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  #1  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 4:47 PM
JAYNYC JAYNYC is offline
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Your Projected 2030 CSA Rankings (vs. 2018 CSA Estimates)

2018 CSA Estimates:

1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area
3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area
5. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area
6. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
7. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area
8. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area
9. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
10. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area
11. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area
12. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area
13. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area
14. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL Combined Statistical Area
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area
17. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area
18. Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area
19. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area
20. St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL Combined Statistical Area


My 2030 Projections:

1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area
3. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area
5. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area
6. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area
7. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
8. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
9. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area
10. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area
11. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area
12. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area
13. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area
14. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL Combined Statistical Area
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area
17. Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area
18. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area
19. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area
20. Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area
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  #2  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 7:19 PM
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I would move Boston below DFW and Houston for 2030. These two cities are projected to add a lot more in that time frame.
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  #3  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 8:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
I would move Boston below DFW and Houston for 2030. These two cities are projected to add a lot more in that time frame.
I already have Boston below DFW for 2030.

Although Houston is on fire, I don't think Houston will surpass Boston by 2030. Unlike NYC & Philly, Boston's CSA is still growing at a decent clip, and is already 1 million+ ahead of Houston's.

2018 CSA Estimates & % Change From 2010:

6. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
8,285,407
+4.97%

9. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
7,197,883
+17.72%
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  #4  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 1:01 AM
Sun Belt Sun Belt is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
I would move Boston below DFW and Houston for 2030. These two cities are projected to add a lot more in that time frame.
There's no reason to believe Texas cities won't slow down, especially compared to high tax, older established cities.
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  #5  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 2:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
There's no reason to believe Texas cities won't slow down, especially compared to high tax, older established cities.
Houston is already slowing down to some extent and the rest of Texas could as well as the rest of the country improves economically opening up more options for people to work/ live rather than just the sunbelt cities. I just think it will at least top Boston in the next 10-11 years. I lived there (briefly) and much of the region is pretty stagnant where as virtually everything within 75 miles of downtown (Houston) is growing. Boston and the area around it is just loaded with tons of decent sized MSA's in their own right; Providence; Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, etc...

Last edited by JManc; Sep 15, 2019 at 5:04 AM. Reason: clarification
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  #6  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 4:38 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Houston is already slowing down to some extent and the rest of Texas could as well as the rest of the country improves economically opening up more options for people to work/ live rather than just the sunbelt cities. I just think it will at least top Boston in the next 10-11 years. I lived there (briefly) and much of the region is pretty stagnant where as virtually everything within 75 miles of downtown is growing. Boston and the area around it is just loaded with tons of decent sized MSA's in their own right; Providence; Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, etc...
As of 2018, the Boston CSA had approximately 1,087,524 more residents than the Houston CSA (8,285,407 vs. 7,197,883).

Houston's CSA gained approximately 1,083,321 residents between 2010 and 2018.

Boston's CSA gained approximately 392,031 residents between 2010 and 2018.

So even if Boston's CSA only gained half as many residents (196,015) between 2018 and 2030 - a 12 year period - as it did during that 8 year period, Houston's CSA (which is slowing down as you already noted) would have to gain 1,283,539 residents between 2018 and 2030 just to tie Boston's CSA, and both of those scenarios appear unlikely.
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  #7  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 1:54 PM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Houston is already slowing down to some extent and the rest of Texas could as well as the rest of the country improves economically opening up more options for people to work/ live rather than just the sunbelt cities. I just think it will at least top Boston in the next 10-11 years. I lived there (briefly) and much of the region is pretty stagnant where as virtually everything within 75 miles of downtown (Houston) is growing. Boston and the area around it is just loaded with tons of decent sized MSA's in their own right; Providence; Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, etc...
Houston has slowed because it is still dependent on energy prices (at least it did not go into a depression like the 80s). Will Austin and San Antonio be combined into a CSA? It's odd that Boston-Providence and DC-Baltimore are CSA, but Chicago-Rockford-Milwaukee are not.
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  #8  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 2:07 PM
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
It's odd that Boston-Providence and DC-Baltimore are CSA, but Chicago-Rockford-Milwaukee are not.
Not really.

Downtown to downtown, Boston/Providence & DC/Baltimore are in the 30 - 40 mile range (as the crow flies).

Downtown Chicago to downtown Milwaukee is 81 miles. Distance matters.
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  #9  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 5:33 PM
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
Will Austin and San Antonio be combined into a CSA?
Based on daily commute data alone, it certainly should; that said, downtown to downtown is ~79 miles, and although the unofficial I-35 southernmost and northernmost outskirts cities of Kyle (Austin) and Schertz (San Antonio) are separated by only 43 miles, the case could be made that the distance between the two metros is still a bit too far.
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  #10  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 1:59 PM
Sun Belt Sun Belt is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Houston is already slowing down to some extent and the rest of Texas could as well as the rest of the country improves economically opening up more options for people to work/ live rather than just the sunbelt cities. I just think it will at least top Boston in the next 10-11 years. I lived there (briefly) and much of the region is pretty stagnant where as virtually everything within 75 miles of downtown (Houston) is growing. Boston and the area around it is just loaded with tons of decent sized MSA's in their own right; Providence; Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, etc...
Assuming US population projections come somewhat true, those people have to live somewhere. Texas has the land and the business climate to absorb a large share of those people. Old New England, does not.
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  #11  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 8:39 PM
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I can imagine San Antonio giving Charlotte a run for that number 20 slot by 2030.
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  #12  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 10:03 PM
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Arbitrary silliness.
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  #13  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 10:11 PM
JAYNYC JAYNYC is offline
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
Arbitrary silliness.
Sure, if "arbitrary" means "based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist".
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  #14  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
Sure, if "arbitrary" means "based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist".
How does one separate NYC CSA from Philadelphia CSA “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?
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  #15  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 10:23 PM
JAYNYC JAYNYC is offline
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
How does one separate NYC CSA from Philadelphia CSA “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?
How does one separate Alabama from Georgia “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

How does one separate Canada from the United States “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

How does one separate the Pacific Ocean from the Southern Ocean “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

Your point?
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  #16  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 10:27 PM
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You just proved it
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  #17  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 10:44 PM
JAYNYC JAYNYC is offline
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You just proved it
Great, thrilled to know that anything that can be proven based on factual data and documented trends that actually exist is synonymous with arbitrary silliness.
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  #18  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2019, 11:01 PM
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Again, how does one separate NYC CSA from Philadelphia CSA?

It's a legitimate question. If there is factual data and documented trends, as you state, to prove that it can be done without being arbitrary, then I'm seriously interested in understanding how.

For example, why is Trenton officially part of NYC when geographically and functionally it is much more closely associated with Philly? And considering that Bucks County displays major commuting patterns into the NYC metro area, why is it solely part of Philly? Is the Delaware River the dividing line? If so, why is Allentown part of NYC? It's all BS. The answer is, you cannot separate the two via non-arbitrary means. Where do you split Jersey?
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  #19  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 12:59 AM
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Phoenix doesn't have a CSA. It's MSA will likely pass Boston by 2020.
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  #20  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2019, 1:22 AM
JAYNYC JAYNYC is offline
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
Phoenix doesn't have a CSA.
13

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area
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