HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #2121  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 12:27 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by edale View Post
Except for Dallas, apparently.
Well, Dallas got tens of thousands of everybody, specially Americans.

Net Mexican immigration for the country is close to zero now, from almost 1 million in the good 1990's and 2000's. And if that's case, for Dallas gain, Los Angeles, Chicago, must lose.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BTW, where the 2020 Census numbers?!?!?!?!?!?!
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2122  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 4:16 PM
PHL10's Avatar
PHL10 PHL10 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 1,589
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post

BTW, where the 2020 Census numbers?!?!?!?!?!?!
According to this source, September 30.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/redist...637261879.aspx
__________________
I've been living under a rock.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2123  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 4:35 PM
mhays mhays is online now
Never Dell
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 19,748
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I'm sure metro LA got more than 10,000 immigrants from Mexico, but that doesn't mean it got 10,000 net. Others could have gone back to Mexico, and others still could've moved on to different cities, whether that's Portland, Denver, or Dallas.

Also not everyone crossing the Mexico-US border is Mexican, plenty of them could be making longer treks across Central America.
Over a nine-year period, many would have died too.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2124  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 5:05 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by PHL10 View Post
According to this source, September 30.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/redist...637261879.aspx
That’s horrible. I’m anxious here.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2125  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2021, 11:33 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 6,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I'm sure metro LA got more than 10,000 immigrants from Mexico, but that doesn't mean it got 10,000 net. Others could have gone back to Mexico, and others still could've moved on to different cities, whether that's Portland, Denver, or Dallas.

Also not everyone crossing the Mexico-US border is Mexican, plenty of them could be making longer treks across Central America.
It hasn't been Mexicans really since the 1990's. Mexico is relatively wealthy and stable and on a good trajectory.

Most of the border hoppers are from Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador etc.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2126  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2021, 1:51 PM
eixample eixample is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 439
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
It hasn't been Mexicans really since the 1990's. Mexico is relatively wealthy and stable and on a good trajectory.

Most of the border hoppers are from Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador etc.
I recently read that Mexico's birth rate has dropped to about 2 kids per woman from a much higher number a few decades ago so they are just barely replacing their own population at this point
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2127  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2021, 4:03 PM
mhays mhays is online now
Never Dell
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 19,748
In Mexico, a disproportionate number of women are in the childbearing age range, so they'll grow even if they hit 2.0.

I'm seeing 2.072 btw. It's a big improvement. https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...fertility-rate
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2128  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2021, 1:56 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays View Post
In Mexico, a disproportionate number of women are in the childbearing age range, so they'll grow even if they hit 2.0.

I'm seeing 2.072 btw. It's a big improvement. https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...fertility-rate
Indeed. It usually take 30 years for a country/region starting losing population when it falls below 2.0. Brazil for instance, got there in the mid-2000's and it's posed to decline only in the late 2030's, early 2040's.

Obviously, if TFR reaches extremely low levels, this process speeds up or if the country gets lots of immigrants, keeping population young, natural growth might be positive indefinitely, even with TFR below 2. That's the case of big, attractive metropolises.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2129  
Old Posted May 26, 2021, 9:41 PM
proghousehead proghousehead is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 183
Some official 2020 census numbers for cities and counties released tonight midnight right? Or are these just the estimates?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2130  
Old Posted May 26, 2021, 11:57 PM
ChiSoxRox's Avatar
ChiSoxRox ChiSoxRox is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,489
Quote:
Originally Posted by proghousehead View Post
Some official 2020 census numbers for cities and counties released tonight midnight right? Or are these just the estimates?
Just the 2020 estimates. We won't get 2020 Census numbers for local areas until August.
__________________
Like the pre-war masonry skyscrapers? Then check out my list of the tallest buildings in 1950.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2131  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 12:02 AM
wwmiv wwmiv is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Austin -> San Antonio -> Columbia -> San Antonio -> Chicago -> Austin -> Denver
Posts: 5,272
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
Just the 2020 estimates. We won't get 2020 Census numbers for local areas until August.
Municipalities AND counties, or just counties?
__________________
HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2132  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 1:45 AM
ChiSoxRox's Avatar
ChiSoxRox ChiSoxRox is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,489
Quote:
Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
Municipalities AND counties, or just counties?
The Census Bureau isn't exactly clear:

Quote:
By August 16, 2021: States will receive the data they need to begin redistricting in August. The Census Bureau will also share this information with the public. However, the data will be in a format that requires additional handling and software to extract familiar tables. COVID-19-related delays and prioritizing the delivery of the apportionment results delayed our original redistricting data delivery plan.
__________________
Like the pre-war masonry skyscrapers? Then check out my list of the tallest buildings in 1950.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2133  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 7:16 PM
wwmiv wwmiv is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Austin -> San Antonio -> Columbia -> San Antonio -> Chicago -> Austin -> Denver
Posts: 5,272
https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...estimates.html

1. New York City: 8,253,213 / MSA: #1. 19,124,359
2. Los Angeles: 3,970,219 / MSA: #2. 13,109,903
3. Chicago: 2,677,643 / MSA: #3. 9,406,638
4. Houston: 2,316,120 / MSA: #5. 7,154,478
5. Phoenix: 1,708,127 / MSA: #10. 5,059,909
6. Philadelphia: 1,578,487 / MSA: #8. 6,107,906
7. San Antonio: 1,567,118
8. San Diego: 1,422,420
9. Dallas: 1,393,266 / MSA: #4. 7,694,138 / MSA Division: 5,171,934
10. San Jose: 1,013,616 / CSA: 9,608,006

That is the second YOY decline in estimates from 2018 peak of 1,034,877 for San Jose.

... 11. Austin: 995,484
... 12. Fort Worth: 927,720 / MSA: #4. see above / MSA Division: 2,522,204
... 13. Jacksonville: 920,570

The metropolitan areas for the others are significantly smaller at 3,332,427 (San Diego, #17), 2,590,732 (San Antonio, #24), 2,295,303 (Austin, #29), and 1,971,161 (San Jose, #35). All these are the same rank as prior. A notable shift is that Vegas metro has surpassed Pittsburgh metro, switching numbers 27 and 28. Austin is just behind that, while Nashville metro is poised to overtake San Jose. Jacksonville metro brings up the rear at #39, outgrowing Milwaukee metro: 1,587,892.

As far as city propers, Jacksonville has been outgrown by Fort Worth in the last year. Ha. So many jokes. Austin is poised to overtake San Jose as the most populated tech city, Dallas is poised to leapfrog San Diego, and San Antonio is poised to leapfrog Philadelphia. How long until Houston overtakes Chicago? Until Fort Worth overtakes San Jose? That’s some major advancement for a selection of cities all in one state at the same time.

5 of the 13 American municipalities which are already at or could plausibly soon reach one million are in Texas alone and another 3 are in California (with a smattering of more Texan and Californian cities scattered throughout the list of largest municipalities just beneath that). When metro areas and cities are viewed in composite like above, both California and Texas stand out even more.

Here are the populations of some other major metropolitan areas (up to 13, like I did with cities):

#6. Washington: 6,324,629 / City: #20. 712,816
#7. Miami: 6,173,008 / City: #42. 471,525
#9. Atlanta: 6,087,762 / City: #37. 512,550
#11. Boston: 4,878,211 / City: #21. 691,531
#12. San Francisco: 4,696,902 / City: #17. 866,606 / CSA: 9,608,006
#13. Inland Empire: 4,678,371

These metro areas retain the same rank, but there is some churn for their anchor cities: Indianapolis (#16, 887,756) has grown larger than San Francisco but not Charlotte (#15, 900,350). Atlanta is nipping on the heels of Sacramento (#36, 512,818). No one city in Inland Empire predominates, although Riverside is first among equals (#58, 330,786).

Feel free to add more detail. Seattle, Detroit, Twin Cities, etc.
__________________
HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)

Last edited by wwmiv; May 27, 2021 at 9:55 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2134  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 7:49 PM
dimondpark's Avatar
dimondpark dimondpark is offline
Pay it Forward
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Piedmont, California
Posts: 7,889
This is just estimates, not official census.
__________________

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."-Robert Frost
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2135  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 9:14 PM
ChiSoxRox's Avatar
ChiSoxRox ChiSoxRox is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,489
Quote:
Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
I get that they can't just change methodologies for consistency's sake, but this would be a 90k drop from the 2019 number of 8,342,925. Given that NYS was nearly a million higher than estimates, I think it's safe to say this is quite the underball.
__________________
Like the pre-war masonry skyscrapers? Then check out my list of the tallest buildings in 1950.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2136  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 9:15 PM
SIGSEGV's Avatar
SIGSEGV SIGSEGV is online now
He/his/him. >~<, QED!
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Loop, Chicago
Posts: 5,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
I get that they can't just change methodologies for consistency's sake, but this would be a 90k drop from the 2019 number of 8,342,925. Given that NYS was nearly a million higher than estimates, I think it's safe to say this is quite the underball.
yeah, the responsible thing would be to include a large disclaimer though. Waiting for the negative article from the Trib to drop.
__________________
And here the air that I breathe isn't dead.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2137  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 9:30 PM
Steely Dan's Avatar
Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
devout Pizzatarian
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lincoln Square, Chicago
Posts: 29,634
So the 2020 bureau estimate has Chicago down 17,955 (-0.66%) from it's official 2010 figure of 2,695,598.

Given that the 2020 estimate for IL was low by 225K, if even just 10% of that underestimate was in Chicago, then the city might not have lost any people at all. And considering the city of Chicago is ~21% of IL's population, and considering the CB's awful track record of estimating big messy urban cities, that's not a far-fetched proposition.

Here's to hoping!
__________________
"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.

Last edited by Steely Dan; May 27, 2021 at 10:13 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2138  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 9:38 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 30,551
These estimates are completely meaningless. The estimates only have value in years where there's no enumerated count, which we now have.

Census shouldn't even publish decennial year estimates. It's like posting an election poll after an election.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2139  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 9:41 PM
Steely Dan's Avatar
Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
devout Pizzatarian
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lincoln Square, Chicago
Posts: 29,634
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
These estimates are completely meaningless.
Of course, but given that we now know how wrong the CB was with certain 2020 state estimates, we can use these 2020 city estimates as a baseline to try to make educated guesses about where the actual 2020 figures might end up for these cities
__________________
"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2140  
Old Posted May 27, 2021, 10:00 PM
dimondpark's Avatar
dimondpark dimondpark is offline
Pay it Forward
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Piedmont, California
Posts: 7,889
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
These estimates are completely meaningless. The estimates only have value in years where there's no enumerated count, which we now have.

Census shouldn't even publish decennial year estimates. It's like posting an election poll after an election.
Yeah we know that NYS was shorted by 800,000+ and TX was overestimated by 200,000+ so these numbers are off.
__________________

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."-Robert Frost
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 11:32 PM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.