Everything is backordered

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by Beedok

I’ll guess there’s some level of truck driver shortage here, the same as around the world? Expectations of automation meaning fewer new drivers and significant levels of experienced drivers being out from long covid complications?

Significant logistic company issues as well for various classes/axles as well.

[DoubleK]

The prices my suppliers are being quoted for a standard container are 10x what they were 6 months ago.

We are using a lot more air freight which used to be cost prohibitive, but with the uncertainty of regular shipping there isn't really another alternative if you can't push the schedule out.

Fasteners have been hard to find at times. Good luck getting anything with a chip in it in less than 20 months.

[someone123]

I don't think this stuff is properly accounted for in inflation metrics either. There are a lot of products that you can't buy at all, take a long time (even though nominal cost is the same, you lose the use of money and the item), or are much more of a hassle for some other reason (e.g. people would shop in the US in 2019, but now have to do some mix of flights/tests and it's usually just not worth it).

How much of your pay would you give up to be personally magically put back into a 2019 consumer bubble? The CPI says that is worth something on the order of 5% of income spent.

[SignalHillHiker]

Lots on random things have been lacking since the pandemic began. I remember being unable to find a tank top at the beginning of summer except at second-hand stores. And there have been lots of stories of shortages - most recently the buckets that our salt beef is sold in.

One I didn’t even notice - my parents overly generous housewarming gift to me was to replace the 1970s stove in my new place. Several family/friends who’ve happened to hear about that have been dumbfounded that they could get one. “Was it a display model or second-hand or what? I’ve been trying to get a new one, any one, for my mother for 6 months. Where did you get it?” Etc. Dad didn’t even notice an issue - went to the store, got the first one standard width without traditional elements lol

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I'm guessing most of our overseas freight comes through our ports. So, even if we don't have as high a backlog, if our ports cannot handle the increased traffic, it is still contributing to the supply chain meltdown.

The issue isn't within Canada. Welcome to the folly of relying on China to make so many of our goods and the components contained in goods assembled here.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The issue isn't within Canada. Welcome to the folly of relying on China to make so many of our goods and the components contained in goods assembled here.

It's not a folly if you are legislated to procure using the lowest cost, fully compliant bid.

[Marshsparrow]

I ordered a back door - was told 3 months, took 8 and was due to the hinges or some simple piece that held up the entire item. Seeing that with everything.

Our supply chain is vulnerable because of logistics. Single port entries, over capacity rail and truck lines, limited warehousing, not enough workers - one struggles and the rest is disrupted.

It is not a Canada issue - it's a global one.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/busin...act/index.html

[Djeffery]

I took my car to the dealership on the weekend for service. They had 6 new cars on the lot. I said to the service rep "I guess it's safe to go hang out in the showroom, there aren't any cars to try to sell me while I wait" (I did actually do a trade in once while I was getting something done, the salesperson came by and chatted, I said the numbers would never work out, he disappeared, came back 20 minutes later with numbers that worked lol). The rep said the cars out front are sold and they are only taking orders right now and hope to start filling them in February, possibly late January. This was at KIA. They did ask me if I was interested in selling my car lol.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by rofina

This is valid.

However, how do the rolling blackouts in China fit into this picture?

It would seem some of this is panic buying, as the supply chain might be collapsing at its very origin with Chinese factories being idled due to not enough energy supply.

That shock hasn't even hit us in earnest.

We have lots of future hits that are coming. We saw in the winter of 2020 that blockades did a number to our limited rail lines.

I feel that a ship at anchor for more than 12 hours waiting for a spot to unload is a weakness.

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think this stuff is properly accounted for in inflation metrics either. There are a lot of products that you can't buy at all, take a long time (even though nominal cost is the same, you lose the use of money and the item), or are much more of a hassle for some other reason (e.g. people would shop in the US in 2019, but now have to do some mix of flights/tests and it's usually just not worth it).

How much of your pay would you give up to be personally magically put back into a 2019 consumer bubble? The CPI says that is worth something on the order of 5% of income spent.

That is the inflation rate. Last I heard it was mid 4%. I fully expect interest rates to rise. This will also have an affect on the housing crisis.

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I took my car to the dealership on the weekend for service. They had 6 new cars on the lot. I said to the service rep "I guess it's safe to go hang out in the showroom, there aren't any cars to try to sell me while I wait" (I did actually do a trade in once while I was getting something done, the salesperson came by and chatted, I said the numbers would never work out, he disappeared, came back 20 minutes later with numbers that worked lol). The rep said the cars out front are sold and they are only taking orders right now and hope to start filling them in February, possibly late January. This was at KIA. They did ask me if I was interested in selling my car lol.

Local Ford dealership has been empty for the last year. Normally 20-50 vehicles fill their lot for sale. Not these days. 6 months if you are lucky.

[jlousa]

Problem has been brewing for years. As more MBAs talked their companies into moving to a Just in Time inventory system to save on both carrying costs as well as real estate to store things. Works great until an single part hiccup causes the whole supply change to grind to a halt. Hopefully we see these companies not be as "lean" going forward.

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I took my car to the dealership on the weekend for service. They had 6 new cars on the lot. I said to the service rep "I guess it's safe to go hang out in the showroom, there aren't any cars to try to sell me while I wait" (I did actually do a trade in once while I was getting something done, the salesperson came by and chatted, I said the numbers would never work out, he disappeared, came back 20 minutes later with numbers that worked lol). The rep said the cars out front are sold and they are only taking orders right now and hope to start filling them in February, possibly late January. This was at KIA. They did ask me if I was interested in selling my car lol.

I noticed that the other day I passed a GM Dealership and it was almost empty very few cars. This has been due to the chip shortage.

I heard a news story that the UK is having a booming business in Used Car sales because there is almost no inventory of new cars so used cars are selling very well and the prices have been going up.

Second-hand car prices surge amid new car shortage

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58993851

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

I noticed that the other day I passed a GM Dealership and it was almost empty very few cars. This has been due to the chip shortage.

I heard a news story that the UK is having a booming business in Used Car sales because there is almost no inventory of new cars so used cars are selling very well and the prices have been going up.

Second-hand car prices surge amid new car shortage

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58993851

Canada is no different. It is very much a sellers market.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jlousa

Problem has been brewing for years. As more MBAs talked their companies into moving to a Just in Time inventory system to save on both carrying costs as well as real estate to store things. Works great until an single part hiccup causes the whole supply change to grind to a halt. Hopefully we see these companies not be as "lean" going forward.

You could easily argue the benefits we've experienced for years/decades outweigh these temporary costs.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

You could easily argue the benefits we've experienced for years/decades outweigh these temporary costs.

This problem may be with us for years. So, not so temporary. JIT delivery has always been a weak point. I can see some manufacturers moving away from it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

This problem may be with us for years. So, not so temporary. JIT delivery has always been a weak point. I can see some manufacturers moving away from it.

We can put a value on how much value JIT has had over the years. What's the cost of these supply chain issues? Harder to evaluate I think.

Regardless, it's still the most efficient system. I don't see it going away.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

We can put a value on how much value JIT has had over the years. What's the cost of these supply chain issues? Harder to evaluate I think.

Regardless, it's still the most efficient system. I don't see it going away.

JIT has added a lot of value and efficiency.

The length of supply chains has changed dramatically over the last 20 years. A couple of decades ago, most things were completely built on the continent they were sold on. They still are for some things, but that's declined. In the case of electronics especially.

That logistics networks were able to keep up for so long is impressive.

A lot of the low inflation we experienced over that time was due to the ability of supply chains to be lengthened overseas without having JIT collapse. That's being tested right now.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by jonny24

How specialized of a bolt can it be? Should be able to get something that works at Brafasco or similar places.

A small bolt and bracket that alows you to set the front wheel angle. 2nd one already, it gets heavy use and you would figure that the manufaturers would make a more robust part. especially how expensive wheel chairs can be. ( plus they are not made for out enviroment).

Plus I don't think there has been a time when I have had to get a part for my car that I have waited lest than 3 months.

On a side note. Do not jump on the back of the wheelchair and go down a hill while your wife is sitting in it. just saying.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by jlousa

Problem has been brewing for years. As more MBAs talked their companies into moving to a Just in Time inventory system to save on both carrying costs as well as real estate to store things. Works great until an single part hiccup causes the whole supply change to grind to a halt. Hopefully we see these companies not be as "lean" going forward.

Ah yes, MBAs that learn a concept and apply it with great zeal, with hardly a critical thought about the logic behind the concept. Critical thinking is not exactly a strong point of MBAs. They get a decent education, but it is way to much oriented towards a "Jack of all trades" approach to naively solving very complex business problems/opportunities in a 2-hour (or less) war room session for which leadership inevitably gravitates towards the persons using the most buzz words.

synergistically optimize impactful innovation
dynamically right-shore ethical mindshare
proactively incentivize viral scrums
continually leverage other's robust e-markets
dynamically administrate reliable "outside the box" thinking

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by thewave46

That logistics networks were able to keep up for so long is impressive.

A lot of the low inflation we experienced over that time was due to the ability of supply chains to be lengthened overseas without having JIT collapse. That's being tested right now.

I agree. A lot of this stuff has happened behind the scenes and so the benefits aren't as obvious to people.

The ability to get through 2020 without a logistics crash was pretty amazing too. I don't know what we're seeing now, some kind of whiplash effect from that perhaps.

People need to consume less. I hope that message gets through after COVID.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

We can put a value on how much value JIT has had over the years. What's the cost of these supply chain issues? Harder to evaluate I think.

Regardless, it's still the most efficient system. I don't see it going away.

Well, we've had media hype over the 106 containers lost off Vancouver Island last week, yet little discussion of the fact that around the world hundreds of containers go overboard a day into our oceans. It's time to shrink supply chains.