Halifax Population & Growth

[Querce]

The City is working on a Higher Order Transit Strategy. (Scroll down to the "Transit" section)

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Querce

The City is working on a Higher Order Transit Strategy. (Scroll down to the "Transit" section)

I don't know how, given the current population growth, infrastructure, and low bus ridership, Halifax could possibly bring up its ridership numbers significantly without bringing in new kinds of transit.

Major transit infrastructure also takes a long time to bring online. If the federal government kicked in $1B for LRT tomorrow it would still take 5-10 years to come online. During that time there would be 50,000+ new residents who would largely need to rely on the already overtaxed road network.

[terrynorthend]

@Hfxgov is reporting on Twitter today that out of the 35 major Canadian cities, Halifax had the second highest growth rate from July 1, 2019 to July 1st 2020. We added more than 9000 people in 12 months for a 2.1% growth rate. Contrast this with Toronto which lost a net of 50,000 people over the same period.

This puts Halifax on track to reach 550,000 by 2031 according to Hfxgov.

[Summerville]

Originally Posted by terrynorthend

@Hfxgov is reporting on Twitter today that out of the 35 major Canadian cities, Halifax had the second highest growth rate from July 1, 2019 to July 1st 2020. We added more than 9000 people in 12 months for a 2.1% growth rate. Contrast this with Toronto which lost a net of 50,000 people over the same period.

This puts Halifax on track to reach 550,000 by 2031 according to Hfxgov.

Here is a good twitter link:

https://twitter.com/neil_lovitt/stat...45020023279622

[Antigonish]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't know how, given the current population growth, infrastructure, and low bus ridership, Halifax could possibly bring up its ridership numbers significantly without bringing in new kinds of transit.

Major transit infrastructure also takes a long time to bring online. If the federal government kicked in $1B for LRT tomorrow it would still take 5-10 years to come online. During that time there would be 50,000+ new residents who would largely need to rely on the already overtaxed road network.

The best time to start was yesterday, the next best time is today. Why wait? What is HRM's holdup?

[MolteN]

As of July 1st 2020, according to the government of Canada, Halifax saw high growth despite the pandemic, we're 448,544 for the mentioned date, a slight decrease to 9015 new dwellers but still solid.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

Assuming the rate of growth Halifax should have 457,559 for 7/1/2021

And east hants will be added to the Halifax CMA for the 2021 census

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by terrynorthend

@Hfxgov is reporting on Twitter today that out of the 35 major Canadian cities, Halifax had the second highest growth rate from July 1, 2019 to July 1st 2020. We added more than 9000 people in 12 months for a 2.1% growth rate. Contrast this with Toronto which lost a net of 50,000 people over the same period.

This puts Halifax on track to reach 550,000 by 2031 according to Hfxgov.

There’s a news story going around to the effect that Toronto lost 50,000 people, but it’s a strange mis-reading of the stats. Toronto had a net intraprovincial loss with the rest of Ontario, amounting to 50,000 people. That’s typical—last year it was 46,000. Other components of population growth still saw Toronto gain 93,000 people last year. Halifax did grow significantly faster on a per-capita basis, though.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Yeah. News outlets are not giving the full story on Toronto. Just what fits the Covid-19 narrative.

[someone123]

Turner Drake & Partners released their December 2020 office report for metro Halifax: https://www.turnerdrake.com/survey/attachments/222.pdf

Not sure if we have some more appropriate office thread somewhere.

It surprised me. About 500,000 square feet of positive absorption downtown in 2020, which is the equivalent of filling up the Maritime Centre. About 200,000 square feet added to inventory which is just over 5 million in total.

[q12]

Halifax's population has likely passed 480,000 people as of September 1st, this includes East Hants which has been added to Halifax's CMA estimates in 2021.

Nova Scotia's population estimate is currently 990,700, only 9,300 people away from 1,000,000!

Halifax's CMA also closing in quickly on becoming 50% of the province's total population.

[Mr.Zero33]

Wow, happening a lot quicker than anyone would have thought. Good info.

[DigitalNinja]

EDIT:

I'm silly and didn't read this.

This is happening so fast, should hit 1 Mil next year...

[MolteN]

Truly is exciting for Halifax, but some serious changes need to be made, I'd say a legislation that permanently mandates a cap of 10% for rental increases from the previous rate the existing tenant was paying, example if you pay $950 a month for rent with this law it can only increase $95 to $1045 for the next 12 months.

The provincial government should really surrender funding and authority for affordable housing to the 7 regional municipalities that exist in the province, New Glasgow also should really amalgamate with the surrounding communities.

Considering the census numbers for population aren't released until February 2022, I'm guessing Halifax will be ~483,000 for July 2021

[zahav]

Is there a difference between the Halifax CMA and the HRM? HRM boundaries are huge, and cover way more than what I think of as Halifax. Are the boundaries the same? East Hants seems a stretch to add into the CMA, but StatsCan has its methods, so they must have enough data on it to lump it in.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MolteN

Truly is exciting for Halifax, but some serious changes need to be made, I'd say a legislation that permanently mandates a cap of 10% for rental increases from the previous rate the existing tenant was paying, example if you pay $950 a month for rent with this law it can only increase $95 to $1045 for the next 12 months.

As a reference, Ontario's rent increase cap for 2021 was 0%. In 2020 it was 2.2%. 2022 is set at 1.2%.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/residential-rent-increases

Halifax shouldn't have anything above 5%, IMO. In saying that, though, rules need to also be brought in place to ensure that landlords cannot evict or remove tenants without reason, because that's one way around an occupied-residence rental cap. I managed to stay in a very cheap apartment in central Ottawa for years, but the second I moved out and left it empty the rent was increased by 33%.

Originally Posted by zahav

Is there a difference between the Halifax CMA and the HRM? HRM boundaries are huge, and cover way more than what I think of as Halifax. Are the boundaries the same? East Hants seems a stretch to add into the CMA, but StatsCan has its methods, so they must have enough data on it to lump it in.

Areas being added to CMAs are based on commuting patterns. If East Hants is being added (I can't remember the additions for 2021) then it means that >50% of East Hants' working population is commuting into the Halifax CMA central area (which is the HRM, in this case).

[NewIreland]

Originally Posted by zahav

Is there a difference between the Halifax CMA and the HRM? HRM boundaries are huge, and cover way more than what I think of as Halifax. Are the boundaries the same? East Hants seems a stretch to add into the CMA, but StatsCan has its methods, so they must have enough data on it to lump it in.

Exactly! HRM boundaries are huge... CMA boundaries are massive! Saint John's population is only 130k but if the CMA was as big as Halifax's it would be 425k

[someone123]

Originally Posted by zahav

Is there a difference between the Halifax CMA and the HRM? HRM boundaries are huge, and cover way more than what I think of as Halifax. Are the boundaries the same? East Hants seems a stretch to add into the CMA, but StatsCan has its methods, so they must have enough data on it to lump it in.

Basically this is caused by NS having some large districts that are considered as units for the purposes of the CMA. They are in or they are out. With East Hants most of the population living in the southern part which is about a 35 minute drive to downtown and 15-20 from some other employment areas. It is a bedroom community for the city. People sometimes claim this means the Halifax CMA has a hugely inflated population but this is not the case because most of the added land is sparsely populated. It has a large impact on total land area but not population. And sometimes the large districts cut the other way.

You can see what's going on here:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...of_Nova_Scotia

[Haliguy]

Originally Posted by NewIreland

Exactly! HRM boundaries are huge... CMA boundaries are massive! Saint John's population is only 130k but if the CMA was as big as Halifax's it would be 425k

Nope, Saint John would still only have 130 k

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Haliguy

Nope, Saint John would still only have 130 k

To make the Saint John CMA like the Halifax CMA:

- Add thousands of square km of wilderness northwest of town to the CMA
- Population goes up by 5,000
- Watch people in Fredericton argue that Saint John has a fake inflated metro population and is in fact the smaller city

[someone123]

I am curious about how much the reputation of NS and its self image are changing.

When I lived there it had a rural reputation and apparent self image. Often the issues of the day would focus on small towns around the province, sometimes to an absurd degree, and people seemed allergic to admitting that the central part of the province is focal in any way. I also got the impression a lot of people in NS viewed the city not as its own entity but in terms of how it served the rural areas (as a place to shop, a place for centralized services, etc., not a place with its own economic base). Often there would be implicit reasoning that something in Halifax was for but one part of NS.

There used to be a sentiment in Canada that most provinces are basically "urban" and ON/QC/BC are dominated by cities whereas Atlantic Canada is basically "rural". But increasingly NS demographics have the same proportions as other provinces outside of Atlantic Canada. About 2/3 live around the central part with soon 50% living in the main metro.

I also wonder if the 500,000 thing will have a kind of psychological impact. Some people still think of Halifax as a "small town". North America doesn't have a lot of independent smaller regional capitals. Europe has places like Basel, Tallinn, or Belfast. I think a lot of Canadians don't have a frame of reference for places like that. Winnipeg and Quebec City are also in the twilight zone, whereas Calgary and Edmonton have "big city" status.