Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton
It seems like the ACS just modeled the number of people leaving the Northeast/Midwest for the Sun Belt as way, way too high.
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Yes, that.
But also, on the macro-level, the CB underestimated the nation as a whole by roughly 2M people, regardless of where people may or may not have been moving around within it.
I mean, that's like the size of metro indianapolis. The CB essentially missed accounting for the equivalent of a decently sized metro area.
So not only were their models of internal migration pretty wrong, they also were using some combination of bad assumptions about births/deaths and immigration, legal or otherwise, for the nation at large.
As I said earlier, swing and a miss by the CB.