Millennials Continue to Leave Big Cities

[pj3000]

Millennials Continue to Leave Big Cities

Census figures show smaller drop in young urban residents than previous years, but many still leaving for cheaper housing, better schools

https://www.wsj.com/articles/millenn...es-11569470460

Large U.S. cities lost tens of thousands of millennial and younger Gen X residents last year, according to Census figures released Thursday that offer fresh signs of cooling urban growth.

Cities with more than a half million people collectively lost almost 27,000 residents age 25 to 39 in 2018, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the figures. It was the fourth consecutive year that big cities saw this population of young adults shrink. New York, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Washington and Portland, Ore., were among those that lost large numbers of residents in this age group.

The 2018 drop was driven by a fall in the number of urban residents between 35 and 39 years old. While the number of adults younger than that rose in big cities, those gains have tapered off in recent years.

Separate Census figures show the majority of people in these age groups who leave cities move to nearby suburbs or the suburbs of other metro areas.

City officials say that high housing costs and poor schools are main reasons that people are leaving. Although millennials—the cohort born between 1981 and 1996—are marrying and having children at lower rates than previous generations, those who do are following in their footsteps and often settling down in suburbs.

[Steely Dan]

great, so now they're killing cities too.

god, is there anything they won't kill?

thanks, millennials.


worst. generation. ever.

[PhilliesPhan]

As a Millennial (some studies consider me Gen Z, depending on what they consider 1995 to be), you couldn't pay me enough money to move to the suburbs. I'm currently living in Philadelphia and enjoying every moment of it: I live in a luxury apartment with a full view of the Center City skyline, numerous bars and restaurants are nearby, I have four full-service supermarkets within walking distance from me, and I am able to successfully live car-free. I can't imagine giving all of that up, even when kids become part of the equation.

While I can't guarantee that I'll be in Philly forever (I'm a lifer who LOVES my city, but my girl may need to pursue her Master's in another city), I can guarantee that my girl and I will be looking to live in a major city for the long-term.

Also, writing about what Millennials are doing is so 2005. Most Millennials are in their 30s now, and the younger ones--such as my girlfriend and I--are cusp babies who could be considered either Millennials or Gen Z. We're the ones who are going to jump in and continue the movement that the older Millennials started.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by RavioliAficionado

Obviously that is a hyperbolic example, but when you consider the prices of many cities the question often is less who WANTS to be there and more who can AFFORD to be there.

Yep. Especially once a bun is in the oven...

[MonkeyRonin]

And how many Gen Z residents did they gain in their place?

Who cares about the population fluctuations of a particular randomly defined generational cohort?

[mrnyc]

does this merely have something to do with dips and rises in the birth patterns of these generations?

a lot of people who move to cities, it isnt really for them. meaning, for them for life. they just connect and starter family there, then move out to the burbs. same as its ever been really.

[Crawford]

Millennials are essentially the child-bearing cohort now. Why would it be surprising that the child-bearing cohort is more likely to move to places more centered around the child-rearing phase?

Has there ever, in the history of modern U.S., been a phase when the child-bearing cohort moved from suburbs to cities? I doubt it. This is the phase when households need the most space for the least money.

[iheartthed]

Four years ago is roughly when all millennials became the age of majority, and three years ago is when the anti-immigrant mood in the U.S. went into high gear. There are no new millennials to add to cities, unless they come from other countries.

[Rauth85]

No I don’t. Never will.


I would consider buying a place in the burbs to store visiting family, but I would never live out there.


City raised children are more intelligent and progressive. It’s just better.

[Londonee]

I don't understand these articles. Was there some assumption that every millenial that ever moved into a city would stay forever in the city? It's absurd. Millenials are now early 20s to late 30s - this is all normal life migratory patterns.

Cities will only have a problem if the generations after millennials eschew them - and I don't see that happening any time soon.

[Steely Dan]

For some the city is "a phase of life".

For others the city is "a way of life".

Each generation produces plenty of both.

Why would millennials be any different?

[liat91]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Four years ago is roughly when all millennials became the age of majority, and three years ago is when the anti-immigrant mood in the U.S. went into high gear. There are no new millennials to add to cities, unless they come from other countries.

Sure there are. Immigrants mostly go to the suburbs anyway. It’s inflated housing prices that are guiding the flow. There’s a lot of global money out there and a good chunk of it is parking itself in our most desirable metropolitan area real estate. Bitter sweet though.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by liat91

Sure there are. Immigrants mostly go to the suburbs anyway. It’s inflated housing prices that are guiding the flow.

No. The immigrants in Woodfield Mall are H-1B visa holders, heavily Asian, and professionals. They're less affected by the current anti-immigrant sentiment. Immigrants in cities tend to be working class, and heavily Hispanic.

Gateway urban Hispanic neighborhoods have been massively affected by the nativist movement. Trump has done nothing to limit H-1B visas, so Indians, in say Schaumburg, are, so far, unaffected.

And the suburban Asian professionals are not deterred by "inflated housing prices". They make lots of money, but they prefer McMansion suburbia, and pay big bucks to be in large homes in the highest performing school districts.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Crawford

No. The immigrants in Woodfield Mall are H-1B visa holders, heavily Asian, and professionals. They're less affected by the current anti-immigrant sentiment. Immigrants in cities tend to be working class, and heavily Hispanic.

Gateway urban Hispanic neighborhoods have been massively affected by the nativist movement. Trump has done nothing to limit H-1B visas, so Indians, in say Schaumburg, are, so far, unaffected.

And the suburban Asian professionals are not deterred by "inflated housing prices". They make lots of money, but they prefer McMansion suburbia, and pay big bucks to be in large homes in the highest performing school districts.

Probably 30% of the immigrants at the mall are Hispanic
And a disproportionate amount of the growth in downtown Chicago’s population is higher income Asians.
So while your generalizations are holding true, they are breaking down.
Asian immigrants are preferring the burbs, but younger generations are preferring the city.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by liat91

Sure there are.

Where are new millennials coming from?

Originally Posted by liat91

Immigrants mostly go to the suburbs anyway. It’s inflated housing prices that are guiding the flow. There’s a lot of global money out there and a good chunk of it is parking itself in our most desirable metropolitan area real estate. Bitter sweet though.

I don't agree with you here. Immigrants tend to head for the places with the strongest urban centers. Of all the subgroups living in America, immigrant millennials is the group most biased towards dense urban cities on the coasts.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Where are new millennials coming from?



I don't agree with you here. Immigrants tend to head for the places with the strongest urban centers. Of all the subgroups living in America, immigrant millennials is the group most biased towards dense urban cities on the coasts.

It's not that there are new millennials.

Young college-educated adults have always lived longer in the urban core than their peers. What's different about millennial s is not that they prefer urban living more or less than previous generations, but that the younger they are, the more diverse and educated and more likely to delay marriage they are - all factors that favor urban living. Generation Z will be even more urban.

Barring exorbitant house prices, many researchers don't expect to see a decline in urban growth for another 2 decades. By which point the city-suburb dynamic could drastically change.



https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/mi...ban-landscape/

[JManc]

Good...and take your avocado toast with you.

[JManc]

When X'ers were starting out..mid 80's through the 90's, cities weren't as desirable yet. Gentrification and trendiness of urban living was in its infancy by the mid 90's.

[eschaton]

One aspect we haven't discussed is these numbers are inclusive of everyone in that age range.

When we talk about millennials gentrifying, we're talking about a certain kind of millennial.

Cities losing a large number of working-class black/brown millennials still fit in with the overall "rise of the cities" narrative. Particularly because you can argue that the success of urban cores (which have brought up housing prices) along with the decline of inner-ring suburbia has opened up a lot of new opportunities for these folks in terms of housing.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by JManc

When X'ers were starting out..mid 80's through the 90's, cities weren't as desirable yet. Gentrification and trendiness of urban living was in its infancy by the mid 90's.

Not sure if I fully agree with you; those early 80s Yuppies were already into urban living... YUPpies were Young Urban Professionals after all. And then there were the artist-types that were moving into warehouses and industrial sections of cities in the early 80s; that's how the Arts District was formed in LA. So I think by the late 1970s/early 1980s, younger people were already starting to reject the boring cookie-cutter suburbs and mall-ification that the Baby Boomers had embraced.

I'm a Gen-Xer (born in 1970), and even when I was a teen, my friends and I talked about leaving the goddamn suburbs and moving to the big city... but at the time for me, that meant an apartment or bungalow in or near West Hollywood. Maybe my generation was split between liking the suburbs and liking the city. I definitely wanted to get out of postwar-era suburbia.