CHICAGO | Chicago Spire | 610 M / 2,000 FT | 150 FLOORS | NEVER BUILT

[Alliance]

EVERYBODY CALM THE FREAK DOWN.

I swear there is like a one week lull and everyone puts thier panties on their heads and runs outside in the snow screaming.

[Pru]

Originally Posted by Dalton

. . . It's pretty obvious Kelleher is stalling now, . . .

All very well stated and very possible. I would just go more with "very possible" rather than "pretty obvious." There are absolutely construction and financing complexities here that are beyond the experience of any of us.

No doubt, it they had a construction loan, they'd announce that. Also, all indications are that they thought they'd have the loan by now. But for all we know, he may have a commitment already and may just be negotiating to increase it.

On a couple of the other points -- I agree that a smaller building doesn't work. It decreases the potential income and decreases the attractiveness of it as a property.

On the notion of "enough multimillionaires in Chicago" I would mention that the smaller units don't require a million in assets -- just a healthy income & good credit. Possible there might be more than a few of those. In fact, they might increase the number of cheaper units in order to boost sales.

On the Olympic note -- I couldn't agree more. If this project is not going vertical by the time that announcement is made next year (and presuming we're not in a new real estate boom then) -- it's dead.

[Nowhereman1280]

Dalton and others continue to post completely stupid and uneducated comments on this thread. It is flat out a lie to say that the site is "inactive". Again, LOOK AT THE FREAKING PICTURES!!! THERE ARE TWO HUGE HOLES WHERE THE CASSIONS ARE, THERE ARE CAP WALLS BEING BUILT ON THE SECANT WALLS, THERE IS A NEW PILE OF SHEET PILES, HOW IS THAT INACTIVE?

Also, anyone who thinks that the 30% sales figure is weak or disappointing to Kellher clearly has NO knowlege of real estate or you would realize how stunning that figure is. Also, READ VICTORS POST, he has learned that sales are now "well north of 30%"... In other the words, THE UNITS ARE SELLING and continuing to sell. When you say "the units aren't selling" it is no longer speculation, but just flat out deception and lying.

I am astounded that this stupidity continues despite the fact that EVERY SINGLE SOLID FACT we have suggests the exact opposite of what is being said... Seriously people, this conversation is getting just ludicrous with the straight bull shit being slung around...

[honte]

^ I agree. There is no concrete evidence of a real slowdown - we have no idea what is going on or about to happen. Obviously some people have never worked on a construction site if they expect everything to move along like clockwork at all times.

The idea that there isn't enough money here to support the building is BS too. I have a very good feeling Mr. Kelleher did a bit more research than that. Someone feel like pulling the studies of millionaires in Cook County? Anyone who has studied the demographics of the Chicago area at length will know the scope and depth of the economy here and the very positive levels of wealth in the area.

I highly doubt the Olympics will have much to do with this tower. Local real estate trends, international perception, exchange rates, growth of the local economy have a much better meaning. Who the hell invests in residential real estate because of a sporting event that lasts a few weeks? See any 2000' luxury towers in Atlanta? I love the Spire, but I don't think it's so good that it will sell just because someone does the long jump with it rising in the background. It's rather absurd to correlate the two.

[Apex]

Does anyone know how old that 30% figure is, or can anyone verify that it is still up-to-date?

[Dalton]

Originally Posted by honte

^ I agree. There is no concrete evidence of a real slowdown - we have no idea what is going on or about to happen. Obviously some people have never worked on a construction site if they expect everything to move along like clockwork at all times.

The idea that there isn't enough money here to support the building is BS too. I have a very good feeling Mr. Kelleher did a bit more research than that. Someone feel like pulling the studies of millionaires in Cook County? Anyone who has studied the demographics of the Chicago area at length will know the scope and depth of the economy here and the very positive levels of wealth in the area.

I highly doubt the Olympics will have much to do with this tower. Local real estate trends, international perception, exchange rates, growth of the local economy have a much better meaning. Who the hell invests in residential real estate because of a sporting event that lasts a few weeks? See any 2000' luxury towers in Atlanta? I love the Spire, but I don't think it's so good that it will sell just because someone does the long jump with it rising in the background. It's rather absurd to correlate the two.

I disagree about the Olympics. Look what the Olympics did for Barcelona. I agree that if the opportunity is badly botched or the city doesn't truly have anything to offer on an international scale (which is why Atlanta failed miserably), the Games won't help. But Chicago's international reputation gets a big boost, and more importantly a major makeover, by winning the Olympics because it is a city that is still widely misunderstood and underappreciated by foreigners. Internationally, Chicago is still perceived as a gritty industrial town with a long history of organized crime - a declining rust belt city well past its prime. Perhaps they still slaughter pigs there.

As Kelleher's video documenting Chicago aptly portrays, new visitors are frequently "surprised" at the city's beauty and sophistication. Anyone ever "surprised" at how beautiful Paris is? Or "surprised" at how sophisticated London or New York are? The Olympics is just one more feather in Chicago's cap that would give it the reputation as a city of the future. Kelleher is clearly banking on the weak dollar to sell the Spire internationally, so it's vitally important that the city is in the news in a positive way and perceived as on the rise.

[Rocket1]

Originally Posted by Apex

Does anyone know how old that 30% figure is, or can anyone verify that it is still up-to-date?

You should have read the last page!!

Two days ago Victor posted:

Originally Posted by BVictor1

This is all I can spare.

"> There will be a lull, then activity - as we need to finish off the
7th ring beam in the cofferdam.

>Then it's utilities and sewer.

> We're in talks with contractors and as you can imagine, it's a
complex project - so it's taking some time.

> Yes, we are well north of 30% now

> More to come .... You won't be disappointed."

[cbotnyse]

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

Dalton and others continue to post completely stupid and uneducated comments on this thread. It is flat out a lie to say that the site is "inactive". Again, LOOK AT THE FREAKING PICTURES!!! THERE ARE TWO HUGE HOLES WHERE THE CASSIONS ARE, THERE ARE CAP WALLS BEING BUILT ON THE SECANT WALLS, THERE IS A NEW PILE OF SHEET PILES, HOW IS THAT INACTIVE?

Also, anyone who thinks that the 30% sales figure is weak or disappointing to Kellher clearly has NO knowlege of real estate or you would realize how stunning that figure is. Also, READ VICTORS POST, he has learned that sales are now "well north of 30%"... In other the words, THE UNITS ARE SELLING and continuing to sell. When you say "the units aren't selling" it is no longer speculation, but just flat out deception and lying.

I am astounded that this stupidity continues despite the fact that EVERY SINGLE SOLID FACT we have suggests the exact opposite of what is being said... Seriously people, this conversation is getting just ludicrous with the straight bull shit being slung around...

Originally Posted by honte

^ I agree. There is no concrete evidence of a real slowdown - we have no idea what is going on or about to happen.

The only thing I have said is the credit market is dead, and we have plenty of concrete evidence to support that. That fact is not "completely stupid and uneducated." Nowhereman, I would educate yourself with the current health of the real estate and credit markets before saying something like that. I mean, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are on the verge of failing, and they back up $4 trillion dollars worth of this country's mortgages.

I'm not even suggesting there is a slowdown or anything is off schedule. Units are selling and that is excellent, but this tower will need an enormous financing deal, that I just dont see available right now. It will take some time.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Dalton

I disagree about the Olympics. Look what the Olympics did for Barcelona. I agree that if the opportunity is badly botched or the city doesn't truly have anything to offer on an international scale (which is why Atlanta failed miserably), the Games won't help. But Chicago's international reputation gets a big boost, and more importantly a major makeover, by winning the Olympics because it is a city that is still widely misunderstood and underappreciated by foreigners. Internationally, Chicago is still perceived as a gritty industrial town with a long history of organized crime - a declining rust belt city well past its prime. Perhaps they still slaughter pigs there.

^ I disagree with your disagreement. Winning the Olympics is in no way necessary, to even the remotest degree, for this project to be successful. I am actually quite surprised that very rational and intelligent people (like yourself) who are otherwise making great arguments are throwing that idea into the mix.

Chicago has received tons of foreign investment on its commercial & residential real estate for many, many years--I know that by simply reading the local news every day. Over 120 highrises (and growing) have been built in Chicago in the past 8 years, representing billions & billions of dollars of real estate, albeit during a national real estate boom. We're talking about a city that has tons of infrastructure and well over a thousand huge, expensive highrises that have been built in 120 years. Developers have built luxury residential towers in Chicago successfully for decades, through some of the worst economic recessions & through the era of white flight which plundered other American cities.

It is clearly evident by this that Chicago is a city, more than nearly any other in this country (besides NY, LA, perhaps SF) that does not need to hitch its wagon to the star of a major 2-week event to justify such an investment. Generations of investment and the grandness of the city around you alone proves otherwise.

[aaron38]

Originally Posted by Dalton

But this strategy can only work smoothly in a hot market, when creditors are begging for projects to invest in. In both cases, the developers did not count on the severe depth of the collapse of the both the credit markets and the Chicago condo market. Who's going to give Kelleher a $3 billion loan now? IndyMac?

Maybe MrLakepoint himself will join this thread and speak to his experience, but this is what he posted in the 560 N Fairbanks thread last month:

Originally Posted by MrLakepoint

No, this is the best time (maybe not in the next few months) but in the next 6 months to a year to build for the future. There are funds (like mine) where we are just sitting on cash waiting for the low in the market. We are reaching or we are very close to that valley. You need to put your unused capital something so that it starts to work for you in time. These larger funds (1 billion or more) are desperate to start the flow of capital into something so that they can show their clients that they are at least trying to have their capital working forward otherwise why would anyone stay with a fund that is just receiving govt rates.

His point being, that as bad as the credit market gets, there are still a ton of investors and venture capitalists out there, who want to keep their money growing at better than inflation. In a bad market, there is always the flight to quality. Which means that 'Nameless PoMo condo building #7' is going to have a hard time at it, but a project like the Spire that basically sells itself, that WILL sell out if built, is going to attract those large funds that need to do something soon or lose their clients.

[Chicago3rd]

Originally Posted by Dalton

It's pretty obvious Kelleher is stalling now,

Please share with us the "stalling now". Details would really help your opinion.

[ChiPsy]

Originally Posted by Dalton

Internationally, Chicago is still perceived as a gritty industrial town with a long history of organized crime - a declining rust belt city well past its prime. Perhaps they still slaughter pigs there.

Dalton, some of the words you're typing lately are leaning toward overstatement. Chicago's international rep is mostly very positive (with far fewer sophisticated/wealthy people still seeing it through 1950's - 1970's lenses). It also has the 3rd most millionaires of any US metro area coupled with possibly the strongest "return to the city" development trend on the North American continent.

In other words, as Kelleher's research no doubt revealed, the elements are in place for a downtown Chicago trophy tower if the (world-wide) credit markets and (local) real-estate markets remain reasonably intact. Your comments mostly add to the discussion of whether those hopes are bankable, but a few of them are hyperbolic -- and, in this setting, incendiary.

That said, I'm grateful for 70% of what you've said recently -- it keeps my exuberance in check.

[thirdgencubfan]

Dalton,

You seem to be acting on the basis that the Spire would be affected by local/national economic fluctuations (e.g. housing/credit). Unfortunately, it seems you have disregarded the ability for international money to flow in when the dollar is weak and when their currencies are worth more than the dollar.

The Spire is a totally different level of project than almost every other building in Chicago. It's not immune to the housing/credit market in the country, but it won't be affected by it.

You seem so sure of yourself regarding your speculation/conclusions. Do you have experience with a construction project of this magnitude?

[Dr. Taco]

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

LOOK AT THE FREAKING PICTURES!!! THERE ARE TWO HUGE HOLES WHERE THE CASSIONS ARE, THERE ARE CAP WALLS BEING BUILT ON THE SECANT WALLS, THERE IS A NEW PILE OF SHEET PILES, HOW IS THAT INACTIVE?

Dalton, don't you dare ignore this. I'm getting a little pissed off

[Apex]

Originally Posted by thirdgencubfan

It's not immune to the housing/credit market in the country, but it won't be affected by it.

I agree with most of your post, but I just want to point out that this sentence makes no sense; if it's not affected, then it is immune by definition.

[cactus22minus1]

aaron38 has already posted what's been at the tip of my tongue as I caught up on the last couple pages of this thread, especially when reading comments like:

If anything they'll put it on hold until the market (for these type of units) spruces back up

Isn't this just about the BEST time to sell units for a project like this? Especially to foreign buyers? Potential high end buyers should be looking to invest right now.. not sit on their money!

[cbotnyse]

Originally Posted by thirdgencubfan

Dalton,

You seem to be acting on the basis that the Spire would be affected by local/national economic fluctuations (e.g. housing/credit). Unfortunately, it seems you have disregarded the ability for international money to flow in when the dollar is weak and when their currencies are worth more than the dollar.

The Spire is a totally different level of project than almost every other building in Chicago. It's not immune to the housing/credit market in the country, but it won't be affected by it.

You seem so sure of yourself regarding your speculation/conclusions. Do you have experience with a construction project of this magnitude?

Originally Posted by cactus22minus1

aaron38 has already posted what's been at the tip of my tongue as I caught up on the last couple pages of this thread, especially when reading comments like:



Isn't this just about the BEST time to sell units for a project like this? Especially to foreign buyers? Potential high end buyers should be looking to invest right now.. not sit on their money!

guys, I don't think Dalton is talking about the lack of potential buyers, that has always been a positive aspect of this project. Potential buyers for these units would not have a problem getting financing, and they probably don't even need it. He is talking about the ability for the Spire to obtain financing to finish the tower as planned. The Spire needs a lot of money (anyone know about how much?) to contine construction, and the market for that money is very dry right now. Its certainly not impossible and there are no signs to suggest it wont happen, but it is a legitimate cause for concern.

[MarbleandMarple]

Originally Posted by Adam186

Photo Credit: HarryC


I remember some time seeing a construction diagram posted here before that showed sheet piles around each pair of the 7 exterior columns. They'll drive piles down, excavate, lay the rebar, and pour large amounts of concrete to create the large super columns. This should be exciting!

What slowdown?

[cactus22minus1]

Originally Posted by cbotnyse

guys, I don't think Dalton is talking about the lack of potential buyers,

Allow me requote him since it didn't make it into your post:

Originally Posted by Dalton

If anything they'll put it on hold until the market (for these type of units) spruces back up

I'm not trying to rip anyone apart here. I'm just saying some key parts of that argument don't make a lot of sense right now.

[cbotnyse]

^^ thanks, I do disagree with Dalton there. I think there is a market for these units, specifically for international buyers, given the value of the dollar.