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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
It'll be interesting to see how this evolves. To be honest, I think once HFR is up and running, the temptation to upgrade that same corridor progressively will outweigh any desire to build a whole new HSR corridor for a few reasons:
1) Funding. It's a lot easier to lobby for and receive piecemeal funding to improve current service than it is to get a massive new funding package just a few years after a major capital investment.
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This is the second most-important reason why I believe that HFR should be built only single-tracked and with all the other constraints which come along with cutting-corners to keep the capital costs down (the most important reason is of course that a lower price tag makes the project much more financeable), but consider the following:
If HFR is single-tracked and not grade-separated, you will reach the capacity limits soon as demand outstrips the capacity offered by the maximum number of trains the system can handle without cascading delays. At that point, your options will be either to upgrade the HFR line with second track and realignments to improve speed etc. or to build a new HSR segment which can be built double-tracked and for much faster speeds. The success demonstrated by HFR will create pressure to take the step further towards HSR, as it won't cost that much more than "fixing" HFR, while providing much bigger benefits.
However, if HFR is already built double-tracked and grade-separated, the incremental benefits which could be achieved with HSR decrease substantially, while the psychological barrier against "abandoning" the HFR corridor (between P'boro and SMTF) will increase with every Dollar you've already "sunk" on that segment.
The problem with building an alignment which is double-tracked, grade-separated and allows speed beyond the magical 110 mph is that it is unlikely to receive an upgrade within the next few decades. Therefore, you should only go that step if it is the final step of your plans for that segment (which in your case seems to be something with a maximum speed beyond 240 km/h)…
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2) Politics. Start planning a new connection between Peterborough and Kingston and there'll be a whole new political fight from other Lakeshore communities asking why they are excluded. And if buy some miracle an entire Lakeshore HSR line comes to fruition, these communities will be asking for the same level of service as Kingston too.
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There simply is no space to fiddle two extra tracks through cities like Belleville, Trenton or Cobourg, but this would be the pre-requisite for receiving full HSR service. The area along the Lakeshore is completely built up starting with Bowmansville, whereas the Havelock Sub doesn't encounter built-up areas until just before the Agincourt Yard...
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3) Demand. Connecting TOM with HFR will see VIA's passenger and demand growth mix change substantially. A lot of passenger growth will be coming from the big metros. And those passengers won't see much benefit in higher fares and longer travel times to hit up a town on 140k.
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Any HSR alignment will need to avoid the Canadian Shield as much as possible and that means getting very close to Kingston, meaning that the marginal cost (in terms of capital cost and travel time) of serving Kingston will be minimal. Have a look at how much south the Ecotrain alignments ventures, as I don’t see any chance that any more Northern HSR alignment could possible pass any environmental assessment process:
Source:
Ecotrain Study, Deliverable 9 (Appendix 1)
Interestingly, the alignment identified in the Ecotrain study passes 5 km north of Kingston, which means that the Kingston station shown in all schedules would be very remote. Personally, I would place the station just north of the 401’s exit at Highway 10 (Division St / Perth Rd), like I’ve shown
in this map 6 years ago:
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I agree that Kingston will gain more prominence with services hubbed there. Not sure, it buys them enough clout to become critical to HSR plans. Especially if Peterborough sees some explosive growth coming out of HFR, which is a realistic possibility. It'll be interesting to see how plans and arguments evolve post-HFR.
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Once HFR is built, I don’t see how you could bypass either city (Peterborough or Kingston) with any HSR alignment…