15 Largest Cities by 2046?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It's weird how cities that grow in the Midwest are the most generic, without any or little urban appeal. They are growing at Sunbelt rates while their more attractive neighbours are either stagnant or declining.

Most people don't choose where to live based on factors like relative urbanism or unique character. These are niche preferences.

And, wow, Des Moines has crazy growth. That town is super-generic and totally isolated, though the downtown is healthy and intact.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It's weird how cities that grow in the Midwest are the most generic, without any or little urban appeal. They are growing at Sunbelt rates while their more attractive neighbours are either stagnant or declining.

Columbus
2000 --- 1,581,066 --- 14.78%
2010 --- 1,801,709 --- 13.96%
2019 --- 2,022,545 --- 12.26%

Indianapolis
2000 --- 1,607,486 --- 16.44%
2010 --- 1,834,672 --- 14.13%
2019 --- 2,021,869 --- 10.20%

Grand Rapids
2000 ----- 935,393 --- 17.15%
2010 ----- 993,670 ---- 6.23%
2019 --- 1,077,370 ---- 8.42%

Des Moines
2000 ---- 456,022 --- 16.06%
2010 ---- 543,027 --- 19.08%
2019 ---- 635,080 --- 16.95%

I don't know much about Indy, Grand Rapids, or Des Moines... but I would NOT put Columbus in the category of "most generic, without any or little urban appeal".

Columbus definitely has urban appeal in my book.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Most people don't choose where to live based on factors like relative urbanism or unique character. These are niche preferences.

And, wow, Des Moines has crazy growth. That town is super-generic and totally isolated, though the downtown is healthy and intact.

Most people just want a stable job, a place they can afford a house and decent schools for their kids. Urban appeal ranks very low for most people. Obviously not people on this site.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It's weird how cities that grow in the Midwest are the most generic, without any or little urban appeal. They are growing at Sunbelt rates while their more attractive neighbours are either stagnant or declining.

well, minneapolis, columbus, indy, des moines, and madison all benefit from being state capitals, which certainly helps. GR isn't, but it greatly benefits from the below, along with the others. flagship state university also propels columbus and madison and minneapolis.

and as crawford alluded to, they're also all "newer" cities that are not saddled with the legacy of HARD CORE deindustrialization to anywhere close to the same degree that the great lakes cities + st. louis and pittsburgh were. their economies have not been turned completely upside down like the old rust-belt giants, who are still trying to sort things out from a half century of the loss of hundreds of thousands of good paying union factory jobs.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

well, minneapolis, columbus, indy, des moines, and madison all benefit from being state capitals, which certainly helps. GR isn't, but it greatly benefits from the below, along with the others. flagship state university also propels columbus and madison and minneapolis.

and as crawford alluded to, they're also all "newer" cities that are not saddled with the legacy of HARD CORE deindustrialization to anywhere close to the same degree that the great lakes cities + st. louis and pittsburgh were. their economies have not been turned completely upside down like the old rust-belt giants, who are still trying to sort things out from a half century of the loss of hundreds of thousands of good paying union factory jobs.

That's a good observations. I grew up in Des Moines and lived in MSP for four years. MSP has a solid level of corporations located there (like Chicago), but without the decades of decay that other rust belt cities have endured.

For Des Moines, it's a solid Midwest city with good schools, a decent local economy (insurance sector), plus being a capitol. As others have noticed, for folks that don't want that urban life, but want a solid, low-cost place to raise kids, it's a winner.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

well, minneapolis, columbus, indy, des moines, and madison all benefit from being state capitals, which certainly helps. GR isn't, but it greatly benefits from the below, along with the others. flagship state university also propels columbus and madison and minneapolis.

and as crawford alluded to, they're also all "newer" cities that are not saddled with the legacy of HARD CORE deindustrialization to anywhere close to the same degree that the great lakes cities + st. louis and pittsburgh were. their economies have not been turned completely upside down like the old rust-belt giants, who are still trying to sort things out from a half century of the loss of hundreds of thousands of good paying union factory jobs.

A lot of what you say is true, but even those cities had hard core legacy industry. For example, I was told Columbus had a Delco plant employing 20,000. The immediate area around the Delco was thriving neighborhood but has since become run down. One possible reason for those cities, besides being the capital, is that they have lots of undeveloped land around them. Downtown Columbus is not that impressive and many of the close in neighborhoods off the expressways are run down, except for a few gentrified and historic neighborhoods, like German and Italian Village but the many of suburbs and exurbs are booming. Columbus came across to me as more of a southern metro, with booming suburbs, a few gentrified areas of the city and relatively staid downtown. Also, many of these metros like Columbus and Minneapolis have attracted the new cadre of immigrants as successfully as larger cities like Chicago and NYC. I believe that Minneapolis and Columbus have the most Somolian immigrants in the country. I believe Nashville has the largest number of Kurdish immigrants in the country (although only about 15K per Wiki). In the past most immigrants would settle in the large metros, and perhaps they still do, but the smaller and medium size metros are attracting them as well.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It's weird how cities that grow in the Midwest are the most generic, without any or little urban appeal. They are growing at Sunbelt rates while their more attractive neighbours are either stagnant or declining.

Columbus
2000 --- 1,581,066 --- 14.78%
2010 --- 1,801,709 --- 13.96%
2019 --- 2,022,545 --- 12.26%

Indianapolis
2000 --- 1,607,486 --- 16.44%
2010 --- 1,834,672 --- 14.13%
2019 --- 2,021,869 --- 10.20%

Grand Rapids
2000 ----- 935,393 --- 17.15%
2010 ----- 993,670 ---- 6.23%
2019 --- 1,077,370 ---- 8.42%

Des Moines
2000 ---- 456,022 --- 16.06%
2010 ---- 543,027 --- 19.08%
2019 ---- 635,080 --- 16.95%

not weird at all. there are clear choices and reasons for stagnation vs growth. for example, columbus holds its water rights, you want water for your new cornfield subdivision you have to get annexed. cleveland on the other hand has always undervalued lake erie and long ago gave away their water control rights for nothing. also, lets face it, most developers prefer a tabla rasa over redevelopment.

[iheartthed]

Doesn't Columbus also force suburbs to get annexed into the city in order to connect to the water supply? That's an effective mechanism to manage and prevent the runaway sprawl that's afflicting many of the declining Rust Belt cities.

[Omaharocks]

^ Yes, and that's what many southwestern cities do as well, such as Albuquerque. As a result, while sprawly, Albuquerque probably has the best connected sprawl of any mid-sized city - there is almost no "leap-frog" development.

[Omaharocks]

I would not say that the cities in the midwest that are doing well are less urban than the ones that aren't. Minneapolis is probably the best urban environment in the region outside Chicago, and it's doing quite well.

And Kansas City has a lot of character and historic building stock - I recently traveled there and to Cleveland, and I'd argue Kansas City is just as, if not more urban. It certainly feels very healthy.

Indianapolis is a bit of an outlier, in that it doesn't have any old, walkable neighborhoods outside of downtown. But even Columbus has quite a few, that are quite vibrant.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Most people don't choose where to live based on factors like relative urbanism or unique character. These are niche preferences.

And, wow, Des Moines has crazy growth. That town is super-generic and totally isolated, though the downtown is healthy and intact.

Sure, but it's not like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis economies are much worse. They're diversified, with high GDP per capita, have pretty nice suburbs for people who don't care about "urbanism or unique character".

The US is a really weird place in this regard. Metro areas growing 40% while others are declining, while having pretty much the same GDP per capita, income or housing prices.

[Chef]

I think Minneapolis is more of a legacy city than people realize. Minneapolis and St Paul combined had around 365,000 people in 1900 which would have made it the eighth largest city in the US - larger than Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington or New Orleans.

There are two reasons why it isn't perceived as such. The original buildout of Minneapolis was extremely dense - almost its entire population of 200,000 in 1900 lived in what is now downtown. Other than the Warehouse District, a few mills along the river and some pockets in Elliot Park almost none of that city survives. Most of the city now is the streetcar suburbia that grew up between 1900 and 1930.

The other reason is that the city's main manufacturing industry was food processing which for the most part is still here, so the city didn't go through the same deindustrialization that the rust belt did in the 1980s. The Twin Cities actually have a fairly significant manufacturing component to their economy, it is just not in heavy industry to the same degree as other Midwestern cities were.

[iheartthed]

Minneapolis definitely has a substantial pre-war core and, like just about every other American city that had a substantial pre-war core, Minneapolis went through several decades of population decline in the latter half of the 20th century. But Minneapolis's population trajectory looks more similar to Boston's or Washington's population dive and late 20th century recovery than it does to the heavy industry cities in the eastern Great Lakes (Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Pittsburgh).

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Chef

I think Minneapolis is more of a legacy city than people realize. Minneapolis and St Paul combined had around 365,000 people in 1900 which would have made it the eighth largest city in the US - larger than Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington or New Orleans.

There are two reasons why it isn't perceived as such. The original buildout of Minneapolis was extremely dense - almost its entire population of 200,000 in 1900 lived in what is now downtown. Other than the Warehouse District, a few mills along the river and some pockets in Elliot Park almost none of that city survives. Most of the city now is the streetcar suburbia that grew up between 1900 and 1930.

I don't doubt what you're describing about Minneapolis one bit, but kind of an odd way to rank city size though, no? ... adding the Twin Cities together as basically a metro area, but comparing that "metro" population figure to the populations of other cities proper?

For instance, in 1900, the city of Pittsburgh had approx 320,000. Allegheny City (annexed in 1907) right across the river had 130,000. The remainder of Allegheny County population was another 325,000 and consisted of urban industrial cities and towns bordering the city of Pittsburgh... places like McKeesport, Homestead, Braddock, Wilkinsburg... with populations between roughly 15-40k back at the turn of the century.

[Yuri]

By the turn of the century, Pittsburgh (935k, 2-county definition) and St. Louis (775k, city plus 3 counties) were, by a large margin, the 5th and 6th largest metro areas in the US.

Minneapolis-St. Paul (3-county) even though quite impressive, it would be far behind at 420k.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

By the turn of the century, Pittsburgh (935k, 2-county definition) and St. Louis (775k, city plus 3 counties) were, by a large margin, the 5th and 6th largest metro areas in the US.

^ I'm guessing the top 4 were

NYC
Chicago
Philly
Boston

In that order?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ I'm guessing the top 4 were

NYC
Chicago
Philly
Boston

In that order?

Yes. We can use the 1950 definitions, the first the US Census came up with, maybe subtracting some outer counties. I wouldn't change Philadelphia and Boston (8-county and 4-county definitions, respectively).

[Steely Dan]

^ Does a top 20 exist for US metros in 1900?

Would be interesting to see. I'm guessing it would be dominated by the northeast & midwest with some far flung outposts like san fran & new orleans

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ Does a top 20 exist for US metros in 1900?

Would be interesting to see. I'm guessing it would be dominated by the northeast & midwest with some far flung outposts like san fran & new orleans

When I was 16 or so, I made a full list of them, using the US historic definitions for 1950: https://www.census.gov/geographies/r...ion-files.html

1920 1910 1900
Akron 286065 108253 71715
Albany 408598 384177 334120
Albuquerque 29855 23606 28630
Allentown 346664 289686 231361
Altoona 128334 108858 85099
Amarillo 20385 15736 2783
Asheville 64148 49798 44288
Atlanta 307094 234011 163139
Atlantic City 83914 71894 46402
Augusta 109266 100735 92767
Austin 57616 55620 47386
Baltimore 852051 720387 639332
Baton Rouge 44513 34580 31153
Bay City 69548 68238 62378
Beaumont 73120 38182 14239
Binghamton 113610 78809 69149
Birmingham 310054 226476 140420
Boston-Bro-Law-Low 2472079 2169623 1799667
Bridgeport-Stamford 320936 245322 184203
Buffalo 753393 621021 508647
Canton 177218 122987 94747
Cedar Rapids 74004 60720 55392
Charleston 108450 88594 88006
Charleston 180027 133360 86683
Charlotte 80695 67031 55268
Chattanooga 139324 107959 77356
Chicago 3521789 2752820 2092883
Cincinnati 628999 590456 527293
Cleveland 972162 660352 460600
Columbia 78122 55143 45589
Columbus 76909 67750 62709
Columbus 283951 221567 164460
Corpus Christi 22807 21955 10439
Dallas 210551 135748 82726
Davenport 166249 130404 106807
Dayton 240753 193536 161759
Decatur 65175 54186 44003
Denver 299087 246767 162323
Des Moines 154029 110438 82624
Detroit 1305798 613773 426829
Duluth 256162 210696 119267
Durham 42219 35276 26233
El Paso 101877 52599 24886
Erie 153536 115517 98473
Evansville 92293 77438 71769
Flint 125668 64555 41804
Fort Wayne 114303 93386 77270
Fort Worth 152800 108572 52376
Fresno 128779 75657 37862
Gadsden 47275 39109 27361
Galveston 53150 44479 44116
Grand Rapids 183041 159145 129714
Green Bay 61889 54098 46359
Greensboro 79272 60497 39074
Greenville 88498 68377 53490
Hamilton 87025 70271 56870
Harrisburg 211694 190631 164787
Hartford-New Brit 336027 250182 195480
Honolulu 123496 81993 58504
Houston 186667 115693 63786
Huntington 160580 133698 111039
Indianapolis 348061 263661 197227
Jackson 72539 53426 48222
Jackson 57110 63726 52577
Jacksonville 113540 75163 39733
Johnstown 279951 233848 154298
Kalamazoo 71225 60427 44310
Kansas City 528833 422180 305427
Kenosha 51284 32929 21707
Knoxville 160024 132713 111142
Lancaster 173797 167029 159241
Lansing 81554 53310 39818
Laredo 29152 22503 21851
Lexington 54664 47715 42071
Lima 68223 56580 47976
Lincoln 85902 73793 64835
Little Rock 109464 86751 63179
Lorain 90612 76037 54857
Los Angeles 997830 538567 189994
Louisville 346411 323473 294102
Lubbock 11096 3624 293
Macon 93268 80255 73114
Madison 89432 77435 69435
Manchester 135512 126072 112640
Memphis 223216 191439 153557
Miami 42753 11933 4955
Milwaukee 539449 433187 330017
Minneapolis 704566 594819 431940
Mobile 100117 80854 62740
Montgomery 80853 82178 72047
Muncie 56377 51414 49624
Nashville 167815 149478 122815
New Haven-Waterbury 415214 337282 269163
New Orleans 413750 362599 307456
New York 8490694 7049047 5048550
Norfolk 241148 164912 126023
Ogden 43463 35179 25239
Oklahoma City 116307 85232 25915
Omaha 275444 233652 204006
Orlando 19890 19107 11374
Peoria 150250 134282 121829
Philadelphia 2714271 2268209 1892128
Phoenix 89576 34488 20457
Pittsburgh 1759989 1471600 1083846
Pittsfield 113033 105259 95667
Portland 124376 112014 100689
Portland 372777 303829 150711
Providence-FR-NB 834195 742926 580712
Pueblo 57638 52223 34448
Racine 78961 57424 45644
Raleigh 75155 63229 54626
Reading 200854 183222 159615
Richmond 211135 172364 133916
Roanoke 73237 54497 37332
Rochester 352034 283212 217854
Rockford 90929 63153 47845
Sacramento 91029 67806 45915
Saginaw 100286 89290 81222
St. Joseph 93684 93020 121838
St. Louis 1139877 1003858 801131
Salt Lake City 159282 131426 77725
San Angelo 15210 17882 6804
San Antonio 202096 119676 69422
San Bernardino 73401 56706 27929
San Diego 112248 61665 35090
San Francisco 1009467 773975 542964
San Jose 100676 83539 60216
Savannah 100032 79690 71239
Scranton 286311 259570 193831
Seattle 389273 284638 110053
Shreveport 83265 58200 44499
Sioux City 92171 67616 54610
Sioux Falls 42490 29631 23926
South Bend 103304 84312 58881
Spokane 141289 139404 57542
Springfield 100262 91024 71593
Springfield 68698 63831 52713
Springfield 80728 66435 58939
Springfield 369904 294696 234423
Stockton 79905 50731 35452
Syracuse 241465 200298 168735
Tacoma 144127 120812 55515
Tampa 116522 78374 36013
Terre Haute 100212 87930 62035
Toledo 275721 192728 153559
Topeka 69159 61874 53727
Trenton 159881 125657 95365
Tulsa 109023 34995 -
Utica 247795 210513 183849
Waco 82921 73250 59772
Washington 571882 445401 378605
Waterloo 56570 44865 32399
Wheeling 303848 253802 193212
Wichita 92234 73095 44037
Wichita Falls 72911 16094 5806
Wilkes-Barre 390991 343186 257121
Wilmington 184811 150187 135227
Winston-Salem 77269 47311 35261
Worcester 455135 399657 346958
York 144521 136405 116413
Youngstown 364018 246616 174112

Note the New England areas were city-based, not county-based, but i, for obvious reasons, used counties.

I'd repair some mistakes today, as Google Maps don't even exist back then. Plymouth County, for example, wouldn't be part of Boston metro area in 1950, let alone in 1900. So feel free to subtract it. Providence was a bit bigger though. For 1900, I'd used only the 3 northernmost and wouldn't invaded Massachusetts.

Pittsburgh is a bit weird as people always mention, more like a collect of dense villages. In 1950, they used a 4-county definition. For 1900, I'd guess it would be Allegheny and Westmoreland only.

[plinko]

Johnstown 279951 233848 154298

Where is this?