How would you compare US cities' recovery from COVID vs. Great Recession?

[Sir610Jawnman]

Both the catastrophic events of the 2008-09 Great Recession and Covid-19 have put a damper on the momentum of urban revival/growth and the major cities in the US have come out of them differently. My home city, Philadelphia is right now the gold standard for urban recovery IMO (not a fact, so please don't call for a ban) and right now it's probably the most vibrant in history and Philly has come out of Covid better, cleaner, much safer, and a major tourist and migration destination as parts of the US continue to deteriorate due to politics. Compare now to Philly around 2009 or early 2010s, it's night and day. The city only made small gains after the Recession and if you were lurking on this forum back then you'd be envious of other cities making major overhauls and with construction booms while Philly just sat by and only copied ideas from other cities after they've been successful rather than innovating itself.

So do you think major cities (or your hometown) recovered better after Covid or the Recession? Or are any cities that have been permanently scarred by both? And not just Philly, but by my observations cities this round are doing better at recovery than in 2010 and we're seeing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland make comebacks and reverse perpetual post-war decay. I mean, who would've imagined all the abandoned Downtown Detroit buildings redeveloped and filled in back then?

[SFBruin]

I didn't live in Seattle pre-Covid, but I think that the city is doing fine.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Sir610Jawnman

So do you think major cities (or your hometown) recovered better after Covid or the Recession? Or are any cities that have been permanently scarred by both? And not just Philly, but by my observations cities this round are doing better at recovery than in 2010 and we're seeing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland make comebacks and reverse perpetual post-war decay. I mean, who would've imagined all the abandoned Downtown Detroit buildings redeveloped and filled in back then?

Downtown Detroit is much better off than it was post 2008 Financial Crisis, but it has definitely not fully recovered from pre-COVID times. I don't think any city has to be honest.

Even though the Financial Crisis was brutal for NYC, COVID was much worse. Superstorm Sandy feels like a better analogy to COVID for NYC, though. I worked in lower Manhattan at the time and the storm made large parts of the area uninhabitable for months. My office building was shut for a month and that was my first experience of mandatory work from home.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Sir610Jawnman

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So do you think major cities (or your hometown) recovered better after Covid or the Recession? Or are any cities that have been permanently scarred by both? And not just Philly, but by my observations cities this round are doing better at recovery than in 2010 and we're seeing the likes of Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland make comebacks and reverse perpetual post-war decay. I mean, who would've imagined all the abandoned Downtown Detroit buildings redeveloped and filled in back then?

I think the financial crisis and the pandemic affected completely different parts of cities.

The financial crisis wiped out a ton of regular residential neighborhoods. Families lost jobs, lost their houses, properties fell into foreclosure and were often abandoned and demolished.

The pandemic mostly affected downtown offices and mid day retail venues, but most of the families in neighborhoods are doing better than ever with a good job market.

I think the former left deeper scars, while the latter is mostly about how banks and large developers would prefer to restructure their properties.

[mhays]

Seattle's core tourist districts and Downtown fringes are gangbusters, busier than ever. The old office core is only half back however. The touristy areas tend to thin out in the winter but the locals and winter visitors keep them reasonably busy. The Market's best-known places will always have massive lines.

[MayDay]

I think Cleveland's civic leadership at multiple levels (government, nonprofit, corporate community) learned quite a few lessons after the recession that laid the groundwork for recovery from the impacts of Covid. Fwiw, I'm a 51 year old Gen X'r and my take is from living and working in/near downtown Cleveland and following the built environment/economic/planning scene for the better part of my adult life. Do I know the data that's out there - of course. Is it the end-all/be-all of the narrative? If you think so, anyone is entitled to their opinion but you know what they say about opinions

Not to say the city has fully recovered from either, or honestly some of the ongoing legacy challenges that started before I was born - disinvestment and other impacts from redlining/systemically racist practices, sprawl, generational poverty, economic shifts from a manufacturing economy, etc. I hope those (at least some) might be resolved in my lifetime but it's weird to think based on average life expectancy, that might be 25ish years or about the time I've been a member of this forum I'll leave it at that but happy to post more if that piques any interest.

[mhays]

To really invigorate places like Cleveland, you might need a combination of high regional population growth, limits on sprawl, AND a lot of good work by the city and its organizations. This might be possible as the South gets warmer, even with the half-back scenario taking much of the returners.

That seems possible in the coming few decades, with a gradual ramping up. The good news is that a little momentum can help sustain itself and create bigger momentum. Limiting outward sprawl might be tough in region that's already a patchwork of towns and other sprawl.

[chris08876]

Traffic has been horrendous this summer so I'd say the Tri-State is back to business as usual. Tons of hiring signs everywhere in the Lehigh Valley in PA. NJ is busy as usual. The state is actually going through a multi-housing boom, NJ... I know... I know... surprising.

And a lot of road work, tons of road construction. Even out in Eastern PA, road after road either being fixed or some expansion, and taking forever because they have one guy on the excavator while 8 others watch, so a project drags on for ages. Back to pre-Covid BS.

Auto accidents are on the rise, a sign of a recovering economy. Trucks crashing, things of that nature. Means the supply lines are going strong.

[pdxtex]

Portland's recovery is interesting. Id say the social functionality of the city was more intact post recession but people have more money post covid. The unemployment rate is ridiculously low and construction is high everywhere. For a city that's supposed to be living a beleaguered existence, people continue to pour money into the area. I see tons of newcomers and out of state license plates everywhere. Downtown proper is not good tho. With the passing of our drug legislation, Oregon has become the hot destination for American addicts. So there is that. Id rate the city 7/10, would move here again.

[PHL10]

Originally Posted by Sir610Jawnman

My home city, Philadelphia is right now the gold standard for urban recovery IMO (not a fact, so please don't call for a ban) and right now it's probably the most vibrant in history and Philly has come out of Covid better, cleaner, much safer, and a major tourist and migration destination as parts of the US continue to deteriorate due to politics. Compare now to Philly around 2009 or early 2010s, it's night and day.

Having lived in Center City through both, I would respectfully disagree. Philadelphia is doing ok, we are recovering but a lot of the successes it’s won between 2008 and 2020 haven’t yet recovered. Retail, public safety, and SEPTA ridership immediately come to mind. Also, the consequences of the office vacancy being high, related to downsizing and WFH haven’t been fully felt yet but it’s coming.

[jmecklenborg]

No comparison. The 2008-09 collapse was far, far worse. Crews walked away from construction projects all over the United States. We had a brand-new condo tower in my city that only had two occupied condos for several years. Another one was only 1/3 filled until about 2015 and the most expensive 5~ units didn't sell until about 10 years after the building opened.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Traffic has been horrendous this summer so I'd say the Tri-State is back to business as usual. Tons of hiring signs everywhere in the Lehigh Valley in PA. NJ is busy as usual. The state is actually going through a multi-housing boom, NJ... I know... I know... surprising.

And a lot of road work, tons of road construction. Even out in Eastern PA, road after road either being fixed or some expansion, and taking forever because they have one guy on the excavator while 8 others watch, so a project drags on for ages. Back to pre-Covid BS.

Auto accidents are on the rise, a sign of a recovering economy. Trucks crashing, things of that nature. Means the supply lines are going strong.

i have noticed its been all good in downtown brooklyn on flatbush

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I think the financial crisis and the pandemic affected completely different parts of cities.

The financial crisis wiped out a ton of regular residential neighborhoods. Families lost jobs, lost their houses, properties fell into foreclosure and were often abandoned and demolished.

The pandemic mostly affected downtown offices and mid day retail venues, but most of the families in neighborhoods are doing better than ever with a good job market.

I think the former left deeper scars, while the latter is mostly about how banks and large developers would prefer to restructure their properties.

+1

As a fellow Chicagoan, this totally aligns with perspective on the windy city.

Maybe these dynamics played out a little differently in less hyper-centralized cities?

[downtownpdx]

Downtown Portland is fairly busy on the weekends, even surpassing 2019 foot traffic levels on a recent weekend. But weekdays we're at 40% of 2019 levels. So I guess people still want to come into the city to play, but not to work. This will be a long term trend like everywhere else I guess.

As is the case everywhere I'm sure, the overall job market recovered quickly and is strong right now, as opposed to the long slow recovery post Great Recession. But as that recovery led to strong inner city growth with software jobs etc, this one is strong everywhere but downtown.

Definitely much more homelessness with this crisis, partly since housing prices just kept rising amidst tight inventory compared to the glut and price collapse of 2008, and partly due to the drug abuse and related mental health issues. But the city is making progress on this.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

i have noticed its been all good in downtown brooklyn on flatbush

Yes sir, that is a sign of things returning to normal. Last time I was in the city, I had to stand on the train, because not a goddamn seat was available and I remember there was this Korean guy who got on at exchange plaza and said, "this is transit in America?". Sure is! Back to normal.

Also the "Jesus is our savior" guy is back, with the long hair and wooden sign, another sign of normalcy. Other than that... bike lanes are being blocked, the guy with the broken beats headphones that hangs out outside of the WTC Path is back and ambulances going to an emergency have to wait in traffic, like the rest of us. The heart attack can wait. Back to normalcy!

Anyways, trains and transit bring people together. We all can come together and share a new Covid variant. Creates bonds amongst people. High quality air as we are inches from each other on a train packed tighter than sardines in a can.

[pdxtex]

Remember all those stories growing up about how that weird old guy downtown got so rich? The answer was oh he bought back in the 70s when real estate was cheap! The recession was definitely that moment, now not so much. I remember Pearl District condos that go for 700k now were selling for 250k and 5000 sq ft McMansions in Portland's Chinese Beverly Hills were 300k. Crazy.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

Remember all those stories growing up about how that weird old guy downtown got so rich? The answer was oh he bought back in the 70s when real estate was cheap! The recession was definitely that moment, now not so much. I remember Pearl District condos that go for 700k now were selling for 250k and 5000 sq ft McMansions in Portland's Chinese Beverly Hills were 300k. Crazy.

Back in 2011 or so, I lived in one of four houses in a row owned by the same landlord, a certain Daniel Caleb Wells. He was a coke head and lost two of the four to foreclosure. Look at what Deutsche Bank auctioned these houses for:




Here are the houses back in 2007:


That tree behind the green one was struck by lightning and fell behind the white house, where I usually parked my car, but luckily I was out of town. Because the house was in foreclosure, the tree sat there for upwards of a year, and drug dealers started hiding drugs in the fallen tree. So I was stuck having to walk to my car for a few months with drug dealers standing around a fallen tree. It was an absolutely absurd situation.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by chris08876

And a lot of road work, tons of road construction. Even out in Eastern PA, road after road either being fixed or some expansion, and taking forever because they have one guy on the excavator while 8 others watch, so a project drags on for ages. Back to pre-Covid BS.

• Video Link

Originally Posted by PHL10

Having lived in Center City through both, I would respectfully disagree. Philadelphia is doing ok, we are recovering but a lot of the successes it’s won between 2008 and 2020 haven’t yet recovered. Retail, public safety, and SEPTA ridership immediately come to mind. Also, the consequences of the office vacancy being high, related to downsizing and WFH haven’t been fully felt yet but it’s coming.

I've been around through both also and agree with you.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Yes sir, that is a sign of things returning to normal. Last time I was in the city, I had to stand on the train, because not a goddamn seat was available and I remember there was this Korean guy who got on at exchange plaza and said, "this is transit in America?". Sure is! Back to normal.

Also the "Jesus is our savior" guy is back, with the long hair and wooden sign, another sign of normalcy. Other than that... bike lanes are being blocked, the guy with the broken beats headphones that hangs out outside of the WTC Path is back and ambulances going to an emergency have to wait in traffic, like the rest of us. The heart attack can wait. Back to normalcy!

Anyways, trains and transit bring people together. We all can come together and share a new Covid variant. Creates bonds amongst people. High quality air as we are inches from each other on a train packed tighter than sardines in a can.

now thats what i’m talking about.

we had the crazy popular savannah bananas in staten this weekend at the ballpark. sold out and they said 50k on a waiting list for tix. lots of kids around in bananas merch. and another big family friendly 50th anniversay of hiphop event we went to at stapleton waterfront w/graffiti, merch, food, rap battles & of course ringled by a wu tanger — raekwon. so all regular degular here. ces’t normal.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

and another big family friendly 50th anniversay of hiphop event we went to at stapleton waterfront w/graffiti, merch, food, rap battles & of course ringled by a wu tanger — raekwon. so all regular degular here. ces’t normal.

There were so many people at the one in Brooklyn last Saturday. But apparently more celebs showed up to the one in Queens the next day, so Brooklyn's show was pretty disappointing.