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Originally Posted by Jdawgboy
The cold event of 2011 did contribute to the fires yes it most certainly did sir... Yes the drought caused by a La Niña also helped in setting up the fire, but you can not take out the addition of that winter cold snap in contribution to what happened later that year. Its called cause and effect and you can have multiple causes in what effect occurs. In 2015 we again saw wildfires in what was an extremely wet year, however wet it was during the first quarter, we then had 3 months of bone dry weather drying out a ton of plant growth which had occurred prior to the flash drought. So again different factors but can still lead to the same effect.
Now here we are, Another La Niña, this one could be multi year, hopefully not, but at this time that's what it looks like. You have a winter storm event which has killed off a massive amount of flora, so the ingredients are set for what could be a really bad wildfire year... Again I've been studying this for 20 years, I know what the hell I'm talking about thank you very much..
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The damage began during the summer of 2010 when Texas received a ton of rain. That, in turn, fed fauna (namely grasses). Those grasses became kindle at the first frost of that winter (which occurred in 3Q2010). But it was the unprecedented drought, not the minuscule, two-day cold snap of February 2011, which was the primary/main cause of the wildfire outbreak of 2011. The drought didn’t simply “help” – as you put it.
Texas State Climatologist, John Nielsen-Gammon, stated that the 12-month period from October 2010 through September 2011 was the driest 12-month period in Texas history - and this only "helped"? Again, it was the catalyst. And, add in winds, low humidity, plus human stupidity (in most wildfire cases) you get disaster.
According to Scott Fisher, Meterorologist with Fox 7 News-Austin, the following was reported with regard to this major blast of cold air...
"February 2 - 4, 2011: A powerful arctic outbreak brought intense cold to the region with high temperatures dropping nearly 40° from Feb.1 to Feb. 2. Coldest temp observed: 17° on Feb. 2. This cold snap, though very intense, wasn’t particularly long with only 2 days below freezing. Daily highs for the outbreak: 2/2: 26°; 2/3: 28°; 2/4: 41°"
I believe Scott would agree to alter some of his word after this past week. So, two days of temps below freezing (and lowest temp being 17°) caused the worst wildfire season in Texas recorded history? That is not near long enough to kill-off the amount of fauna you assumed. And, those types of cold snaps happen quite frequently. Having said that, why was there not a historic wildfire outbreak in 1983 - when Austin recorded 140 consecutive hours of below freezing temps (the previous record of consecutive hours at or below 32°)?
Additionally, the following report, produced by the Texas A&M Forest Service, seems to neither specifically identify said "cold snap" nor label it as one of the causes of the myriad of fires throughout the state.
https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/uploadedFile...0Wildfires.pdf
The 2011 Texas Wildfire Outbreak began prior to the subject cold snap. In fact, in February - there where almost 3,000 fires which burned almost 500,000 acres. Texas A&M Forest Service was already mobilizing for a significant fire season in mid-February.
As a victim of one of these fires, I take this subject to heart! I really don't give a flip if you have been
"studying this for 20 years." I'm fairly confident that you have neither a masters nor undergraduate degree in meteorology or climatology. The cold snap of February 2-4, 2011 was not a cause of any wildfire in 2011.
**Hey, wanna get back to talking about "Project Updates"? I do. 2011 is one of those years I'd like to forget.