The U.S. Cities Where Airlines See the Most Growth

[Pedestrian]

By Scott McCartney
April 28, 2021 8:56 am ET

As carriers rebuild networks, they’re eyeing new cities where they can build large, hub-type operations to capture the loyalty and wallets of the local market. While New York and Los Angeles remain competitive airline cities, lots of planes are now pointed toward fast-growing economies where one airline doesn’t yet dominate—places like Austin, Texas, Boston and North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham region.

Already, the June schedule shows Austin with almost as many airline seats as were offered in June 2019, according to Cirium, an aviation data company. Total seat counts for the four largest airlines will still be down 17% compared with two years ago. Delta is trying to build a small hub in Austin, calling it one of its “focus cities,” while American and Southwest are responding with a wave of their own flights.

American, which has its largest hub just up the road at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, flew to eight cities from Austin in June 2019—mostly just its hubs. This June, American will offer nonstops to 18 cities.

And American is far from alone circling Austin:

* Alaska will have 60% more seats there in June than it did in June 2019.

* Southwest will serve 37 cities, up from 33.

* Hawaiian just started nonstops from Honolulu.

* Delta, which added nine gates and a Sky Club in Austin just before the pandemic, is up 3% in flights for June compared with June 2019, even though the airline is down 23% in flights overall, according to Cirium . . . .

One clear strategy so far: Carriers are quickly adjusting to the demand for leisure destinations and not bothering yet with restoring hourly service to traditional business-travel markets.

Only a few cities are large enough to fill lots of flights on multiple airlines. Five carriers—American, Delta, United, Southwest and Alaska—have large hub operations in Los Angeles. New York and Chicago sustain multiple hubs. For others—think Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Detroit, Miami—competition is more limited, usually with one dominant airline, a good-sized Southwest operation nearby and maybe an ultra-low-cost option like Spirit or Frontier. Other airlines serve those cities, but typically only to their own hubs.

Pre-pandemic, Delta had an aggressive hub-expansion strategy, building big operations in Seattle and Boston and identifying San Jose, Calif., Austin, Raleigh, Nashville and Cincinnati as focus cities. In March, Delta said it was dropping San Jose, Nashville and Cincinnati from its list to concentrate on Austin, Raleigh and Boston . . . .

Raleigh-Durham was once an American hub, but that ended in 1995. American now has a hub acquired from US Airways in nearby Charlotte. Delta has the world’s largest hub not far away in Atlanta. Both might be tempted to just want to funnel all of the RDU traffic through hubs. But the growth of the local economy has made RDU an attractive market for nonstop flights.

In June, JetBlue will fly to 10 cities from RDU, up from three in June 2019. JetBlue will have 53% more seats in June than two years earlier, according to schedules compiled by Cirium on Monday. Delta was gobbling up market-share before the pandemic, says Michael Landguth, CEO of the Raleigh-Durham Airport Authority, but now there’s been a reset. American and others are adding flights . . . .

In Boston, Delta says its rebuilding will start in the second half of this year. American has already expanded to 22 destinations served, up from 14 in June 2019. American is entering into a partnership with JetBlue where they’ll sell tickets on some of each other’s flights and connect passengers in New York and Boston, setting up a major showdown there.

“Even pre-pandemic, we were one of the most competitive markets,” says Ed Freni, aviation director for the Massachusetts Port Authority, which operates Boston’s Logan International Airport.

In addition to the American/JetBlue vs. Delta prize fight, Mr. Freni notes that United has been adding flights in Boston, flying to Florida nonstop from Boston for the first time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/airport...=hp_lead_pos11

[iheartthed]

Next to Boston, Austin is the busiest airport I've seen in the U.S. that does not have a major airline as its hub (eta: maybe Orlando?). It makes sense for Delta to go after it aggressively, since American has DFW and United has IAH.

I'm not sure RDU is a big enough airport to handle a major hub, though. The airport terminal is relatively tiny compared to an ATL/DFW/DTW/etc, and it would need to adopt the ATL/CLT model in order for it to make sense as a major hub.

[dave8721]

Austin's airport always strikes me with how small it is whenever I go there. As the City continues to grow at a break-neck pace, are there any plans to expand the airport/add new terminals?

[202_Cyclist]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Next to Boston, Austin is the busiest airport I've seen in the U.S. that does not have a major airline as its hub (eta: maybe Orlando?). It makes sense for Delta to go after it aggressively, since American has DFW and United has IAH.

I'm not sure RDU is a big enough airport to handle a major hub, though. The airport terminal is relatively tiny compared to an ATL/DFW/DTW/etc, and it would need to adopt the ATL/CLT model in order for it to make sense as a major hub.

SAN, TPA, LAS, and MCO aren’t hubs and all had more passengers than Austin.

BOS is a focus city for JetBlue and Delta has a significant presence there.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist

SAN, TPA, LAS, and MCO aren’t hubs and all had more passengers than Austin.

BOS is a focus city for JetBlue and Delta has a significant presence there.

Yeah I feel like JetBlue flew most interesting places from BOS. BOS is never going to be a hub though (well.. it's THE HUB but not in that way), it just doesn't make sense to connect there except to niche places like Provincetown, and it's a terrible setup for switching between the domestic and international terminals for European flights.

[Manitopiaaa]

They need to come to the Washington-Baltimore area. 10 million people and our international flight offerings compared to Chicago, San Francisco and Toronto are terrible.

North America

1. Aruba
2. Barbados
3. Cancun
4. Mexico City
5. Montego Bay
6. Montreal
7. Nassau
8. Ottawa
9. Panama City
10. Punta Cana
11. San Jose
12. San Salvador
13. Santo Domingo
14. Toronto

South America

1. Bogota
2. La Paz
3. Sao Paulo

Europe

1. Amsterdam
2. Brussels
3. Copenhagen
4. Dublin
5. Frankfurt
6. Geneva
7. Istanbul
8. Lisbon
9. London
10. Madrid
11. Munich
12. Paris
13. Reykjavik
14. Rome
15. Vienna
16. Warsaw
17. Zurich

Asia

1. Abu Dhabi
2. Beijing
3. Delhi
4. Doha
5. Dubai
6. Jeddah
7. Riyadh
8. Seoul
9. Tel Aviv
10. Tokyo

Africa

1. Accra
2. Addis Ababa
3. Cairo
4. Casablanca
5. Johannesburg

Australia
None!

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

They need to come to the Washington-Baltimore area. 10 million people and our international flight offerings compared to Chicago, San Francisco and Toronto are terrible.

North America

1. Aruba
2. Barbados
3. Cancun
4. Mexico City
5. Montego Bay
6. Montreal
7. Nassau
8. Ottawa
9. Panama City
10. Punta Cana
11. San Jose
12. San Salvador
13. Santo Domingo
14. Toronto

South America

1. Bogota
2. La Paz
3. Sao Paulo

Europe

1. Amsterdam
2. Brussels
3. Copenhagen
4. Dublin
5. Frankfurt
6. Geneva
7. Istanbul
8. Lisbon
9. London
10. Madrid
11. Munich
12. Paris
13. Reykjavik
14. Rome
15. Vienna
16. Warsaw
17. Zurich

Asia

1. Abu Dhabi
2. Beijing
3. Delhi
4. Doha
5. Dubai
6. Jeddah
7. Riyadh
8. Seoul
9. Tel Aviv
10. Tokyo

Africa

1. Accra
2. Addis Ababa
3. Cairo
4. Casablanca
5. Johannesburg

Australia
None!

You have three major airports in the area, so it's much harder to create a hub. I guess Baltimore-Washington is better located for it (although smaller), but it would have to grow at Dulles expense.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist

SAN, TPA, LAS, and MCO aren’t hubs and all had more passengers than Austin.

BOS is a focus city for JetBlue and Delta has a significant presence there.

Forgot about Vegas. Like Orlando, that was an obvious one. I'm surprised that Tampa is busier than Austin, tbh.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

Australia
None!

Nowhere in the U.S. east of Texas has a non-stop to Australia.

[202_Cyclist]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Forgot about Vegas. Like Orlando, that was an obvious one. I'm surprised that Tampa is busier than Austin, tbh.

PDX also had more passengers in 2019 than Austin and it isn't a hub. Who knows now, after continued growth at Austin and the changes in travel with coronavirus?

https://www.bts.gov/content/passenge...50-us-airports

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Nowhere in the U.S. east of Texas has a non-stop to Australia.

Qantas was set to launch Chicago to Brisbane non-stop last april, but then covid happened.

They may try to relaunch it once we're finally in the other side of covid.

We'll see. At over 17 hours, it was gonna be the world's 4th longest flight.

[Sigaven]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Austin's airport always strikes me with how small it is whenever I go there. As the City continues to grow at a break-neck pace, are there any plans to expand the airport/add new terminals?

Yes there are plans to expand/rebuild the existing main terminal and add a new terminal but I think COVID may have delayed that.

[BG918]

Kansas City makes the most sense for a new hub once the new airport is finished. I bet Southwest jumps all over that like they have done in STL.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

They need to come to the Washington-Baltimore area. 10 million people and our international flight offerings compared to Chicago, San Francisco and Toronto are terrible.

North America

1. Aruba
2. Barbados
3. Cancun
4. Mexico City
5. Montego Bay
6. Montreal
7. Nassau
8. Ottawa
9. Panama City
10. Punta Cana
11. San Jose
12. San Salvador
13. Santo Domingo
14. Toronto

South America

1. Bogota
2. La Paz
3. Sao Paulo

Europe

1. Amsterdam
2. Brussels
3. Copenhagen
4. Dublin
5. Frankfurt
6. Geneva
7. Istanbul
8. Lisbon
9. London
10. Madrid
11. Munich
12. Paris
13. Reykjavik
14. Rome
15. Vienna
16. Warsaw
17. Zurich

Asia

1. Abu Dhabi
2. Beijing
3. Delhi
4. Doha
5. Dubai
6. Jeddah
7. Riyadh
8. Seoul
9. Tel Aviv
10. Tokyo

Africa

1. Accra
2. Addis Ababa
3. Cairo
4. Casablanca
5. Johannesburg

Australia
None!

Well, the grass is always greener on the other side as I'm extremely jealous of your Sao Paulo and Johannesburg flights

SFO Nonstop International Flights.

Europe
Amsterdam
Barcelona
Copenhagen
Dublin
Frankfurt
Helsinki
Lisbon
London-Heathrow
Madrid
Munich
Paris-Charles De Gaulle
Paris-Orly
Rome-
Warsaw-Chopin
Zurich

Latin America
Cancun
Guadalajara
LIberia, Costa Rica
Mexico City
Panama City-Tocumen
Puerto Vallarta
San Jose del Cabo
San Salvador
*None* to South America

Canada
Calgary
Edmonton
Montreal-Trudeau
Toronto-Pearson
Vancouver

Asia
Bangalore
Beijing-Capital
Chengdu
Delhi
Doha
Dubai
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Istanbul
Kunming
Manila
Osaka-Kansai
Qingdao
Seoul-Incheon
Shanghai-Pudong
Singapore
Taipei-Taoyuan
Tel Aviv
Tokyo-Haneda
Tokyo-Narita
Wuhan

Australia/NZ/Oceania
Auckland
Brisbane
Melbourne
Nadi, Fiji
Papeete, Tahiti
Sydney

Oh, and SFO is on the cusp of getting nonstop flights to/from Vietnam(Saigon) so that's neat too.

[dimondpark]

I guess this is as good a place as anywhere to put this.

A few weeks ago I was reading Yuriandrade's post about citypopulation.de's urban agglomeration ranking so I decided to make a list of North American airports and their nonstop flights to the 10 largest urban agglomerations in the world and here are those findings:

Here are the 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations according to that site:
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Jakarta, Delhi
Manila, Mumbai, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

1. There is no nonstop north american flights to Jakarta or Mumbai. I thought there used to be flights between Mumbai and Newark or JFK but I couldnt find it.

2. I couldnt find any nonstop flights from Philadelphia or Boston to Mexico City, that would be the 2 biggest agglomeration pairings in North America with no direct service between them I think. Someone tell me if I goofed and there is service, please.

3. Five North American airports offer direct flights to the largest urban agglomeration in the world(Guangzhou), JFK, LAX, SFO, YYV and YYZ, keep in mind tho, Guangzhou is only like 80 miles to Hong Kong.

Anyhow,

New York(JFK): 8/10
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Delhi, Manila, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Toronto(YYZ): 8/10
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Delhi, Manila, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

San Francisco(SFO): 7/10
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Delhi, Manila, Seoul, Mexico City

Vancouver(YYV): 7/10
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Delhi, Manila, Seoul, Mexico City

Chicago(ORD): 6/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Delhi, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Los Angeles(LAX): 6/10
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Manila, Seoul, Mexico City

Newark(EWR): 6/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Delhi, Mumbai, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Dallas(DFW): 5/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Washington DC(IAD): 5/10
Tokyo, Delhi, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Atlanta(ATL): 4/10
Tokyo, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Boston(BOS): 4/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, Sao Paulo

Detroit(DTW): 4/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, Mexico City

Montreal(YUL): 4/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Seattle(SEA): 4/10
Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, Mexico City

Honolulu(HNL): 3/10
Tokyo, Manila, Seoul

Houston(IAH): 3/10
Tokyo, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Mexico City(MEX): 3/10
Tokyo, Seoul, Sao Paulo

Minneapolis(MSP): 3/10
Tokyo, Seoul, Mexico City

Denver(DEN): 2/10
Tokyo, Mexico City

Las Vegas(LAS): 2/10
Seoul, Mexico City

Miami(MIA): 2/10
Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Orlando(MCO):
Mexico City, Sao Paulo

Phoenix(PHX): 1/10
Mexico City

Philadelphia(PHL): 0/10

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I guess this is as good a place as anywhere to put this.

A few weeks ago I was reading Yuriandrade's post about citypopulation.de's urban agglomeration ranking so I decided to make a list of North American airports and their nonstop flights to the 10 largest urban agglomerations in the world and here are those findings:

Here are the 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations according to that site:
Guangzhou, Tokyo, Shanghai, Jakarta, Delhi
Manila, Mumbai, Seoul, Mexico City, Sao Paulo

1. There is no nonstop north american flights to Jakarta or Mumbai. I thought there used to be flights between Mumbai and Newark or JFK but I couldnt find it.

2. I couldnt find any nonstop flights from Philadelphia or Boston to Mexico City, that would be the 2 biggest agglomeration pairings in North America with no direct service between them I think. Someone tell me if I goofed and there is service, please.

3. Five North American airports offer direct flights to the largest urban agglomeration in the world(Guangzhou), JFK, LAX, SFO, YYV and YYZ, keep in mind tho, Guangzhou is only like 80 miles to Hong Kong.

Interesting. Detroit had service to São Paulo, but it was apparently ended in 2019.

I think 4 or 5 of these cities aren't really that important, though. Right now they're just big. Guangzhou, for instance, is arguably the third or fourth most important city in China. But these cities could become more important in the future.

[LouisianaRush]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

You have three major airports in the area, so it's much harder to create a hub. I guess Baltimore-Washington is better located for it (although smaller), but it would have to grow at Dulles expense.

BWI eclipsed Dulles as the busiest Baltimore-Washington Metro airport a few years ago, due to its location and Southwest hub. The problem with BWI, it is mostly services North America airports and only has a small intercontinental reach. If I want to fly outside of North America, I normally take the train to Newark. It is easier to take the train to NYC than to drive to Dulles.

[Yuri]

Dimond, before the pandemics, there was a non-stop São Paulo-Detroit. If I remember right, it was 3x week, Delta. Not sure if they'll resume it.

On the other hand, I didn't know about São Paulo-Montreal.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Interesting. Detroit had service to São Paulo, but it was apparently ended in 2019.

I think 4 or 5 of these cities aren't really that important, though. Right now they're just big. Guangzhou, for instance, is arguably the third or fourth most important city in China. But these cities could become more important in the future.

Guangzhou is more important within China than it is abroad, for sure, but it is the Capital of Guangdong, the largest province by population and GDP in the entire country-Shenzhen is like a short drive(like from Sac to SF) and Hong Kong is on the other side of Shenzhen.

We dont have Shenzhen flights out of SFO, I wonder if Seattle still does(Xiamen airlnes) and I think LA had flights but I cant remember.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Dimond, before the pandemics, there was a non-stop São Paulo-Detroit. If I remember right, it was 3x week, Delta. Not sure if they'll resume it.

On the other hand, I didn't know about São Paulo-Montreal.

Yeah, according to Wiki, Air Canada has flights between Montreal and Sampa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montr%...d_destinations