Largest Counties By Votes for Biden and Trump, 2020

[STLgasm]

Here are Baltimore and St Louis margins with city+primary suburban county combined...

Baltimore
City: 87.6%
County: 59.7%
Combined: 71.6%

St. Louis
City: 82.3%
County: 61.1%
Combined: 66.4%

Even excluding their central cities, the primary suburbs of Baltimore and St. Louis are deeper blue than many peer metros whose main county does include the central city (i.e. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, etc). Missouri may be red as a whole, but St. Louis and its main suburbs are almost coastal blue.

[Quixote]

Originally Posted by Quixote

How about this:

California will probably end up being the state with the most Biden support, overtaking Massachusetts and Vermont. This is especially true because there's a shit ton (both in raw number and percentage) of absentee ballots that remain uncounted.


CA
64.8% Biden
33.2% Trump

89% in

...

Looks like a good amount of Trump supporters in CA also voted by mail.

With 95% of the votes counted:

64.3% Biden
33.6% Trump

[PersonOfInterest]

Originally Posted by Handro

Yes I think some of the trends we're seeing would look very different with a Biden vs. (insert normal Republican) election. People prognosticating that AZ, Georgia will now be blue states or that the Democratic white whale of Texas is finally about to flip are missing how many centrist Republicans held their nose and voted for Biden and will gladly be red again in 2024. Seeing the way these collar counties voted is testament to that. The fact that Trump lost many of the suburban districts but Republicans gained House seats in some of them is more proof that Trumpism is what was rejected, not the Republican party. Good news for Republicans as its proof voters might not tarnish them with the Trump label forever.

Is that more from the massive massive gerrymandering the repubs have gotten up to?

[Crawford]

Another Southern Brooklyn/SI demographic that likely went heavily Trump - Albanians. Albanians, at least in the metro NY context, tend to have cultural similarities to Italian-Americans, and tend to settle in Italian-American enclaves.

In fact a huge % of Italian restaurants and pizzerias are nowadays owned by Albanians, many of which speak Italian. Italian is a "second language" of Albania for historical reasons.

[mville1]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I'm talking about voter share, not whether there are militant nuts. Appalachia has extreme Trump voter share, higher than non-Appalachian rural America.

Also, and this is probably a minor factor, but the Amish are heavy Trumpy, and I believe Ohio is #1 or #2 in state population of Amish.

The Amish play an extremely minor factor in presidential elections in states where they have significant populations i.e. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, etc. I cannot speak to Ohio's numbers and we do not have 2020 numbers yet, but for example in Pennsylvania in the 2016 presidential election only 1,016 Amish voted. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by more than 44,000 votes. Or to put it another way, over 5.9 million votes were cast in the 2016 presidential election in Pennsylvania. Out of those 5.9 million votes only 1,016 were cast by Amish voters. Now, Amish voters normally turn out in higher numbers in local elections, but even then their average turnout is between 5 and 7 percent. But to your point of Amish voters skewing toward Trump, in Pennsylvania 90 percent of registered Amish voters are Republicans.

Amish participation in the American political system has always been pretty low and the article I linked to you explains the reasons behind this phenomenon.

https://www.ydr.com/story/news/2020/...er/6044235002/

Finally, Ohio has the second largest population of Amish in the United States behind Pennsylvania, but Holmes County Ohio has the highest concentration of Amish in the country. In fact, Holmes County as of 2020 might be the only county??? in the U.S. where a dialect of German is the majority language.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

not being italian american., i don't understand it either, but my wife is 100% italian american and has deep italian roots here in chicago (she even has some mafia second cousins who've been whacked or done time in prison, but no direct contact with that "wing" of her family anymore), with a bunch of aunts, uncles and cousins who all live in the southwest burbs (palos/orland area), and from those whose politics i know, they're all aboard the trump train.

my wife is 100% the opposite of that, but i believe she's also the only person of her extended family still living within city limits. she had a few older hold-out relatives down in little italy/bridgeport years ago, but they've now passed on.

Originally Posted by JManc

It's not about Italian Americans but socioeconomics. Blue collar Italians will vote like any other blue collar group. I'm Italian, most of my family voted for Biden. But they aren't Paulie Walnut types either.

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's a likely distinction among Italian-American voters, though.

SI Italians are of relatively recent stock. They immigrated in the postwar decades, from Sicily and Calabria, mostly. They aren't the same as random Italian-Americans in South Florida or Central Jersey, who hail from the huge prewar European migration waves.

Of course, I shouldn't have painted it with such a broad brush... I definitely do not think that all Italian-Americans are Trumpers. Just based on population/national voting results, most Italian-Americans are quite likely not to be Trump supporters.

It's just interesting to note that we've seen the in-your-face Trump and pro-cop/anit-BLM rallies and parades in NYC neighborhoods like Dyker Hts, Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst, SI, and Howard Beach on TV. There's no denying a certain correlation when there's a very visible common denominator.

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

There's a certain machismo to Italian-North American culture that may leave it susceptible to right wing populist "strongmen" leaders. It's probably for that same reason that Trump performed better than expected amongst Latinos as well.

Originally Posted by Docere

Re: Italians, I think they're often in the higher income but less occupationally prestigious demographic which is ripe for Trumpism (or Doug Ford in Ontario).

Yeah, these are interesting and fraught angles... trump's populism and "tough-guy" persona (even if completely a put-on) definitely tapped into a vibe that has existed/exists more recently in certain regions of the world.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Similarly in chicago, cook county still has over 400,000 ballots to process, and if they're heavily mail-in, which they most likely are, then we might see cook county edging up from its current 73% vote share for biden to something closer to 80%.

That's a very high percentage for a 5.1M person county of some 1,000 square miles that not only includes the giant central city, but also vast, VAST swaths of its inner and middle ring suburbia.

we just got a huge vote dump this morning for cook county, another 10 percentage points, so now only ~12% of the county's ballots remain untallied.



here's where cook county stands now:

biden: 74.1%

trump: 24.4%

est. 88% reporting



so the outstanding ballots coming in are not as heavily biden-leaning as i was suspecting.

none-the-less, when the final 12% come in, cook county will likely be over 75% biden, still pretty impressive for a county as massive as cook.

[ocman]

Taking these numbers at face value it's pretty amazing that democrats have completely monopolized plus 1M counties. Even the 3 that went Republican leaned by a slim margin.

Also I never thought CA would ever overtake the smaller New England states in voting democrat considering how large and diverse the state is.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by ocman

Taking these numbers at face value it's pretty amazing that democrats have completely monopolized plus 1M counties. Even the 3 that went Republican leaned by a slim margin.

The Republican Party has only won one national popular vote since the 1980s, so that's not surprising to me at all.

[Docere]

Hennepin County saw an 8 point swing to the Democrats and 100,000 increase in the Democratic vote. And apparently the city of Minneapolis voted to the left of San Francisco.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

since material politics are dead and labor organization has been gutted, we now just have the don’t be a pussy party (macho/masculine) and don’t be an asshole party (feminine).

This is too accurate.

[westak]

In Ohio, counties with "smaller" Urban areas flipping from solidly blue to either solidly or overwhelmgly red is fascinating. Trump won the following counties that were Blue and in some cases D+15 to D+28 during the Obama years.

Stark(Canton)
Mahoning(Youngstown)
Trumbull(Warren)
Lorain(Lorain/Elyria).

[jtown,man]

Delete.

Forgot I wasn't in CE

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by pj3000

^^^ Kinda cool... but probably doesn't really say that much about the makeup of the electorate because most counties are right on the blue-red line (i.e., the small arrows)... with only a few thousand or less votes being the difference.

However, the big arrows in certain places do have a story to tell.

Yes, the bright red arrows in South Texas really interest me. Anyone have further info on that?

[ocman]

Originally Posted by Handro

Yes I think some of the trends we're seeing would look very different with a Biden vs. (insert normal Republican) election. People prognosticating that AZ, Georgia will now be blue states or that the Democratic white whale of Texas is finally about to flip are missing how many centrist Republicans held their nose and voted for Biden and will gladly be red again in 2024. Seeing the way these collar counties voted is testament to that. The fact that Trump lost many of the suburban districts but Republicans gained House seats in some of them is more proof that Trumpism is what was rejected, not the Republican party. Good news for Republicans as its proof voters might not tarnish them with the Trump label forever.

Anyone other than Biden, and Trump would still be president. I'm convinced a lot of Republicans in these swing states begrudgingly leaned towards Biden. With the modest wins in all these swing states, imagine a Republican who was actually capable. At the same time, I don't see the Republican party coming back down to Earth from Trump's toxic influence any time soon.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by ocman

Anyone other than Biden, and Trump would still be president. I'm convinced a lot of Republicans in these swing states begrudgingly leaned towards Biden. With the modest wins in all these swing states, imagine a Republican who was actually capable. At the same time, I don't see the Republican party coming back down to Earth from Trump's toxic influence any time soon.

I'll put money on this:

Dan Crenshaw will run in 2024 and win big.

Hes young, interesting, and can present complex issues in an understandable way. He's the white Obama in some respects.

[Steely Dan]

guys, let's please keep the discussion here exclusively related to the results of this election.

if you want to talk about 2024, take it to the CE toilet.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

guys, let's please keep the discussion here exclusively related to the results of this election.

if you want to talk about 2024, take it to the CE toilet.

Sorry.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by westak

In Ohio, counties with "smaller" Urban areas flipping from solidly blue to either solidly or overwhelmgly red is fascinating. Trump won the following counties that were Blue and in some cases D+15 to D+28 during the Obama years.

Stark(Canton)
Mahoning(Youngstown)
Trumbull(Warren)
Lorain(Lorain/Elyria).

I think this is interesting in contrast to Pennsylvania counties/metros that trump flipped from blue to red in 2016.

Erie (Erie)
2012 - Obama 59-40
2016 - trump 48-46
2020 - Biden 50-49

Northampton (Bethlehem, Easton)
2012 - Obama 52-47
2016 - trump 50-46
2020 - Biden 50-49

Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
2012 - Obama 52-47
2016 - trump 58-39
2020 - trump 57-42

The big swings are really telling...

- Erie County basically became the unfortunate national poster child for the Obama to trump flip. A solidly and reliably blue county that goes roughly 60% for Obama in 2012, barely ends up for trump by like 1,500 votes (only because some suburban areas went a little bit "purple"). Notable that Hillary did not set foot in Erie County, and barely was in PA during her 2016 campaign.

- Luzerne County going so hard red in 2016 and staying red in 2020 by a significant margin is notable.

[Crawford]

Those Ohio metro counties are some of the rustiest in America. Youngstown, Canton, Warren, Lorain.

Populism, even fascist drift, has appeal when people feel they're down and out. This will be a huge challenge in the coming years, whomever is in power.