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  #21  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2020, 4:23 PM
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post



Houston is pretty much already falling into the Gulf. Also, Hurricanes are a big threat that will become worse in the near future. Actually, there are two tropical depressions currently tearing across the Atlantic and are projected to head towards Houston. They have potential to be the first powerful and destructive Hurricanes of the season.
Hurricanes have always been a threat but we're no where near the point where people are looking at the long term viability of the region.
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  #22  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2020, 4:24 PM
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These factors aren't about everyone suddenly deciding to leave. They're about influences.

In commercial real estate, the term "headwind" is common. A few degrees of added heat in Phoenix would be a strong headwind. The need to put your house on stilts in Miami would be a headwind, as would the taxes to raise streets a few feet. Or the seawalls around other coastal cities.

Over time, headwinds can act with geologic purpose on the rise and fall of cities, as they always have.
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  #23  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2020, 4:29 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
These factors aren't about everyone suddenly deciding to leave. They're about influences.

In commercial real estate, the term "headwind" is common. A few degrees of added heat in Phoenix would be a strong headwind. The need to put your house on stilts in Miami would be a headwind, as would the taxes to raise streets a few feet. Or the seawalls around other coastal cities.
Phoenix is in the middle of a desert with limited access to water. Miami is a low lying coastal city prone to tropical storms. The 'headwinds' were always there but most people chose to either ignore them or deal with it.
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  #24  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2020, 5:04 PM
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That's not the point at all.

Headwinds can be at varying speeds. The market will react very differently if the headwind is 1 mph, 5 mph, 20 mph...
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  #25  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2020, 5:20 PM
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I would say more inland than up north. If Houston started falling into the gulf, people aren't going to up and move to Detroit or Cleveland, they'll likely head to Austin, San Antonio or Dallas. In fact, this is how Houston got its start, a hurricane wiped Galveston out and industry moved more inland.
Never said everybody is gonna do directly to Detroit and Cleveland, the US is a huge country so people have plenty options. Atlanta is and has already benefited greatly from the hurricanes and disasters on the coast, you'll see more of that. You'll see lots of different inland cities winning.

All Texas cities will be dealing with significant climate change hurdles so they're all still at a disadvantage. Whereas great lakes cities will be the least impacted in the entire country. It's an advantage that will play out over the course of decades.
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  #26  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 12:02 AM
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Did a little research. If all the Greenland, Antarctic and mountain glaciers melted, sea level would rise 230 feet. The surface of Lake Ontario, the lowest Great Lake, is now at 243 feet above sea level. Of course it could take thousands of years or longer for all the glaciers to melt, if at all. But coastal cities could be upended by just a few feet of rise. The Great Lake cities would be just fine.
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  #27  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 1:02 AM
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I hate to be "That guy", but even a mass climate caused migration back to the Midwest/Upper South/NE would simply mean that much more suburban sprawl around Chicagoland, Metro Detroit, et al rather than a refilling of old bones. This is because as long as quality of life isn't addressed within major cities, any "growth" will be in the form of ever more radial sprawl, just in Cleveland instead of Phoenix.

We [urbanists] have a habit of hoping climate change/energy scarcity will somehow "force" a paradigm shift in terms of living habits without realizing humans are crafty creatures, and if cities don't meet their needs we'll find a way to make "sustainable" the status quo by hook or crook.
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  #28  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 1:38 AM
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I doubt there will be a great migration to the Midwest from the coasts, but I think it's possible a combination of push-pull factors, including climate change-induced flooding and related economic issues, could convince more Midwesterners to stay put instead of migrating to the coasts.
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  #29  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 2:01 AM
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I doubt there will be a great migration to the Midwest from the coasts, but I think it's possible a combination of push-pull factors, including climate change-induced flooding and related economic issues, could convince more Midwesterners to stay put instead of migrating to the coasts.
You dont see how literal destruction of the coasts will result in migration from the coasts. LOL okay.

I mean, there already is migration from the coasts to inland states occuring, no climate change needed.
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  #30  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 3:12 AM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
You dont see how literal destruction of the coasts will result in migration from the coasts. LOL okay.

I mean, there already is migration from the coasts to inland states occuring, no climate change needed.
You didn't read closely. I wrote that I doubt there will be a "great migration to the Midwest from the coasts." I did not write that I think there will be no "migration from the coasts."

1. Most all coastal states have inland areas that won't flood, and I think those areas are more likely to draw more residents pushed out of nearby coastal communities than will Midwestern states.

2. After the inland areas of coastal states, I expect the most coastal emigres to continue to move to inland states within the sun belt. The ten fastest-growing inland states in the nation are, in order: Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Numbers nine and ten are in the Midwest, so there's that--but numbers one through eight are outside the Midwest. To me it looks like the inland region most likely to (continue to) grow the most from coastal emigration is the Intermountain West.

But who knows, it's all conjecture.
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  #31  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 3:51 AM
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You didn't read closely. I wrote that I doubt there will be a "great migration to the Midwest from the coasts." I did not write that I think there will be no "migration from the coasts."

1. Most all coastal states have inland areas that won't flood, and I think those areas are more likely to draw more residents pushed out of nearby coastal communities than will Midwestern states.

2. After the inland areas of coastal states, I expect the most coastal emigres to continue to move to inland states within the sun belt. The ten fastest-growing inland states in the nation are, in order: Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Numbers nine and ten are in the Midwest, so there's that--but numbers one through eight are outside the Midwest. To me it looks like the inland region most likely to (continue to) grow the most from coastal emigration is the Intermountain West.

But who knows, it's all conjecture.
But most of the intermountain west still has a water scarcity problem. The Great Lakes don't. As far as sea level rise, wouldn't 4 yards of sea level rise from just the Greenland glaciers melting submerge half of Florida and all of Houston? Most coastal cities, including those with hilly areas, would lose land. Vast parts of west L.A. are just a few feet above sea level. Is a vast system of dikes feasible and affordable?

Last edited by CaliNative; Aug 19, 2020 at 4:09 AM.
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  #32  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 4:54 AM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
You didn't read closely. I wrote that I doubt there will be a "great migration to the Midwest from the coasts." I did not write that I think there will be no "migration from the coasts."

1. Most all coastal states have inland areas that won't flood, and I think those areas are more likely to draw more residents pushed out of nearby coastal communities than will Midwestern states.

2. After the inland areas of coastal states, I expect the most coastal emigres to continue to move to inland states within the sun belt. The ten fastest-growing inland states in the nation are, in order: Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Numbers nine and ten are in the Midwest, so there's that--but numbers one through eight are outside the Midwest. To me it looks like the inland region most likely to (continue to) grow the most from coastal emigration is the Intermountain West.

But who knows, it's all conjecture.

The Central Valley of CA is already way too hot and may get hotter. But, I think for the most part the West Coast will be fine (unless the big one hits) because the coast is mountainous and not that many people really live close to sea level (hell, much of the central valley is lower than much of the bay area!). Also SF Bay can easily be seawalled with a Golden Gate dam.

Northeast cities can also be sewalled relatively easily, given their placement on good harbors and relatively hilly terrain.

The intermountain west can't grow too much more without stressing water supplies, and that will be even more true in the future.
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  #33  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 5:47 AM
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But the intermountain west still has a water scarcity problem.
Fair enough, but look--if we are now talking about a scenario in which the coastal cities are all flooded and Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Idaho and Utah have run out of water, then we're no longer talking about a scenario in which a bunch of middle-class people freely elect to pick up and saunter to whichever Midwestern state each Midwestern forumer is secretly rooting for--in that scenario we're talking about the mass extinction of humanity, nationally and globally.

Quote:
As far as sea level rise, wouldn't 4 yards of sea level rise from just the Greenland glaciers melting submerge half of Florida and all of Houston? Most coastal cities, including those with hilly areas, would lose land. Vast parts of west L.A. are just a few feet above sea level. Is a vast system of dikes feasible and affordable?
Washington, Oregon, California--anything outside the flood zone? Yes. People will move there. Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts? Yes. Rhode Island? Might be a problem. Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania? Plenty of land that won't flood. Delaware might be tough, but Maryland and Virginia will have land above the floods. So will North and South Carolina, and Georgia. Florida is a tough one, but Louisiana and Texas won't be. Nor will most of Mississipi and Alambama. I'm not really sure about Hawaii--there's plenty of high land in certain islands--but Alaska will be just fine.
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  #34  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 3:04 PM
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I would surmise that if the Great Lakes cities undergo a renaissance, it won't just be people from the Sunbelt moving there.

If the economy ramps up, they could begin drawing a much greater share of te country's immigrant intake.

Obviously some immigrants do prefer warmer climes, but in my observation if economic conditions are good they don't care about weather as much as the native-born do.
Yeah, it's the immigration, stupid. There is one Great Lakes city that is proving the point.
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  #35  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 3:17 PM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
...to whichever Midwestern state each Midwestern forumer is secretly rooting for...


you're right. if half the land area of the US becomes uninhabitable people still won't move to the Midwest because it's sooooooooooooo boring. and corn.
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  #36  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 3:26 PM
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Never said everybody is gonna do directly to Detroit and Cleveland, the US is a huge country so people have plenty options. Atlanta is and has already benefited greatly from the hurricanes and disasters on the coast, you'll see more of that. You'll see lots of different inland cities winning.

All Texas cities will be dealing with significant climate change hurdles so they're all still at a disadvantage. Whereas great lakes cities will be the least impacted in the entire country. It's an advantage that will play out over the course of decades.
Considering Florida's population and economic growth, they haven't gotten the message yet.
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  #37  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 3:27 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
You dont see how literal destruction of the coasts will result in migration from the coasts. LOL okay.

I mean, there already is migration from the coasts to inland states occuring, no climate change needed.
Seems like it's still moving towards all 3 coasts.
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Last edited by TexasPlaya; Aug 19, 2020 at 4:07 PM.
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  #38  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 4:00 PM
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Sorry, I don't think someone in Orange County is gonna move to Ohio because it's hot out for a few days. No way in hell.

if they did they would definitely move there over michigan.
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  #39  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 5:07 PM
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It is so hard to predict climate change (prefer this term over global warming). Some models predict after a rise in temp, there being a new ice age that quickly follows (perhaps snow is in the future of Houston and Miami after a period of flooding). Other models have deserts becoming eventual jungles due to weather patterns changing from sea currents changing due to temp changes.

I think people in the west prefer the mountain west over the Midwest (Idaho, Colorado, Utah etc). But if drought and wildfires increase that may change. The west is going thru a brutal heatwave but summers in places like the Central Valley aren't typically that bad--average of 90s with almost no humidity and evenings that dip back down to 60s. This is more than just tolerable for most folks, excluding the fogged in SFers who think anything over 80 might as well be Hades and have a false notion the Valley is over 100 from May-October. Who knows if and how that will change....
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  #40  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 5:44 PM
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Originally Posted by urbanadvocate View Post
have a false notion the Valley is over 100 from May-October. Who knows if and how that will change....
The Central Valley is super hot from May to October, though. Also, the two biggest cities there are pretty crappy, with very little in the way of real urban form. Bakersfield is almost entirely suburban, and Fresno isn't much better. The tradeoff between Coastal CA and the Central Valley isn't just limited to weather.
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