Predictions for Stage 2 schedule

[Kitchissippi]

Just for fun, a poll on how people think the schedule will turn out.

As planned:
Trillium Line (TL) 2022
Confederation Line East (CLE) 2024
Confederation Line West (CLW) 2025

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Just for fun, a poll on how people think the schedule will turn out.

As planned:
Trillium Line (TL) 2022
Confederation Line East (CLE) 2024
Confederation Line West (CLW) 2025

The City has been very unclear regarding what those vague dates are. Substantial completion? Final completion? Opening?

According to Tim Tierney's video on Montreal Station (1:32), substantial completion for the east end will be Q4 2024 and final completion will be Q3 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1SCiFxpaSc

So far, things seem to have been moving well, even with Covid. My predictions for opening:

Trillium - November 2022. It's a simple diesel train running on a pretty standard railway. The trains are manufactured in Europe, so I expect them to be completed on time, if possibly a little delayed due to Covid.

Confederation East - September 2024. This one might come in a little early. The biggest works are Montreal Road and the flyover past Blair, which should be mostly completed within about a year. The rest is fairly straight forward. In addition, we don't need the full Stage 2 fleet of Spirits to run it.

Confederation West - July 2026. I expect this one to come in late. Lots of tunneling involved and a full fleet of Spirits is required. That said, considering it took 7 years to complete Stage 1, I don't expect it to take quite as long.

[Kitchissippi]

I have a similar guess (or wish?). I doubt the East will open early, they do have to move the highway lanes.

[stolenottawa]

Kiewit is incredibly disorganised...so guessing they'll be late...

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by stolenottawa

Kiewit is incredibly disorganised...so guessing they'll be late...

Do they have a bad track record? Which company isn't disorganized.

Stage 1, we picked the consortium with the best overall score (that happened to be the cheapest, of course), which included SNC that had a good track record (at least with the Canada Line). The problem was that they hired unqualified people to oversee the job, which resulted in a sub-par system.

[stolenottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Do they have a bad track record? Which company isn't disorganized.

Stage 1, we picked the consortium with the best overall score (that happened to be the cheapest, of course), which included SNC that had a good track record (at least with the Canada Line). The problem was that they hired unqualified people to oversee the job, which resulted in a sub-par system.

No clue about track record. I'm just talking about reality right now in Ottawa.

Last thing I was told is that they're already 9 months behind schedule.

Some of their other ways of working seem inefficient to say the least. I'd share details, but they would probably be a bit too revealing and I don't want to get anyone in hot water.

[J.OT13]

Can't help but wonder if it would have been better to separate Stage 2 Confederation into two contracts instead of one. It's a very large and complex project. East and West require very different methods of construction.

[TheMatth69]

Let's not forget that Kiewit is in consortium with Vinci. In France Vinci is in charge of a lot of huge projects same goes around Europe, they're a pretty strong company. As we speak they are building or going to build :
- Femern Tunnel between Copenhagen and Germany, a mix use tunnel with Road and Rail submerged for 17km under the Blatic Sea... just that.
- Aukland City Rail link
- 4th Line of Copenhagen's Metro
- Line 14 extension and line 15 of the Paris Metro
- They built the first 3 lines of Cairo's Metro
- Some Crossrail stations and part of the Tunnel in London
- And countless high-speed rail lines and metro extension around Europe.
So I'm really not worried at all for both East and West extensions. However anything involving SNC worries me. Despite being a Canadian group I just can't get around how bad they screwed up the Confederation Line, to the point where I'm even wondering if they could fail us on the Trillium line too despite being a much simpler rail technology.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by TheMatth69

Despite being a Canadian group I just can't get around how bad they screwed up the Confederation Line, to the point where I'm even wondering if they could fail us on the Trillium line too despite being a much simpler rail technology.

I mean, what parts of the Confederation Line was SNC responsible for screwing up? It largely seems like management and Alstom are responsible for at least 90% of everything that's gone wrong with it to date.

Schedule wise at least, the Trillium Line seems fine so far.. although I hope we don't see any more accidents happen.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

I mean, what parts of the Confederation Line was SNC responsible for screwing up? It largely seems like management and Alstom are responsible for at least 90% of everything that's gone wrong with it to date.

Schedule wise at least, the Trillium Line seems fine so far.. although I hope we don't see any more accidents happen.

The Spirits are our biggest issue in terms of the line's daily operations however, there is a long list of deficiencies included in the City's rectification requirements, including the centenary systems, switches, platform heating, guideway intrusion system, leaking tunnels, olfactory issues in the tunnel just to name a few.

Full report is available on O-Train Fans: https://www.otrainfans.ca/news/memo-...ication-notice

Trillium Stage 2 seems to be moving well so far, last month's incident aside, but I'm still very worried due to their horrible technical submission.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

The Spirits are our biggest issue in terms of the line's daily operations however, there is a long list of deficiencies included in the City's rectification requirements, including the centenary systems, switches, platform heating, guideway intrusion system, leaking tunnels, olfactory issues in the tunnel just to name a few.

Full report is available on O-Train Fans: https://www.otrainfans.ca/news/memo-...ication-notice

Trillium Stage 2 seems to be moving well so far, last month's incident aside, but I'm still very worried due to their horrible technical submission.

The question is, how many of those things were SNC's role in RTG? I suspect very few of them, but I don't know.

It'll be a different story with SNC managing everything on the Trillium Line.

[Catenary]

Originally Posted by TheMatth69

Let's not forget that Kiewit is in consortium with Vinci. In France Vinci is in charge of a lot of huge projects same goes around Europe, they're a pretty strong company. As we speak they are building or going to build :
- Femern Tunnel between Copenhagen and Germany, a mix use tunnel with Road and Rail submerged for 17km under the Blatic Sea... just that.
- Aukland City Rail link
- 4th Line of Copenhagen's Metro
- Line 14 extension and line 15 of the Paris Metro
- They built the first 3 lines of Cairo's Metro
- Some Crossrail stations and part of the Tunnel in London
- And countless high-speed rail lines and metro extension around Europe.
So I'm really not worried at all for both East and West extensions. However anything involving SNC worries me. Despite being a Canadian group I just can't get around how bad they screwed up the Confederation Line, to the point where I'm even wondering if they could fail us on the Trillium line too despite being a much simpler rail technology.

One thing that has really surprised me about Stage 2 is the extent which KEV seems to be doing work in-house. For stage 1, you occasionally saw a small pickup truck with the OLRTC logo on it. All of the actual work was done by common Ottawa heavy civil contractors; Tomlinson, Cavanaugh, and a host of others. There was little to no equipment that actually belonged to the group partners, except maybe some tunneling stuff from Dragados.

This compares to Stage 2. Drive down the 417 and 174 and you won't spot many pieces of equipment that aren't brand new with a KEV logo on the side. Dozens of brand new CAT machines, pickup trucks all over the place, support equipment, trailers - all of it shiny and new. The only things that seem to be contracted out is bridge work (Marathon), traffic control and some trucking, but there are lots of KEV branded dump trucks too. There was some work on the SJAM realignment contracted out at the beginning, I assume so they could mobilize faster. There is some Eurovia equipment mixed in too - I assume because they have a presence in Quebec and Gatineau already they pulled from there. All of this surprises me a bit, but unlike Stage 1, the consortium for the E-W portion of Stage 2 is more construction focused and less management and engineering focused, which may be the difference.

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

The question is, how many of those things were SNC's role in RTG? I suspect very few of them, but I don't know.

It'll be a different story with SNC managing everything on the Trillium Line.

I've heard a lot of stories about how SNC basically designed the system for Vancouver, then realized winter was a thing here and shoehorned in a bunch of stuff. The HVAC techs are having a fun time.

[J.OT13]

I noticed a lot of KEV branded vehicles as well, but wasn't sure what it stood for, though I assumed the "K" was for Kiewit. Does KEV stand for Kiewit-Eurovia-Vinci? I was expecting to see East-West Connector branding.

Anyone else have some insight on how the projects are going? I know you, Catenary, had some inside info on Stage 1.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Catenary

I've heard a lot of stories about how SNC basically designed the system for Vancouver, then realized winter was a thing here and shoehorned in a bunch of stuff. The HVAC techs are having a fun time.

Ah, that would explain a lot.

[OTownandDown]

Its interesting you know, people throw around these giant megaprojects with these giant general contractors.

But what it comes down to are the people employed here, in Ottawa, on this particular job.

Sure they probably have a fancy proprietary project management software, training for the paperwork and organizational stuff.

But what are the qualifications of the people working here, today? Not the company in France building a large tunnel. Those people in France aren't necessarily working here.

It's the same for the existing train line. Sure, a handful of people worked on a train line before, but you think 10,000 employees were brought from overseas or other jurisdictions to actually build the thing? Same for the day-to-day management. The employees doing the maintenance have had the training, but they're likely originally from Ottawa, and this is a new job for them. In 20 years we're going to have a big cohort of experts.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by OTownandDown

Its interesting you know, people throw around these giant megaprojects with these giant general contractors.

But what it comes down to are the people employed here, in Ottawa, on this particular job.

Sure they probably have a fancy proprietary project management software, training for the paperwork and organizational stuff.

But what are the qualifications of the people working here, today? Not the company in France building a large tunnel. Those people in France aren't necessarily working here.

It's the same for the existing train line. Sure, a handful of people worked on a train line before, but you think 10,000 employees were brought from overseas or other jurisdictions to actually build the thing? Same for the day-to-day management. The employees doing the maintenance have had the training, but they're likely originally from Ottawa, and this is a new job for them. In 20 years we're going to have a big cohort of experts.

And that summarize part of the issues with Stage 1. Local workers with no experience with rail projects. Sure we had contractors with experience coming from other cities in Canada (who had issues with the RTM general contractors who were also inexperienced), but we also had local greenhorns.

Hopefully, those who worked on Stage 1 hired for more work on Stage 2 have gathered enough experience to work more efficiently and effectively.

[Catenary]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I noticed a lot of KEV branded vehicles as well, but wasn't sure what it stood for, though I assumed the "K" was for Kiewit. Does KEV stand for Kiewit-Eurovia-Vinci? I was expecting to see East-West Connector branding.

Anyone else have some insight on how the projects are going? I know you, Catenary, had some inside info on Stage 1.

KEV is Kiewit-Eurovia-Vinci as you say. E-W Connectors seems to be dead as a brand, they're sticking to their corporate names.

Originally Posted by OTownandDown

Its interesting you know, people throw around these giant megaprojects with these giant general contractors.

But what it comes down to are the people employed here, in Ottawa, on this particular job.

Sure they probably have a fancy proprietary project management software, training for the paperwork and organizational stuff.

But what are the qualifications of the people working here, today? Not the company in France building a large tunnel. Those people in France aren't necessarily working here.

It's the same for the existing train line. Sure, a handful of people worked on a train line before, but you think 10,000 employees were brought from overseas or other jurisdictions to actually build the thing? Same for the day-to-day management. The employees doing the maintenance have had the training, but they're likely originally from Ottawa, and this is a new job for them. In 20 years we're going to have a big cohort of experts.

At least with Eurovia, there is a bit of a local presence. For many of these projects, there is both a local presence at the trades and labour level, and a group that does come in from afar. I personally knew of people who moved from Vancouver with SNC to work on Stage 1, and spotted Crosslinx vests from Toronto on Stage 1 sites as well. As long as management is competent, local labour should be able to do most civil works. For more complex tasks, a lot of the work was hired out - there is railway knowledge in Ontario, and many of those contractors came from across the province. I think we saw the lack of experience with the OHLE in Ontario though. Alltrade, the electrical contractor brought people in from all over, but we were the first major OHLE project in Ontario in a long long time, other than K-W which was concurrent. Now that Alltrade has those skills, you'll find them in Toronto working on Eglinton.

I have heard concerns about Alstom though, who apparently didn't send as many experienced folks over, and it shows. There have been jokes that most of the Alstom Techs were line cooks 5 years ago, all hired locally with no experience and little guidance from experienced people. I know someone at Bombardier locally said there was a push for SNC to retain that talent, who already had experience with the LINTs. This would be rather than starting from scratch, but I don't know what came of it.

[TheMatth69]

Originally Posted by OTownandDown

Its interesting you know, people throw around these giant megaprojects with these giant general contractors.

But what it comes down to are the people employed here, in Ottawa, on this particular job.

Sure they probably have a fancy proprietary project management software, training for the paperwork and organizational stuff.

But what are the qualifications of the people working here, today? Not the company in France building a large tunnel. Those people in France aren't necessarily working here.

It's the same for the existing train line. Sure, a handful of people worked on a train line before, but you think 10,000 employees were brought from overseas or other jurisdictions to actually build the thing? Same for the day-to-day management. The employees doing the maintenance have had the training, but they're likely originally from Ottawa, and this is a new job for them. In 20 years we're going to have a big cohort of experts.

Mentioning France, Danemark or England projects built by Vinci was mostly to highlight the expertise Vinci has in building such massive projects. When you have expertise: high ranked engineers, planners, designers etc... who work on most of Vinci's projects, can translate that same expertise more effectively and it all benefits the project in the end. This means:
- Better management of timelines
- Better forecasting and preventing of problems such as weather, ressources, labour...
- Translate information and expectations more effectively to work crews and on-terrain engineers
- It also means higher expectations and therefore less tolerance in working with untrained/non qualified work force.

Of course we're not going to bring workers from France, but the people thinking and planning the construction are surely not going to be coming from Ottawa or even Canada for that matter.