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Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop
These data cuts are fantastic (where have I been?!) - huge thank you to Manitopiaaa for putting together. Absolutely fascinating to pour through them and draw broad conclusions and tease out some interesting more nuanced trends.
One of the broadest conclusions I'd make is exactly what that The Hill piece that M II A II R II K posted is getting at, but I'll go further: Republicans aren't even trying to be a majority winning party in national elections. In fact, as disastrous as Trumpism was electorally (again on a national election basis - clearly congressional and state/local elections can certainly be a different story), instead of trying to reorient themselves to once again be competitive in a national election (which would involve major changes in policy platform - first even having a platform! - appealing to a much wider constituency than their non-college educated white core, etc), they are actually doubling down with white nationalistic grievance, the right wing media/social media ecosphere (including governance and politics by alt right meme), conspiracist nuttery..........after Trump has ignominously left office! This is such incredible political history that we're living through - it's both endlessly fascinating and horrifying at the same time.
Just look at the data. The ongoing shift from R to D in the fast-growing suburbs of the nation's largest metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, etc) is only going to accelerate unless R's unexpectedly reverse course in dramatic fashion. Can't see that happening, as they've apparently made the decision that they are going to continue with white grievance/anti-democracy/conspiracist nuttery politics even post-Trump in the hopes that they'll be able to continue to turn out enough lower-propensity, rural/small town/smaller metro white, non-college educated voters to be competitive in congressional and state and local elections.
Just wow.
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We'll see how it works out, but it seems like they've still made gains in a decent number of places so that it might not be totally hopeless for them. It will certainly lead to a messy next decade, but it's not entirely clear that it will be a losing strategy for the Republicans.
Trump did a pretty good job of fucking himself over in the last year, which put him on the defensive.
The question though is how much Biden-Harris will be on the defensive going forward? How long will it take for the pandemic situation to improve under their leadership? How long will it take for the economy to recover? If the recovery can happen by 2022, and they can get one of two key policy wins on something that a large number of Americans would support, then they'll be in a really good spot going forward. But if not, I think it could be difficult. I think McConnell will make it as difficult as possible for the Democrats to score any wins.
Trump managed to energize people against him, but will that negative energy be as elevated a few years from now? GA, AZ and WI were only won by 10-20k votes and half a percentage point. If Republicans win those back and hold onto TX, FL and NC that's 270 for them.
I think you're also over-estimating the suburban gains because a lot of the suburban counties are still Republican.
For example, Montgomery County, TX, home to Conroe and The Woodlands north of Houston, with a population of over 600,000 and rapid population growth. It shifted 6.9 points Democrat. You're probably thinking that's really good news for Democrats, a large rapidly growing suburban county shifting significantly to the left. But what does that actually look like?
2016
R: 150,314 (73.5%)
D: 45,835 (22.4%)
Libertarian: 6,142 (3.0%)
51.1 point lead for Republicans
104,479 vote lead for Republicans
2020
R: 193,382 (71.2%)
D: 74,377 (27.4%)
43.8 point lead for Republicans
119,005 vote lead for Republicans
So in what might seem contradictory at first, Democrats significantly reduced the percentage point gap, while Republicans were still able to increase their vote lead, which is what actually matters in terms of who wins the state's electoral college points.
I call this the "Gastonia effect" because the same thing happened in Gaston County, NC (I could call it the Montgomery effect if it weren't for the fact that there's another heavily populated Montgomery County in MD). The overall balance of votes in Houston's suburban counties actually shifted Republican due to this effect.
Trump also made major gains in Hispanic majority areas, most notably South Florida, the Rio Grande Valley and the Bronx. He also made surprising gains in Queens, Philadelphia, Santa Cruz County AZ (Nogales) and Imperial County CA. For example, Trump gained more votes in Philadelphia than any other county in Pennsylvania.
But just like we have to ask whether those that voted Biden-Harris will be as negatively energized against Trumpism in future elections, we also have to ask whether Trump's 2020 voters will be as energized in future elections now that Trump has been further disgraced by the Capitol Riots (and may not be able to run in 2024?).