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  #81  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 12:16 AM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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I still think you guys are off-base in your claims that TUP and others want inner cities to fail.

Most everyone on here, even those who reside in suburbs, wants to see downtowns and inner cities do well.

But at least in the short term, there is a lot of potential for them to lose a bit of population. This is unfortunate as many have posted some nice gains in recent years and decades.
I don't think anyone said he wanted cities to fail. Or at least I didn't. But I think this is a classic case of people not understanding the motivations of people who are not like them. People who are inclined to live in NYC don't just suddenly trade that lifestyle to live in a cul-de-sac in suburban New Jersey. There is no big epiphany occurring. The most common emotion of city dwellers is the lamenting that New York is temporarily in a coma, like almost everywhere else in America.
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  #82  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 12:20 AM
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Discounting all the moneyed people buying second homes and renters buying first secondary homes, this whole thing will be temporary.

I have heard a lot of people with (again) means, saying they are thinking of temporarily jumping ship, till things die down. Their privileged enough to do that. Even at that, it won’t be a flood or anything. Enough to excite suburban real estate agents, who need it really.
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  #83  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 12:51 PM
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I know most of you guys can't read French, but just to give you some examples here are some articles from my French-speaking corner of America about the same phenomenon.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/20...uient-la-ville

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2020/06/...n-centenaire-1

https://www.journaldequebec.com/2020...ar-la-pandemie

Concerns about the future of (normally very lively) downtown Montreal. You don't need to know French to get the headline.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...val-post-covid
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  #84  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 12:55 PM
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  #85  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 12:58 PM
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Oh yeah, and to all the people who are saying it's only the privileged class of people who can afford it who are doing this... aren't those precisely the people you want to retain in the city?

Inner cities lost much of that population at one point, and worked hard to win a good chunk of them back in the recent decade or so.
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  #86  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 1:03 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I don't think anyone said he wanted cities to fail. Or at least I didn't. But I think this is a classic case of people not understanding the motivations of people who are not like them. People who are inclined to live in NYC don't just suddenly trade that lifestyle to live in a cul-de-sac in suburban New Jersey. There is no big epiphany occurring. The most common emotion of city dwellers is the lamenting that New York is temporarily in a coma, like almost everywhere else in America.
That argument may work for some, but I’ve lived in central cities for years (DC, Manhattan, Queens, Central City Philly, Chicago).

Also, I think you are perhaps overstating the love city dwellers have for their location. Remember, most people aren’t SSP forumers.

With the pandemic, restaurants and bars closed, and downtown offices mostly empty, the benefits of city life vanish pretty quickly. Why pay the high rents? Why not move in with Mom and Dad in the burbs? Besides, this pandemic has no expiration date as far as we know.
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  #87  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 1:12 PM
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With the pandemic, restaurants and bars closed, and downtown offices mostly empty, the benefits of city life vanish pretty quickly. Why pay the high rents? Why not move in with Mom and Dad in the burbs? Besides, this pandemic has no expiration date as far as we know.
The pandemic ends as soon as there's a vaccine, which is certainly by end-of-year, and very likely earlier, as early as October.

The idea that people will permanently discard their living preferences because they're cooped up for a few months is nonsense. And if they did, they wouldn't move to suburbs, they'd move to the country. Suburbs have the same issues with bars, restaurants and amenities curtailed, socialization restricted, and office parks empty. Main streets in suburbia are ghost towns.

And the idea that young professionals permanently wish to live with Mom and Dad is silly.
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  #88  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 1:16 PM
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Aside wealthy people, what's the point of leaving the city to get a big house in suburbs? Who will and how much cost to keep and clean it?

Also, if people who like the city is actually moving because COVID-19, they will regret. Everything is close now, but they will open up on the next months and they'll be trapped in a big and expensive house far from everything. Boredom.
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  #89  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:06 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
That argument may work for some, but I’ve lived in central cities for years (DC, Manhattan, Queens, Central City Philly, Chicago).

Also, I think you are perhaps overstating the love city dwellers have for their location. Remember, most people aren’t SSP forumers.

With the pandemic, restaurants and bars closed, and downtown offices mostly empty, the benefits of city life vanish pretty quickly. Why pay the high rents? Why not move in with Mom and Dad in the burbs? Besides, this pandemic has no expiration date as far as we know.
But you still chose to move to the suburbs, so you're not examining this from the pov of people who want to be in cities. The people who are similar to you in temperament will probably flee to the burbs, and you'd be good at understanding that motivation. But maybe you have a blind spot about the motivations for people who are not so similar to you.
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  #90  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:13 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
But you still chose to move to the suburbs, so you're not examining this from the pov of people who want to be in cities. The people who are similar to you in temperament will probably flee to the burbs, and you'd be good at understanding that motivation. But maybe you have a blind spot about the motivations for people who are not so similar to you.
Not everyone who lives in the city lives there "by choice" and not everyone who lives in the suburbs lives there "by choice". Far from it.

There is a whole slew of factors that influence where we live.

The real question is if and how this pandemic will for a lot of people tilt these factors away from the city and towards suburbia, exurbia and beyond.

I think it's obvious that there is a "tilt" going on. What kind of legs it has remains to be seen.
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  #91  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:25 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Not everyone who lives in the city lives there "by choice" and not everyone who lives in the suburbs lives there "by choice". Far from it.

There is a whole slew of factors that influence where we live.

The real question is if and how this pandemic will for a lot of people tilt these factors away from the city and towards suburbia, exurbia and beyond.

I think it's obvious that there is a "tilt" going on. What kind of legs it has remains to be seen.
I think that anyone who lives in the city but can afford a mortgage on a house in the suburbs already had the luxury of choice.

Let's play this out. Let's say that being close to work is keeping a lot of people in NYC that would otherwise not live in NYC, and let's say that those people are suddenly enabled to work remotely from a place of their choosing. Why would they choose an expensive NY suburb over leaving the area altogether? Why not get a mansion in suburban Cleveland, in a great school district, for the same price as a Brooklyn studio apartment? Why not get a McMansion outside of Atlanta, or Charlotte, or Austin, or Dallas, for what you'd pay for a modest house in northern New Jersey?
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  #92  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:35 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
But you still chose to move to the suburbs, so you're not examining this from the pov of people who want to be in cities. The people who are similar to you in temperament will probably flee to the burbs, and you'd be good at understanding that motivation. But maybe you have a blind spot about the motivations for people who are not so similar to you.
But I also continue to accrue anecdotal evidence:

A) As a doctor I am seeing countless 20 somethings who've moved back in with their parents after the pandemic

B) A lot of Universities are moving to online this fall

C) As a landlord in urban environments, I have had many tenants leave and move back in with their parents (even while paying rent), and am having a much tougher time filling my apartments despite rent decreases. Reasons often being given are ("I decided to find a place in the suburbs"). I wasn't getting that kind of explanation--like ever--in years past. All of this is completely unprecedented, in my experience.

I think you are putting too much stock in the "people who don't think like you" explanation, no offense. Every single trend before my eyes points to a temporary blip in a preference for suburban living for the time being. I too hope it ends
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  #93  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:42 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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But I also continue to accrue anecdotal evidence:

A) As a doctor I am seeing countless 20 somethings who've moved back in with their parents after the pandemic

B) A lot of Universities are moving to online this fall

C) As a landlord in urban environments, I have had many tenants leave and move back in with their parents (even while paying rent), and am having a much tougher time filling my apartments despite rent decreases. Reasons often being given are ("I decided to find a place in the suburbs"). I wasn't getting that kind of explanation--like ever--in years past.

I think you are putting too much stock in the "people who don't think like you" explanation, no offense. Every single trend before my eyes points to a temporary blip in a preference for suburban living for the time being. I too hope it ends
I agree with those points. They are all anecdotes that I have also witnessed, as I mentioned earlier in this thread:

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I know people who have left the city to stay with their relatives in the suburbs or other cities, but I don't know people who intend to permanently settle in suburban NY because of the pandemic.
But I don't think these are permanent shifts in behavior (which I think we agree on), so I wouldn't call them "opportunities". These are temporary situations. I don't think the pandemic will lead to some mad scramble for real estate in suburban NY (or suburban anywhere?).
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  #94  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:44 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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The pandemic ends as soon as there's a vaccine, which is certainly by end-of-year, and very likely earlier, as early as October
We hope so!

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The idea that people will permanently discard their living preferences because they're cooped up for a few months is nonsense..........

And the idea that young professionals permanently wish to live with Mom and Dad is silly.
^ Wow, it amazes me how unproductive discussions are on this forum for the simple fact that certain people willfully choose to not read what other people are saying. Even when they make the same point OVER and OVER again. Really gets you wondering if these discussions are even worth the effort.

All of these statements quoted were from this very thread:

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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I don't think there is an "urban reckoning" per se
Quote:
this may ultimately end when we finally cure ourselves of Covid-19,.
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
If you can buy urban real estate at a good price during these doldrums and hang onto it, you will probably be rewarded in the next 1-2 years as cities rebound. And I think they will rebound BIG TIME.
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I don't disagree that we can't say whether or not this will be a long term trend. I would gather that it won't be.
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I don't know how many times I need to keep repeating that, or the fact that I agree with you that I doubt that these are long term trends.
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
And for the damn 10th time, I am not saying that these changes are permanent. Is it that hard for people on this forum to read anything?
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  #95  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:46 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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But I also continue to accrue anecdotal evidence:

A) As a doctor I am seeing countless 20 somethings who've moved back in with their parents after the pandemic

B) A lot of Universities are moving to online this fall

C) As a landlord in urban environments, I have had many tenants leave and move back in with their parents (even while paying rent), and am having a much tougher time filling my apartments despite rent decreases. Reasons often being given are ("I decided to find a place in the suburbs"). I wasn't getting that kind of explanation--like ever--in years past. All of this is completely unprecedented, in my experience.
Again, these are all temporary phenomenon.

20-somethings don't want to live with their parents; many presently have no choice. And if they stayed with Mom and Dad forever, that would be a catastrophe for the overall housing market, suburbs included.

The vast majority of universities are opening for at least partial in-person instruction this fall. Those that don't will be in-person by spring or summer.

Why are you surprised that it's tough to lease up apartments right now? Unless it's an AirBnB-type property in the forest or on a lake, who is making a permanent move in the midst of a pandemic? We're looking to buy a larger home but are waiting for certainty in the political environment and for sellers to capitulate.
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  #96  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:53 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Again, these are all temporary phenomenon.
.
For the FUCKING LOVE OF GOD!!! Look at the post just above yours

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  #97  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 3:57 PM
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I've actually heard of a housing crunch in Hyde Park as UChicago dorms move to single occupancy and many students want to go back to campus (although UChicago will have a mix of online and in-person teaching... but of course people will want to be away from their parents anyway).
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  #98  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 4:45 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I think that anyone who lives in the city but can afford a mortgage on a house in the suburbs already had the luxury of choice.

Let's play this out. Let's say that being close to work is keeping a lot of people in NYC that would otherwise not live in NYC, and let's say that those people are suddenly enabled to work remotely from a place of their choosing. Why would they choose an expensive NY suburb over leaving the area altogether? Why not get a mansion in suburban Cleveland, in a great school district, for the same price as a Brooklyn studio apartment? Why not get a McMansion outside of Atlanta, or Charlotte, or Austin, or Dallas, for what you'd pay for a modest house in northern New Jersey?
I used to have this view, which is to say "if you're gonna live in a McMansion in New Jersey or Connecticut, may as well live in suburban Omaha or suburban Houston".

But this fails to take into account the multiplicity of individual people's needs, wants, affinities, preferences, etc.

It also supposes that the NJ or CT McMansion dwellers, simply because of their place of residence, can't possibly be interested in or value the urbane delights of the city.

Which of course is totally ridiculous.

Just as it's ridiculous to assume that just because someone lives in one of the NYC boroughs (OK, maybe not Staten Island ) that they will automatically be more interested in the Met and MOMA.

For all the much-vaunted openness of urbane urbanites, sometimes I wonder if these people ever actually talk to people outside their immediate bubble of peers. Because those NJ, CT and LI McMansion dwellers are right there next to you at the cool Manhattan cafés, and the vernissages at the Brooklyn art gallery.
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  #99  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 5:25 PM
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I am so sick of this coronavirus urban area discourse from all sides. It's like everyone has put their brains inside of a blender and set it on high since March.

Your armchair predictions are worthless. Media, individuals, just shut the hell up.
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  #100  
Old Posted Jul 14, 2020, 5:32 PM
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I am so sick of this coronavirus urban area discourse from all sides. It's like everyone has put their brains inside of a blender and set it on high since March.

Your armchair predictions are worthless. Media, individuals, just shut the hell up.
Did you ever stop to think that some people might actually be concerned that much of the progress that downtowns and inner cities have made since 2000 could be lost as a result of this?

And that maybe that's not really an inappropriate topic on a skyscraper and urban affairs forum?
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