East Hants Developments & Updates

[DigitalNinja]

I found the amount of development approved/proposed for East Hants quite interesting. There is plenty of land available in Halifax however some of the more desireable spots close to highway access have been reserve for park use. IE expanding of Blue Mountain parkland etc.

I know that we would all like to see dense buildings in the city however there are many people who want a single family/attached house and supply should be there. However! I do think the suburbs should be better designed and more dense while still allowing people to own a single family house. Mixed in with MU buildings etc.

The reason I bring this up is that there is currently ~4,600+ units approved or with active applications ongoing in East Hants adding 10,000+ people to the area or 50%+ of it's current population. This will be including in the Halifax CMA in future census. This is a big expansion to our official population.

Here are some of the applications I could find:
Shaw Lantz ~1,500 Units: https://www.easthants.ca/wp-content/...-June-2020.pdf / https://www.kiln-creek.com/
Armco Lantz ~2,205 Units: https://www.easthants.ca/government/...ication-lantz/
FH Development Elmsdale ~662 Units: https://www.easthants.ca/government/...l-dr-elmsdale/
WM Fares Enfield 198 Units - https://www.easthants.ca/government/...way-2-enfield/
Leno Ribahi 2 MU buildings 4 & 6 Stories - Unknown Units (~120 or so?) - No link
JACC Enterprise - South Uniacke ~50 Units https://www.easthants.ca/government/...south-uniacke/

Catherine St Investments - Enfield - 168 Units https://www.easthants.ca/government/...ne-st-enfield/ - This one was refused but I assume there will be an appeal or another application for something else on the same site.

Beyond these applications there is also the interchange which is nearing completion which will allow more access to many of these areas.

[Dmajackson]

The Armco project is called Wickwire Station and was approved last year. This project alone is 2'200 units and will be built over a decade. This will be a couple kms north of the new Highway 102 Exit 8A.


Source: Armco Capital

[Hali87]

A few images from Shaw's Kiln Creek website; this subdivision in Lantz (near Elmsdale along the 102) is projected to have 1500 units plus retail. I'd thought the site was one of Shaw's old quarries but based on Google Maps it's currently forest (though there are quarries nearby). The existing buildings are the East Hants Sportsplex and Maple Ridge Elementary:

[Keith P.]

Those units in the first pic look like seniors/assisted living housing of a sort. I am not so crazy about the modified Highfield Park Special shown in the second pic. It's a shame, as this area is booming as HRM residents escape the high taxes and out of control "progressiveness" of HRM Council.

[DigitalNinja]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Those units in the first pic look like seniors/assisted living housing of a sort. I am not so crazy about the modified Highfield Park Special shown in the second pic. It's a shame, as this area is booming as HRM residents escape the high taxes and out of control "progressiveness" of HRM Council.

Sorry Keith - You and I share some same views - but you're wrong about the high taxes in HRM. East Hants has a tax rate of .8507 vs HRM at .6670 - Although property values are a little less in East Hants the tax rate is still higher.

[Keith P.]

East Hants does not have the spending addiction that HRM is afflicted with, so as that area continues to grow, the tax rate will moderate. Meanwhile HRM prepares to fix climate change all by themselves by spending massive amounts of money on very questionable initiatives, and applying a significant surcharge to the tax rate. They are also quietly considering taking on hundreds of millions in debt to feed their spending addiction. When those bills come due things will really hit the fan.

[PEI highway guy]

What would the population of this area be? Is it close enough to HRM that could/will it eventually be part of HRM?

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by PEI highway guy

What would the population of this area be? Is it close enough to HRM that could/will it eventually be part of HRM?

Unlikely. It's in a different county (Hants), so making it part of HRM would require the province to change the county boundaries.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

Unlikely. It's in a different county (Hants), so making it part of HRM would require the province to change the county boundaries.

Not to mention how the locals there would revolt. People living in the outlying areas of HRM have long wanted to be part of their neighboring rural municipalities as it is.

[ILoveHalifax]

However, from what I have read East Hants or part of it will be counted in the metro population figures next year so there is 20,000 extra people to be added to Halifax population

[Hali87]

Yeah that's my understanding - this area is getting lumped into the Halifax CMA (for StatCan purposes) because a high percentage of people living in that area work within HRM. But I don't think East Hants would join HRM in the sense of being subject to HRM taxes and bylaws and having their local political representation be through HRM council. I could see this area becoming our equivalent of York Region as time goes on and attract people who are used to that lifestyle. Hopefully not too much productive farmland will be lost in the process. As the area grows it would make sense to expand transit service to the area (which could have the side-effect of improving transit service to the airport); this would require inter-municipal cooperation.

I don't know the exact figures offhand but based on development patterns it looks like the Enfield-Elmsdale-Lantz-Shubenacadie corridor has a similar population to Beechville-Lakeside-Timberlea, but is growing faster. Maybe 10,000-15,000 in that immediate area along the 102 if I had to guess.

[someone123]

I think this is what will be added (the "Municipality of the District of East Hants"): https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...TABID=1&type=0

Population was 22,453 in 2016 so probably a bit higher today. Interestingly Statistics Canada produced population estimates for July 2021 for Atlantic Canada, but they're not published on the website and I don't know what the number is for East Hants. They will publish all of the estimated 2021 populations in January.

Halifax was estimated at about 460,000 in July with the 2016 boundaries so I'd estimate the population to be around 490,000 right now using the expanded 2021 boundaries with East Hants. Halifax could hit 500,000 sometime in 2022, much sooner than I would have imagined a few years ago, and I would expect ahead of planning estimates too. And soon the metro area will exceed 50% of the NS population.

[Mr.Zero33]

IMO, any population figure over 500,000 puts Halifax on another level of major cities. Any Pro Sport leagues usually look at a one hour or one and a half hour drive time to the venue. Then your into 600 to 650,000 for potential spectators.

[Half-Axed]

I thought I had seen projections at the sub-provincial level other than CMAs but it's hard to find anything on StatsCan right now - the search function still seems to be broken.

The East Hants Municipality put out a report with projections in 2018. At that time they were projecting something around 24,300 for 2021.

https://www.easthants.ca/wp-content/...inal-Draft.pdf

Originally Posted by someone123

I think this is what will be added (the "Municipality of the District of East Hants"): https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...TABID=1&type=0

Population was 22,453 in 2016 so probably a bit higher today. Interestingly Statistics Canada produced population estimates for July 2021 for Atlantic Canada, but they're not published on the website and I don't know what the number is for East Hants. They will publish all of the estimated 2021 populations in January.

Halifax was estimated at about 460,000 in July with the 2016 boundaries so I'd estimate the population to be around 490,000 right now using the expanded 2021 boundaries with East Hants. Halifax could hit 500,000 sometime in 2022, much sooner than I would have imagined a few years ago, and I would expect ahead of planning estimates too. And soon the metro area will exceed 50% of the NS population.

[jamespeterson]

Thanks for sharing. it's valuable

[Summerville]

Originally Posted by Hali87

Yeah that's my understanding - this area is getting lumped into the Halifax CMA (for StatCan purposes) because a high percentage of people living in that area work within HRM. But I don't think East Hants would join HRM in the sense of being subject to HRM taxes and bylaws and having their local political representation be through HRM council. I could see this area becoming our equivalent of York Region as time goes on and attract people who are used to that lifestyle. Hopefully not too much productive farmland will be lost in the process. As the area grows it would make sense to expand transit service to the area (which could have the side-effect of improving transit service to the airport); this would require inter-municipal cooperation.

I don't know the exact figures offhand but based on development patterns it looks like the Enfield-Elmsdale-Lantz-Shubenacadie corridor has a similar population to Beechville-Lakeside-Timberlea, but is growing faster. Maybe 10,000-15,000 in that immediate area along the 102 if I had to guess.

Maybe it will soon be time for the province to create a provincial crown corporation for mass transit including perhaps traffic….a transportation authority and roll in the bridge commission..a specific authority for Halifax and areas such as Windsor and east hants

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Summerville

Maybe it will soon be time for the province to create a provincial crown corporation for mass transit including perhaps traffic….a transportation authority and roll in the bridge commission..a specific authority for Halifax and areas such as Windsor and east hants

Not a bad idea.

Regional commuter transportation frequently encompasses several neighbouring jurisdictions, which might require provincial oversight. With metro Halifax approaching 50% of the provincial population, a properly functioning regional transit system really starts to become a provincial priority, as this will impact on the economic health of the entire province.

Provincial involvement is especially important when one considers the possibility of commuter rail, which could extend beyond the limits of HRM, perhaps to Truro and Windsor.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Provincial involvement is especially important when one considers the possibility of commuter rail, which could extend beyond the limits of HRM, perhaps to Truro and Windsor.

In the long run this could be good but I see so many bad takes on how transit should be developed in the metro area. On Reddit you see posts like "Halifax is too split up so they should focus on transit in Elmsdale and out to Truro" or "let's put LRT along the 102".

I think the outer areas are pretty well-served by the highways while the most underserved area for transit is (probably somewhat paradoxically seeming to most people) likely to be the peninsula since its older road network is getting too busy for buses or mixed traffic with buses. Expanded passenger rail along the existing corridor might work well but CN seems to oppose it. Ultimately, NS/HRM need to invest in an authority that does good quality regional transportation planning and analyzes all of the options, including capital intensive ones. HRM has never really done this. The BRT and ferry plan is OK and the old commuter rail studies were pretty bad. The starting point should probably be something like "if we spent $2B on transit, what would we build, and what benefit would we see?".

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

I wonder if my thoughts on LRT are a 'bad take on how rail transit should be developed'? In the absence of feedback it's difficult to learn and to grow ideas. Heck, I'm not sure I've ever seen the problem that rail transit could solve clearly stated. Do we want to move the folks who live in the city around? Or do we want to move the folks who come to Halifax in cars every day around? Or do we want to do both with a stronger focus on one of those two groups?

There's a 57 hecter piece of land zoned UR (urban reserve?) out near the croch of the 102 and the Bedford Bypass, near where the 107 extension will connect with the 102 and not far from the 101 which may one day be connected to the 103 via the 113 that seems like an excellent spot to site an LRT base.

The current provincial govt. is shooting for 2 million people in NS by 2060 and if this becomes reality we gotta figure about 1 million for HRM. Isn't LRT strongly likely in our future?

I'm not keen on HRM taking on the requirements that a new and diffenent technology that will come along with fast ferries. A ferry is not a ferry and two types of ferries means nearly twice the cost. If it is strongly likely that LRT will come along eventually then taking on the aditional ferry tech seems...unsmart. Shannon Park could host a ferry of the same type currently used.

It's simply unacceptable that CN would not be willing to work with whatever power may be in the creation of greener transit solution for HRM. There will be a cost of course. Power to the people.

In short, I'm in favour of an LRT system that get longer distance commuters out of their cars and off our city streets, wisking them to city centre and back, on schedule, whilst picking up and dropping off HRM citizens at stations along the route.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Half-Axed

I thought I had seen projections at the sub-provincial level other than CMAs but it's hard to find anything on StatsCan right now - the search function still seems to be broken.

StatCan produces yearly figures at the county and subprovincial level but not for municipalities. Hants County has a population estimate of 43,654 as of July 1, 2020.

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

There's a 57 hecter piece of land zoned UR (urban reserve?) out near the croch of the 102 and the Bedford Bypass, near where the 107 extension will connect with the 102 and not far from the 101 which may one day be connected to the 103 via the 113 that seems like an excellent spot to site an LRT base.

This really depends on your definition of LRT and what you're envisioning. LRT hubs on highways are fine but they're not conducive to good TOD and are only useful for people who already have cars. They typically require giant parking garages.

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

In short, I'm in favour of an LRT system that get longer distance commuters out of their cars and off our city streets, wisking them to city centre and back, on schedule, whilst picking up and dropping off HRM citizens at stations along the route.

There's always a balance to be made between useful urban transit and what you're describing - commuter rail. Would HRM voters be ok with transit that better serves people who live in Bedford or Cole Harbour than those who live on the Peninsula? Ottawa is going through this now with their LRT system which is hyper-focused on commuters at the expense of those who live in the core.