Quote:
Originally Posted by M1EK
CM's spent between $120M and $200M on the Red Line so far, depending on who you trust. They promised to spend $45M, promised to seek $45M from the Feds (a lie; they never intended to do so because the Feds would never have played along due to low ridership projections); and have had some overruns, obviously.
The 2000 LRT plan relied on a 50% federal match (not the 80% asserted by revisionist historians) and using ALL of CM's 1-cent sales tax revenue. By now, it'd be practically done. Some (not all) of the problems with implementing the Red Line would likely have been avoided due to the fact that the 2000 plan involved ripping up the old track and putting down 2 new ones with caternary wire (probably NEW signalling at the same time; the caternary structures also allowing for a better system for signalling than the ridiculous hack they're doing now).
If you add up the amount they've spent on the Red Line and the amount returned to local governments via the 1/4 cent plan, they've probably lost about all of the $500M in local money it would have taken to get the 2000 LRT plan done.
The other way to look at it is that the $150M blown just on the Red Line would have been half of the local money required for the city's urban rail line (ballpark $600M).
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Talk about revisionist history!
IF the the 2000 light rail election had passed (and Al Gore was President from 2001-2008) the world would definitely be a better place today.
IF Cap Metro used the $105 M they spent on the 32 mile Red Line they could have built 3 miles of light rail AT MOST ($35 M/mile) Considering that the 3 miles would have been 100% in street in a highly urbanized area, the utility relocation, street reconstruction, streetscaping and possible property impacts would have added up to a lot more in reality.
IF they received 50% Federal match, they MIGHT have been able to build 5 miles or so ($42 M / mile). Of course, it would be highly unlikely that a 5 mile system would even qualify for New Starts. That would get to somewhere around Koenig Lane, far from any freeway that would feed a park and ride. Who would drive 10 or 20 miles on a freeway only to have to exit 5 miles short of the destination, drive on urban arterials for a mile or two, and transfer to transit for the last 5 miles? The Small Starts program, intended to fund shorter streetcar projects like the City's Urban Rail, but used by the Bush FTA to push BRT over LRT did not exist until 2005.
IF Cap Metro did not have to return $110 M in 1/4 cent funds to member Cities between 2001 and 2004 (a reasonable assumption), they could have built MAYBE 7 to 10 miles of light rail ($61 M to $43 M / mile) IF they received a 50% Federal match. Of course the City would not be able to build Cesar Chavez Esplanade, Brazos Streetscape, 2nd Street Streetscape, Pfluger Bridge Extension, and many other ped, bike and other mobility improvements.
7 miles would get to around Lamar / Anderson, where a relocated North Lamar Transfer Center and Park and Ride would have access from 183. Again, we don't know that it actually would have been eligible for New Starts, since it wouldn't extend very far into suburban commuter sheds.
10 miles would get to around the Pickle Campus, where in addition to strong potential future growth, a park and ride would have access from 360, MOPAC and 183. Again, there is no way to know if it would have been as competitive as the McNeil MOS.
IF Cap Metro had any hope of being able to afford $1 B for the full 18 miles to McNeil, they needed more than a 50% Federal match. Prior to 2000, the FTA allowed up to 80% Federal match for New Starts, but since New Starts is a highly competitive process, the higher the local match, the more likely it would be to get a Full Funding Agreement. But since the Supreme Court didn't award the Presidency to Al Gore, 50% became the maximum allowable Federal Match.
IF you don't believe my estimates, please refer to the comparable costs in the City Urban Rail presentation.
IF Cap Metro stayed the course in 2004 and went into the election with a shorter, more expensive (per mile) light rail line that did even less for suburbanites, and IF the ever-growing number of suburban voters didn't come out to support THEIR war time President, Cap Metro wouldn't even have the $110 M in 1/4 cent funds to make up the match since it had all been committed by then.
As for timing, IF the 2000 vote went our way, it would have taken 4 or 5 years to complete engineering, begin procurement of vehicles, and negotiate a Full Funding Agreement. Only then, could construction, purchase, manufacture, delivery and testing of vehicles begin, all of which would take another 4 or 5 years. If everything went well, we would have been riding light rail in the last year at most. A light rail line authorized in 2004 would barely be under construction by now, even IF they could figure out how to pay for it.
That's a lot of IFs. I wish the 2000 election had gone differently. I'm just about as big a fan of light rail as you will meet. I would have benefitted directly if light rail had passed in ways that I will never benefit from the Red Line. But I'm not so selfish that I don't support other transit investments that benefit other parts of the community. Since nobody has invented a wayback machine yet, the best we can do is support the Urban Rail plan, and push to expand it to benefit as much of the community as possible. I will also continue to support commuter rail improvements and expansion because it will benefit the larger regional community, even if it doesn't directly benefit me.
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