2019 election poll by poll results

[Docere]

Poll by poll results mapped for 2019 election:

http://election-atlas.ca/fed/

[Acajack]

Thanks for this. It's super interesting.

My riding (Gatineau, mostly made up of the pre-merger city) went Bloc for the first time in 2004. And re-elected a Bloc MP in 2006.

I suspected that he rode to victory on the large blue collar francophone parts of the riding, but the Bloc also took my upper middle class white collar neighbourhood, and even took my street from what I gather.

The next riding over, Hull-Aylmer, went Liberal as it almost always does, but surprisingly enough the Bloc appears to have taken most of the polls by a narrow margin in Hull, whereas the Liberals took almost all of the polls in Aylmer. Though in many Aylmer polls (close to half just by a quick estimation) the Bloc candidate was right on the heels of the Liberals and came close to taking them.

[someone123]

I didn't really notice this before but the way the electoral map is drawn up in NS, 4 ridings are urban Halifax and 3 ridings are partly in the metro area. Only 4 of the 11 ridings are not significantly influenced by the city.

The semi-urban and urban ridings all went strongly Liberal (40%+) in 2019, while all of the other ridings were either weak Liberal and one was (barely) Conservative. Kings-Hants is an example of a riding that looks rural on paper but is really a quasi-urban/exurban riding, and it's been a safe Liberal riding since 2000. About half of the people living in West Hants are urban commuters.

The electoral map in NS could easily be drawn up differently to get a different result, although in 2019 it wouldn't have mattered much since the Liberals did so well in NS.

[ssiguy]

This map really does exemplify the problems that the Tories have in urban Canada.

Outside Cal/Edm, the Tories go absolutely roasted in our cities both large and mid-size. This is especially true in our 2 biggest cities and nearly all of politically powerful Ontario & Quebec. This is primarily due to 2 reasons...…….their social conservatism and their supreme indifference to our environment and climate change.

The Tories MUST pick a leader who is sensitive and proactive on both those issues or they haven't a hope in the next election.

[SignalHillHiker]

It doesn't show my poll for some reason. It has others near my poll but they're not the correct one.

[canucklehead2]

Very cool site indeed and a poly-sci nerd's fantasy come true... In my riding the Conservatives tend to win because the progressive vote which is just as large is split between the dominant NDP and the fringe of Liberals that play spoiler time and time again. PR would fix this but you know...

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

It doesn't show my poll for some reason. It has others near my poll but they're not the correct one.

I'm not sure exactly how these polling boundaries work. Where I live and where I voted are in different polling number boundaries. Does my vote show up in my neighbourhood or does it show up in the neighbourhood where I voted? A lot easier to figure this stuff out in small towns with only one polling station.

But as well this data, as of right now, is both unofficial (the final elections canada report isn't out until March) and the author has admitted there are both some errors and incomplete data in his map which will be updated when official numbers are released.

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I've been deep diving into the Newfoundland numbers since yesterday. When I get a good sense of things I'll post my thoughts. It'd be a lot easier to do with the official elections canada excel spreadsheet, but this map will do fine for now.

[SignalHillHiker]

I, personally, want to know how close the Conservative vote creeped to me. If in your studies you could make note of the nearest single poll the Cons won to my house.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I, personally, want to know how close the Conservative vote creeped to me. If in your studies you could make note of the nearest single poll the Cons won to my house.

That's very easy to figure out; the color of the dot represents the winner of the poll. For you (and myself) the closest St. John's CMA CPC winning poll is whichever is closer between Avalon Poll 34 (in Paradise...supposedly in St. Anne's Industrial Park but I'm guessing there's some residential in the area) and St. John's East poll 17 (Northern part of Torbay). In St. John's East, NDP won pretty much every urban poll, Liberals won a few polls in more affluent neighbourhoods of the east end, and Conservatives won every poll north of Torbay. St. John's South was mostly Liberal wins, but the downtown parts of SJS were won by the NDP. Conservatives only won 2 polls, both down near Bay Bulls/Witless Bay.

The thing that's most eye opening is the strength of Conservative victory is what used to be the NL Liberal heartland. I'm looking at parts of the Burin Peninsula where I grew up that the Conservatives won with over 60% of the vote. Liberal vote share is hovering around 25% Considering in 2015 the Liberals cleaned up here, a -55% drop in their vote share is nothing short of jaw dropping.

[SignalHillHiker]

I'm not surprised. Liberal here was like NDP on the prairies - union-based, rural, etc. The fishery as socialist enterprise is dead, if it ever existed. Now it is very openly a handful of very wealthy people, building their McMansions in the middle of nowhere, with licenses for crab and everything else, smothering any competition. So the collective good pressure to vote Liberal is gone. The older people still never would vote Conservative, because for them that still means Nationalist while Liberal is Confederate. But younger (say 60 years old and below) in rural areas will start to realize they're naturally in favour of entertainment "news" and voting against their own self interest.

I mean, the most viciously anti-immigration towns in Newfoundland are the ones with a few thousand people and not a single visible minority person. We're overdue for those people not getting away with pretending they're actual liberals. I mean, I meet gay guys from Pentecostal parts of Central NL who are probably less comfortable in their own skin than gay refugees from the Middle East. It's INSANE to me how old they are and still closeted, how terrified they are of anyone knowing anything. Meanwhile, I didn't even come out - my parents just told me they knew.

*****

Anyhow, sounds like I'm reading this wrong? I was literally looking for a dot on the building where I voted. That's not the way? How the hell do I figure out which poll I was in? lol

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Anyhow, sounds like I'm reading this wrong? I was literally looking for a dot on the building where I voted. That's not the way? How the hell do I figure out which poll I was in? lol

You look for where you live, not for your polling station (where voters from several polls would have gone to vote).

[SignalHillHiker]

I found where I live but there's four dots around my house, none of which I voted at, and none of them have any sort of geographic border associated with them?

My street is in this. None of these dots are where I voted. What am I supposed to do? lol

[Marty_Mcfly]

^on the far right side of the map near where it gives the results, make sure you select "poll by poll" on the view, not ridings (which is default)

[SignalHillHiker]

I've tried. But the dots just stay the same.

EDIT: Marty decided to DM me and put me out of my misery and just tell me which fucking poll I was.

It was...

66% NDP
25% LIB
5% CON
4% GRN

[Marty_Mcfly]

Where I live:

46% NDP
42% LIB
10% CON
2% GRN


and where I grew up:

62% CON
28% LIB
6% NDP
3% GRN

Something I'm also quite surprised about is how the rural Green party candidates essentially outperformed the urban ones.

[whatnext]

Interesting to see the changes in my riding (Vancouver-Granville) between 2015 and 2019. A lot of the polls topped by the NDP in 2015 went to Jody Wilson-Raybould (Ind) in 2019, along with the Liberal ones. The Conservatives actually topped more polls in 2019 than the Libs!

[MonctonRad]

I checked out the neighbouring riding of Beausejour, and the poll by poll results confirmed a suspicion for me.

Dominic LeBlanc is the anointed King of Beausejour, and they could run his dog as a candidate in the riding in perpetuity and the dog would be continually elected.........

But, the GRN candidate placed second in the riding with 27% of the vote. All of the polling stations that voted for the GRN candidate lay in the eastern part of the riding, centred around Sackville and extending up to Port Elgin and Cape Tormentine. There is a sharp dividing line between the Acadian part of the riding and the anglophone part of the riding.

Sackville is a university town (Mount Allison), and certainly some of the GRN supporters likely were environmentalists, but it should be noted that the LIB, CON & NDP all had francophone candidates, pandering to the Acadian majority. The GRN candidate on the other hand was anglophone (and unilingual I believe), so I have a strong suspicion that a good chunk of her support was as a result of a protest vote in favour of anglophone rights.......

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I found where I live but there's four dots around my house, none of which I voted at, and none of them have any sort of geographic border associated with them?

My street is in this. None of these dots are where I voted. What am I supposed to do? lol

It has nothing to do with the building you were physically standing in when you marked your ballot. If you look, you should see a white (I think it is) border around the part of your city that constitutes your poll. You might have to zoom in a bit for that border to appear. The dot is just randomly placed within your polling area. Your actual polling station was not necessarily located within your polling area, since there are usually several polls in each polling station.

In your map, you can see the little line running down the middle of part of "Merrymeeting Rd" and most of "Mayor Ave". That's one of the boundaries between polling areas.

[vid]

The results in Northern Ontario's First Nations are pretty crazy, in a couple of them, the NDP got over 95% of the vote. I checked the 2018 provincial one for Kiiwetinong riding an in one of them, the NDP got all but one vote.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The thing that's most eye opening is the strength of Conservative victory is what used to be the NL Liberal heartland. I'm looking at parts of the Burin Peninsula where I grew up that the Conservatives won with over 60% of the vote. Liberal vote share is hovering around 25% Considering in 2015 the Liberals cleaned up here, a -55% drop in their vote share is nothing short of jaw dropping.

That is jaw dropping, it looks like percentage gain for the Conservatives in last Falls Federal Election in Newfoundland ridings was a lot more than the Conservative gains in Saskatchewan and probably even Alberta since the 2015 Election... I had no idea Andrew Scheer was so popular there.

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker
I'm not surprised. Liberal here was like NDP on the prairies - union-based, rural, etc...

The Liberals still lost a much higher percentage of votes than the NDP did in The Prairies this last election, but normally though the NDP win most of their ridings on The Prairies in urban areas, not rural.