July 1, 2020 Population Estimates - United States of America

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Obadno

It’s more structural, the desire is for skilled immigrants. Not refugees and low skilled laborers

All immigration has essentially been frozen, skilled and otherwise. Most U.S. immigrants are skilled.

Anyways, the discussion re. immigration isn't about immigration, it's about a certain someone, and the mods won't allow that discussion.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Crawford

All immigration has essentially been frozen, skilled and otherwise. Most U.S. immigrants are skilled.

Anyways, the discussion re. immigration isn't about immigration, it's about a certain someone, and the mods won't allow that discussion.

That’s my exact point, a certain someone is irrelevant, the reality is the reality fleeting temporary policy is precisely that

[benp]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

I agree with this. Nothing wrong with having less people.

For places already rapidly growing, sure, it may just mean more manageable growth.

For places not growing at all or that have been shrinking, it can be a downward spiral leading to abandonment and decay. Fewer young people to take care of the older people. Fewer people paying taxes. Fewer customers for markets. Etc.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

And that's the problem. Obama numbers are not even that impressive and Biden probably won't pursue them in any case, as we've seen, Trump made advances over the Hispanics despite (or maybe because) it's anti-immigration rhetoric.

So, you have the US politics hostile to immigration; you have the main source of immigrants, Mexico plus Central America, following South America steps and having their own demographic issues as well.

That's why I said, if the US be stuck at those 500k immigrants/year, I think it will be almost impossible to prevent negative growth by the early 2030's.

Biden will absolutely return to the Obama baseline. He's already said he will. That alone is +600k per year in immigration. There's no need for conjecture. He definitely won't muzzle specialized talent visas or refugee/asylum counts either.

So not sure what you mean by "hostile." Nothing suggests that.

Hispanics are notoriously pro-incumbent. They shifted 9 points to Bush in 2004 and Obama got more votes in his 2012 re-election than any President since. I don't consider Trump's gains permanent. Republicans have made this mistake countless times only for the next election to be a wake up call. After 2004's 45% Bush percent among Latinos, Obama won in the high 60%s.

The only Latino constituency that's clearly shifting right-wing are those who convert to evangelicalism. But more Latinos are becoming irreligious than trending toward fundamentalist Christianity.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by benp

For places already rapidly growing, sure, it may just mean more manageable growth.

For places not growing at all or that have been shrinking, it can be a downward spiral leading to abandonment and decay. Fewer young people to take care of the older people. Fewer people paying taxes. Fewer customers for markets. Etc.

If we ever want any chance of rivaling China, we also need more people. Right now China has 4x more people. It's impossible to expect the average American to produce 4x as much as the average Chinese.

Hopefully their demographic collapse accelerates and we can be smart about growth. A USA of 500 million can absolutely maintain parity with a China of 1 billion. Any further divergence and we're another dying former power like the UK or France, who pretend to be important but the writing is clearly on the wall. We won't be held hostage by a people demanding a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

Everyone's treating the death of 69 million Baby Boomers as a demographic catastrophe. I think it'll be the best thing to happen to this country from a national security perspective. We won't be held politically hostage by a people wanting a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

If we ever want any chance of rivaling China, we also need more people. Right now China has 4x more people. It's impossible to expect the average American to produce 4x as much as the average Chinese.

Hopefully their demographic collapse accelerates and we can be smart about growth. A USA of 500 million can absolutely maintain parity with a China of 1 billion. Any further divergence and we're another dying former power like the UK or France, who pretend to be important but the writing is clearly on the wall. We won't be held hostage by a people demanding a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

Everyone's treating the death of 69 million Baby Boomers as a demographic catastrophe. I think it'll be the best thing to happen to this country from a national security perspective. We won't be held politically hostage by a people wanting a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

China's population is also aging rapidly and will begin too drop in a few years. China actually has a worst demographic problem than the US. Their government implemented the one-child policy years ago to lessen population growth but now they are frantically trying to get people to have more babies. And China has never been hospitable to large numbers of immigrants.

[bossabreezes]

I see absolutely nothing wrong with a slowing population growth. Expecting constant growth is not sustainable.

What we need is a country of very high producing individuals, not millions upon millions of low skilled immigrants. Clearly during COVID our Government has shown it's not able to take care of it's own people, let alone letting in everyone who wants to be in the country.

Legal immigration is fine, but Illegal immigration isn't. Unfortunately with the current narrative, we will likely see huge increases in illegal immigration mainly because we've decided that we want to be a lawless state. I'm 100% for a quota system or immigration of skilled immigrants and absolutely no chain immigration.

[ChiSoxRox]

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

Louisiana is in pretty rough shape. Just look at Shreveport, its been declining for years.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by benp

For places already rapidly growing, sure, it may just mean more manageable growth.

For places not growing at all or that have been shrinking, it can be a downward spiral leading to abandonment and decay. Fewer young people to take care of the older people. Fewer people paying taxes. Fewer customers for markets. Etc.

Good point. But with this virus I don't see growth getting any better for the time being.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

Louisiana is a backward state heavily dependent on oil and gas revenue. It has antiquated infrastructure and underfunded public schools and state universities. The two largest cities, Baton Rouge and New Orleans have major violent crime problems. Political corruption is viewed as business as usual by many or most residents. The climate is brutal, especially in coastal areas that are subject to hurricanes and frequent flooding. New Orleans is still structurally quite ossified with an entrenched ruling elite. Local efforts to incubate tech related business activity produce only modest success. Visitors love New Orleans, but those that stick around frequently become disenchanted in short order. There are always exceptions, but I think my observations about the state are rather valid. Louisiana is always trying to get its act together and rarely has much to show for it.

[prokowave]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

There's something off about the estimates, at least for New Orleans, if not the rest of the state. The Census estimates were consistently low following Katrina and the same data used to challenge their estimates is showing decent growth in New Orleans. Occupied housing units rose by 8000 in the city from 2016 to 2020, yet the Census estimated a slight population decline during that period, so something doesn't add up.

I'll admit that the state hasn't been doing so well between the recent oil bust and trade wars (the ports between Baton Rouge and New Orleans do huge business exporting grain to China, for example), but things were looking up until 2020. In New Orleans, we are still seeing plenty of growth with remote working transplants and housing is more expensive than ever, even thought the tourism economy has been kneecapped.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by prokowave

There's something off about the estimates, at least for New Orleans, if not the rest of the state. The Census estimates were consistently low following Katrina and the same data used to challenge their estimates is showing decent growth in New Orleans. Occupied housing units rose by 8000 in the city from 2016 to 2020, yet the Census estimated a slight population decline during that period, so something doesn't add up.

I'll admit that the state hasn't been doing so well between the recent oil bust and trade wars (the ports between Baton Rouge and New Orleans do huge business exporting grain to China, for example), but things were looking up until 2020. In New Orleans, we are still seeing plenty of growth with remote working transplants and housing is more expensive than ever, even thought the tourism economy has been kneecapped.

Sounds a lot like Oklahoma which is still closely tied to the boom and bust nature of the oil & gas industry. Though it has had more success in recent years diversifying its economy to be more like its southern neighbor Texas. The modest growth of the past year (+20k) likely represents the economic diversification in the two main metros of Oklahoma City and Tulsa while the rest of the state is stagnate or in decline outside of college towns and southern counties in the DFW CSA. Of the 4 million people in Oklahoma nearly 2.5 million live in either the OKC or Tulsa metros.

[SIGSEGV]

Not that it would show up in this year's Census, but Louisiana was absolutely hammered this hurricane season.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

If we ever want any chance of rivaling China, we also need more people. Right now China has 4x more people. It's impossible to expect the average American to produce 4x as much as the average Chinese.

Hopefully their demographic collapse accelerates and we can be smart about growth. A USA of 500 million can absolutely maintain parity with a China of 1 billion. Any further divergence and we're another dying former power like the UK or France, who pretend to be important but the writing is clearly on the wall. We won't be held hostage by a people demanding a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

Everyone's treating the death of 69 million Baby Boomers as a demographic catastrophe. I think it'll be the best thing to happen to this country from a national security perspective. We won't be held politically hostage by a people wanting a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

I will bet you 10,000 dollars that china has already peaked

[SpawnOfVulcan]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

Louisiana is just Louisiana. Rich coming from an Alabamian, I know, but at least we have growing cities.

After other forumers have mentioned, look at places like Shreveport. Both time I've visited, it's horribly depressing as are the outskirts of several other cities in the states.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

From afar, Louisiana seems more like a Rust Belt state than Sun Belt.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I will bet you 10,000 dollars that china has already peaked

Mitt Romney?

[SIGSEGV]

Not sure to what extent this matters but:

[bigstick]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

I feel like they've adjusted GA's population upwards every single estimate. Can't wait until the official census numbers are out.

And why do you think that???