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Originally Posted by mdiederi
Yikes.
Forget where I read it, but one of the columns in the press recently said they thought they might run into some problems putting that project together.
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I think I read somewhere (I think it was via a link on the Las Vegas Death Watch website, but I'm not sure) that they might not be able to do it as they had planned when they made this rendering (business as (almost) usual in the resort during renovations and keeping the two current towers), and that there new plan might consist of getting rid of one tower, laying off people (I guess during construction), probably because of a complete or partial closing of the resort. It would'nt surprise me if they eventually decide to implode the whole thing, nor would it surprise me if nothing significant happens the next 5 years or so with the property, especially if Circus Circus and/or Frontier closes within the next couple of years and more mid-market tourists need a new 'home'.
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It generates over $80,000,000 per year in free cash flow. Compared to MGM as a whole, which generates about $800,000,000/yr in cash. $80 mil is not insignificant. So, while the revenues for CC are fairly low, the net margins there are quite high due to the absolute lack of capital expenditures at that site.
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Maybe I misinterpretet your calculations/numbers, but if a resort that requires minimal investments, but still generates 10% of your cash flow, what does it say about the performance of the other 9(?) MGM resorts on the strip? 10% Would be pretty significant especially if you have as many resorts as MGM. Or dit you mean the MGM Grand?
If MGM thinks or, (more probably) calculates and forecasts that they can make more money out of their acres by replacing Circus Circus, then they'll do so, but for us to make any kind of reasonable guess, we will have to wait for more information on their plans with the aquired land and/or new rumours/inside information. I personally can't imagine that MGM expects/plans Circus Circus in its current form to last competitive for more then 5 to 10 years, but I might be completly wrong and they probably know a bit more about this business then I do
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I do agree with you that it is very likely that they will wait with any signigicant changes to Circus Circus after they have finished,or are well on their way developing their newly aquired parts plus probably the rv park and motel.
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Maybe like what Echelon is doing with the Ho land.
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Echelon in its current form does not offer any residential program, does it? Will they use the Ho land for hotel condo's or whatever kind of residence/hotel combination they can think of, or will they use it to expand the resort and/or add a boutique hotel?