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  #2021  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2010, 11:06 PM
wwmiv wwmiv is offline
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We should really give this project ten years before we judge. The line is currently not near anything dense. However, there are many opportunities along the line. Plaza Saltillo being redeveloped is one, the Waller Creek plan another, Highland Mall presents an attractive VMU/TOD development opportunity, that Lakeline Mall stop is being planned as a development, the North Burnet area in 20 years could end up being like Buckhead in Atlanta (hopefully). There really are some nice opportunities for this line.

All that said, EIGHT RIDERS!??! That's pitiful.

Last edited by wwmiv; Apr 16, 2010 at 12:34 AM.
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  #2022  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 12:12 AM
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You know, I really don't get this Us and Them attitude you have about Cap Metro. If you are a citizen of Austin, they are also your transit agency. City Council members are also Cap Metro Board members. Just because you do not like them does not mean they aren't your transit agency. You might not be a Republican, but that does not mean you are not a Texan because they dominate the Capitol.
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  #2023  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 12:29 AM
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I would love to ride the train if it actually went down to the southside.
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  #2024  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 1:30 AM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
We should really give this project ten years before we judge. The line is currently not near anything dense. However, there are many opportunities along the line. Plaza Saltillo being redeveloped is one, the Waller Creek plan another, Highland Mall presents an attractive VMU/TOD development opportunity, that Lakeline Mall stop is being planned as a development, the North Burnet area in 20 years could end up being like Buckhead in Atlanta (hopefully). There really are some nice opportunities for this line.
But why wait 10 years for density to develop somewhere it doesn't currently exist, when we have the densest zip code in the state (78705) that we could be servicing? Ten years would be a horrible waste of money. Even 1 year probably is. They should just make it free for 6 whole months, that way EVERYONE can get their fill of seeing the shiny trains and riding them. If they haven't established a decent ridership at that point, it's safe to say they never will. Plus, with the novelty aspect worn off, it will be easier to kill it and build something else.
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  #2025  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 1:53 AM
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I would love to ride the train if it actually went down to the southside.
+1. Although, I'd probably rather prefer to ride my bike. It would be nice when the weather sucks though to be able to take the train downtown.
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  #2026  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 4:56 AM
ChrisTaz923 ChrisTaz923 is offline
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Did you ride the connector to MLK or to 'downtown'?
From 11th/Trinity to the "Downtown" Station
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  #2027  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 8:16 AM
wwmiv wwmiv is offline
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But why wait 10 years for density to develop somewhere it doesn't currently exist, when we have the densest zip code in the state (78705) that we could be servicing? Ten years would be a horrible waste of money. Even 1 year probably is. They should just make it free for 6 whole months, that way EVERYONE can get their fill of seeing the shiny trains and riding them. If they haven't established a decent ridership at that point, it's safe to say they never will. Plus, with the novelty aspect worn off, it will be easier to kill it and build something else.
Killing it is a bad idea. Yes, it is going to be a tremendous waste of money for a long time. However, the potential is there for good growth. In terms of servicing more dense areas, that is what the 'urban rail' that the city has the intent of developing will do. Let Cap Metro do their own thing in terms of commuter rail and let the city do its own thing with urban rail. In fact, they complement eachother.

Think of this in terms of Portland. I hate to suggest that, considering Portland's supremely more intelligently routed MAX system. They also have the streetcar which serves the equivalent of 78705 (Pearl). Commuters are brought in on the MAX and when the MAX doesn't serve those individuals' needs downtown they use the streetcar. However, the MAX doesn't just END at the edge of downtown like Metrorail, so it isn't a great comparison. In the end I think everything will work out for the best and Cap Metro will be seen as prescient.
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  #2028  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 1:29 PM
paulsjv paulsjv is offline
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I was stopped at the light on Red River, northbound, at 4th st on my early commute home today. At about 4:20, a Red Line train left the 'downtown' station and crossed in front of me.

There were 8 people on it.

Eight.
We should spend millions more on it and expand it to other places that no one wants to go to up the ridership to 16!
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  #2029  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 1:29 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
We should really give this project ten years before we judge. The line is currently not near anything dense. However, there are many opportunities along the line. Plaza Saltillo being redeveloped is one, the Waller Creek plan another, Highland Mall presents an attractive VMU/TOD development opportunity, that Lakeline Mall stop is being planned as a development, the North Burnet area in 20 years could end up being like Buckhead in Atlanta (hopefully). There really are some nice opportunities for this line.

All that said, EIGHT RIDERS!??! That's pitiful.
There isn't any TOD along this line now, nor will there likely ever be.

There IS one development CALLED TOD (Crestview Station) which fails on most of the metrics used to judge it versus "transit-adjacent development". As it doesn't even match the density of the Triangle, achieved without rail, it's laughable.

As for the idea that you can build a rail line from nowhere to nowhere and expect density to fill in around it, let's hear from Christof in Houston:

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There are two lessons to be learned from Main. The first is that the most likely places for more density are the places that are dense already. Activity feeds on activity. We can’t build rail in vacant places and assume it will make them dense. But rail will support more density in places that are already dense. The second is that the growth we’ve seen along Main has been organic. Of the post-2004 projects I mentioned, only Houston Pavilions has received city assistance. Government has provided infrastructure, but growth has come from market demand.
Also, Tri-Rail in South Florida has seen more than a dozen promised TOD projects come and go over the years. Turns out, imagine my surprise, that residential tenants don't, actually, want to pay top dollar to live next to a train that doesn't take them anywhere worth going without having to transfer to a bus at the other end! And, gosh darn it who could have predicted this: commercial tenants don't want to risk spending extra on a location next to a train line where the only people riding it today are people who can't afford cars (because those who could afford cars didn't enjoy the Shuttlebus Experience(tm)).

For those interested on what TOD actually is, I wrote a short post here: http://mdahmus.monkeysystems.com/blo...es/000433.html which links to VTPI's stuff on determining whether something is transit-oriented or just transit-adjacent.
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  #2030  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 1:31 PM
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Originally Posted by H2O View Post
You know, I really don't get this Us and Them attitude you have about Cap Metro. If you are a citizen of Austin, they are also your transit agency. City Council members are also Cap Metro Board members. Just because you do not like them does not mean they aren't your transit agency. You might not be a Republican, but that does not mean you are not a Texan because they dominate the Capitol.
They're taking the 94% of their money they get from the citizens of Austin and delivering a commuter rail line which serves mostly Leander (and Cedar Park), which wastes all the money available for urban rail that might serve Austin, and at the same time makes it politically difficult to deliver said rail.

I think I've been too nice to those guys, if anything.
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  #2031  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2010, 1:34 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
Killing it is a bad idea. Yes, it is going to be a tremendous waste of money for a long time. However, the potential is there for good growth. In terms of servicing more dense areas, that is what the 'urban rail' that the city has the intent of developing will do. Let Cap Metro do their own thing in terms of commuter rail and let the city do its own thing with urban rail. In fact, they complement eachother.
Last I was involved, the city was planning around the Red Line (as an obstacle, really); not planning WITH it. The fact is that in our city, where commuting isn't intolerable for most people and parking isn't super-expensive, a transfer from the Red Line to the city's urban rail line will turn off a large number of people who aren't current transit patrons (slightly less of a turn-off than being forced to ride a shuttle-bus, but still a big drop in potential riders).

There's pretty much one recipe (two subrecipes) for success in post-war US cities with starting rail transit from zero; and they both require direct service (no transfers). Nobody has succeeded with service that starts out requiring heavy transfers; those that have tried have languished and never got a chance to build new lines.

The common recipe: Start in a suburban rail ROW; hit some park-and-rides; run fast. Transition to running in-street as you get close so you can hit major activity centers without transferring. This is what almost everybody did that succeeded.

The other subrecipe: Houston (build all in-street in an area with already very high density and major parking problems - i.e. the medical center; connect to a park-and-ride on one or both ends).

Nobody, and I mean nobody, has ever succeeded with the model we're trying now (commuter rail first). South Florida tried with Tri-Rail - a 'plan' almost identical to the Red Line - slap some trains on some existing track, build some stations, and run shuttle-buses from there. 20 years later, guess how much additional rail is in the ground or even in planning?

Another oldie but goodie by Christof touches on this. You give direct service to your employment centers, or you don't get many riders - period.

Quote:
Think of this in terms of Portland. I hate to suggest that, considering Portland's supremely more intelligently routed MAX system. They also have the streetcar which serves the equivalent of 78705 (Pearl). Commuters are brought in on the MAX and when the MAX doesn't serve those individuals' needs downtown they use the streetcar. However, the MAX doesn't just END at the edge of downtown like Metrorail, so it isn't a great comparison. In the end I think everything will work out for the best and Cap Metro will be seen as prescient.
Portland started with light rail - and, by the way, have recently wasted a ton of money on another commuter line from nowhere to nowhere, so they're not immune to bad decisions either.

But fundamentally, the problem is that the Red Line can effectively prevent urban rail from ever happening for Austin. First, the one really good light rail line that any other city would have started with can now never be built, and as for the city's urban rail proposal; in yesterday's Chronicle we see that not only will Capital Metro be competing for scarce local and federal rail dollars, but their shenanigans with the Red Line are having an impact even now on urban rail:

Quote:
But because they were late to the party, major planning projects initiated by the new executive team are now among the projects most in need of gap financing. Yet Goode called them "a crucial priority." Caught short are the Downtown Austin Plan, the Comprehensive Plan, the Strategic Mobility Plan, and the Austin Urban Rail program.
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  #2032  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2010, 1:23 PM
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Sunset Review highly critical of Capital Metro

Ben Wear's article

Quote:
• The MetroRail project, originally projected to cost $60 million plus about $30 million for the lease-purchase of six rail cars, instead cost $140 million , the report says. And that doesn't include $8 million interest cost on the rail cars. The cause, the report says: poor planning. The agency underestimated the cost of the cars by almost $7 million , spent an additional $12.7 million on a signal system it did not originally plan to install and had to spend another $30.4 million to make it safe to run passenger rail on a freight railroad.

"From the beginning," the report says, "Capital Metro rushed into commuter rail," bringing voters a project "without sufficient planning, or contingency funding."
The report left out the fact that the Feds didn't kick in $45M because Capital Metro lied when they said they were going to seek Federal funding before the election. Other than that, it's pretty much accurate, and blows yet another hole in the side of Capital Metro Red Line apologists all over the city - not that any of them will admit that M1EK was right all this time, of course.
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  #2033  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2010, 3:29 PM
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Concerning the money owed to the city; it seems to me like they should be earning money right now. Bus ridership, from my observations only, appears to be at its highest rate. They need to pay up.
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  #2034  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2010, 5:11 PM
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They clear almost nothing from fares - too many free rides for students, seniors, and way-too-cheap for paratransit. They're not clearing as much as usual in sales taxes now - and they spent down their reserves building rail - which would be OK if it was rail that had the potential to serve the region, instead of being the proving-rail-doesn't-work disaster that delivers its paltry benefits primarily to those who don't even pay Cap Met taxes.
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  #2035  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2010, 12:03 AM
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We've discuss much of what was in this report before.
(1) Metrorail overbudget and poorly planned, (2) Golden parachute for last President, (3) Tax revenues to be shared with Austin, (4) and that I believe having local politicians actively serving other elected positions on CapMetro's board is a major mistake.

I've tried to suggest before that fares only accounting for 10% of revenues is much too small. It's nice to read the Sunset review stating the same thing.....

Quote:
Despite recent fare increases, the agency recovers just 10 percent of the cost of bus service through fares, well below the 18 percent average of comparable transit agencies. A primary reason for that, the report says, is that fully 30 percent of Capital Metro riders pay nothing to ride. The agency staff last year recommended charging 25 cents a ride to seniors and people with disabilities (who ride free now), but the board rejected that proposal.
Yes it is true, almost one third of the passengers you see on CapMetro buses are riding FREE........
If that one third were paying full fares, CapMetro fares recovery would reach 15%. Of course, that isn't going to happen as long as sitting politicians hold a majority of CapMetro's board.

Another severe drain on CapMetro expenses.
Quote:
Because the agency provides bus, van and sedan services for people with disabilities beyond what federal law requires, it spent $28.9 Million last year — more than 20 percent of its bus operations budget — on just 7,000 customers, about 2 percent of its riders.
Some simple math: $28.9 Million/7,000 customers = $4,128.57 per customer each year. Let's take the ridiculous position that each para-transit rider needs a ride twice a day every day of the year.
More simple math: $4,128.57/customer/730 customer trips = $5.65 per trip (that's as low as I can honestly make this figure).
How long has CapMetro provided this service? If only 10 years, that's $289 Million, more than twice what CapMetro spent on Metrorail. But we should realize that para-transit services have probably been around longer than the last 10 years.

Metrorail is projected to have yearly operations & maintenance costs around $6.4 Million, a good 76 percent less than just para-transit annual costs.

Sure, the Metrorail project is now stated to have used $140 Million of CapMetro's reserve. But I suggest much more than $140 Million has been wasted so that one third of its bus riders can ride FREE.

Last edited by electricron; Apr 24, 2010 at 12:18 AM.
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  #2036  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2010, 3:46 AM
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Metrorail is projected to have yearly operations & maintenance costs around $6.4 Million, a good 76 percent less than just para-transit annual costs.
Do you really believe that the 32-mile red line, with it's unfinished train stations and intersections still being worked on, will cost $6.4 million per year to operate and maintain? Be honest.

That number seems like a fantasy to me. If it came from anyplace other than Capital Metro management, I'd be in shock.

Or maybe someone has an example of ANY commuter OR light rail system that has a annual operating and maintenance cost of < $7 million?
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  #2037  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2010, 4:42 AM
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Some simple math: $28.9 Million/7,000 customers = $4,128.57 per customer each year. Let's take the ridiculous position that each para-transit rider needs a ride twice a day every day of the year.
More simple math: $4,128.57/customer/730 customer trips = $5.65 per trip (that's as low as I can honestly make this figure).
How many regular riders does MetroRail have? 500 or so, if that? $6.4 million divided by 500 riders comes out to $12,800 per customer. Even if ridership wrere to grow closer to what CapMetro was predicting, that would be at least 50% more per customer than paratransit.

Cutting what is often the only means of mobility for the disadvantaged to pay for a poorly-planned commuter rail line is not my idea of how CapMetro needs to be fixed.

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Sure, the Metrorail project is now stated to have used $140 Million of CapMetro's reserve. But I suggest much more than $140 Million has been wasted so that one third of its bus riders can ride FREE.
The sets of people who get to ride it for free are more likely to be reliant on it, and to have less money -- and in the case of seniors, this comes after a lifetime of paying taxes into the system. I don't mind paying extra to give them a break.

Could/should fares be raised to levels comparable to other cities, and/or the reduced/free fare benefits be means-tested? Probably, but even at 15% fare recovery you're still heavily affected by fluctuations in tax revenue, and the more you raise the fares the more people who have a choice just go back to their cars (especially if they can pollute and park for FREE).
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  #2038  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2010, 12:39 PM
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The sets of people who get to ride it for free are more likely to be reliant on it, and to have less money -- and in the case of seniors, this comes after a lifetime of paying taxes into the system. I don't mind paying extra to give them a break.
Seems to me that if CapMetro wasn't getting any of our hard earned money and actually had some kind of consequences for making bad decisions, like going out of business. We wouldn't have the horrible commuter line or hardly any of the problems we are having now.
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  #2039  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2010, 7:49 PM
Scott Wood Scott Wood is offline
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Seems to me that if CapMetro wasn't getting any of our hard earned money and actually had some kind of consequences for making bad decisions, like going out of business. We wouldn't have the horrible commuter line or hardly any of the problems we are having now.
You also wouldn't have public transportation (in the age of artificially cheap driving, public transportation systems require public funding, even in places like New York). I don't consider that a reasonable outcome.

Restructuring that public funding might be helpful, though. The funding should be tied to ridership and coverage, not just a flat sales tax that is totally disconnected from performance.
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  #2040  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2010, 11:30 PM
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Restructuring that public funding might be helpful, though. The funding should be tied to ridership and coverage, not just a flat sales tax that is totally disconnected from performance.
The Transportation Code of Texas limits how public transit can be funded. One would have to change State Law first.....
North Texas has tried to change the Stale Law on funding transit agencies the last four sessions of the Legislature. Good luck!

As for tying public funding with performance, you run across scenarios where poor public funding guarantees poor performance. Like Amtrak's poor performance has been tied to poor funding over many decades. Like our ever growing heavily congested urban highways in Texas being poorly financed the last two decades. Texas hasn't raised gas taxes since the early 1990s, when more highway funds have been diverted than what was raised by the increase of the gas tax. TXDOT financing was effectively cut while the taxes supporting it were raised. Politicians do have two faces most of the time and will pull the wool over our eyes at every opportunity.

I'm not against giving DISCOUNTS to the needy, but I'm against giving FREE rides to one third of CapMetro's riders. Not every veteran, just one example presently getting FREE rides, is poor and needy.

CapMetro raises $134 Million last year in tax revenues and $14.45 Million (144.5/10) in fares, and spends $144.5 Million (28.9 x 5) just maintain and run its buses. The only reason it isn't going broke is because CapMetro also receives $42 Million in Federal and State grants each year. Some math:
134 (taxes) + 14.45 (fares) + 42 (grants) - 144.5 (bus O&M) = $46 Million. Take train operations and maintenance and construction fees, and the City of Austin diversions, from that total; that doesn't leave CapMetro much money to build up its reserves or expand bus services.

Last edited by electricron; Apr 26, 2010 at 2:41 AM.
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