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  #41  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 1:23 PM
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Having spent a couple of months in Kabul (about 15 years ago), I don't see any way it could possibly support 50 million people. Even back then (with only a couple of million), the valley was very crowded.
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  #42  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 1:31 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
The US Great Lakes states have been growing much slower than the rest of the US for decades but it's this region that will likely be least affected by climate change/depleted aquifers. The Great Lakes are a massive natural built in advantage. Besides, if temperature are going to rise will people keep flocking to the Sun Belt? Americans might start looking at northern states in a new light.
I think a renaissance of Great Lakes and Midwest cities will happen regardless of climate change. Maybe not to the point where they are at their previous population peaks but many will have stable growth. That’s a prediction I’ve been making for years though.

The majority of growth will still be focused on the Sun Belt specifically the Southeast. Desert and mountain areas that have been fast growing recently will level off along with California and the west coast. The northeast including NYC will continue to lose population. Overall growth in the United States will be low and mostly concentrated in inland Southern cities.
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  #43  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 3:15 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Albertans have been dismissing Quebec as an economic basket case for almost as long.

Neither perspective is justified.
Agree 1,000%. I'm not sure why that comment is being directed at me though. I have the entire country growing strongly. Alberta growing even faster does not mean that Quebec, Ontario, BC, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Atlantic Canada, or the North are economic basket cases.
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  #44  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 5:12 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
I think a renaissance of Great Lakes and Midwest cities will happen regardless of climate change. Maybe not to the point where they are at their previous population peaks but many will have stable growth. That’s a prediction I’ve been making for years though.

The majority of growth will still be focused on the Sun Belt specifically the Southeast. Desert and mountain areas that have been fast growing recently will level off along with California and the west coast. The northeast including NYC will continue to lose population. Overall growth in the United States will be low and mostly concentrated in inland Southern cities.
I wouldn't classify the entire Sun Belt together. California, Nevada, and Arizona are close to their carrying capacity or well beyond that already. Florida has multiple problems. Sea level rise will put large swaths of South Florida under water in the latter half of this century while massive depletion of aquifers is causing land collapse. Florida is the sink hole capital of the US for a reason.

I suppose Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma can grow significantly still as can the rest of the southeast. How hot a climate are people willing to live in though? Surely people don't want it hotter than it already is. Then there are a slew of states that are in big trouble due to the Ogallala Aquifer running empty. They're scraping the bottom of the well, so to speak, with wells going dry all over. Agricultural production will end in these places and it will happen in our lifetimes.



I see a resurgence of the Great Lakes states but a much stronger pivot north than you. Great Lakes states will reach new peak populations and grow faster than the US average. NYC? Yes, that might decline but don't necessarily see the entire Northeast mirroring NYC. Pennsylvania and Western NY will grow like the rest of the Great Lakes region. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana should do fine as well. Like you, I see population growth for the entire US being negligible going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if the US had the same population in 2050 as it does now. Maybe it will even dip a little.
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Last edited by isaidso; Sep 27, 2020 at 5:36 PM.
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  #45  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 7:41 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Cities in the West always plateau at a certain point, and sustaining a high growth rates becomes very difficult. We saw this with London, New York, Los Angeles, Paris, San Francisco....
Yes, Dallas has an advantage of having no geographic constraints, but without significant densification it will be difficult for it to grow.
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  #46  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 9:04 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Cities in the West always plateau at a certain point, and sustaining a high growth rates becomes very difficult. We saw this with London, New York, Los Angeles, Paris, San Francisco....
Arguably, London/Southeast England has been growing quite fast on the past 20 years. Numbers for the region:

-- Est 2018 ----- Cen 2011 ----- Cen 2001
24,242,920 --- 22,655,656 --- 20,560,876 --- 7.01% --- 10.19%

San Francisco region is also doing quite well despite the geographic constrictions and high housing prices.

In the past, we had Los Angeles CSA, jumping from 11,497,486 (1980) to 14,531,529 (1990), an impressive 26.4% growth, faster than today's Houston or Dallas.

I guess just being "too big" is not enough to stop Dallas. Their growth is getting smaller, but very slowly, falling from 28% in the 1990's to 22% in the 2000's and 20% in the 2010's. They will probably reach 8.1 million inh. in 2020 and are heading for a 9.5 million or so in the 2030.
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  #47  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 9:24 PM
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  #48  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2020, 11:44 PM
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Originally Posted by CaliNative View Post
Will Melbourne surpass Sydney in population and economic importance by 2050? Are they considered codominant equals now? In skyline growth, Melbourne seems to have overtaken Sydney.
Melbourne was on track to overtake Sydney maybe in a decade or so - That's unlikely to happen now after their corona outbreak and subsequent totalitarian over-reaction by the government (curfews, mandatory mask laws, public and private gatherings illegal - now the world's longest lockdown). Many businesses are saying they want to move out of state - it's hard to plan for the future when your state government (who has done it's own deals with China to be part of it's OBOR policy) can arbitrarily shut down your business for months at a time.

I suspect Queensland will get a good chunk of the growth that would have gone to Victoria.

Sydney's cases and government reaction have been mild in comparison and most hospitality was back up and running quickly after an initial shutdown. I managed to go skiing and to the beach last month while Victorians were and still are forbidden from travelling more than 5km from their homes.

I know where i'd rather be, and I think Sydney will be top dog for a while longer.
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  #49  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:00 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I guess just being "too big" is not enough to stop Dallas. Their growth is getting smaller, but very slowly, falling from 28% in the 1990's to 22% in the 2000's and 20% in the 2010's. They will probably reach 8.1 million inh. in 2020 and are heading for a 9.5 million or so in the 2030.
You have Dallas growing by 1.4 million from 2020 to 2030 or roughly +140,000 annually. So you see the lower absolute growth in the Dallas CSA 2017-2019 as a blip and it will head back up again? I suppose it could but the trend line is down.


Dallas-Ft.Worth, TX-OK CSA

2019: 8,057,796 (+124,683)
2018: 7,933,113 (+127,691)
2017: 7,805,422 (+150,337)
2016: 7,655,085 (+158,332)
2015: 7,496,753 (+157,455)


https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...al-areas.html#
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Last edited by isaidso; Sep 28, 2020 at 2:51 AM.
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  #50  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:10 AM
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How the fuck does the DFW metro extend into Oklahoma? That is a ridiculously large catchment area.

https://www.google.com/maps/search/d...6.811227,8.84z
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  #51  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:25 AM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
How the fuck does the DFW metro extend into Oklahoma? That is a ridiculously large catchment area.
that's just MSA/CSA silliness, where the US census bureau mashes together county after county after county until you end up with these massively bloated areas that are really more regional measures; not what we typically think of as "metropolitan areas".


the dallas/ft. worth CSA is over 14,000 sq. miles spread across 19 counties.

that's larger than 9 US states.

and the vast majority of that area is decidedly rural.


for comparison, the dallas/ft. worth Urban Area is a MUCH more realistic 1,800 sq. miles.
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  #52  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:31 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
New Delhi and its neighbouring districts (16,373 km² - as comparison New York MSA is at 17,315 km²) had 34.7 million inh. according to the 2011 Census. It will probably be above 41 million for 2021.

So I guess New Delhi is on its way to reach those 60 million inh.
Delhi may be one of the very few exceptions, considering that the Indian Capital region has relatively decent transport infrastructure bones and a large and growing metro network. However that does not consider the fact that commute times are a big factor in where people choose to live. Manila is rather small in urban area but has a very high average commute, some even taking upwards of 4 hours.

I doubt many will have the tolerance to commute upwards of 5 hours just to get to work, which is something that seems likely in the "predicted" megacities of 60+ million people, Much of this urban migration will move to other locations as commutes stop being hellish and start becoming downright impossible to achieve.

There are also geographic considerations, Kinshasa and Dar Es Salaam have serious hurdles in terms of developing transport infrastructure, Lagos as I had stated will likely be severely impacted by rising sea levels to the point where I would presume many internal migrants would turn to Abuja. Another major consideration that has been pointed out by CaliNative that many nations would likely struggle to be able to feed that many people, especially since they are less developed, the logistics in supporting a large urban population requires good transport infrastructure, and in some cases even requires nations to import food from abroad to meet demand, I don't see how that is sustainable in other than the short term.

This last point is a bit subjective but I also find it difficult to consider one conurbanation a single city if people in different parts of a large 'megalopolis' commute to very distant centres. There is a difference of a single city with many nodes, and completely separate cities in close proximity and even share the same 'built-up' area. A couple notable examples would be Washington DC and Baltimore; and New York and Philadelphia. Both pairs have minimal undeveloped land between each respective urban area, Washington and Baltimore share the same 'Built up' area as well, but they are considered separate because few people commute from the Baltimore metro to Washington DC and vice versa, even more so for New York and Philadelphia. There are some, but not enough to really consider either a single urban area.
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  #53  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:42 AM
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I may as well do the same for Toronto. Instead of using the Greater Golden Horseshoe (~9.7 million people) or the Golden Horseshoe (~8.1 million people) for 2019, I'll use the smaller catchment area that is Greater Toronto-Hamilton.

Greater Toronto-Hamilton

2019: 7,680,502 (+144,566)
2018: 7,535,936 (+140,424)
2017: 7,395,512 (+109,575)
2016: 7,285,937 (+94,110)
2015: 7,191,827 (+55,214)


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm
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Last edited by isaidso; Sep 28, 2020 at 2:52 AM.
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  #54  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:45 AM
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World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
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Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams

Last edited by isaidso; Sep 28, 2020 at 3:00 AM.
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  #55  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:56 AM
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Probably Calgary. Many reasons for this.
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  #56  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 3:31 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Arguably, London/Southeast England has been growing quite fast on the past 20 years. Numbers for the region:

-- Est 2018 ----- Cen 2011 ----- Cen 2001
24,242,920 --- 22,655,656 --- 20,560,876 --- 7.01% --- 10.19%
The 2020 count is just over 25m now, which tallies up as a 21.6% increase since 2001. For the city proper (Greater London) it's a 28% increase, from 7.28 million to 9.3 million. The metro overall grew by about half a million each year.

It remains to be seen what the effect Brexit+ pandemic will have, whether a stilling of growth or even higher as dead-end towns across the spectrum see people fleeing to the bright lights, as has been seen in depopulating nations and their booming primary cities (eg Japan, Russia and Ukraine). Also the dip in immigration from the EU was merely filled in (and more, with the highest level in 45 years) with people from outside it, taking up the slack. Royally pissed off the UKippers, but they can't moan about it anymore.

Last edited by muppet; Sep 28, 2020 at 3:55 AM.
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  #57  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:11 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
You have Dallas growing by 1.4 million from 2020 to 2030 or roughly +140,000 annually. So you see the lower absolute growth in the Dallas CSA 2017-2019 as a blip and it will head back up again? I suppose it could but the trend line is down.


Dallas-Ft.Worth, TX-OK CSA

2019: 8,057,796 (+124,683)
2018: 7,933,113 (+127,691)
2017: 7,805,422 (+150,337)
2016: 7,655,085 (+158,332)
2015: 7,496,753 (+157,455)


https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...al-areas.html#
isaidso, I was not talking about Dallas not slowing down per se. It surely might. Chicago, for instance, went from double-digit growth in the 1990's to zero by the late 2000's. I meant we can't assume Dallas will slow down just because it became "too big".

You see, Dallas (at current CSA borders) was just above 4 million in 1990 and growing at 28%. Now we have an 8 million Dallas growing at very impressive 20% rate, even though the US growth was cut by half over this period.

It seems this yearly reduction on Dallas growth is in line with the fall of the US as a whole. It doesn't seem Dallas is losing much of its share of country's total growth.

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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
How the fuck does the DFW metro extend into Oklahoma? That is a ridiculously large catchment area.

https://www.google.com/maps/search/d...6.811227,8.84z
But it's just one small county. 47,000 inh. only. It doesn't matter much.
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  #58  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 2:29 PM
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Originally Posted by 333609543 View Post
Delhi may be one of the very few exceptions, considering that the Indian Capital region has relatively decent transport infrastructure bones and a large and growing metro network. However that does not consider the fact that commute times are a big factor in where people choose to live. Manila is rather small in urban area but has a very high average commute, some even taking upwards of 4 hours.

I doubt many will have the tolerance to commute upwards of 5 hours just to get to work, which is something that seems likely in the "predicted" megacities of 60+ million people, Much of this urban migration will move to other locations as commutes stop being hellish and start becoming downright impossible to achieve.
But those big urban areas might have those secondary employment hubs, a bit like São Paulo, Tokyo or Los Angeles, eliminating those ultra long commutes.

I know nothing about the area, but let's say a person living in those southern districts neighbouring New Delhi won't look for a job on the northern end of it.

Tokyo itself is still growing and by some definition has 40 million inh. Kanto plain could house another 20% (or 50 million inh.) without changing a lot how the urban area looks, so it's conceivable to think of a 50 million people city.

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Originally Posted by 333609543 View Post
There are also geographic considerations, Kinshasa and Dar Es Salaam have serious hurdles in terms of developing transport infrastructure, Lagos as I had stated will likely be severely impacted by rising sea levels to the point where I would presume many internal migrants would turn to Abuja. Another major consideration that has been pointed out by CaliNative that many nations would likely struggle to be able to feed that many people, especially since they are less developed, the logistics in supporting a large urban population requires good transport infrastructure, and in some cases even requires nations to import food from abroad to meet demand, I don't see how that is sustainable in other than the short term.
I won't dare to talk about African cities because they will (or not) become massive in the future, due very high birth rates, so I think it's very hard to talk about them becoming 50 million people cities now.

And obviously they have this infrastructure issues.

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Originally Posted by 333609543 View Post
This last point is a bit subjective but I also find it difficult to consider one conurbanation a single city if people in different parts of a large 'megalopolis' commute to very distant centres. There is a difference of a single city with many nodes, and completely separate cities in close proximity and even share the same 'built-up' area. A couple notable examples would be Washington DC and Baltimore; and New York and Philadelphia. Both pairs have minimal undeveloped land between each respective urban area, Washington and Baltimore share the same 'Built up' area as well, but they are considered separate because few people commute from the Baltimore metro to Washington DC and vice versa, even more so for New York and Philadelphia. There are some, but not enough to really consider either a single urban area.
But then we have multicentric metropolitan areas for that. The Ruhr or even the larger Ruhr-Rhine metropolis. I guess Washington and Baltimore, as today, might be considered one of those. São Paulo and Campinas and specially New York and Philadelphia still have a long way to go. They are just neighbouring metro areas.
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  #59  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 3:10 PM
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They predict Lagos, Kinshasa and Dar Es Salaam at having a stab at over 80 million.

West Africa and the East African lakes (even the small towns of Blantyre and Lilongwe will have ballooned to over 40 million by then) will become new centres of humanity, to join the Indian subcontinent and East Asia.


The problem with these type of predictions is that they seemingly fail to account for the fact that growth in developing countries is either already levelling off, or inevitably will slow as they urbanize & become wealthier. That, and cities naturally slow down as they increase in size as smaller centres start to feed off of them (we can see this in the US for example, where most growth has now shifted from NY & LA to smaller & mid-sized cities). Growth is not infinite.

I doubt any of these cities will ever reach those populations - though they will still no doubt be amongst the world's largest in the coming decades.
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  #60  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2020, 3:26 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
How the fuck does the DFW metro extend into Oklahoma? That is a ridiculously large catchment area.

https://www.google.com/maps/search/d...6.811227,8.84z
I don’t think anyone was saying it would extend into Oklahoma but continue toward Oklahoma. Look at all of the new development north in cities like McKinney, Frisco and Allen, these were small towns 20 years ago. Not difficult to think that towns like Prosper and Anna will be a similar size in 20 years with Gunter and Van Alstyne next in line. The growth along US 75 has been unbelievable.
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