General Phoenix Metro Discussion Thread

[xymox]

Originally Posted by PHX31

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how this will affect the North Phoenix area. There has already been major growth in my vicinity in the past 25 years (I grew up in far north phoenix, moved away for college/young adulthood, and I'm now back). I think the long-term plans of the City of Peoria (connections to and growth along the 303) may actually come to fruition which I thought was impossible. Then the area from Norterra north to Carefree Hwy is going to explode. It already kind of is, but it's going to be unrecognizable in 10 years.

I'm partially looking forward to it. But also, kind of not. The pluses and minuses are what I'm not fully grasping yet.

It's gonna be nuts for 'far north' Peoria. If you look at the general plan, they have a high density mixed used site at AZ-74/Lake Pleasant Pkwy. So I'd imagine eventually that could include high rises of some sort. I'm so glad that the cargo airport never came to fruition in that area - TSMC is the perfect thing for that region and its future.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by xymox

It's gonna be nuts for 'far north' Peoria. If you look at the general plan, they have a high density mixed used site at AZ-74/Lake Pleasant Pkwy. So I'd imagine eventually that could include high rises of some sort. I'm so glad that the cargo airport never came to fruition in that area - TSMC is the perfect thing for that region and its future.

Honestly the size of this fab and its associated companies is so huge it will have impacts across the metro in tons of industries. It will also be interesting seeing that we have various fabs in Texas, Ohio, New York, Here and how those various companies and suppliers might interact with each other. I mean Micron is dumping 100 billion into Syracuse, think of how insane that will be for a 1 million person metro!

And how crazy to think that future I-phone chips and Nvidia Graphics cards will be built right here in town. Nor more of this designed in California, Built in China. Designed AND BUILT in America. As it should be.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by xymox

its a little more than that - its iCloud HQ. And they also build out every system they put in any datacenter at that site and ship it out from there.

I was expecting Tim Cook to announce and AZ based assembly site today...

It's a little early for that assembly is still a low-cost thing, I could even see them shift Assembly to Northern Mexico for the cost savings in labor unless they take automated manufacturing to an extreme level.

But even if they do make a full assembly plant in the USA the chips, they need for future iPhones won't start being built for another 3 years

[PHX31]

Originally Posted by xymox

It's gonna be nuts for 'far north' Peoria. If you look at the general plan, they have a high density mixed used site at AZ-74/Lake Pleasant Pkwy. So I'd imagine eventually that could include high rises of some sort. I'm so glad that the cargo airport never came to fruition in that area - TSMC is the perfect thing for that region and its future.

High rises out there would be crazy.

Higher density is also planned in the area south of Carefree Hwy on the east side of I-17.

So far the majority of growth in the general northern metro periphery area has been tons of SF houses, general retail and junk, and more recently multifamily (apartments, for-rent townhouses, etc.). TSMC could add some nitro to the growth and make the area unrecognizable with higher density and other non-typical uses.

[locolife]

I was able to snag a decent shot of downtown w/ my iPhone flying out earlier this week.

[Obadno]

Nice! So many former empty lots are developed! Downtown has been getting thicker and thicker but I feels like we have reached a turning point in the last 12 months we’re things have really hit mass. Now with all the new apartment towers opening local population will fuel demand for general retail and services which will lead to more well rounded neighborhood and hopefully during the next boom cycle large scale offices attracted to the neighborhood and willing to pay for the space in a popular area

[Sunsfan87]

Interesting article on office to housing conversions, it says Phoenix has eight office conversions: three currently underway and 5 proposed if I’m not mistaken. Is there a list or have these been discussed which projects these are?

https://www.businessinsider.com/remo...alypse-2022-12

[combusean]

https://www.cbre.com/insights/viewpo...utilized-space

Hover over the map towards the top, which expands to include filters. Select Phoenix from market and zoom in.

The data is highly suspect, 15849 N 71st St for example wasn't converted, it was demolished.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Sunsfan87

Interesting article on office to housing conversions, it says Phoenix has eight office conversions: three currently underway and 5 proposed if I’m not mistaken. Is there a list or have these been discussed which projects these are?

https://www.businessinsider.com/remo...alypse-2022-12

I’m not a fan of buisness insider their journalism is suspect and melodramatic and this article is for sure in that camp. It’s a bit over the top and reminds me of the proclamations that restaurants and concerts were forever doomed by Covid 19.

What’s going on in offices: white collar jobs that really only require internet access for emails and phone calls are much more likely to be done remotely. Most of them are now hybrid where the worker will come in some days but not every day. This transition likely would have occurred and could have occurred a decade ago but culture and tradition can take a while to overcome. This will not make offices obsolete but it very much changes how much space companies need to be leasing and that’s what we are seeing in these high vacancy numbers.

These towers will fill up again but with many more tenants. Much fewer huge leases across multiple floors and a lot more “executive” offices or specialty offices.

That being said I am still a firm believer that people do like
Interacting and while work from home is nice I think you’ll see over a few years that a lot of people will be going into the office more and more as things settle back to the norm.

What is nice is this newer idea of flexibility with where and when people working isn’t going anywhere as it just makes too much sense. And this will actually have very long term consequences where people can now work remote in small cities and towns and have much lower costs of living. Or even just in further afield suburbs. A long commute isn’t so daunting if it’s only a couple times a week or month. Birth rates went up for the first time in 2021 in 7 years. I would bet that had a lot to do with people being home more or leaving urban areas for Singtel family homes and smaller communities etc.

[combusean]

Agreed with the above. The company I work for has switched to 3 days a week and I understand *all* the software engineers will have to return to 5 days a week in Q1.

The other fact of the matter is that downtown office is obsolete. Tenants prefer buildings with huge floorplates and high ceilings for their open offices which are rarely found downtown. Flight to quality always happens in a downward shift in market conditions.

[xymox]

So - for fun I was playing with ChatGPT today. I asked it 'What is Arizona's tallest building?' and its response was (paraphrased): "Arizona's tallest building is One Arizona Center. It has 50 floors and is 722ft. It rises distinctly above the Phoenix skyline. It was built in 1990."

When I asked where it was, it was at 400 EVB.

Clearly this building is not 722ft and not 50 floors - so was wondering - was that the original plan for that building? I can't imagine WHERE the chatbot sourced this (mis)information - but it insisted it was correct based on the data it was trained on. Maybe ChatGPT is really from an alternative universe?

[combusean]

Nothing in Arizona Center was ever proposed that high, I have no idea where that's coming from.

[combusean]

Thought this was cool: POV cab ride of a westbound LRT from Main/Gilbert to 19th/Dunlap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbkxuCd3Id4

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by combusean

Thought this was cool: POV cab ride of a westbound LRT from Main/Gilbert to 19th/Dunlap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbkxuCd3Id4

The run time of 1 hours and 37 minutes shows just how far Valley Metro has pushed beyond the typcial length of light rail with a 28-mile line. It's shame the person who shot this didn't do some sort of time lapse. The best YouTube can do is 2X normal speed for playback.

[Obadno]

I will never understand why the traffic lights are not synced with light rail to make transit times faster.

I dont use light rail despite being in an area I can because it is twice as fast and barely more expansive to just take a lyft or uber.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I will never understand why the traffic lights are not synced with light rail to make transit times faster.

I dont use light rail despite being in an area I can because it is twice as fast and barely more expansive to just take a lyft or uber.

This has been my number one gripe about LRT since I've lived here. LRT needs to have better traffic light priority. When I used to ride to midtown for work daily, I spent many days calculating the time spent hitting stop lights. For a 7 mile trip, it averaged out to be an about an additional 7 minutes. That's a lot of time added time for just 7 miles.

Just by averaging out my 7 minutes of traffic lights for 7 miles, the end-to-end travel time of 1 hour 37 minutes from end to end could potentially be decreased by 28 minutes (give or take) if you remove the stop lights of of the equation. I'm sure there are many other factors to consider, but it's a good chunk of reduced time no matter how you look at it.

[PHX31]

Are you SURE the trains don't have any priority? I would venture to guess that they 100% are given some sort of priority, even if it's not exactly what you think it is.

For example: do you think the train should get green immediately as it approaches the intersection, regardless of anything else? If so, I think that's just a fantasy on how the signal timing and priority works.

What likely happens is as soon as the approaching train "calls" to the traffic signal controller, the current conflicting phases of the side streets begin to time out (vehicular and pedestrians), which is basically giving the train priority. However, those side streets will have a minimum green time ... they can't just "immediately" turn red so the train gets a green.

My best guess is that the side streets have associated vehicular and pedestrian phase minimum timings (which I would also guess would take ultimate priority over even a train). Pedestrians are given a very specific amount of time to cross and clear a street. Let's say that is 15 seconds of a green "walk/man" and 25 seconds of a flashing "stop/hand". That whole 40 seconds has to be given and has to cycle through. So if a train approaches an intersection 5 seconds into the pedestrian phase, it'll have to wait a very minimum of 35 seconds. It can't just turn those pedestrians to red immediately and leave someone hanging in the middle of the road.

[Obadno]

I am absolutely certain that trains don't have any priority, A very basic traffic control program could eliminate almost all stops not related to stations or emergencies

A train having to wait for a light cycle should be very rare.

[PHX31]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I am absolutely certain that trains don't have any priority, A very basic traffic control program could eliminate almost all stops not related to stations or emergencies

A train having to wait for a light cycle should be very rare.

I would bet anything they do have priority of some sort. Is it the best it could be? Probably not. Regardless, it's not that basic, there are tons of variables.

[CrestedSaguaro]

The time a train takes approaching a station and then the time spent at the station boarding passengers should be enough time to complete the traffic light cycles. Yet a lot of trips I have been on, the LTR stops immediately upon leaving a station. This happens quite frequently and should be more than avoidable. We're talking a good full minute for the lights to complete cycling.