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  #521  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2021, 10:26 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Biden won Nassau but Trump did quite well there for an affluent suburban county.
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  #522  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2021, 12:52 AM
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Nassau is 20% Jewish (and disproportionately Orthodox) and 25% Italian. Those demographics tend to be Trumpy and that probably accounts for much of the discrepancy between Nassau and apples-apples affluent suburban counties.

I mean, Five Towns and Great Neck and West Hempstead all voted Trump. Those community typologies (inner, affluent, educated Northeastern suburb) would be very blue if it weren't for the Orthodox. And the South Shore of Nassau, still relatively affluent, has lots of Italians.

Trump won one Census tract in affluent, educated, walkable, urbanish Lawrence (Five Towns) 95%-5%. That's insane and not even replicated in West Virginia tracts. But if it weren't Orthodox, and just a regular affluent railroad suburb, it would be deep blue.

Regular affluent Nassau county suburbia (not Orthodox or Italian) seems to generally be 70-30 Biden, about what you'd expect.
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  #523  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2021, 1:03 AM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
NY is not as liberal as people think it is. The changing composition of the Jewish population in the NY region will make the state more competitive than people realize in a few decades...unless the politics around Israel change.
If you're saying "the Orthodox vote share in NY state will increasingly tilt NY politics," I agree.

But the Orthodox vote is very malleable, and has voted 95% blue in past elections. They don't really fit the red-blue, liberal-conservative boxes (even if they're very socially conservative). The main takeaway is that they vote as a uniform bloc, so if you get their support, you get all their support. They would undoubtedly have voted for Sanders if his platform included federal funding and no federal/state oversight of private schools.
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  #524  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2021, 1:27 AM
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A segment of American Jewry has moved right. The growth of the Orthodox as a share of the Jewish electorate is the main reason for the rightward shift. Maybe a bit among Conservative Jews too since they tend to live in Jewish neighborhoods, don't intermarry much and are more likely to be swayed on Israel I suspect. But two thirds of American Jews are Reform or no affiliation.

Meanwhile no swing in Scarsdale. Other elite Westchester suburbs had a larger D swing. Which makes sense. The professional class Jewish-liberal vote is pretty maxed out. Scarsdale is probably around 40-50% Jewish, I think. Most of the other elite Westchester suburbs have large Jewish populations, but not as large as Scarsdale - so there's more room for a D swing.

The elite WASP vs. elite Jews difference is narrowing. A neo-conservative Jewish intellectual once stated that Jews earn like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Ricans. Since then the difference between Jewish and high-status WASP voters has narrowed - but that has more to do with the latter shifting away from the Republicans (many of the children and grandchildren of these WASP Republicans are likely Democrats now or at least "never Trump" Republicans).

Last edited by Docere; Jun 5, 2021 at 2:34 AM.
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  #525  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2021, 7:22 AM
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Exactly, do not be fooled by fools, Nashville has eons to go to be a liberal bastion, Ohio is a joke.
I certainly wouldn't call Nashville a liberal bastion relative to the rest of the nation, and I don't know anyone who would. But it's absolutely a liberal bastion relative to the deep red region it is situated in. In fact, it might have one of the sharpest liberal/conservative divides between city and suburbs in the country. Much of Nashville's suburban areas reflect the region's more conservative politics, but Nashville/Davidson county is very solidly blue, and always has been. Biden received more than twice as many votes as Trump in the 2020 election, for example (65% to 32%) which is very comparable to most other big blue counties with a major city in them not named King or Multnomah or Cook etc. Anyway, my point is that the overall political slant of metro Nashville as a whole is not really at all reflective of the environment you'll encounter in Nashville proper. Just, ya know, for the record.
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  #526  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2021, 3:07 PM
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In fact, it might have one of the sharpest liberal/conservative divides between city and suburbs in the country.
Metro Milwaukee steps forward
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  #527  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2021, 3:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Metro Milwaukee steps forward
I read something a few years ago that characterized Milwaukee's relationship with its burbs as what Metro Detroit was like 30 years ago. Some of the political stories that have come out of Wisconsin recently definitely seem familiar.
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  #528  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2021, 3:58 PM
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Metro Milwaukee steps forward
Fair point! I was a bit shell shocked when I found myself out in Waukesha one weekend a few years ago and found my friend's neighborhood (if you could even call it that) thoroughly peppered with Trump signs.
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  #529  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2021, 6:47 PM
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Fair point! I was a bit shell shocked when I found myself out in Waukesha one weekend a few years ago and found my friend's neighborhood (if you could even call it that) thoroughly peppered with Trump signs.
my in-laws live in Brookfield.

enough said.
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  #530  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2021, 8:29 PM
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Metro Milwaukee steps forward
Asheville, NC too. Its a very liberal city surrounded by the district that voted for Madison Cawthorn.
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  #531  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2021, 3:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Metro Milwaukee steps forward
How polarized is Milwaukee?

The last Republican to win Milwaukee County was Eisenhower in 1956.

The last Democrat to win any of the WOW counties was Johnson in 1964.

The Milwaukee/WOW split has held firm for six decades!
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  #532  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2021, 6:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
A segment of American Jewry has moved right. The growth of the Orthodox as a share of the Jewish electorate is the main reason for the rightward shift. Maybe a bit among Conservative Jews too since they tend to live in Jewish neighborhoods, don't intermarry much and are more likely to be swayed on Israel I suspect. But two thirds of American Jews are Reform or no affiliation.

Meanwhile no swing in Scarsdale. Other elite Westchester suburbs had a larger D swing. Which makes sense. The professional class Jewish-liberal vote is pretty maxed out. Scarsdale is probably around 40-50% Jewish, I think. Most of the other elite Westchester suburbs have large Jewish populations, but not as large as Scarsdale - so there's more room for a D swing.

The elite WASP vs. elite Jews difference is narrowing. A neo-conservative Jewish intellectual once stated that Jews earn like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Ricans. Since then the difference between Jewish and high-status WASP voters has narrowed - but that has more to do with the latter shifting away from the Republicans (many of the children and grandchildren of these WASP Republicans are likely Democrats now or at least "never Trump" Republicans).
The shifting counts of who is a Jew is also really playing into the perception around this. Many young people born in liberal Jewish households don't belong to a temple and don't regularly perform Jewish religious practices. In a lot of surveys they aren't counted as "Jewish", which has a tendency to swing the statistics in a more conservative direction than if they measured the political preferences of the ethnically Jewish instead.
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  #533  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2021, 7:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
How polarized is Milwaukee?

The last Republican to win Milwaukee County was Eisenhower in 1956.

The last Democrat to win any of the WOW counties was Johnson in 1964.

The Milwaukee/WOW split has held firm for six decades!
man, those WOW counties sure are committed to their policical conservatism.

once upon a time decades ago, you could have made the comparison that waukesha county and dupage county down in chicagoland were extremely similar counties. both majortiy white, large concentration of midde and upper middle post-war suburbia, lots of college degrees, high incomes, politically conservative, etc.

but not any more. dupage, like many upper middle class white suburban counties around the nation has taken a hard turn left recently (+18.1 biden), while waukesha remains steadfastly conservative(+20.8 trump). in the last election, they were damn near inversions of each other, yet the underlying demographics haven't changed anywhere close to that radically.

it's a very curious development to me.
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  #534  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2021, 8:43 PM
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man, those WOW counties sure are committed to their policical conservatism.

once upon a time decades ago, you could have made the comparison that waukesha county and dupage county down in chicagoland were extremely similar counties. both majortiy white, large concentration of midde and upper middle post-war suburbia, lots of college degrees, high incomes, politically conservative, etc.

but not any more. dupage, like many upper middle class white suburban counties around the nation has taken a hard turn left recently (+18.1 biden), while waukesha remains steadfastly conservative(+20.8 trump). in the last election, they were damn near inversions of each other, yet the underlying demographics haven't changed anywhere close to that radically.

it's a very curious development to me.
They aren’t thaaat similar:

From 2010 Census

Dupage County: 77% white
Waukesha County: 93% white

Plus, with metro Chicago in general skewing more Democratic these days through what I call “auto-selection” (ie Conservatives find themselves with an increasingly narrow path to representation and choose to leave the region rather than “stay and win elections”) whereas Wisconsin is still very much “up for grabs”, the huge spread between Waukesha and Dupage Counties is very feasible
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  #535  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2021, 9:11 PM
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They aren’t thaaat similar:

From 2010 Census

Dupage County: 77% white
Waukesha County: 93% white

You're right, and their NH-white shares have dropped even more vs. 2010.

As of census 2020, here are the NH-white shares for the 2 counties.

Dupage: 63.4% NH-white
Waukesha: 85.5% NH-white


I hadn't appreciated the degree to which dupage has been diversifying. I think my mental image of the place is stuck in the '80s.
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  #536  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2021, 11:59 PM
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A also suspect that DuPage whites are pretty different than Waukesha whites.

Parts of inner DuPage are very affluent, white, cosmopolitan. They're more like the older parts of the North Shore than suburban Milwaukee. I can't imagine places like Hinsdale going for the GOP populist swing. It's just a bad demographic for that kind of appeal. Probably vote more like Wilmette. Too educated, too establishment.
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  #537  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 12:03 AM
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Not sure if Burr Ridge is DuPage or Cook, but I got Trumpy vibes there, and it's white and affluent. I think it attracts a certain kind of demographic (maybe contractors, small business owners and the like) that may be more amenable to Trumpism and anti-elitist sentiment. It isn't really the Loop professional crowd, even though the incomes are probably the same.
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  #538  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 12:51 AM
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Burr Ridge is in both cook and dupage counties. County line road (the border between the two) slices right through the town. It looks like the split might be 60/40 in favor of dupage, at least in terms of land area.
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  #539  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
I hadn't appreciated the degree to which dupage has been diversifying. I think my mental image of the place is stuck in the '80s.
^ Your image (and you're not alone) of the burbs around Chicagoland is definitely behind the times.

It has become far more diverse than you may remember growing up.

I'm in a pretty "white" suburb compared to others, and on my little cul de sac we have my Indian family, a Chinese family next door, another Indian family across the street, a Muslim family next to them, and then 2 houses down another Chinese family. My kid rides his bike a few blocks away to play with his Chinese friend and his Indian neighbor.

Sure, we aren't exactly Brooklyn over here, but far more diverse than how things were in the 80s.
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  #540  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 4:27 PM
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^ yeah, the political divergence of dupage county from waukesha county over the past couple decades probably does have a lot to do with the diverging demographics of the two counties. they were once both 95% white back in the day, but not anymore.

chicago's collar counties are all fully on board the diversity train now (only 55 - 65% NH-white), while milwaukee's WOW counties have remained overwhelmingly white (85 - 90% NH-white).

not only does the higher minority percentage mean more left-leaning voters of those minority demographics, but there's also probably a general correlation of white people who live among greater diversity being more left-leaning compared to white people in more demographically monolithic places like the WOW counties.
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