[Moncton] Shediac Developments

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

On Sainte-Anne St near the multipurpose centre

Great location near the core of the town and next to the trail system.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Looks identical to the apartment buildings currently under construction at 2265 Mountain Road in Moncton. I wonder if Spitfire just recycled the design.

It is amazing how density is building up so quickly in Shediac. I wonder how long it'll be before they apply for city status........

It would be surprising (and a bit ridiculous) for Shediac to achieve city status before Riverview which has nearly triple the population. Although if it came up, my guess would be that there wouldn't be the same reluctance in Shediac....

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

It would be surprising (and a bit ridiculous) for Shediac to achieve city status before Riverview which has nearly triple the population. Although if it came up, my guess would be that there wouldn't be the same reluctance in Shediac....

Indeed. Riverview has ulterior motives for remaining a town (and we all know what they are).

[Nashe]

I assume Shediac will be merged into the Moncton CMA first?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

I assume Shediac will be merged into the Moncton CMA first?

Doesn't prevent it from becoming a city. It would prevent Shediac from becoming it's own CMA however.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

I assume Shediac will be merged into the Moncton CMA first?

Coming Soon™ since 2010.

Shediac can be a city within Moncton's CMA as Dieppe is.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Coming Soon™ since 2010.

Shediac can be a city within Moncton's CMA as Dieppe is.

Do we know the numbers as of today, as to how much traffic is in between Moncton and Shediac for commuting purposes?

I forget the percentage of population that needs to commute to and from so that an area gets pulled in. What is Shediac's at now? Anyone know?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Do we know the numbers as of today, as to how much traffic is in between Moncton and Shediac for commuting purposes?

I forget the percentage of population that needs to commute to and from so that an area gets pulled in. What is Shediac's at now? Anyone know?

A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) can have more than one core. The core of a CMA must have a population of at least 50,000 and the core of a CA must have a population of at least 10,000. In all other cases where a CMA or a CA has more than one core, the additional cores are called secondary cores. When a CA is merged with a CMA, the core of the former CA also becomes a secondary core of the CMA. If the population of a fringe population centre exceeds 10,000, it becomes a secondary core of the CMA or CA in which it exists. See Merging adjacent CMAs and CAs (delineation rule 7).

2. Forward commuting flow rule: Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 50% of the employed labour force living in the CSD works in the delineation core (see following note), as determined from commuting data based on the place of work question in the previous census.



Or

7. Merging adjacentCMAs and CAs: A CA adjacent to a CMA can be merged with the CMA if the total percentage commuting interchange between the CA and CMA is equal to at least 35% of the employed labour force living in the CA, based on place of work data from the previous census. The total percentage commuting interchange is the sum of the commuting flow in both directions between the CMA and the CA as a percentage of the labour force living in the CA (i.e., resident employed labour force).



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...mr/def-eng.htm

Under rule 2, Shediac only lands at 28% of the required 50%, found in the table below. If you include both Riverview and Dieppe as the core then you're looking at roughly 40%:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...NAMEE=&VNAMEF=

Shediac is getting close to becoming classified as a census agglomeration (CA) but has not been classified for 2021, meaning the earliest it would be classified is 2026. That brings the commuting requirement down to 35% including both directions, which is attainable. I'm not sure what the census cycle requirement is but theoretically if Shediac is a CA in 2026 and the Rule 7 commuting flow for CA into CMA is met then it's possible for Shediac to be included in the 2031 census for Moncton's CMA. They may need to wait a cycle between, though, so 2036 may be a safer bet.

I can't remember if Riverview and Dieppe are counted along with Moncton as the CMA core, though, as mentioned above, but either way Shediac probably misses out on being included into Moncton's CMA under rule 2 for 2026 by just a hair? We'll see how 2021 commuting shakes out. It's easier for Shediac to be included into Moncton's CMA as a CA, but that won't occur until 2026 at the earliest.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I can't remember if Riverview and Dieppe are counted along with Moncton as the CMA core, though, as mentioned above, but either way Shediac probably misses out on being included into Moncton's CMA under rule 2 for 2026 by just a hair? We'll see how 2021 commuting shakes out.

Based on the first graphic you posted, the CMA Core seems to be defined as the population centre. The CMA population centre for Moncton does indeed include most of Dieppe and Riverview.... so maybe we're close?

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's easier for Shediac to be included into Moncton's CMA as a CA, but that won't occur until 2026 at the earliest.

The commuter threshold is lower in this scenario but I assume it would then apply to the entirety of the new CA territory which would likely include Beaubassin, Cap Pele and other communities further afield from the CMA core and therefore may have lower commuter numbers.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Shediac is getting close to becoming classified as a census agglomeration (CA) but has not been classified for 2021, meaning the earliest it would be classified is 2026. That brings the commuting requirement down to 35% including both directions, which is attainable.

I believe though, that in order to be a CA you need a population of at least 10,000. Shediac's population is 6,664 as the 2016 census and has a growth rate of 10.1%. At that growth rate they would be a CA in about 25 years roughly. So I think that the 50% mark is probably what we are going to have to go with.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...Begins&TABID=1

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

I believe though, that in order to be a CA you need a population of at least 10,000. Shediac's population is 6,664 as the 2016 census and has a growth rate of 10.1%. At that growth rate they would be a CA in about 25 years roughly. So I think that the 50% mark is probably what we are going to have to go with.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...Begins&TABID=1

But Shediac, Shediac Bridge, Beaubassin and Cap Pele combined (the area of the CA) would likely be close to the required minimum population.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

The commuter threshold is lower in this scenario but I assume it would then apply to the entirety of the new CA territory which would likely include Beaubassin, Cap Pele and other communities further afield from the CMA core and therefore may have lower commuter numbers.

Correct. A new CA would theoretically be using these areas, so that would reset Shediac's commuter flow into Moncton.

The breakdown for these areas for 2016 is as follows
Shediac (Town) 6,664
Shediac (Parish) 4,789
Beaubassin-Est (RCR) 6,376
Cap-Pele (Village) 2,425

But i'm not sure what the rules are for being included or not into the CA. A few of these new builds in Shediac won't be captured in the 2021 Census, so 2026 should be a good growth window for the town.

Originally Posted by MonctonSentinel01

I believe though, that in order to be a CA you need a population of at least 10,000. Shediac's population is 6,664 as the 2016 census and has a growth rate of 10.1%. At that growth rate they would be a CA in about 25 years roughly. So I think that the 50% mark is probably what we are going to have to go with.

Correct. Something fun: Beaubassin has a higher commuter rate into Moncton (City) at 29% and an equivalent commuter rate into Moncton's population centre (M-R-D) at 40% compared to Shediac. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Cap-Pele commuters overwhelmingly stay in Cap-Pele.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But Shediac, Shediac Bridge, Beaubassin and Cap Pele combined (the area of the CA) would likely be close to the required minimum population.

Can Shediac force that agglomeration around it's area? Or does it need those areas to "bend the knee" in friendly cooperation? As in a "what's in it for me" type of scenario?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Can Shediac force that agglomeration around it's area? Or does it need those areas to "bend the knee" in friendly cooperation? As in a "what's in it for me" type of scenario?

CA areas are determined in the same way that CMA areas are determined - usually either by core population or by commuting patterns.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Can Shediac force that agglomeration around it's area? Or does it need those areas to "bend the knee" in friendly cooperation? As in a "what's in it for me" type of scenario?

A CA is a statistical construct. It is up to StatsCan to decide whether the communities surrounding Shediac should be combined for statistical purposes into a CA. As JHikka pointed out, Shediac is getting close to the point where it meets CA criteria - perhaps by 2026.

As for full amalgamation, the individual communities could agree that they should form a new regional government structure, or the province could force an amalgamation to cut costs, and improve the efficiency of providing local government services. There is a general agreement that there are too many local governments in NB, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the province might force amalgamation.

Shediac itself cannot force amalgamation, but it could request the province to look into the idea.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

As for full amalgamation, the individual communities could agree that they should form a new regional government structure, or the province could force an amalgamation to cut costs, and improve the efficiency of providing local government services. There is a general agreement that there are too many local governments in NB, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the province might force amalgamation.

The province is currently working on municipal reform. I wouldn't be surprised to see them move towards amalgamation of these communities, forced or incentivized. The hard part, however, is countering some strong opposition by some residents, especially in more rural areas and LSDs. Tracadie underwent amalgamation about a decade ago and now there's a strong movement for de-amalgamation mainly coming from the surrounding hinterlands. I can't see the province allowing this to happen, especially now that they are trying to apply this model to the rest of the province. And yes, NB has far too many local governments.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

The province is currently working on municipal reform. I wouldn't be surprised to see them move towards amalgamation of these communities, forced or incentivized. The hard part, however, is countering some strong opposition by some residents, especially in more rural areas and LSDs. Tracadie underwent amalgamation about a decade ago and now there's a strong movement for de-amalgamation mainly coming from the surrounding hinterlands. I can't see the province allowing this to happen, especially now that they are trying to apply this model to the rest of the province. And yes, NB has far too many local governments.

Tracadie is not going to get to split up if the government is consolidating municipalities. I hope they opt for an NS model without the geographically large RMs. Towns/cities/county government for the remainder, let villages become towns, disincorporate, or amalgamate with existing cities or towns. Incorporate now or forever hold your peace!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Saint Louis Bar & Grill coming soon to 355 Main Street in Shediac (third location in southeast NB).

There was a fire in this location yesterday. The T&T is reporting the damage is internal and "moderate", but the owners of the new St. Louis restaurant say that the incident will delay opening of the restaurant into 2022.

[Dave Belliveau]

Presumably Shediac will be the winner and annex PDC, which will be great for Shediac (ie beach and wharf). However, will shediac have to provide equal services for PDC (ie water). It’s a small area and sooner or later, wells be get contaminated and people sick. Sort of crazy to have people on wells when municipal water and a huge new tower are so close. Any insight as to the expected outcome.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dave Belliveau

Presumably Shediac will be the winner and annex PDC, which will be great for Shediac (ie beach and wharf). However, will shediac have to provide equal services for PDC (ie water). It’s a small area and sooner or later, wells be get contaminated and people sick. Sort of crazy to have people on wells when municipal water and a huge new tower are so close. Any insight as to the expected outcome.

Welcome to the forums.

I have heard in the past that Shediac really isn't interested in annexing Pointe-de-Chene. The reason for this is because the cost of upgrading the infrastructure in the community (including roads, water and sewer) would outweigh any increase in the assessment value to the town.

Shediac might have no choice however if the province steps in and creates a new regional municipal government structure.

[riverviewer]

The fourth floor is being added to the Breaux Bridge Estates building on the Chelsey turning circle in Shediac.