Differences between SW Ontario vs Eastern Ontario

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

-SW ON has much more manufacturing as part of its economy

Indeed:

Employed in Manufacturing

SW Ontario 15%
Eastern Ontario 5.2%

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Docere

Good point. SW Ontario shares a border with the most heavily populated part of Michigan, while Eastern Ontario shares a border with NYS's very thinly populated North Country.




Yup, SW Ontario has a history of industrial trade unionism and class voting for the "labour party." Windsor today is an NDP stronghold.

Eastern Ontario is the weakest region for the NDP in the province.

In Eastern ON only downtown Ottawa votes NDP only some of the time. Peterborough and Kingston only once in a blue moon. Most of the federal public service employees in Ottawa vote Liberal rather than NDP.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by Docere

The GTA is neither. Traditionally the "L" postal codes were viewed as south-central Ontario (the Toronto area, Niagara, Simcoe County etc.)

Northumberland, Peterborough, Haliburton and the Kawarthas seem to be the transition area between eastern and central Ontario.

How about the southwestern Ontario transition to south-central Ontario transition -- is it basically just split between Hamilton's and Toronto's suburban influence, with Hamilton being where the transition to SW starts?

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by Docere

Some Census data:

Southwestern Ontario

Total population: 2,499,775

Canadian 737,350 29.5%
English 716,030 28.6%
Scottish 535,155 21.4%
Irish 490,295 19.6%
German 418,485 16.7%
French 286,565 11.5%
Dutch 182,435 7.3%
Italian 126,160 5%

Visible minority 310,880 12.4%
South Asian 66,540 2.7%
Black 52,010 2.1%
Chinese 43,115 1.7%
Arab 41,705 1.7%

Aboriginal identity 63,170 2.5%

Eastern Ontario

Canadian 612,320 35.5%
English 426,280 24.7%
Irish 412,745 23.9%
Scottish 387,085 22.4%
French 343,565 19.9%
German 169,220 9.8%
Dutch 75,120 4.4%
Italian 67,170 3.9%

Visible minority 272,045 15.8%
Black 66,295 3.8%
Chinese 46,090 2.7%
South Asian 46,070 2.7%
Arab 42,920 2.5%

Aboriginal identity 63,155 3.7%

Not as ethnically distinctive as I thought. The two regions are very close for a number of demographics that you'd might expect to strongly distinguish the regions (eg. eastern Ontario having more people who see themselves as "Canadian" due to their family histories being there longer). The difference between English, Irish, Scottish and French is also not as stark as they are played out to be.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

In Eastern ON only downtown Ottawa votes NDP only some of the time. Peterborough and Kingston only once in a blue moon. Most of the federal public service employees in Ottawa vote Liberal rather than NDP.

Kingston is quite progressive and seems like the kind of place the NDP could do well in (as well as the Greens). But it's a stronghold for the Liberals both federally and provincially. One thing that unites most Kingstonians however is dislike of right-wing parties. Harris never won in Kingston even as he was winning big provincewide and the federal Liberals have held Kingston since 1988.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Not as ethnically distinctive as I thought. The two regions are very close for a number of demographics that you'd might expect to strongly distinguish the regions (eg. eastern Ontario having more people who see themselves as "Canadian" due to their family histories being there longer). The difference between English, Irish, Scottish and French is also not as stark as they are played out to be.

I don't have time to do the data now, but I bet some of the relatively low distinctiveness in that comparison stems from the dividing line used. I'd guess most of the southern and western parts of Eastern Ontario around Kingston, Belleville, and Peterborough are pretty similar to Southwestern Ontario in ethnic composition.

I'm pretty sure it's in the northern and eastern parts of Eastern Ontario closer to Ottawa and the QC border where it gets distinct.

If that comparison was redone, but instead separated out Ottawa, Renfrew, Lanark, Prescott-Russell, and Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry from the rest of Eastern Ontario, I'd bet that the former would look a lot more distinctive. Probably with much higher Irish, French, and "Canadian" population and a lot less English and German.

[Docere]

Also, Ottawa itself (half of Eastern Ont. roughly) has seen a lot of migration, so while the Irish/French Canadian presence is still notable, the proportion has declined (there were probably a majority in Ottawa pre-WWII) both with recent immigration and with people from other parts of Canada (who may be more "English", "Scottish", "German" etc.) moving to the region.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Docere

Kingston is quite progressive and seems like the kind of place the NDP could do well in (as well as the Greens). But it's a stronghold for the Liberals both federally and provincially. One thing that unites most Kingstonians however is dislike of right-wing parties. Harris never won in Kingston even as he was winning big provincewide and the federal Liberals have held Kingston since 1988.

Liberal vs. NDP is actually based on social class here. There's a large group of white collar upper middle class (and upper class) in Kingston who are almost entirely composed of individuals who have a connection of sorts with the university. As the Queen's community is very much of the "Laurentian elite" sort so to speak, this group finds itself a natural home in the Liberal Party, but historically it can drift to the other parties when they're going through their own "Laurentian elite" phases.. for example during the Clark and Mulroney eras the PC party held Kingston.

The lower-income working class populations are actually pretty solid New Democrats. The north-central part of the city where most of them live tends to have more NDP support; poll by poll maps show much of this area being orange, you see lots of NDP signs there, and the city council candidates elected in the wards covering that area tend to be a lot more likely to be NDP-affiliated than other councillors. The Liberals tend to do well among this group too, though, when they're in their popular phases (for example in the 2015 federal election and in the 2003-2007 provincial elections).

Much of the rest of Kingston's population has much the same balance between Liberal, NDP, and Conservative/PC that you would expect in any other Ontario city It's just that this "Laurentian Elite" population is such a noticeable chunk of the city and so heavily devoted to the Liberals, that when you add the "baseline" Liberal support from the rest of the population, it means the Liberal base is big enough to make it very safe for the Liberals.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Liberal vs. NDP is actually based on social class here. There's a large group of white collar upper middle class (and upper class) in Kingston who are almost entirely composed of individuals who have a connection of sorts with the university. As the Queen's community is very much of the "Laurentian elite" sort so to speak, this group finds itself a natural home in the Liberal Party, but historically it can drift to the other parties when they're going through their own "Laurentian elite" phases.. for example during the Clark and Mulroney eras the PC party held Kingston.

The lower-income working class populations are actually pretty solid New Democrats. The north-central part of the city where most of them live tends to have more NDP support; poll by poll maps show much of this area being orange, you see lots of NDP signs there, and the city council candidates elected in the wards covering that area tend to be a lot more likely to be NDP-affiliated than other councillors. The Liberals tend to do well among this group too, though, when they're in their popular phases (for example in the 2015 federal election and in the 2003-2007 provincial elections).

Much of the rest of Kingston's population has much the same balance between Liberal, NDP, and Conservative/PC that you would expect in any other Ontario city It's just that this "Laurentian Elite" population is such a noticeable chunk of the city and so heavily devoted to the Liberals, that when you add the "baseline" Liberal support from the rest of the population, it means the Liberal base is big enough to make it very safe for the Liberals.

That makes sense. The west end of Kingston is almost like what you'll find in say St. Paul's riding in Toronto or Ottawa's Rockliffe Park: the "too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic.

[Docere]

Flora Macdonald was the reddest of Red Tories, and even she couldn't survive 1988. She spent her last years in Ottawa and voted for Ed Broadbent and Paul Dewar!

[1overcosc]

There's a thought exercise I do from time to time involving an alternate political history scenario.

Before the 1999 election, Ontario used to have separate provincial ridings (as opposed to now where all of Ontario except the north has the same riding maps both provincially and federally) and back then there were more provincial ridings than federal ridings. The last time Ontario drew its own riding borders was in 1986, and in that distribution there was about 1 MPP for every 70,000 people, whereas federally it's around 100,000. If Ontario had kept with its own map, and had grown QP to keep pace with the population like the federal parliament has, Kingston would have eventually grown too big to have just 1 riding, and but too small to have 2 ridings. With the "community of interest" strategy of redistricting that we do in Canada, the likely outcome of this by now would be to have:

-One riding that would consist of the central and northern part of urban Kingston (basically the pre-1998 City borders) and the part of the urban area east of the Cataraqui River.
-One riding that would consist of the west end of Kingston, the rural parts of the city, Frontenac Islands Township, and Loyalist Township.

In this scenario, both ridings would generally go Liberal more often than not but wouldn't be nearly as ultra-safe as the current Kingston riding is; the NDP would have a solid base in the first riding and the PCs would have a solid base in the second riding.

[Capsicum]

Eastern Ontario is more "establishment", SW Ontario more populist (whether that populism takes the form of right populism or NDP-leaning left populism)?

[Capsicum]

Do accent/dialect differences reflect the E/SW Ontario split?

SW Ontario is supposedly more American in influence, or specifically Midwestern. In the general city discussions, I brought up the idea that despite SW Ontario being near the Midwest US, the accents aren't alike at all, and SW Ontarians still share general Canadian features with the rest of the country.

But there were some claims that the Midwestern twang makes it into SW Ontario -- I don't hear it myself though.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I don't have time to do the data now, but I bet some of the relatively low distinctiveness in that comparison stems from the dividing line used. I'd guess most of the southern and western parts of Eastern Ontario around Kingston, Belleville, and Peterborough are pretty similar to Southwestern Ontario in ethnic composition.

I'm pretty sure it's in the northern and eastern parts of Eastern Ontario closer to Ottawa and the QC border where it gets distinct.

If that comparison was redone, but instead separated out Ottawa, Renfrew, Lanark, Prescott-Russell, and Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry from the rest of Eastern Ontario, I'd bet that the former would look a lot more distinctive. Probably with much higher Irish, French, and "Canadian" population and a lot less English and German.

Originally Posted by Docere

Also, Ottawa itself (half of Eastern Ont. roughly) has seen a lot of migration, so while the Irish/French Canadian presence is still notable, the proportion has declined (there were probably a majority in Ottawa pre-WWII) both with recent immigration and with people from other parts of Canada (who may be more "English", "Scottish", "German" etc.) moving to the region.

I'd imagine domestic (both local scale like southern Ontarians from smaller cities, be it in E or SW Ontario, going to Toronto, as well as say GTA students going to uni in the various towns in E and SW Ontario alike, or farther like Canadians moving to Ottawa for federal jobs) and international migration diminishes the E/SW divide.

If a lot of domestic migrants (not immigrants) belong to all those common groups like English, Scottish, German, French, "Canadian" etc. these demographics spread around easily.

Groups like Italians, Aboriginals, Black and Asian visible minorities are not hugely different between SW and E Ontario. Probably because they do not favor one side of the E/SW divide, but reflect spillover or overlap with other regions (whether it's the GTA itself or northern Ontario).

Also, though both are small %'s, Black and Arabs despite their shared cross-border linkage with metro Detroit in SW Ontario, are actually (just a small bit) lower than E Ontario, probably because Ottawa's getting more diverse immigration now.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by Docere

Indeed:

Employed in Manufacturing

SW Ontario 15%
Eastern Ontario 5.2%

How much larger would this difference have been a generation ago... Probably much more.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

I'd imagine domestic (both local scale like southern Ontarians from smaller cities, be it in E or SW Ontario, going to Toronto, as well as say GTA students going to uni in the various towns in E and SW Ontario alike, or farther like Canadians moving to Ottawa for federal jobs) and international migration diminishes the E/SW divide.

If a lot of domestic migrants (not immigrants) belong to all those common groups like English, Scottish, German, French, "Canadian" etc. these demographics spread around easily.

Groups like Italians, Aboriginals, Black and Asian visible minorities are not hugely different between SW and E Ontario. Probably because they do not favor one side of the E/SW divide, but reflect spillover or overlap with other regions (whether it's the GTA itself or northern Ontario).

Also, though both are small %'s, Black and Arabs despite their shared cross-border linkage with metro Detroit in SW Ontario, are actually (just a small bit) lower than E Ontario, probably because Ottawa's getting more diverse immigration now.

Arabs and blacks are the two largest populations in metro Windsor after Caucasian, arabs are 7.4% and blacks are 4.9%. Windsor has one of the highest percentage of arabs in the country! It’s also the 11th most immigrant city in the country at 27.8% immigrant! It’s metro is 22.9%!

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Eastern Ontario is more "establishment", SW Ontario more populist (whether that populism takes the form of right populism or NDP-leaning left populism)?

Well, Ottawa is obviously more "establishment" than anywhere in SW Ontario.

In the rural areas though Renfrew is pretty right-populist (i.e. Cheryl Gallant).

[Docere]

Ottawa makes up a similar proportion of Eastern Ontario's population as KWC + London + Windsor does of SW Ontario.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Not as ethnically distinctive as I thought. The two regions are very close for a number of demographics that you'd might expect to strongly distinguish the regions (eg. eastern Ontario having more people who see themselves as "Canadian" due to their family histories being there longer). The difference between English, Irish, Scottish and French is also not as stark as they are played out to be.

The "Canadian" ethnic origin in E Ontario is probably hiding a lot more "French" origin people than the same category would be in SW Ontario.

[Docere]

Note the difference in the Catholic share (37% in Eastern Ontario, 28% in SW Ontario).