Halifax Population & Growth

[Dmajackson]

Does anyone have the scientific/economic factors behind why Saint John is all over the map? The poor city can't seem to catch a decent break. I'ts growing but just barely most of the time.

Great to see the top three getting so many people. 9'700 between them in one year is impressive. That equals a combined 1.3% growth rate.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

This is good to see

If Halifax's population growth holds steady, the City should reach half a million people within the next decade.

...

This will certainly be the case if the City's intraprovincial immigration increases, which is reasonable to expect from Cape Breton Island and the South Shore, as well as interprovincial sources of population, such as from PEI and New Brunswick.

That's true. But we still have to look at stemming outflow to other regions. With every passing generation, there are fewer and fewer young people in rural Nova Scotia, but they still remain the city's primary source of new residents. Once the median age of the rural NS has shot well past the child-bearing years, the city's growth will stall out, unless we become a legitimate draw for people in other regions, and some international immigration (which is already happening, to a small degree).

[Wishblade]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

That's true. But we still have to look at stemming outflow to other regions. With every passing generation, there are fewer and fewer young people in rural Nova Scotia, but they still remain the city's primary source of new residents. Once the median age of the rural NS has shot well past the child-bearing years, the city's growth will stall out, unless we become a legitimate draw for people in other regions, and some international immigration (which is already happening, to a small degree).

That's not too much of a worry considering most new people who move here aren't from within the province but rather from other provinces. Even international migration is quickly catching up to our intraprovincial growth now.

[someone123]

Actually migration from rural NS accounts for a comparatively small percentage of population growth in Halifax.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

That's true. But we still have to look at stemming outflow to other regions. With every passing generation, there are fewer and fewer young people in rural Nova Scotia, but they still remain the city's primary source of new residents. Once the median age of the rural NS has shot well past the child-bearing years, the city's growth will stall out, unless we become a legitimate draw for people in other regions, and some international immigration (which is already happening, to a small degree).

You make an exellent point.
Nova Scotia is a limited pool of less than a million people from which Halifax may draw. Interprovincial and foreign immigration will become increasingly important; however, for now, I believe there is still a time before Nova Scotia's rural population 'dries up', in a manner of speaking

According to 2006 numbers from Statistics Canada:

Halifax: Migration of 47,730;

Intraprovincial migrants - 13,330 (27.9%);
Interprovincial migrants - 26,435 (55.4%);
International migrants - 7,965 (16.7%).

I suspect a significant portion of Halifax's interprovincial growth is coming from the other Maritime provinces, which is also concerning since they too are very limited population sources. To compare this city's intraprovincial migrant gain to the next largest municipality in the Maritimes:

Moncton: Migration of 23,105

Intraprovincial migrants - 14,600 (63.2%);
Interprovincial migrants - 7,115 (30.8%);
International migrants - 1,390 (6.0%).

If over 60% of Halifax's migration was intraprovincial, then I would share your concerns more immediately, Drybrain. Our city still has time to grow its appeal internationally.

[someone123]

Those numbers are also migration only. Another source of population growth is natural increase from births within the HRM.

My sense is that a lot of people in regions like CB tend to head straight for Alberta because their skills are a better fit for areas like Fort McMurray. Halifax has a very white collar economy. It will be interesting to see what sort of effect shipbuilding has on this phenomenon.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by someone123

Those numbers are also migration only. Another source of population growth is natural increase from births within the HRM.

My sense is that a lot of people in regions like CB tend to head straight for Alberta because their skills are a better fit for areas like Fort McMurray. Halifax has a very white collar economy. It will be interesting to see what sort of effect shipbuilding has on this phenomenon.

Hopefully it'll be good for blue and white collar work--Alberta's economy is based on roughneck labour, but every sector benefits due to increased demand for health care, teachers, legal services, retail, etc.

[Drybrain]

Oh, and as to above, here's what really worries me.

Overall, the population is growing, but the number of people under the age of 15 shrunk. Due, I guess, to low birthrates and too many young families moving elsewhere. That's the next generation of child-bearing Haligonians, so that's the kind of change that can get exponentially worse every generation, unless the trend is reversed. I think we're the only major CMA that shows a decline in that age bracket.

(Not trying to be gloomy--just trying to assess the demographics.)

[Wishblade]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

You make an exellent point.
Nova Scotia is a limited pool of less than a million people from which Halifax may draw. Interprovincial and foreign immigration will become increasingly important; however, for now, I believe there is still a time before Nova Scotia's rural population 'dries up', in a manner of speaking

According to 2006 numbers from Statistics Canada:

Halifax: Migration of 47,730;

Intraprovincial migrants - 13,330 (27.9%);
Interprovincial migrants - 26,435 (55.4%);
International migrants - 7,965 (16.7%).

I suspect a significant portion of Halifax's interprovincial growth is coming from the other Maritime provinces, which is also concerning since they too are very limited population sources. To compare this city's intraprovincial migrant gain to the next largest municipality in the Maritimes:

Moncton: Migration of 23,105

Intraprovincial migrants - 14,600 (63.2%);
Interprovincial migrants - 7,115 (30.8%);
International migrants - 1,390 (6.0%).

If over 60% of Halifax's migration was intraprovincial, then I would share your concerns more immediately, Drybrain. Our city still has time to grow its appeal internationally.

I saw a statistic somewhere (I'll try to find it and post it) that showed the interprovincial migration numbers from each province to the HRM. The overwhelming majority were from Ontario as I recall.

[halifaxboyns]

These population numbers are exactly what I figured for the growth of HRM. This is going to blow the projections of the Regional Plan (that's been in place maybe 7 years) right out of the water. High growth saw us at 425K in 2027 - hmm, I wonder?

While I don't think the whole regional plan needs to be re-writen (the areas of growth seem sound), I think there certainly needs to be an update to make sure it's okay with the higher growth rates, the population growth focus areas are okay and better yet a more sound transportation model based upon a higher population base (AKA rapid transit).

[halifaxboyns]

I was just going back over the numbers looking at the year to year breakdowns for HRM. What is striking to me is the years where we had an economic downtown - look at the population growth numbers. 4,800, and then 3 years of 5,000 plus...that is impressive in light of the economic situation.

It also raises a red flag to me that if we were seeing a typical 5,000+ population growth in bad economic times; what can we expect when the ship contract/off shore oil really kick in? My guess would be probably just as high, maybe higher (6,000+?). If that's the case we could see roughly 150,000 people added in 10 years, that's staggering.

[Wishblade]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

I was just going back over the numbers looking at the year to year breakdowns for HRM. What is striking to me is the years where we had an economic downtown - look at the population growth numbers. 4,800, and then 3 years of 5,000 plus...that is impressive in light of the economic situation.

It also raises a red flag to me that if we were seeing a typical 5,000+ population growth in bad economic times; what can we expect when the ship contract/off shore oil really kick in? My guess would be probably just as high, maybe higher (6,000+?). If that's the case we could see roughly 150,000 people added in 10 years, that's staggering.

I'd say 150,000 in 10 years is a stretch, but I could see us adding a population equal to the present day Moncton CMA within 15-20 years.

[BravoZulu]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

My guess would be probably just as high, maybe higher (6,000+?). If that's the case we could see roughly 150,000 people added in 10 years, that's staggering.

Not sure I'm tracking the math on this one. Wouldn't 150000 in 10 years require ~15000 per year? Or are we reaching a point where the annual increase will start to accelerate (kind of like compound interest) Thanks BZ

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Wishblade

I'd say 150,000 in 10 years is a stretch, but I could see us adding a population equal to the present day Moncton CMA within 15-20 years.

You expect us all to move down there?

[Wishblade]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You expect us all to move down there?

Haha, I know thats obviously not reasonable to expect, though it would be nice .

I'm just trying to put things in a more visual perspective rather than simply using numbers.

[Nilan8888]

I was just going back over the numbers looking at the year to year breakdowns for HRM. What is striking to me is the years where we had an economic downtown - look at the population growth numbers. 4,800, and then 3 years of 5,000 plus...that is impressive in light of the economic situation.

It also raises a red flag to me that if we were seeing a typical 5,000+ population growth in bad economic times; what can we expect when the ship contract/off shore oil really kick in? My guess would be probably just as high, maybe higher (6,000+?). If that's the case we could see roughly 150,000 people added in 10 years, that's staggering.

Yeah, but remember that the bad economic times were worldwide and not so much reflected locally. Canada itself found itself in a shielded position from all the stuff everyone else was going through (whether you want to say it's because we dealt with the general issue of runaway debt with Chretien in the 90s, or because Martin kept the old banking laws in place when everyone else was changing, Harper's economic acumen, or it just happened out of simple laziness of Canada's banking industry to not compete with one another to get housing loans in the same way other countries were [which turned out to be one of the biggest blessings in disguise in history]), regardless: point is, Canada got itself insulated from a lot of what was going on.

And on top of that, the Maritimes, Halifax primarily, were insulated on top of that yet again. Economic growth in the Maritimes was following its own drummer, and undergoing small but steady growth while everyone else was tanking.

So what you had was people, if anything, MORE likely to move to Halifax because of that climate rather than less.

So, that said, I'd expect growth to stay constant. Maybe even decrease a little bit, but not much. At any rate, I don't think the economic growth in Halifax is going to drive large increases in population. It'll just stay steady.

[someone123]

It's not really true that Canada was sheltered from economic problems. It went into a recession along with the US and is again perilously close. The economy in NS isn't great right now and that is reflected in lower population growth in Halifax compared to earlier years.

I think population growth in Halifax will closely match job creation numbers, so it will probably go up a bit if there are more jobs as a result of shipbuilding or the offshore industry. Increases to the provincial nominee quotas could also make a big difference. 4,000-6,000 growth over the last few years may become, say, 6,000-10,000 growth based on a scenario with lots of job growth and expanded immigration.

halifaxboyns is absolutely right to point out that the regional planning population projections are wrong. Many arguments against expanding transportation infrastructure are based on those numbers. In reality, unless something fairly dramatic happens, the city won't have the capacity needed to support its population. It already has awful transit service and commute times, and they are going to get worse. Council needs to get into a more ambitious mindset.

[Nilan8888]

It's not really true that Canada was sheltered from economic problems. It went into a recession along with the US and is again perilously close. The economy in NS isn't great right now and that is reflected in lower population growth in Halifax compared to earlier years.

Well firstly, that statement is not really all that true. Did Canada enter a recession? Yes. Did it enter recession at the same "time" as the US? Yes.

But the 2008-2010 recession's effects were not only less severe than in the US and elsewhere, they weren't even as severe as the previous recessions in the early 80s and 90s. Considering the US was in the throes of the greatest downturn, as said, since the Great Depression and was on the verge of Depression itself... that's pretty shielded, I'd say. And if the local economy's going south now... I think that's sort of irrelevant to most my statement, except maybe the last bit, which was more centered on not really thinking the population numbers would change. Or at least, not increase by much.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You expect us all to move down there?

I would feel more at home in Halifx if the city had a more prominent francophone population.

If the entire city of Moncton were to move to Halifax -- you guys wouldn't mind bringing that stadium along with you too, eh?



Magic Mountain could be installed somewhere in Bedford, I imagine.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think population growth in Halifax will closely match job creation numbers, so it will probably go up a bit if there are more jobs as a result of shipbuilding or the offshore industry. Increases to the provincial nominee quotas could also make a big difference. 4,000-6,000 growth over the last few years may become, say, 6,000-10,000 growth based on a scenario with lots of job growth and expanded immigration.

I would like to place bets and predict that Halifax's population growth will somewhat outpace the city's production of new jobs. I believe the trend of urbanisation will escalate further; I believe rural Nova Scotians/Maritimers will increasingly flock to Halifax.

Shipbuilding has been very publicised, as has the city's low unemployment rate.

Originally Posted by someone123

halifaxboyns is absolutely right to point out that the regional planning population projections are wrong. Many arguments against expanding transportation infrastructure are based on those numbers. In reality, unless something fairly dramatic happens, the city won't have the capacity needed to support its population. It already has awful transit service and commute times, and they are going to get worse. Council needs to get into a more ambitious mindset.

As do the provincial and federal governments. There needs to be more involvement, oversight, and financial commitments from upper levels of government, especially when municipal governments are lagging in adequate planning to create environments of growth upon which these upper levels of government depend.

It seems as though HRM council is fine with letting our transit problem grow to a Toronto-level disaster.