The Official PEI Project Thread

[Siriusb]

Charlottetown Agg Population

With the StatCan estimate of 2019/07/01 being over a year old and a few months, I would think the population has now reached the 80,000 mark and possibly higher over that. If you do the math you come up with ~81,350. It appears with all the development in Stratford, Cornwall and Charlottetown, an agglomerated number over the 80,000 mark is a safe number to assume right now.

[MonctonRad]

Assuming this growth rate continues, Charlottetown might achieve a CA population of 100,000 by 2035 or so. There is frequently a 5-10 year lag between this threshold being crossed and elevation to CMA status by StatsCan, but it might be reasonable to expect a Charlottetown CMA by 2041.

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

Charlottetown Agg Population

With the StatCan estimate of 2019/07/01 being over a year old and a few months, I would think the population has now reached the 80,000 mark and possibly higher over that. If you do the math you come up with ~81,350. It appears with all the development in Stratford, Cornwall and Charlottetown, an agglomerated number over the 80,000 mark is a safe number to assume right now.

The last census estimate on July 1st 2019 had Charlottetown at 78,568. New boundary changes have come into affect for Charlottetown CA at Stats Can (I have come across them on the Stats Can site, but cannot find them today!) that will add close to 4000 people in the next census. So you could say we are already at 82568 on July 1st 2019. Factor in the growth between then and now, and I would guess we are at close to 85,000 +/- .

[MonctonRad]

If correct, this would accelerate the time frame, with a CA population of 100,000 by 2030 possible. CMA status could be conferred by 2036-41.

[JHikka]

Are we assuming that growth has been consistent throughout COVID? A lot of PEI's growth was from interprovincial and international migrants which was and have been curtailed during COVID. The Maritime provinces have been more-or-less frozen in place on StatCan's Population Clock for the last three months.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Are we assuming that growth has been consistent throughout COVID? A lot of PEI's growth was from interprovincial and international migrants which was and have been curtailed during COVID. The Maritime provinces have been more-or-less frozen in place on StatCan's Population Clock for the last three months.

If we remove nine months out of the equation back to March let's say, it probably was already over the 80,000 mark. Any population increase during this nine month period can probably attributed to people moving into the Charlottetown area from across PEI due to its vibrant economy which is above the national average. There is a lot of commercial and residential development taking place so I think the population was over the 80,000 before Covid ever came along. 85,000 might be pushing it but maybe........

[Taeolas]

In the Atlantic Stats thread, I think I pointed out the next few major milestones Maritime provinces will reach. Roughly in anticipated order, they would be:

1. Nova Scotia reaching 1 Million
2. New Brunswick reaching 800,000
3. Charlottetown reaching CMA status (the last Provincial capital to reach that, since Freddy tipped over this coming census)
4. Sydney reaching CMA. (CA has the pop, needs a lot more densification, which they are starting to work on).

The first 3 goals especially should be reached within the next decade or so, even with COVID.

So keep up the good growth Charlottetown, and you'll be there in no time. As a Freddy-resident, I know the last 5 years before tipping over can be a bit frustrating.

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

If we remove nine months out of the equation back to March let's say, it probably was already over the 80,000 mark. Any population increase during this nine month period can probably attributed to people moving into the Charlottetown area from across PEI due to its vibrant economy which is above the national average. There is a lot of commercial and residential development taking place so I think the population was over the 80,000 before Covid ever came along. 85,000 might be pushing it but maybe........

Just with boundary changes alone we are at 82500 +/-, so it was definitely over 80,000. Immigration and movement is still happening in all provinces so 85,000 is very feasible. We have to remember Charlottetown has the second smallest boundary of any CA/CMA in Atlantic Canada at just over 900 sq. km's.

Fredericton - 5,745.41 km²
Halifax - 5,490 km²

Saint John - 3,362.95 km²
Moncton - 2,559.05 km²
Sydney - 2,430.06 km²

Charlottetown - 917.47 km²
St. John's - 804.65 km²

[Siriusb]

I was in Montana's last Sunday and the place was packed for what seating arrangements they had in place. In fact, there were people waiting to get in. Nice to see a restaurant doing well during this trying time. Also Starbucks.is busy up the road. There's always a lineup at the drive thru.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by billy1

Just with boundary changes alone we are at 82500 +/-, so it was definitely over 80,000. Immigration and movement is still happening in all provinces so 85,000 is very feasible. We have to remember Charlottetown has the second smallest boundaries of any CA/CMA in Atlantic Canada at just over 900 sq. km's.

Fredericton - 5,745.41 km²
Halifax - 5,490 km²

Saint John - 3,362.95 km²
Moncton - 2,559.05 km²
Sydney - 2,430.06 km²

Charlottetown - 917.47 km²
St. John's - 804.65 km²

Charlottetown is really packed in there and it shows as sprawl is pushing the boundaries! Even more in St John's. Crunch time!

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by billy1

The last census estimate on July 1st 2019 had Charlottetown at 78,568. New boundary changes have come into affect for Charlottetown CA at Stats Can (I have come across them on the Stats Can site, but cannot find them today!) that will add close to 4000 people in the next census. So you could say we are already at 82568 on July 1st 2019. Factor in the growth between then and now, and I would guess we are at close to 85,000 +/- .

This is the new CA map. The older map didn't cover this much area but one thing I noticed is the 78,568 figure didn't change from the old CA map. At least that is what I'm seeing. If that is the case, then the CA population will be well up into the 85,000 mark or more.

[TGK]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If correct, this would accelerate the time frame, with a CA population of 100,000 by 2030 possible. CMA status could be conferred by 2036-41.

Wouldn’t the city of Charlottetown, being the core, require 50,000 people? We’re less than 40,000 now. Adding 10,000 people inside city limits is going to take a long time.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by TGK

Wouldn’t the city of Charlottetown, being the core, require 50,000 people? We’re less than 40,000 now. Adding 10,000 people inside city limits is going to take a long time.

You are quite right that the POPCTR has to be 50,000 for a CA to be elevated to a CMA. This is CBRM's problem, since their CA is already in the vicinity of 100k, but Sydney itself is only about 40,000 or so.

I have no idea what Charlottetown's true POPCTR population is. A POPCTR refers to the "continuously built up area." For Moncton, since Dieppe and Riverview are contiguous municipalities, a large portion of their population is included in our POPCTR, making our POPCTR population about 115,000 (our of a CMA population of over 150,000).

I would imagine that Stratford would be included since it is right across the bridge from Charlottetown. The status of Cornwall is less certain since there is a strip of undeveloped land between the town boundary with Charlottetown and the Cornwall town centre. This would be up to the vagaries of StatsCan to figure out. They have their own arcane rules. For example, Shediac isn't even part of Moncton's CMA, even though it is far closer to Moncton than some of the far flung areas of Westmoreland County (like Elgin) are. I know this is based on commuting patterns, but still.............

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You are quite right that the POPCTR has to be 50,000 for a CA to be elevated to a CMA. This is CBRM's problem, since their CA is already in the vicinity of 100k, but Sydney itself is only about 40,000 or so.

I have no idea what Charlottetown's true POPCTR population is. A POPCTR refers to the "continuously built up area." For Moncton, since Dieppe and Riverview are contiguous municipalities, a large portion of their population is included in our POPCTR, making our POPCTR population about 115,000 (our of a CMA population of over 150,000).

I would imagine that Stratford would be included since it is right across the bridge from Charlottetown. The status of Cornwall is less certain since there is a strip of undeveloped land between the town boundary with Charlottetown and the Cornwall town centre. This would be up to the vagaries of StatsCan to figure out. They have their own arcane rules. For example, Shediac isn't even part of Moncton's CMA, even though it is far closer to Moncton than some of the far flung areas of Westmoreland County (like Elgin) are. I know this is based on commuting patterns, but still.............

POPCTR for Charlottetown

Charlottetown P.E.I., Medium Size, 2016 - 44,739, 2011 - 41,613, %change 7.5



One thing about this is, if they are calculating the area in blue as the popctr then they are missing alot in Stratford along the eastern border and southern shore as there are quite a large residential areas not included. Also, the maps eastern Charlottetown border doesn't go all the way to the eastern boundary. If the popctr of 44,739 doesn't include these, then there is a good thousand missing.
This is an old total back four years ago and there has been much development in Stratford and Charlottetown since then.
If the listed 7.5% stays the same over that period, the popctr would be about 48,094. If it is more than that 7.5% increase, it would be getting close to that 50,000. It's getting there!

MORE HERE > https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...=0&CMA=0&CSD=0

[Siriusb]

POPCTR PEI

MORE HERE > https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...P=25#map-popup

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

POPCTR for Charlottetown

Charlottetown P.E.I., Medium Size, 2016 - 44,739, 2011 - 41,613, %change 7.5



One thing about this is, if they are calculating the area in blue as the popctr then they are missing alot in Stratford along the eastern border and southern shore as there are quite a large residential areas not included. Also, the maps eastern Charlottetown border doesn't go all the way to the eastern boundary. If the popctr of 44,739 doesn't include these, then there is a good thousand missing.
This is an old total back four years ago and there has been much development in Stratford and Charlottetown since then.
If the listed 7.5% stays the same over that period, the popctr would be about 48,094. If it is more than that 7.5% increase, it would be getting close to that 50,000. It's getting there!

MORE HERE > https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...=0&CMA=0&CSD=0

One other thing about the border of this popctr, they stated that Cornwall isn't included as it is not considered part of the popctr. Now, if that is so, why did they include North River which is now Cornwall.
I believe this popctr update will be revised again to reflect Cornwall into the popctr as it includes the area of North River, York Point and Cornwall itself which all play an important attachment to Charlottetown.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

One other thing about the border of this popctr, they stated that Cornwall isn't included as it is not considered part of the popctr. Now, if that is so, why did they include North River which is now Cornwall.
I believe this popctr update will be revised again to reflect Cornwall into the popctr as it includes the area of North River, York Point and Cornwall itself which all play an important attachment to Charlottetown.

As I noted in my previous response, a POPCTR refers to a continuously built up area. North River is contiguous to the population centre of Charlottetown while the Cornwall town centre is separated from the continually populated area of the city by a narrow strip of farmland, therefore is not "contiguous." I anticipated this in my response.

Similarly in Moncton, large portions of Riverview and Dieppe are included in the POPCTR for Moncton, but not all of these two municipalities - just the built up portions adjacent to the Moncton city boundary.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

I see there is a "For Lease" sign in the window so who knows what is going in the Local now. We'll have to wait and see now.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

As I noted in my previous response, a POPCTR refers to a continuously built up area. North River is contiguous to the population centre of Charlottetown while the Cornwall town centre is separated from the continually populated area of the city by a narrow strip of farmland, therefore is not "contiguous." I anticipated this in my response.

Similarly in Moncton, large portions of Riverview and Dieppe are included in the POPCTR for Moncton, but not all of these two municipalities - just the built up portions adjacent to the Moncton city boundary.

Very good, the non-contiguous areas are not noted in the POPCTR but are covered under the CA.

With the POPCTR at 44,739, the next census will give us a popctr close to the 50,000 mark. With all the new development going on now and in the future in the popctr will accelerate this, something that didn't exist to this degree 5-6 years ago.

[MonctonRad]

I agree. It will not be too long before Charlottetown's POPCTR exceeds 50,000. By the time the CA gets above 100,000, the POPCTR population likely won't be an impediment to the city achieving CMA status.

Either 2036 or 2041 I would think.