongly and we did not increase taxes (thanks be to God) so either people are earning more, there are more people or a combo.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Hmm, a larger population than expected might help explain why the city's 2023 deficit is dropping faster than expected. Lightfoot last month suggested there might even be a $200 million surplus.

Part of the reason they stated is due to higher than anticipated real estate transactions. As we know there is a transfer tax like most places.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I'll gladly drink the 3 IPAs regardless....

But there is zero chance that the entire undercount occurred downstate.

Zero.

In hindsight, that crazy decline in household size was probably the red flag of an undercount. It really should not be that different from Milwaukee or Philadelphia at worst.

The units are probably close to the accurate. There’s only so many legal units that can fit in most Chicago structures.

As for downstate, the local postman probably knows every single resident by name in those small towns. So Metro East is the only other location that could shift the statewide numbers.

[marothisu]

Lol IPI response is so weak. It's basically

"Illinois estimated loss was over 230K from 2010 to 2020 but Decennial Census was 18K loss. The most recent estimate shows 100K+ loss. You should trust those estimates despite the same ones being shown to be very far off after the real count was done"

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/pritz...pulation-boom/

Also, it's funny how everyone cites UHaul data. Theres so many companies that perform moves anywhere. The first time I moved into Illinois, it was my parents van. When I moved out, it was a national company who does everything for you. When we moved back last fall it was a national company who does everything for you. When we moved recently from our apartment in the city to our new condo, it was a local company who does everything for you. Pretty sure UHaul data is not the only to consider.

[marothisu]

Tribune with the article:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...kg4-story.html

Handful of quotes from people who moved to Illinois (mainly Chicago) from other places.

This one kind of hits for me as generally people only seem to look at tax rates and monthly rent or housing cost when trying to figure out their COL, and not much else. One of my good friends moved to Miami in the early days of the pandemic before the big price increases. I remember right away he said he has less money left over there after rent, transportation, etc than he did here

Carla Faustino, 30, who grew up in Palos Heights, made a move against the grain when she returned to the Chicago area last year from fast-growing Austin, Texas. Now living in Chicago’s Ravenswood neighborhood, she said her cost of living hasn’t really changed.

While she now pays a state income tax — Texas doesn’t have one — she’s also paying less in rent and in expenses for her car. She faces fewer toll roads and service fees in Illinois, she said, and government services, such as getting a driver’s license, work more smoothly here, she said.

“(Texas) seems really great on paper, but when you live there it doesn’t add up,” she said.

[Steely Dan]

^ and, of course, absolutely zero mention of a decade's worth of "The Great Illinois Exodus" op-eds.

Despite being the population capital of the Midwest with, according to the new estimate, about 13 million residents, Illinois still lost a congressional seat after the census, and the state continues to have some out-migration issues, keeping it in a demographic quandary compared with other parts of the country.

“Our problem is we are not growing as fast as places like Florida and Texas,” said Cynthia Buckley, a sociology professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “When we think about (congressional) apportionment, we have to think about our growth relative to other states.”

this isn't just an IL issue, the east north central (the 5 conventional "great lakes states") was, by far, the slowest growing CB sub-region in the nation last decade, even with the revised figure for IL.


2010 - 2020 growth % (as adjusted by the recent report):

OH: +0.8% (lost a house seat)
IL: +1.9% (lost a house seat)
MI: +2.0% (lost a house seat)
WI: +3.6%
IN: +4.7%


rustbelt-itis is alive and well, and still hampering our region.

a great many of IL's wounds are absolutely self-inflicted, but the state also suffers from some larger macro-trends that it has much less direct control over.

[SIGSEGV]

Lol @ https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opin...ains-editorial

Don't get too happy about those new census numbers, Illinois
The census snafu should have given our elected officials and the economic teams who work for them cause to take no more than a five-minute victory lap. There's still a ton of work to do to make Illinois a better place to live, work and invest.

...

Now that they’ve gotten that out of their system, it’s time to get back to work on fixing Illinois’ myriad problems. The best place to start is by creating policies that attract businesses, and the jobs they create, rather than repelling them. The solutions to many of this region’s most complex problems would flow from there.

[marothisu]

^ Well, they aren't wholly wrong on that. Any place you are should work for everyone to live, work, play, etc. But this is in general a generic thing for anyone to say - just because you're growing either doesn't mean you are the best place to live. Totally independent things. People tolerate various things - NYC has high taxes, the subway stations are a million degrees in the summer, it's very expensive, apartments/condos are small and a lot of the time old and not in great condition, and there's trash bags on the streets in numerous areas - none of these things make a place great to live in. But it didn't stop NYC from growing a ton from 2010 to 2020.

What those like Crain's are failing to do is go back and think about what problems are actually affecting things like economic growth vs. things they thought were affecting them but probably aren't as big of factors as once thought.

[marothisu]

By the way, I hope IPI's response doesn't get lost in this. They're really grasping at straws for that one. Somehow they fail to mention how far off the Census estimate programs were from 2010 to 2020 - predicting around 250K loss but really lost 18K. But then they say "Well, the new estimates show a huge loss."

Why would anyone even trust those estimate programs anymore for Illinois after 2010-2020 showed that the same programs were wildly inaccurate? There is no methodology change with these programs either.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

By the way, I hope IPI's response doesn't get lost in this. They're really grasping at straws for that one. Somehow they fail to mention how far off the Census estimate programs were from 2010 to 2020 - predicting around 250K loss but really lost 18K. But then they say "Well, the new estimates show a huge loss."

Why would anyone even trust those estimate programs anymore for Illinois after 2010-2020 showed that the same programs were wildly inaccurate? There is no methodology change with these programs either.

Doe the ACS go back and correct for errors? Like do they now show 2010-2020 with a much smaller loss or do they update from the census?

Sorry, but I am struggling to find the estimates now.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Doe the ACS go back and correct for errors? Like do they now show 2010-2020 with a much smaller loss or do they update from the census?

Sorry, but I am struggling to find the estimates now.

Anything they do does not consider at all the Decennial data when it comes out. They're completely different programs and different methodologies .I actually asked them this numerous years ago and this is what they told me (still have the email):

As you noted, Census Tract data relies on the 5-year ACS estimates. This means that the estimates are based solely on ACS data collected over 5 years. This is different from 2010 Decennial estimates, which represent only one point in time. Decennial data is not used in the production of tract-level data nor are previous estimates updated with new population data.