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  #1381  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 6:02 PM
arkitect13 arkitect13 is offline
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Just making sure, houses are selling for below market prices correct? If so could that technically allow a larger jump in the cities population ( if people were to jump on the cheaper prices currently) maybe even a population boom?
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  #1382  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 6:05 PM
City Wide City Wide is offline
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I am just curious ladies and gents; even with this Pandemic which is a pain; there are a lot of projects still being built and a lot of work that is still being done construction wise; does anyone know what projects are still on course; what projects aren't; and what is being built?
The only project slowdown that has been talked about openly is the UC Science Center building that was just starting to work on site prep. They are talking about a 'rethink'. This is sortof surprising considering most Science Center projects are leased up very quickly after they finish construction.

I'm sure any projects that haven't started yet are being looked at. Many people are reading the teas leaf's to predict the future. I still keep hoping for a small Comcast III on the same block as #1. You know, a nice simple 30 story hut for all the top brass to hang out in.
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  #1383  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 6:26 PM
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Originally Posted by City Wide View Post
The only project slowdown that has been talked about openly is the UC Science Center building that was just starting to work on site prep. They are talking about a 'rethink'.
It's important to note that particular project was being built on spec, meaning they didn't have any tenants ahead of construction.
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  #1384  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 6:40 PM
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Originally Posted by ScreamShatter View Post
For what it’s worth, I’ve seen many houses selling in Fishtown area for $30k to $80k below the list. But they are selling....for now.
Are you a realtor that you have access to confidential sale price data? I ask because usually it takes 6 weeks to close if there's a mortgage and then the sale price takes a few weeks after that before it's made public through the county. So if you are evaluating sale prices, wouldn't they be from at least two months old?

(I'm not a realtor so if I'm incorrect in my understanding of the process, I'd be happy to be "schooled".)
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  #1385  
Old Posted May 27, 2020, 11:12 PM
ScreamShatter ScreamShatter is offline
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Originally Posted by PHL10 View Post
Are you a realtor that you have access to confidential sale price data? I ask because usually it takes 6 weeks to close if there's a mortgage and then the sale price takes a few weeks after that before it's made public through the county. So if you are evaluating sale prices, wouldn't they be from at least two months old?

(I'm not a realtor so if I'm incorrect in my understanding of the process, I'd be happy to be "schooled".)
Asked my friend who the buying and selling agent on some of the properties, and got the answer. I had been looking at a few places so was curious what the final price was.

Not sure if that’s citywide trend. Just an observation I had. What are you seeing?
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  #1386  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by ScreamShatter View Post
Asked my friend who the buying and selling agent on some of the properties, and got the answer. I had been looking at a few places so was curious what the final price was.

Not sure if that’s citywide trend. Just an observation I had. What are you seeing?
Oh, I'm not seeing anything (I'm not in the industry) but was just curious about your comments. Makes sense though, thanks for the additional info.
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  #1387  
Old Posted May 28, 2020, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by arkitect13 View Post
Just making sure, houses are selling for below market prices correct? If so could that technically allow a larger jump in the cities population ( if people were to jump on the cheaper prices currently) maybe even a population boom?
The latest population boom was probably pushed by Philadelphia's mix of housing stock. Everything from cheap apartments to pricy new construction was attracting new residents without pricing too many existing ones out.

But even without a pandemic, population growth would eventually begin to plateau as new development and higher prices push their way into once-cheap neighborhoods, and those residents can no longer afford anything within the city limits.

Still, Philadelphia has a very large geographic footprint and sits on a lot of abandonment, so that could take awhile so long as people are willing to spend $350K+ on new construction in neighborhoods that haven't yet been redeveloped.

Considering the cost of construction in Philadelphia, future growth would depend on new residents' willingness to spend quite a bit on new homes.
That would require local job growth and an increased willingness to allow telecommuting in more competitive job markets.

In the latter's case, I know a handful of people who've left the city altogether for rural regions where real estate is bind-blowingly cheap. Aside from the truly wealthy, remote workers might find a higher quality of life in smaller cities upstate.

One friend just bought a huge house in Scranton for less than $100K and he can easily get to Philadelphia once or twice a week for in-person meetings. Another is doing the same from a small farm in the Poconos to New York.

Some might just not like that, but I'm willing to guess there are a sizable number who who will reconsider the dream of city living if it means owning in Southwest or far North Philly. It's certainly crossed my mind. In fact, now that I'm past the threshold of ever owning the kind of property I would have wanted in Philadelphia, leaving is less a question of if than when.

But for the time being, retail and service employees can still afford to rent in Center City, and I'm sure there's a stockpile of buyers ready to jump on any below-market homes. So we'll probably see steady bumps in the population for a while.
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  #1388  
Old Posted May 29, 2020, 2:03 AM
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Originally Posted by PHL10 View Post
Oh, I'm not seeing anything (I'm not in the industry) but was just curious about your comments. Makes sense though, thanks for the additional info.
I'm signed up for redfin listing updates for neighborhoods I look at, and I'm getting a lot of price drops from the original price. This wasn't happening as much before the pandemic. Which means to me, we were def in a bubble. These prices are more realistic.
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  #1389  
Old Posted May 29, 2020, 3:54 AM
JohnIII JohnIII is offline
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Originally Posted by City Wide View Post
The only project slowdown that has been talked about openly is the UC Science Center building that was just starting to work on site prep. They are talking about a 'rethink'. This is sortof surprising considering most Science Center projects are leased up very quickly after they finish construction.

I'm sure any projects that haven't started yet are being looked at. Many people are reading the teas leaf's to predict the future. I still keep hoping for a small Comcast III on the same block as #1. You know, a nice simple 30 story hut for all the top brass to hang out in.

Wow, thanks; so things still look good then.

As for Comcast III; it would be nice if we see that happen but I think I'd expect Schuylkill Yards to start building skyscrapers first. I haven't heard much about Comcast III in a while.
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  #1390  
Old Posted May 29, 2020, 7:52 PM
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Originally Posted by JohnIII View Post
Wow, thanks; so things still look good then.

As for Comcast III; it would be nice if we see that happen but I think I'd expect Schuylkill Yards to start building skyscrapers first. I haven't heard much about Comcast III in a while.
I've heard some stuff about Comcast 3. Direct quotes from a worker, "Correct. It’s going to be where that school and parking lot currently are, right across from the rite aid. Grapevine says only like 30 floors though." "Possible catwalk across, which would be neat." "Haha, told ya so. My intel says the third Comcast tower will only be around 30 floors.. unless it’s like, insanely tall floors throughout, it’ll top out around 300-400’." "Catwalk would tie into the second one." And for the next tallest in the city "I’d wait for the Yards to happen if you’re looking for the next tallest, IMO."
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  #1391  
Old Posted May 29, 2020, 8:12 PM
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I've heard some stuff about Comcast 3. Direct quotes from a worker, "Correct. It’s going to be where that school and parking lot currently are, right across from the rite aid. Grapevine says only like 30 floors though." "Possible catwalk across, which would be neat." "Haha, told ya so. My intel says the third Comcast tower will only be around 30 floors.. unless it’s like, insanely tall floors throughout, it’ll top out around 300-400’." "Catwalk would tie into the second one." And for the next tallest in the city "I’d wait for the Yards to happen if you’re looking for the next tallest, IMO."
Any word in timing?
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  #1392  
Old Posted May 29, 2020, 8:43 PM
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iheartphilly iheartphilly is offline
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Comcast can pay more rent for another new bldg they can call their own and a developer can get this finance with cheap money under the current circumstance. They should get this project started ASAP and lock in some cheap interest rates on the construction loans.

Last edited by iheartphilly; May 29, 2020 at 11:08 PM.
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  #1393  
Old Posted May 30, 2020, 1:09 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by Radio5 View Post
I'm signed up for redfin listing updates for neighborhoods I look at, and I'm getting a lot of price drops from the original price. This wasn't happening as much before the pandemic. Which means to me, we were def in a bubble. These prices are more realistic.
Out in the western burbs where my parent's live listings are at an all time low and houses are still selling in days at or above asking, with few exceptions. I read a statistic on redfin that the average home in their zipcode has 5 offers and the market temperature for it and a neighboring zipcode are "VERY HOT".

Granted, they live in one of the few suburbs where the schools are decent but starter homes aren't $500K with $15K taxes, so the submarket if you will, fills a niche in that area.
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  #1394  
Old Posted May 30, 2020, 3:56 PM
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summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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Originally Posted by TK2001 View Post
I've heard some stuff about Comcast 3. Direct quotes from a worker, "Correct. It’s going to be where that school and parking lot currently are, right across from the rite aid. Grapevine says only like 30 floors though." "Possible catwalk across, which would be neat." "Haha, told ya so. My intel says the third Comcast tower will only be around 30 floors.. unless it’s like, insanely tall floors throughout, it’ll top out around 300-400’." "Catwalk would tie into the second one." And for the next tallest in the city "I’d wait for the Yards to happen if you’re looking for the next tallest, IMO."
30 floors on an office building would probably be about 500 feet tall actually!
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  #1395  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2020, 3:21 PM
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summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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Hope everyone is safe out there!

So sad to see our city being destroyed right before our eyes. A lot of businesses were already struggling in the city due to COVID-19 and this is going to make things worse for them.

This has been a BAD turn of events for cities across this country the past couple of days.

Regardless of how you feel, let's have a civil conversation as urban advocates and city lovers about how this is likely going to lead towards a negative trajectory for US cities the next couple of years - right when Philly was FINALLY starting to hit it's stride.
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  #1396  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2020, 3:52 PM
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2020 Events

On a positive note, our city and all cities have proven resilient over time. At some point in the future, this will be an ugly memory and Philadelphia will forge onward. I remain optimistic for Philadelphia's future. Also, I am very relieved that this weekend did not become a large loss-of-life event.

But this has been a painful, heartbreaking chapter to a terrible year. It is the second blow in a massive 1-2 punch to retail and restaurants. Immediate concerns: (1) this is going to set the city back further in terms of the recovery of tax revenue. The city's finances are going to be even more severely stressed. (2) Related to the first point, it will further delay people returning to the offices in Center City and the wage taxes that come from that. (3) If we don't have law and order, we will see no new office demand and commercial real estate investment. (4) If we don't have law and order, the relative attractiveness to living in the city declines (to put it kindly). (5) Food and retail deserts had been receding, but that will reverse.
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  #1397  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2020, 4:13 PM
christof christof is offline
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The damage done in Philadelphia has been extensive and it will take time to recover. It is, however, not to a point of permanent damage. The threshold for that is if the looting turns into full arson, and hundreds of building throughout Phila are destroyed.

Fortunately, I don't think we will see the worse case scenario occurring.


Quote:
Originally Posted by summersm343 View Post
Hope everyone is safe out there!

So sad to see our city being destroyed right before our eyes. A lot of businesses were already struggling in the city due to COVID-19 and this is going to make things worse for them.

This has been a BAD turn of events for cities across this country the past couple of days.

Regardless of how you feel, let's have a civil conversation as urban advocates and city lovers about how this is likely going to lead towards a negative trajectory for US cities the next couple of years - right when Philly was FINALLY starting to hit it's stride.
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  #1398  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2020, 5:30 PM
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It's far too early to tell whether this will set us on an a post 60s trajectory of city centers being abandoned by those with means. It's not too early to fervently pray that it does not happen as a result of hijacked or derailed protests. The poor would only get poorer (and the marginalized further marginalized) as a result, perpetuating and deepening the injustices that we all decry. They have nowhere to go and are left with the city as it is (or becomes).
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  #1399  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2020, 6:48 PM
allovertown allovertown is offline
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Originally Posted by summersm343 View Post
Regardless of how you feel, let's have a civil conversation as urban advocates and city lovers about how this is likely going to lead towards a negative trajectory for US cities the next couple of years - right when Philly was FINALLY starting to hit it's stride.
Regardless of how you feel, let's talk about why these protests are a negative? Really? This is your attempt at starting a civil conversation?

How about this, I don't think the protests are a negative. To me the negative is the systematic racism that black people in this country face. To me the negative is the out of control militarized police forces in this country that can't even refrain from committing disgusting acts of police brutality when they're policing protests that are all about police brutality.

Seeing that people are fed up with this bullshit, is to me a positive. If this is the collateral damage that needs to be endured to finally bring justice to black communities, then so be it. Could not care any fucking less if a fight for human rights scares white people away from moving downtown.

Edit: Toned this down a bit. I'll simply say, that while I do think summers post was tone deaf, probably took this a tad too far. Appreciative of the many thoughtful posts here, especially city wide.

Last edited by allovertown; Jun 2, 2020 at 2:06 AM.
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  #1400  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2020, 7:51 PM
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