2010 Census Discussion Thread...

[Don B.]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

Paging Don B...paging Don B...

The Phoenix Metro Area grew by 76,771 people between July 2008 and July 2009. We are now at 4,364,094.

Are you still convinced that growth has stopped...or perhaps even reversed?

I'm happy, but please do keep in mind these are just census estimates. I suspect the actual numbers may be worse, but here's to hoping I'm wrong.

--don

[TonyAnderson]

I don't see how Phoenix and Tucson could ever be a MSA. Perhaps you mean CSA? Even that may be a stretch as they're over 2 hours from eachother - 116 miles.

[mwadswor]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

The amount of money they are wasting on this bewilders me. I got a letter in the mail from Census saying "In the next couple of days, you're going to receive a census survey." Then I got the census survey, and then after I sent it in, I got a postcard asking me to make sure to send it back.

Hmmmmmmm how many dollars were spent by this failing country?

The Secretary of Commerce was on John Stewart the other night. He estimated that the mailers improve response rates 6-12% and every 1% of people who respond to the initial census save the census bureau $85 million because they don't have to be tracked down. By his numbers, at a bare minimum (6 x 85 million) the mailers save the census bureau $510 million. I can't remember the estimated cost of the mailers, but I think it was in the $120 - 130 million dollar range, so they seem worthwhile to me.

[phxbyrd]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

Phxbyrd that was out of left field.

If youre referring to the michael johnson thing, he is black...

He may be black but I'm white. If they just treat everyone badly then I don't see them as having a racial problem. I think the MJ thing is more about him being a powerful retired detective than being black. When I read the story I didn't think race because that's happened to me.

[nickkoto]

Originally Posted by TonyAnderson

I don't see how Phoenix and Tucson could ever be a MSA. Perhaps you mean CSA? Even that may be a stretch as they're over 2 hours from eachother - 116 miles.

As long as there continues to be a 1+ hour drive across a huge swath of barren reservation land to get between the outer fringes of the two areas (and that won't change anytime soon), I don't see how they could ever be combined by any reasonable definition.

[phxbyrd]

The key will be Casa Grande. If it could be come a decent little city with some kind of city center it would go a long way to connect the cities. Consider if it was designed like the city of Scottsdale not in affluence but in layout. It could be generaly low slung and spread out but have a decently dense downtown near a freeway intersection with some mid-rise offices and hotels and row houses.

[Leo the Dog]

Last thing this state needs is more low-slung development sprawling to the horizon.

I guess, I just don't get it. What's the point in even living in a place like Casa Grande, or Arizona City or Coolidge? There is absolutely nothing special nor unique for those places to offer.

There is an abundance of land within the city limits of Phoenix let alone the metro area, why would we want Tucson and Phoenix to merge?

[Vicelord John]

Originally Posted by phxbyrd

He may be black but I'm white. If they just treat everyone badly then I don't see them as having a racial problem. I think the MJ thing is more about him being a powerful retired detective than being black. When I read the story I didn't think race because that's happened to me.

I wanst accusing, i was justifying. He may have been trying to steal from the burning home.

[mwadswor]

Originally Posted by nickkoto

As long as there continues to be a 1+ hour drive across a huge swath of barren reservation land to get between the outer fringes of the two areas (and that won't change anytime soon), I don't see how they could ever be combined by any reasonable definition.

That's really the key. Tucson and Phoenix will never really merge (not that we'd necessarily want that) as long as there is a reservation in between them. Same reason that LA and San Diego will never truly merge: Camp Pendleton. The amount of people living on either side doesn't matter as long as that barrier remains between the two MSAs.

[PHX31]

So how many of you (or how many of the city dorks elsewhere on this site that want their city to be bigger) lie on the census form? I wouldn't put it past some of the more hardcore geeks on this site that do nothing but boast about their city to fill out the census forms saying they have 9 people in their house just to boost their city density numbers.

[HX_Guy]

It does ask you for names of the people living there and even Social Security Number, no?

[mwadswor]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

It does ask you for names of the people living there and even Social Security Number, no?

Names yes, not social security number though. Age and DOB only. They're trying to get as accurate a count as possible and while not asking for SSNs may lead to some fraud, asking for them would lead to a much higher non-response rate. Illegal aliens, to name just one large group, are already wary of taking the census, I can't imagine hardly any of them would respond if SSNs were asked for.

[phxbyrd]

The point of someone living in between Phoenix and Tucson is that people in the same community could conceivably live together but work in both cities. This is especially true if inter-city rail becomes a reality whereby one neighbor works in DT Tucson and one works in Chandler. Scottsdale may be more spread out than Rochester but it's not as bad as some places and has a real downtown which can't be said everywhere in AZ. It wouldn't be a bad planning model for Casa Grande.

[Vicelord John]

Dude, Casa Grande is like 1.25 hours from Tucson. I'm not sure many people would be willing to make that trip to go to work. It's also 45 minutes from Chandler or 1 hour to Phoenix. No thanks.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

Dude, Casa Grande is like 1.25 hours from Tucson. I'm not sure many people would be willing to make that trip to go to work. It's also 45 minutes from Chandler or 1 hour to Phoenix. No thanks.

And thats without traffic at rush hour. Imagine commuting to Phoenix or N. Scottsdale for work, you'd have to leave the house by 7am to get there by 9am. When gas goes back up to the mid $3 range just imagine the expense of the commute alone...Why would anyone want to do this?

[phxbyrd]

When I went to the Accenture Match Play Championship in Marana I was making it there from DT in a hour and a half. I don't go more than 7mph over the limit and there was moderate traffic most of the way. I wasn't much more than a half hour from Tucson from there. Current Amtrak trains go over 90mph so it would be closer to 30 min to Chandler and 45 min to Union Station and plus no traffic.

[mwadswor]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

Dude, Casa Grande is like 1.25 hours from Tucson. I'm not sure many people would be willing to make that trip to go to work. It's also 45 minutes from Chandler or 1 hour to Phoenix. No thanks.

I think they're absolutely nuts, but I do know people who commute more than an hour to work. There are people who live way out in AJ or Queen Creek who work in the north or west valley, or people who live in Buckeye that work in east Mesa.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by phxbyrd

When I went to the Accenture Match Play Championship in Marana I was making it there from DT in a hour and a half. I don't go more than 7mph over the limit and there was moderate traffic most of the way. I wasn't much more than a half hour from Tucson from there. Current Amtrak trains go over 90mph so it would be closer to 30 min to Chandler and 45 min to Union Station and plus no traffic.

According to Google maps, Casa Grande to Phoenix (DT) is 48.2 miles. Estimated travel time 55 minutes or 1 hour 30 minutes in traffic.

CG to N. Scottsdale employment sector 1 hour and 40 minutes in traffic.

If one were to take HSR one day, that is assuming that there is enough employment options near Phoenix Union Station where one could walk to the office from there, if not, they'd have to transfer to a local bus circulator (DASH, unless it is cut from the budget) or LRT. One may have to wait an additional 10 -15 minutes for the next train/bus and then more commute time to the office...we have a long way to go if this is the goal.

I just don't see the point of living there unless one has a job there.

[Vicelord John]

Originally Posted by phxbyrd

When I went to the Accenture Match Play Championship in Marana I was making it there from DT in a hour and a half. I don't go more than 7mph over the limit and there was moderate traffic most of the way. I wasn't much more than a half hour from Tucson from there. Current Amtrak trains go over 90mph so it would be closer to 30 min to Chandler and 45 min to Union Station and plus no traffic.

you realize Gallery at Dove Mountain is 35 minutes from downtown Tucson right? And that's on a good day.

[phxbyrd]

They now play at the Ritz Carlton but anyway my point was I wasn't much more than 1/2 from DT Tucson so it possible to go from city to city in 2 hours and Casa Grande is right in the middle. If a lot of people are going to live in and around there then it might as well be a nice little city and not a really, really big Avondale. How about a DT with mid-rise buildings and a good plan for all of the sprawl they are starting to get there. They other growing communities in Arizona can avoid the problems Phoenix has had.