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  #81  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 3:21 AM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
If California loses a seat, it should extinguish Devin Nunes' district.

That would be sweet revenge.

Or better yet, Kevin McCarthy.

Spineless coward.
I'm waiting for some sort of supernatural dimensional vortex to open up and suck them both off the face of the earth... of course I was waiting for the same with trump and it never came... had to remove him at the voting booth.
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  #82  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 3:44 AM
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California has a non-partisan redistricting commission, so there will be no partisan play against Nunes or McCarthy.

The LA Times considers where the seat may be subtracted:

Quote:
California registered a population of 39.5 million, up 2 million from the last census. The state had more births than deaths and net migration from other countries, but within the United States, more people moved out of California than in.

The sluggish population growth resulted in the loss of a congressional seat, which redistricting analysts say could shake up Los Angeles County. The 25th Congressional District, which includes Simi Valley and Santa Clarita, could be drawn inland, giving the seat a more liberal makeup and imperiling the reelection of GOP Rep. Mike Garcia. But the redrawing of the boundaries could also reverberate in the Central Valley or Orange County, the once solidly GOP region that now is prime swing territory.
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  #83  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 3:58 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
The Mid-Atlantic region (NY-NJ-PA) were posting zero growth, and now it’s at very healthy 3,96%, faster than the past decade, and growing at 60% of overall growth (7,35%). That’s the best performance since the 1960’s compared to the national growth.

Another thing that occurred to me: NY CSA might have grown faster than LA CSA, based on numbers for CA and NY-NJ. That’s historical.
And at this point, not too surprising. Things out here move like a slug. The power and impact NIMBYs have in LA simply cannot be understated. After all there’s a reason why areas of the city that were once zoned for multi-family apartments are still stuck with one-two story houses and since downzoned to stay that way…

And the rezoning efforts out here have been an utter joke, not to mention the rail expansion, while impressive, is still only a drop in the bucket of what’s needed to bring. We need +500 miles of new rail (including HRT, LRT, Commuter etc.) as well as a restoration to RTD-era level bus service to support the vast rezoning needed to slow down this cost-of-living madness.
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  #84  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 5:48 AM
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Last edited by dimondpark; Apr 27, 2021 at 6:58 AM.
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  #85  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
I mean don't get me wrong, Texas' growth is cute and all and you grew by 4 million people but only gained 2 seats?(ugh)

I've been studying this data since I was in middle school and I can say with certainty that at this rate, Neither TX nor any other state in the 20M+ range will ever see this kind of growth ever again.

California 1980-1990
Population Growth: +6,092,257
Population Growth Rate: +25.74%
Change in Congressional Seats: +7
Holy crap. CA's 1980's growth was freaking incredible. Doubt that will ever come close to being matched.

It also illustrates that population growth, by itself, isn't necessarily transformational. CA had blistering growth, yet its metros in 1990 don't seem radically transformed from 1980, just a lot bigger/richer/sprawlier.
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  #86  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
I mean don't get me wrong, Texas' growth is cute and all and you grew by 4 million people but only gained 2 seats?(ugh)

I've been studying this data since I was in middle school and I can say with certainty that at this rate, Neither TX nor any other state in the 20M+ range will ever see this kind of growth ever again.

California 1980-1990
Population Growth: +6,092,257
Population Growth Rate: +25.74%
Change in Congressional Seats: +7
It was crazy. Los Angeles jumped from 11.5 million to 14.5 million, a 26.4% growth which is massive for a such big city. And considering the mid-2010's onwards, Los Angeles might be having zero growth. Things change fast.
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  #87  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:13 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
It was crazy. Los Angeles jumped from 11.5 million to 14.5 million, a 26.4% growth which is massive for a such big city. And considering the mid-2010's onwards, Los Angeles might be having zero growth. Things change fast.
Mexican immigration is a huge reason why metros like Los Angeles and Chicago had big growth in the 70s-90s. Thats dried up now.
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  #88  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:21 PM
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The 2020 Census results are really, really weird, and suggest the Census fucked up the American Community Survey really badly this decade.

Some people initially suggested that the issue was related to Trump's politicizing of the Census - that Latinos were under-counted in states like TX, FL, and AZ. This seems plausible, though it doesn't explain how New York managed to find 864,000 more people than was modeled. Even good census outreach by the state doesn't explain it, unless you claim all these people were unrecorded in 2010.

It seems like the ACS just modeled the number of people leaving the Northeast/Midwest for the Sun Belt as way, way too high. Interestingly, this almost certainly means that the "decline of cities" that people were suggesting based on ACS data - that big cities in the Northeast/West Coast started to decline in population once Trump effectively ended immigration and birth rates continued to plummet - none of that ever happened.
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  #89  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post
Mexican immigration is a huge reason why metros like Los Angeles and Chicago had big growth in the 70s-90s. Thats dried up now.
The entire country and world is drying up. Our population will peak mid century and then start to decline.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ry/5434571002/
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  #90  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:43 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
The entire country and world is drying up. Our population will peak mid century and then start to decline.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ry/5434571002/
Only if we choose to. The U.S. can grow as fast as it wants, via immigration.
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  #91  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:48 PM
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Glad to see Hawaii continues to gain in population as the estimates were wrong again by underestimating Hawaii's population growth in the past two censuses albeit by a statistically significant margin.
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  #92  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:54 PM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
It seems like the ACS just modeled the number of people leaving the Northeast/Midwest for the Sun Belt as way, way too high.
Yes, that.

But also, on the macro-level, the CB underestimated the nation as a whole by roughly 2M people, regardless of where people may or may not have been moving around within it.

I mean, that's like the size of metro indianapolis. The CB essentially missed accounting for the equivalent of a decently sized metro area.

So not only were their models of internal migration pretty wrong, they also were using some combination of bad assumptions about births/deaths and immigration, legal or otherwise, for the nation at large.

As I said earlier, swing and a miss by the CB.
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  #93  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:55 PM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
It seems like the ACS just modeled the number of people leaving the Northeast/Midwest for the Sun Belt as way, way too high. Interestingly, this almost certainly means that the "decline of cities" that people were suggesting based on ACS data - that big cities in the Northeast/West Coast started to decline in population once Trump effectively ended immigration and birth rates continued to plummet - none of that ever happened.
The annual estimates are absolutely politicized and not just by the the previous POTUS. He just took it to an extreme, absurd level.

A real world example - there's a national imputation for number of residents per public housing unit, adjusted for unit size. Something like 40% of the public housing units in the U.S. are in NYC. It's well-known that there are a lot of "off the books" public housing residents (boyfriends, aunts, etc.) and illegal sublets and rented rooms.

How do you count these hidden residents? This (very political) decision alone probably accounts for a 100k+ swing in NYC population. But with an enumerated count, you at least have a shot at semi-ballpark accuracy.
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  #94  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 1:58 PM
Ant131531 Ant131531 is online now
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The 2020 Census results are really, really weird, and suggest the Census fucked up the American Community Survey really badly this decade.

Some people initially suggested that the issue was related to Trump's politicizing of the Census - that Latinos were under-counted in states like TX, FL, and AZ. This seems plausible, though it doesn't explain how New York managed to find 864,000 more people than was modeled. Even good census outreach by the state doesn't explain it, unless you claim all these people were unrecorded in 2010.

It seems like the ACS just modeled the number of people leaving the Northeast/Midwest for the Sun Belt as way, way too high. Interestingly, this almost certainly means that the "decline of cities" that people were suggesting based on ACS data - that big cities in the Northeast/West Coast started to decline in population once Trump effectively ended immigration and birth rates continued to plummet - none of that ever happened.
I really do wonder where the miss is coming from in terms of demographics. The overcount of states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida don't suggest Latinos were undercounted. Is it possible the annual estimates underestimated non-hispanic white growth in the country? It would be strange though because white people are the most likely to reply to the census therefore you would get the most accurate data.

I can't wait until we can dive deeper into all the data later this year, but this release of data alone has been enlightening.
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  #95  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 2:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post
It would be strange though because white people are the most likely to reply to the census therefore you would get the most accurate data.
But white subgroups might not respond at remotely similar rates. Hasidic Jews? Amish? College students? Who knows. I bet there's wide variability that would account for interstate differences. If Mormons have high response rates, and Satmar Jews don't, you can see Utah "overcounted" and NY/NJ "undercounted".
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  #96  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 2:04 PM
Ant131531 Ant131531 is online now
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
But white subgroups might not respond at remotely similar rates. Hasidic Jews? Amish? College students? Who knows. I bet there's wide variability that would account for interstate differences.
Sure but they attempt to account for this type of stuff. You could say the same thing for any racial demographic.

800k miss in NY and 400k in NJ suggests something else at play though. Thank goodness Biden won or....
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  #97  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 2:22 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
I mean don't get me wrong, Texas' growth is cute and all and you grew by 4 million people but only gained 2 seats?(ugh)

I've been studying this data since I was in middle school and I can say with certainty that at this rate, Neither TX nor any other state in the 20M+ range will ever see this kind of growth ever again.

California 1980-1990
Population Growth: +6,092,257
Population Growth Rate: +25.74%
Change in Congressional Seats: +7
It's hard for me to see Texas ever catching California, but I also don't think California does itself any favors by being so gigantic. The state should at least be split into two. Same for Texas, for that matter.
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  #98  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 2:52 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post
I really do wonder where the miss is coming from in terms of demographics. The overcount of states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida don't suggest Latinos were undercounted. Is it possible the annual estimates underestimated non-hispanic white growth in the country? It would be strange though because white people are the most likely to reply to the census therefore you would get the most accurate data.

I can't wait until we can dive deeper into all the data later this year, but this release of data alone has been enlightening.
Births and deaths are very, very straight forward compared to domestic migration. There's going to be almost no missed births or deaths in an average year, statistically speaking.

It is entirely possible that a substantial number of the 2 million "new" people were undercounts from 2010 though. It would be funny if Trump attempted to sabotage the Census and it backfired spectacularly, causing millions of people to come in from the shadows instead.
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  #99  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 3:25 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Yes, that.

But also, on the macro-level, the CB underestimated the nation as a whole by roughly 2M people, regardless of where people may or may not have been moving around within it.

I mean, that's like the size of metro indianapolis. The CB essentially missed accounting for the equivalent of a decently sized metro area.

So not only were their models of internal migration pretty wrong, they also were using some combination of bad assumptions about births/deaths and immigration, legal or otherwise, for the nation at large.

As I said earlier, swing and a miss by the CB.
It's especially interesting because we've seen articles about domestic migration slowing nationally for years now. I think IL has lower rates of outbound domestic migration than most other states, but the last 5-7 years have been article after article about massive drops in population (some as high as 80k+ in any given year). The killer is that inbound numbers are dismally low.

For the actual loss to be less than 20k when the numbers were projecting 200-300k is giving conspiracy vibes . Add massive underestimations of NJ and NY and it's all suspect.
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  #100  
Old Posted Apr 27, 2021, 3:37 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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The census bureau clearly undercounts big urban centers.

What is clear is that these urban centers are becoming even more and more dense and dynamic. If the NE grew as a whole of only 4.5% or so, I'll wager a bet and say that the growth rate was concentrated in urban centers and their immediate surroundings and power within the NE will continue to consolidate in these centers and immediate suburbs. Alone, the BOS-NYC-PHL-BALT-DC corridor probably grew 10+% while the balance of these states shrunk.

It's not the worst thing in the world if PA loses a congressional district in NW PA which is shrinking 10% a decade and represented by a dinosaur, to shift the power to places that seem to be doing something right.
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