Confederation Line West LRT Extension (Stage 2) [Tunney's to Baseline/Moodie] | U/C

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by OTownandDown

How amazing would it be if the westbound train terminated at the westbound bus platform, simply walk across the flat 15 foot wide platform onto a waiting bus. Bangkok has amazing train transfer platforms where two distinct train lines terminate on the same island, so people can simply walk across the island onto the next waiting train.

The hundred waiting buses that are out of service need to be closest. Walk over there, about a football field away for your bus, departing in 1 minute. Oh, too bad, you missed it. Next bus 29 minutes.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

A whopping 50 routes currently terminate at or service Tunney's Pasture compared to 19 that go though Moodie. The transfer issues post-Stage 2 will pale in comparison.

What's going to suffer in Stage 2 is frequency. If we can barely keep 5 minute headways with 13 trains spread out on 12.5 kilometres of track, doubling the train sets but tripling the distance (12.5+12 east+15 west) will definitely affect the service.

Well put. It's already clear that morning peak needs 3 min headways, with longer dwell times at existing stations. That probably means 17-20 paired trains. 36 paired trains is not close to sufficient. They probably need to have 40 paired trains in service on any given morning as minimum to get to 4 min frequencies in the future. Probably need 50-60 pairs to have 3 min service on the main portion of the line during the morning.

[AuxTown]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Well put. It's already clear that morning peak needs 3 min headways, with longer dwell times at existing stations. That probably means 17-20 paired trains. 36 paired trains is not close to sufficient. They probably need to have 40 paired trains in service on any given morning as minimum to get to 4 min frequencies in the future. Probably need 50-60 pairs to have 3 min service on the main portion of the line during the morning.

I would hope that they have modeled this to the nth degree. I don't think we need 3min headways once the full system is up and running. 5 minutes would be sufficient as we wouldn't be dealing with the same level of bottleneck that we see currently at Tunney's and Blair.

[Kitchissippi]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

I would hope that they have modeled this to the nth degree. I don't think we need 3min headways once the full system is up and running. 5 minutes would be sufficient as we wouldn't be dealing with the same level of bottleneck that we see currently at Tunney's and Blair.

Dunno, someone check my math. It seems to me that frequency would be governed by how far apart the trains are spaced on the track. Our 12.5 kms is basically like a 25km loop so 25/13 trains = 1.92 kms apart. 5 minutes = 12 per hour, thus 12x1.92=23kph average speed including stops and pauses seems about right.

Post Stage 2 we’ll have 39.5 kms so a 79 km loop. Even if we ran all 72 trains coupled into 36 pairs that’s 79/36=2.19 kms apart, which would be longer intervals if the average speed remains the same.

Maybe the trains will run faster? Maybe they won’t all run end to end? If the frequency downtown does not change, does it not follow that the capacity of the line does not increase?

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

I would hope that they have modeled this to the nth degree. I don't think we need 3min headways once the full system is up and running. 5 minutes would be sufficient as we wouldn't be dealing with the same level of bottleneck that we see currently at Tunney's and Blair.

The frequency is directly related to passenger throughput. It means that if 3 minute frequency is needed today, we will continue to need it after Phase 2. We still have carry the same peak loads between Bayview and Hurdman. If the Confederation Line is a success in soliciting new ridership, will need even better frequency. Moving backwards to 5 minute frequency will cause massive problems. The bottleneck issues at the terminal stations relate more to passenger flow than the trains themselves.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Dunno, someone check my math. It seems to me that frequency would be governed by how far apart the trains are spaced on the track. Our 12.5 kms is basically like a 25km loop so 25/13 trains = 1.92 kms apart. 5 minutes = 12 per hour, thus 12x1.92=23kph average speed including stops and pauses seems about right.

Post Stage 2 we’ll have 39.5 kms so a 79 km loop. Even if we ran all 72 trains coupled into 36 pairs that’s 79/36=2.19 kms apart, which would be longer intervals if the average speed remains the same.

Maybe the trains will run faster? Maybe the won’t all run end to end? If the frequency downtown does not change, does it not follow that the capacity of the line does not increase?

The capacity of the line between the peak locations between Hurdman and Bayview does not change, but I expect we will pick up some additional passengers that will not use the peak section. So the overall ridership of the C-Line may grow to a degree but that peak section is still constrained.

[Truenorth00]

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[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

I would hope that they have modeled this to the nth degree. I don't think we need 3min headways once the full system is up and running. 5 minutes would be sufficient as we wouldn't be dealing with the same level of bottleneck that we see currently at Tunney's and Blair.

Capacity is a function of frequency. They don't need 3 mins on each Western branch. But they absolutely need 3 min headways on the central portion. And given that Orleans has a single line/branch, they need 3 min frequencies at peak too. The 4 mins right now, in the East, is proving inadequate. They clearly need 3 mins right now.

Also, with branched service in the West, assuming a 1:1 ratio on each branch, means peak service will be half of mainline at each branch. So any headways higher than 3 mins on the trunk, mean greater than 6 mins on the branch. Go to 4 mins on the trunk, and it's 8 mins on the branch. Similar to Trillium today. This is what people don't get. Past the split, the Confederation Line looks a lot like the Trillium Line in the West and Southwest.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Kitchissippi

Dunno, someone check my math. It seems to me that frequency would be governed by how far apart the trains are spaced on the track. Our 12.5 kms is basically like a 25km loop so 25/13 trains = 1.92 kms apart. 5 minutes = 12 per hour, thus 12x1.92=23kph average speed including stops and pauses seems about right.

Post Stage 2 we’ll have 39.5 kms so a 79 km loop. Even if we ran all 72 trains coupled into 36 pairs that’s 79/36=2.19 kms apart, which would be longer intervals if the average speed remains the same.

Your rough math above suggests they should have 42 pairs for the same level of service, after Stage 2. And we already know the current level of service is insufficient. 36 pairs just isn't enough. The 12-13 pairs they run right now are causing issues. How many peak hour jammed doors were there before they got rid of bus service and packed everyone on the trains?

Anything less than 40 is flirting with disaster based on what we've seen this week. I'd argue that 45 pairs running is the absolute minimum to achieve reasonably reliable service, with 50 total pairs to cover spares. 14 additional pairs is at least $390 million more in just vehicles. Not to mention if additional facility space and techs are needed. Easily $500-600 million in acquisitions and lifecycle maintenance costs.

[CityTech]

Remember two things:
-Not all trains will proceed to Orleans; IIRC half of all trains are being shortturned at Blair. Probably that means the Baseline branch will go to Trim but the Moodie branch will only go to Blair.
-The average speed of Phase 2 is higher.

So Phase 2 won't need as many trains as may appear.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Remember two things:
-Not all trains will proceed to Orleans; IIRC half of all trains are being shortturned at Blair. Probably that means the Baseline branch will go to Trim but the Moodie branch will only go to Blair.
-The average speed of Phase 2 is higher.

So Phase 2 won't need as many trains as may appear.

Sure. But the problem here is that they seem to be modelling 4-5 mins on the trunk. So there's inadequate capacity there. They need 3 mins at peak. That's the only way to have the real-world capacity that riders are actually demanding (ie more space per pax than they planned for).

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Sure. But the problem here is that they seem to be modelling 4-5 mins on the trunk. So there's inadequate capacity there. They need 3 mins at peak. That's the only way to have the real-world capacity that riders are actually demanding (ie more space per pax than they planned for).

There is another problem with short-turning trains at Blair. There will be uneven train loading. The ones originating at Trim Road will be much more crowded than the ones originating at Blair. It only makes sense if the trains were branched at Blair. Some decades from now if they extended trains onto the South Orleans Transitway corridor.

[CityTech]

Didn't the city say they expected a 50 min travel time from Trim to Moodie?

From that I'm guesstimating Phase 2 travel times at:
-11 mins from Trim to Blair
-23 mins from Blair to Tunney's
-16 mins from Tunney's to Moodie
-13 mins from Tunney's to Baseline

If trains are branched Trim-Baseline and Blair-Moodie, that's means one branch is 47 minutes and the other is 39 minutes. If each one had 6 minute frequency that would combine to 3 minutes in the overlap.

47 minutes for Trim-Baseline @ 6 mins frequency = 17 trains required (47m+3m turnaround * 2 = 100 mins / 6 minute headway = 16.67, rounds up to 17)

39 minutes for Moodie-Blair @ 6 mins frequency = 14 trains required (39m + 3 m turnaround * 2 = 84 mins / 6 minute headway = 14).

So 3 minute headways on the central overlap part in Phase 2 will require 31 trainsets. We will have 36 trainsets, which is more than enough.

So it looks like they bought enough trains to hit 3 min in the trunk.

[Horus]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

There is another problem with short-turning trains at Blair. There will be uneven train loading. The ones originating at Trim Road will be much more crowded than the ones originating at Blair. It only makes sense if the trains were branched at Blair. Some decades from now if they extended trains onto the South Orleans Transitway corridor.

Is that a problem though? I'm sure the people transferring at Hurdman will be happy to hear that every other train will be at less than standing-room only upon arrival.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Remember two things:
-Not all trains will proceed to Orleans; IIRC half of all trains are being shortturned at Blair. Probably that means the Baseline branch will go to Trim but the Moodie branch will only go to Blair.
-The average speed of Phase 2 is higher.

So Phase 2 won't need as many trains as may appear.

I hope they alternate. Both Baseline and Moodie have major destinations for east-enders. Baseline has Algonquin College and the City of Ottawa offices at 100 Constellation, and of lesser importance Centrepointe Theater and a DND office building. Moodie has Abbott pharmaceuticals and of course the new DND HQ. I'm sure a decent group of east-enders also work in Kanata.

As others have mentioned, Stage 2's average speed will be much higher thanks to the longer distance between stations which allows trains to operate at or near full speed (105 km/h), so math that works for Stage 1 does not apply to Stage 2.

[Gat-Train]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

There is another problem with short-turning trains at Blair. There will be uneven train loading. The ones originating at Trim Road will be much more crowded than the ones originating at Blair. It only makes sense if the trains were branched at Blair. Some decades from now if they extended trains onto the South Orleans Transitway corridor.

You can always short-turn Trim trains at Lincoln Fields or Tunney’s Pasture

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I hope they alternate. Both Baseline and Moodie have major destinations for east-enders. Baseline has Algonquin College and the City of Ottawa offices at 100 Constellation, and of lesser importance Centrepointe Theater and a DND office building. Moodie has Abbott pharmaceuticals and of course the new DND HQ. I'm sure a decent group of east-enders also work in Kanata.

That's actually unworkable because you couldn't space them out correctly. If you did that then trains in the core would have to go two in a row on each branch rather than alternate because trains also have to alternate between Trim and Blair. Think about it. It means the sequence would be:

-Trim-Blair-Moodie
-Blair-Baseline
-Trim-Blair-Baseline
-Blair-Moodie
-Trim-Blair-Moodie
-Blair-Baseline
-Trim-Blair-Baseline
-Blair-Moodie

That means trains would not be arriving at the western termini at appropriate intervals. At Lincoln Fields there's be alternating 3 min and 9 min gaps for departure frequencies on each branch.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Didn't the city say they expected a 50 min travel time from Trim to Moodie?

From that I'm guesstimating Phase 2 travel times at:
-11 mins from Trim to Blair
-23 mins from Blair to Tunney's
-16 mins from Tunney's to Moodie
-13 mins from Tunney's to Baseline

If trains are branched Trim-Baseline and Blair-Moodie, that's means one branch is 47 minutes and the other is 39 minutes. If each one had 6 minute frequency that would combine to 3 minutes in the overlap.

47 minutes for Trim-Baseline @ 6 mins frequency = 17 trains required (47m+3m turnaround * 2 = 100 mins / 6 minute headway = 16.67, rounds up to 17)

39 minutes for Moodie-Blair @ 6 mins frequency = 14 trains required (39m + 3 m turnaround * 2 = 84 mins / 6 minute headway = 14).

So 3 minute headways on the central overlap part in Phase 2 will require 31 trainsets. We will have 36 trainsets, which is more than enough.

So it looks like they bought enough trains to hit 3 min in the trunk.

This plan, if true, is sort of terrible. 6 min headways at rush in Orleans? Those trains are going to be packed. I sincerely hope that's not the plan. And if it is, I hope they've learned something the past few days and will order more trains to simply enable them to send all trains to Trim in the East. Having every second train packed in the core section means you're going to keep getting issues like on door jams or other complaints. They need to smoothe out loads.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This plan, if true, is sort of terrible. 6 min headways at rush in Orleans? Those trains are going to be packed. I sincerely hope that's not the plan. And if it is, I hope they've learned something the past few days and will order more trains to simply enable them to send all trains to Trim in the East. Having every second train packed in the core section means you're going to keep getting issues like on door jams or other complaints. They need to smoothe out loads.

It's what the Stage 2 team said would be happening.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This plan, if true, is sort of terrible. 6 min headways at rush in Orleans? Those trains are going to be packed. I sincerely hope that's not the plan. And if it is, I hope they've learned something the past few days and will order more trains to simply enable them to send all trains to Trim in the East. Having every second train packed in the core section means you're going to keep getting issues like on door jams or other complaints. They need to smoothe out loads.

Alternatively, they could have the shortturn at Place d'Orleans instead of Blair (so alternating Trim-Baseline and Place d'Orleans-Moodie at 6 minutes with 3 minute combined between Lincoln Fields and Place). That would increase the train requirement to 34, still allowing 2 spares.