2020 Presidential Election Results by Top 50 MSA

[Docere]

I can also see why GA went D and NC didn't, in spite of a stronger Democratic history in NC. Metro Atlanta is 60% of the state and reached a demographic "tipping point." In NC, there is no dominant metro and the influence of the Raleigh/Durham "research triangle" is overstated. Seems like it's going to be a tightly contested state for a while.

[Steely Dan]

^ yes, metro atlanta now seems like it has grown large enough to where it can really start throwing it's political weight around georgia and dictating its will, sort of like a budding southern version of chicagoland and illinois.

States with a single super alpha metro seem more prone to being poltically dominated by that metro compared to states like ohio and north carolina with a more dispersed urban model of a constellation of medium sized metros.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Thank you for putting this together!

Looks like the top 10 biggest margins were:
SF +61.04
SJ +47.74
DC +46.70
Seattle +38.16
Boston +36.04
LA +35.78
Chicago +31.62
Portland +31.52
Philadelphia +29.82
Austin +27.30

Lowest 10 margins were:
OKC -17.14
Cincinnati -14.38
Jacksonville -13.02
Nashville -10.68
Tampa -2.60
Pittsburgh -2.26
Louisville +0.08
Charlotte +0.40
Phoenix +0.60
Houston +0.84

Some observations. NYC's Biden margin is surprisingly low compared to other large, liberal metros. SF (and SJ) continues to cement its lead as the most liberal area in the US, although the margin of victory actually shrunk from 2016 to 2020. In fact, the only other places that got more Trumpy % wise than SF/SJ were LA at -5.53%, NYC at -8.13% and Miami and -11.96. Also, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, and Houston are still surprisingly Trumpy.

California, Illinois, and New York are still counting. So the New York City number is a red herring at this point (which is why I highlighted the Biden gains but not the declines - since those are red mirages, so to speak).

I'll update in 2 weeks when votes are fully certified. The other states are basically done, so those MSA figures will largely stick.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Looks like the top 10 biggest margins were:
SF +61.04
SJ +47.74
DC +46.70
Seattle +38.16
Boston +36.04
LA +35.78
Chicago +31.62
Portland +31.52
Philadelphia +29.82
Austin +27.30

Lowest 10 margins were:
OKC -17.14
Cincinnati -14.38
Jacksonville -13.02
Nashville -10.68
Tampa -2.60
Pittsburgh -2.26
Louisville +0.08
Charlotte +0.40
Phoenix +0.60
Houston +0.84

If manitopiaaa's data is correct, then I think you mistakenly omitted Indy (-2.40) from the lowest margin list.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

If manitopiaaa's data is correct, then I think you mistakenly omitted Indy (-2.40) from the lowest margin list.

Oops that’s right. Thanks for pointing that out!

[Docere]

And 60% in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota is domianted by a large, educated, liberal metro. Further evidence that the state is not "just another Wisconsin" waiting to flip based on the 2016 result. Trump seemed fixated on winning the state and it didn't seem to help much.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

Houston was only +1.90%, so the Dallas/Houston divergence definitely merits some analysis.

Yeah, dallas had a lot more pro-blue movement, but it started from a deeper hole.

What I find most curious about dallas and houston is how conservative they still are relative to the other largest metros (4M+). Only phoenix is Iower in that group.

They only had biden margins of +1.20 and +0.84. you move those up to a more average +15 - 30, and texas easily goes blue.

[Docere]

Dallas and Houston seem remarkably similar. Similar size, ethnic composition, socioeconomics - and not surprisingly in politics.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Docere

And 60% in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota is domianted by a large, educated metro. Further evidence that the state is not "just another Wisconsin" based on the 2016 result. Trump seemed fixated on winning the state and it didn't seem to help much.

Yeah, when was the last time minnesota went red? It had to be ages ago.

As for wisconsin, yeah, it's much more swingy because it lacks a true alpha metro to dominate it, but metro Milwaukee got up to a +10 this time, which is respectable for a smaller metro (doubly so considering the uber-conservative reputation of the WOW counties).

And WI's blue ace-in-the-hole is Madison's Dane County (2nd largest in the state). With a biden share of 75.5%, I think Dane is the bluest county in the Midwest this time around, slightly ahead of Cook County (currently at 74.3%, but Cook still has a bit to count).

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Yeah, when was the last time minnesota went red? It had to be ages ago.

1972, picking Nixon over McGovern. Minnesota was the only state to vote for Mondale over Reagan, giving it the longest blue streak in the country (aside from DC).

[MonkeyRonin]

Man, I knew the Bay Area was liberal, but I didn't realize it was that much of an anomaly. I was actually expecting Boston or DC to take the "top" spot.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Crawford

But how could they lose Pittsburgh? That metro is full of eds and meds.

The counties outside Pittsburgh used to be some of the most reliable Democratic areas of the country forever because of the heavily unionized steel, coal, and manufacturing-related industries. They were pretty much always blue until 2008... when a certain black guy came along.

It was among the only metros in the country to go more red in 2008... along with most of West Virginia and Mississippi... if that tells You anything about SW PA outside of Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh has a big “eds and meds” presence, but the surrounding counties (particularly Fayette, Westmoreland, Beaver, and Washington) are depressed to varying degrees, and are all about fracking.

Originally Posted by Docere

Pittsburgh is a very liberal and educated city but I guess it's a liberal island in a very culturally conservative, rusty, WWC metro.

I wouldn’t go so far to say that Pittsburgh is very liberal and educated. Parts are, but the majority of the city and Allegheny County are just old-school Dem... not particularly liberal, nor educated

Much of the Pittsburgh “metro” is no different than northern West Virginia in culture. It’s Appalachia... and when the big dirty industries were still around, they voted union blue... but that’s long gone.

[Chef]

Originally Posted by Docere

And 60% in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Minnesota is domianted by a large, educated, liberal metro. Further evidence that the state is not "just another Wisconsin" waiting to flip based on the 2016 result. Trump seemed fixated on winning the state and it didn't seem to help much.

Hennepin County, which is Minneapolis and a large swathe of its inner suburbia has about 20% of Minnesota's population. It went 71 - 27 for Biden. He won Hennepin by 326k votes which was larger than his statewide margin (233k votes). Ramsey County which is mostly St Paul and is smaller went to Biden by similar margins. The core counties of the Twin Cities are blue enough that it is really hard for Republicans to win statewide. The only issue for Democrats is that the Twin Cities also have an anti-establishment streak so they will have a significant third party vote if the Democratic candidate is unpopular.

Without Hennepin and Ramsey counties Minnesota is basically Iowa.

[Steely Dan]

^ on top of that, the twin cities also saw some good biden margins in two of their fully suburban counties as well:

Dakota County (south burbs): +13.9 biden (was +4.6 hillary in 2016)

Washinton County (east burbs): +9.2 biden (was +1.8 hillary in 2016)


more examples of the suburban rejection of donald trump.

[Omaharocks]

Interesting. Some surprises for me:

More conservative than I might have expected:

Cincinnati
Buffalo

More liberal than I would have expected:

SLC
San Diego

I know both of these cities have typically dem-dominated urban cores, but the metros have a rep and history of being more conservative.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by Crawford

People are always talking about Nashville is this huge progressive/hipster mecca, with a dash of Hollywood. It's a deep red metro. I always got the sense it was extremely right wing overall.

Also, the Dems were a disaster in the rustiest part of the Rust Belt. We know about Youngstown, Akron and Canton. But how could they lose Pittsburgh? That metro is full of eds and meds.

And Cincy was an epic disaster. Wow, that's a conservative metro. The Dems are hopeless in Ohio in the near term, if they barely clear 40% in a major metro.

Originally Posted by Docere

Pittsburgh is a very liberal and educated city but I guess it's a liberal island in a very culturally conservative, rusty, WWC metro.

Outside of the city of Pittsburgh and it's surrounding Allegheny County - which typically goes blue, is more liberal, and is where most of the eds & meds jobs are located - the rest of Pittsburgh's metro region is surrounded by much more rural, red-leaning, depressed rust belt counties that have been trending more red over the past 2 decades.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Omaharocks

More liberal than I would have expected:

SLC
San Diego

yeah, metro SLC was about as blue as milwaukee or columbus, which i wouldn't have expected given utah's reputation.

what is mildly interesting is that it went ever so slightly more red this time around, though that might just be statistical noise.


as for SD, these days i think it gets pegged with the "conservative" rep simply because it isn't as ragingly blue as its bigger cali cousins: LA and the bay area.

anytime you can get a large metro area of some 3M people to go +23 for team blue, it's very hard to consider it a hotbed of conservatism.

[pj3000]

^^ the Pittsburgh-surrounding counties situation was explained above with a bit more local knowledge .

And it’s not because those areas much more rural... more rural than the city of Pittsburgh, but they’re not that rural. But rather are filled with former coal and steel towns, particularly in the Monongahela, Chartiers, Youghiogheny, and Beaver valleys... where the development is quite dense.

These were long Dem-supporting areas due to union coal and steel related labor unions and black population. Now these counties are the hub of the Marcellus Shale fracking play. They flipped red in 2008 because of Obama and fracking. They were only blue because of labor, never because of socially liberal policy adherence.

[iheartthed]

Trump isn't very popular with the military, so it isn't very surprising that Biden performed better than expected in San Diego.

[ChiSoxRox]

Salt Lake City's numbers are helped by the MSA just being the Jordan Valley part of the Wasatch Front. Provo is a separate MSA, and it's a rather different story:


Utah County

Trump - 67.8% - 183,778

Biden - 26.8% -72,739