Halifax Population & Growth

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

I thought Lacey said out-migration was well over 4000 people?

That's total out-migration. Balance that with in-migration of Canadians from other provinces, and the net number is a loss of 333. That's not that bad, really. Saskatchewan, the worst province in Q1, had out-migration of more than 5,000, and net loss of about 1,400.

The numbers vary hugely too. Nova Scotia's outmigration was only 2,400 in Q4 of 2015, and nearly double the next quarter. Ontario lost only 10,000 people in Q4 of 2015 (pretty small, for their population) but lost 26,000 in Q2 of the same year. It's all over the place, so it's hard to extract any meaning from one quarter.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

There are reliable retention stats up to 2006, which shows that by then, five-year retention (not of refugees specifically but of all immigrants) was at 73%. Not amazing, but vastly better than the 40-some percent of 15 years prior.

I don't think any solid post-2006 data exists, maybe due to the 2011 census problems. But I knows it's generally accepted by ISANS and others that retention has continued to slowly improve.

More recent data would be nice.

ISANS has names of people they have helped from the day a family/couple/individual arrived in Nova Scotia. They know who left after day 1 or day 3 or day 10 or day 30. It was quite common for ISANS clients to arrive one day and leave for points west within 7 days, whole families. My guess was that they had agreed to come to Nova Scotia as a way of getting to Canada sooner than if they had said Toronto, Montreal or Calgary. I don't understand why ISANS, or MISA as it once was, is so reluctant to talk about the issue. We can't force people to stay here but it would help if we knew why so many departed almost immediately upon arrival.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Colin May

ISANS has names of people they have helped from the day a family/couple/individual arrived in Nova Scotia. They know who left after day 1 or day 3 or day 10 or day 30. It was quite common for ISANS clients to arrive one day and leave for points west within 7 days, whole families. My guess was that they had agreed to come to Nova Scotia as a way of getting to Canada sooner than if they had said Toronto, Montreal or Calgary. I don't understand why ISANS, or MISA as it once was, is so reluctant to talk about the issue. We can't force people to stay here but it would help if we knew why so many departed almost immediately upon arrival.

I'm not sure why you're suggesting some conspiracy on ISANS' part, but here you go: the longitudinal immigration database, based on tax-filing data. Retention at 72% between 2006 and 2011. Far higher than the 40-some percent between 2001 and 2006.

Given the increasing rates of immigration, the strong population increases in Halifax, and the very significant uptick in demographic diversity (non-official languages, visible minorities) between 2006 and 2011, there is no basis to assume this has worsened; if anything it's probably improved.

No one would claim to want to come to Nova Scotia just to get here sooner; immigrants are not dispersed across the country on some kind of regional proportional system. Most of Nova Scotia's immigrants are economic immigrants who don't use ISANS services anyway, so anecdotes from their frontlines are useless in determing trends.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I'm not sure why you're suggesting some conspiracy on ISANS' part, but here you go: the longitudinal immigration database, based on tax-filing data. Retention at 72% between 2006 and 2011. Far higher than the 40-some percent between 2001 and 2006.

Given the increasing rates of immigration, the strong population increases in Halifax, and the very significant uptick in demographic diversity (non-official languages, visible minorities) between 2006 and 2011, there is no basis to assume this has worsened; if anything it's probably improved.

No one would claim to want to come to Nova Scotia just to get here sooner; immigrants are not dispersed across the country on some kind of regional proportional system. Most of Nova Scotia's immigrants are economic immigrants who don't use ISANS services anyway, so anecdotes from their frontlines are useless in determing trends.

No suggestion of conspiracy, more an expression of the need for greater transparency if we are to attain greater retention of people moving to Nova Scotia from outside Canada. Landed immigrants provide a destination when they enter the country, in my case it was Saint John where I had an employment agreement.
I was referring primarily to refugees and my comment is hardly 'anecdotal' as my experience with MISA arrivals lasted for a decade.
I and others can vouch for many examples of individuals and families who arrived in Halifax and immediately called friends or relatives elsewhere in Canada and departed Halifax within a few days. Datasets such as income tax filings don't capture such actions for obvious reasons, but the Immigration Department has the information.
Any improvement may well coincide with the federal threat several years ago to cease funding MISA because of poor retention rates.
If you want to discuss it over beer you'll need to bring a case because your experience is confined to datasets and mine comes from the frontline.

[portapetey]

I'm flagging this a few days early, but the new 2016 Census population and dwelling counts will be released next week on Feb. 8

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...fusion-eng.cfm

I'm assuming this will get down the municipal level.

I'm looking forward to seeing if Halifax has outpaced growth predictions - it certainly feels like it's growing fast. Also interested to see the relative populations of the urban population centre versus the municipality / metro / CSA. I wonder if the relative size of the urban area has increased much?

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by portapetey

I'm looking forward to seeing if Halifax has outpaced growth predictions - it certainly feels like it's growing fast. Also interested to see the relative populations of the urban population centre versus the municipality / metro / CSA. I wonder if the relative size of the urban area has increased much?

It's been growing faster than usual the past tweo years, but three years ago there was a near-stagnant year, which was a sort of odd statistical outlier. I wonder if that will offset the more robust ywears that followed.,

In any case, curious to see. Also curious to see what the changes are vis-a-vis religious/linguistic/national-origin background. I feel as if the the 2011-2016 period diversified the city more than the 2006-2011 period did.

[portapetey]

The new population data will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70201b-eng.htm


The most recent population estimate was 417,847 for July 1 2015.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...tbl1.1-eng.htm


A simple linear trend-line from the historical estimates here would suggest about 421,000 in July 2016 and 425,000 in July 2017:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm


Let's see how the 2016 count compares.

(but recognize the count generally missed about 2.2% of the population on average across Canada - it was actually only 1.26% for Halifax in 2011 http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...l1.2.2-eng.cfm), which is part of what the post census estimates are made to compensate for...)

[IanWatson]

Some highlights:

NS only grew 0.2% from 2011 to 2016, compared to 0.9% in the previous five years. New Brunswick actually shrank 0.5%.

Halifax CMA grew 3.3% over this census period, down from a 4.7% growth rate the previous five years. The 2016 census population for Halifax CMA was 403,390.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by IanWatson

Some highlights:

NS only grew 0.2% from 2011 to 2016, compared to 0.9% in the previous five years. New Brunswick actually shrank 0.5%.

Halifax CMA grew 3.3% over this census period, down from a 4.7% growth rate the previous five years. The 2016 census population for Halifax CMA was 403,390.

Except the population was estimated at 417,000 two years ago, by Statscan. Lots of other cities are way low as well. What's up with that?

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Except the population was estimated at 417,000 two years ago, by Statscan. Lots of other cities are way low as well. What's up with that?

The actual census count is always lower than post-census estimates. Generally, roughly 2% of the population gets missed in the count. The estimates are done, in part, to adjust for that.

Until StatsCan does it officially, we can very roughly guesstimate that the 2016 population was 403,390 x 1.02 = 411,458. (And, undercounts tend to be smaller in CMAs - it was only 1.26% for Halifax in 2011, so this is likely still too high a guesstimate. Based on the 2011 rate, it might be more like 409K.)

That's certainly less than the estimates previously put out there based on the 2011 census. It appears that actual growth was probably lower than projections.

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by IanWatson

Some highlights:

NS only grew 0.2% from 2011 to 2016, compared to 0.9% in the previous five years. New Brunswick actually shrank 0.5%.

Halifax CMA grew 3.3% over this census period, down from a 4.7% growth rate the previous five years. The 2016 census population for Halifax CMA was 403,390.

The census count for the urban population centre was up to 316,701 2016 from 304,979 in 2011, a growth rate of 3.8%

So, only a slightly greater proportion of people live in the "city part" - Halifax-Dartmouth-Bedford-Sackville - versus the rural parts compared to 2011.

[fenwick16]

Th truth is that we will never know the real population. The census is under-counted because of people not filling in census forms and newcomers not getting a census form. And the estimate is just that, an estimate; unfortunately Statistics Canada has various estimates such as the one they use for the labour statistics, which indicates a 1.5% growth rate.

From what I remember, 4 years ago, Statistics Canada gave a low estimate (not the census) for Halifax and then changed it later (is this just a foggy memory on my part, or does anyone else remember that?)

As Mark Twain among others said: There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by portapetey

The actual census count is always lower than post-census estimates. Generally, roughly 2% of the population gets missed in the count. The estimates are done, in part, to adjust for that.

Until StatsCan does it officially, we can very roughly guesstimate that the 2016 population was 403,390 x 1.02 = 411,458. (And, undercounts tend to be smaller in CMAs - it was only 1.26% for Halifax in 2011, so this is likely still too high a guesstimate.)

That's certainly less than the estimates previously put out there based on the 2011 census. It appears that actual growth was probably lower than projections.

Was it only 1.2% in 2011? The official number was 390,000, whereas the postcensal estimate later released was 402,000. more than 3 percent difference.

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Was it only 1.2% in 2011? The official number was 390,000, whereas the postcensal estimate later released was 402,000. more than 3 percent difference.

Interesting. According to this table the net undercoverage was 1.26% in 2011.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...l1.2.2-eng.cfm

But you're right, that does't seem to line up with the actual count versus the estimate.

The only immediate thing is this note at the bottom of the table you linked:

Postcensal estimates are based on the latest census counts adjusted for census net under-coverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves) and for the estimated population growth that occurred since that census. Intercensal estimates are based on postcensal estimates and census counts adjusted of the censuses preceding and following the considered year.

An estimate doesn't just include the compensation for under-coverage, but for estimated growth between the time of the census and the date for the estimate. The problem here is that the estimate is for the same year as the census, so growth shouldn't be a factor.

I'm sure there's an explanation - I don't have time to look for it right now but I will! Something for me to geek out on and try to solve tonight...

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

Th truth is that we will never know the real population. The census is under-counted because of people not filling in census forms and newcomers not getting a census form. And the estimate is just that, an estimate; unfortunately Statistics Canada has various estimates such as the one they use for the labour statistics, which indicates a 1.5% growth rate.

From what I remember, 4 years ago, Statistics Canada gave a low estimate (not the census) for Halifax and then changed it later (is this just a foggy memory on my part, or does anyone else remember that?)

As Mark Twain among others said: There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

That's true. Of course, the problem is the same for Halifax as for anywhere else.

The big message is that growth was slower in 2011-2016 than in 2006-2011. Halifax's CMA is still in the 410K ish range, and is still the 13th largest in Canada.

The CMA's population isn't increasing as much as one might guess based on the apparent building boom we've been experiencing the last few years. There is a slightly larger proportion of the population living in the urban population centre as compared to the "fringe" and the rural areas, but perhaps not as much as one might have guessed.

I confess I'm a little surprised there wasn't more growth.

[Colin May]

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/ca...etting-smaller

The paywall at National Post was abolished at the start of the year.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by portapetey

The CMA's population isn't increasing as much as one might guess based on the apparent building boom we've been experiencing the last few years. There is a slightly larger proportion of the population living in the urban population centre as compared to the "fringe" and the rural areas, but perhaps not as much as one might have guessed.

I confess I'm a little surprised there wasn't more growth.

One surprising thing is that some cities are well below the estimate, while others are well above, and the discrepancies aren't all between large and small cities or faster and slower growth cities. Cities like St. Catharine's and Victoria were estimated to have grown more slowly, while Halifax and Moncton census counts were much smaller (I am comparing to http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm).

As has already been mentioned, these are pre-correction numbers. I have seen Statistics Canada descriptions that recommend using the population estimates rather than the uncorrected census counts for determining the total population of a city. The census data is more valuable in terms of the detailed data it provides, but isn't more accurate as a total count. Once they correct the total census count and adjust the estimates they will be closer.

[portapetey]

Originally Posted by someone123

One surprising thing is that some cities are well below the estimate, while others are well above, and the discrepancies aren't all between large and small cities or faster and slower growth cities. Cities like St. Catharine's and Victoria were estimated to have grown more slowly, while Halifax and Moncton census counts were much smaller (I am comparing to http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm).

As has already been mentioned, these are pre-correction numbers. I have seen Statistics Canada descriptions that recommend using the population estimates rather than the uncorrected census counts for determining the total population of a city. The census data is more valuable in terms of the detailed data it provides, but isn't more accurate as a total count. Once they correct the total census count and adjust the estimates they will be closer.

True. But this does give us a good idea of growth. Indications are that the 5 year growth was in the range of 13,000 people, perhaps a few more, whatever the final estimate of the 2016 population ends up being - unless the undercount for 2016 was drastically different from 2011.

[someone123]

Sort of. Halifax probably didn't shrink and probably didn't grow by 10%. But the correction might be as large as the currently-reported growth rate. We won't really know until the corrected census counts are released and the estimates are updated.

[Dmajackson]

Some fun Halifax numbers:

Fastest growing Census Tract - Bedford West / Kingswood at +46.4% (7'185 in 2016)
Slowest growing Census Tract - Downtown Dartmouth North at -6.5% (1'481 in 2016)
Fastest Growing Urban Census Tract - South Dartmouth / Woodside at +23.9% (3'855 in 2016) or Downtown Halifax North at +18.8% (2'357 in 2016)
Downtown Halifax: +4.82% (+701 / 15'231 in 2016)
North End Halifax: -1.39% (-229 / 16'213 in 2016)
South End Halifax: -0.79% (-63 / 7'892 in 2016)
West End Halifax: -0.41% (-99 / 23'874 in 2016)