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  #121  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2009, 5:23 PM
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Originally Posted by thistleclub View Post
Seems harsh on the face of it, but (with due respect to those whose lives and livelihoods are impacted by this idling) I'm inclined to agree.
Looked at differently, 1,500 people losing jobs worth, say, $50,000 a year means $75,000,000 in lost income.
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  #122  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2009, 6:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ryan_mcgreal View Post
Looked at differently, 1,500 people losing jobs worth, say, $50,000 a year means $75,000,000 in lost income.
There are any numbers of ways of looking at the job loss. My point wasn't that the affected workers and their immediate households had no value, but that the impact was relative. Particularly to the early '80s recession cutback, which was felt much more acutely across the city. The average age of the affected workers in this economic climate is a unique challenge going forward, and replacing high paying jobs will not be an easy task, but it's a necessary part of evolving as a city of creative professionals. It happened at a grim time but that's probably when it was bound to happen.
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  #123  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2009, 3:15 PM
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Eisenberger wants U.S. Steel meeting
Plans to trave to Pittsburgh for a face-to-face

March 10, 2009
Nicole Macintyre
The Hamilton Spectator
http://www.thespec.com/News/Business/article/527186

Mayor Fred Eisenberger wants to head to Pittsburgh to talk directly with U.S. Steel Canada's bosses.

The mayor's office put in a request last Friday for a high-level meeting to discuss the temporary shutdown on its local operations.

"I take their intentions at face value," he said, noting he does believe they plan to reopen when the economy improves. "But I want some confirmation."

Eisenberger is awaiting a response, but is hopeful a meeting can be arranged in the next week.

Beyond asking for reassurance that the steelmaker doesn't plan to close its local operations, Eisenberger said he also wants to know U.S. Steel's plans for other projects. Just the day before the layoffs were announced, the company told city officials that it was planning to build a $25-million treatment plant to ensure its sewer discharge met city guidelines.

"We want some level of commitment," said the mayor.

He also plans to advocate for laid-off workers who are close to retirement and ask that the company help bridge the gap. Eisenberger said local union representatives raised the issue with him last week.

The city is also moving ahead with its response plan in the wake of the mass layoff.

City manager Chris Murray said senior staff are working on a communication strategy to ensure that any resident who needs help knows where to turn.

The city already offers a range of support services, from employment centres and child-care subsidies to utility and rent arrears programs, he noted. The key will be providing help through "one window," Murray said.

"We want to make sure we give everyone the support they need," agreed Eisenberger.

The city also plans to keep in close contact with Hamilton's social agencies, such as food banks and emergency shelters, so council can lobby upper levels of government for additional funding if needed, Murray added.

Economic development staff are also meeting with more than 400 local company presidents this year to discuss future opportunities.

The finance department is easing up on pursuing back taxes from residents receiving unemployment benefits, and plans to report back soon with a formal policy.
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  #124  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2009, 7:29 PM
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Bad steel news has clean-air upside
Hilton works shutdown means less pollution
March 11, 2009
ERIC McGUINNESS
The Hamilton Spectator
Hamilton can expect cleaner air this year at the expense of steelworkers being laid off or working reduced hours as ArcelorMittal Dofasco scales back production and U.S. Steel Canada idles its whole Hamilton Works.

Clean Air Hamilton chair Brian McCarry says shutdown of the former Stelco Hilton Works is likely to result in air pollution cuts similar to those seen in past strikes at the plant.

While there is no plan for special sampling to document the effects, McCarry says data from an extensive network of pollution monitors in the industrial area will be studied, but not until six to eight months from now.

The McMaster University chemistry professor says sulphur dioxide emissions from burning coal should drop considerably, along with road dust and exhaust from truck traffic as well as fugitive dust from moving coal and ore supplies.

He predicts significant drops in particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, “all the usual critters.”

Denis Corr, a retired Environment Ministry staffer who is in charge of the industry-run Hamilton Air Monitoring Network (HAMN), agrees with McCarry about the expected impact, but also says, “There are no specific plans to look for it.”

Jennifer Hall, speaking for the ministry, notes that Hamilton is one of the most highly monitored airsheds in Ontario, with nine HAMN stations and three used by the ministry to calculate the Air Quality Index.

She says: “We would expect these air quality monitors to detect changes related to a reduction in manufacturing in Hamilton, specifically in particulate (black fallout) and this would be evident in the year-over-year trend data. The HAMN data is reported in Clean Air Hamilton’s annual progress report, which is usually released in June.”

Lynda Lukasik, executive director of Environment Hamilton, suggests homeowners who have been hit by black fallout in recent years pay close attention to what’s happening on their properties this year, to see if there is more or less fallout than usual. She believes the steel-mill shutdowns and production cuts might help officials identify fallout sources.

While black fallout, equipment failures and blast-furnace burps have focused attention on city industries in recent years, overall emissions from those plants is down sharply from past decades. Smog alerts are now most often the result of windborne U.S. emissions added to local pollution from cars and trucks. Hamilton is also downwind of emissions from the huge coal-burning Nanticoke power plant, which helps Ontario Power Generation meet peak demands for electricity.

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  #125  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2009, 8:13 PM
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It will also be interesting to observe whether the mysterious soot deposits the north end experienced continue during the shutdown.
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  #126  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2009, 10:17 PM
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  #127  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2009, 11:04 PM
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Hundreds of Stelco workers fall short of pensions
Steelworkers ask U.S. Steel to bridge the gap for them
March 12, 2009 Naomi Powell
The Hamilton Spectator
(Mar 12, 2009) Hundreds of workers slated to be laid off at the former Stelco are just months short of qualifying for their pensions.
Now union leaders are asking U.S. Steel to bridge these employees so that they can begin collecting their pensions -- rather than rely on Employment Insurance.
"The problem is they called the layoff and these guys are coming up two, three months short," said Bill Ferguson, president of the United Steelworkers union in Lake Erie. "Now they'll be going to the public purse."
The difference between a pension payment and Employment Insurance is significant. Stelco's pension pays out about $2,650 a month. Employment Insurance pays a maximum of $447 a week.
But, to begin collecting a pension, workers must have 30 years of pension credits, acquired through years of active service. At Lake Erie Works, about 50 workers fall just months short of that mark. The number doubles when you add workers who have 30 years of service but are short on pension credits because of layoffs and strike time.
At Hamilton Steel -- where three-quarters of the workforce have more than 25 years of service -- there are about 300 employees in those categories.
"Whenever something like this layoff happens, there are always people on the margins in terms of eligibility," said Anil Verma, a professor at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Business. "There's always a way out but it's a matter of negotiation."
Mayor Fred Eisenberger says he has raised the issue with U.S. Steel.
Company officials were not available to comment.
The decision on whether to bridge workers ultimately lies with the firm that sponsors the plan, said Verma. The cost depends on which bridging method the company chooses. For instance, allowing workers to take their pensions three months early will leave the fund short on three months' worth of worker contributions. Those contributions could be made up by the company, the employee, or both, said Sherman Cheung, a finance professor at McMaster University.
Questions remain about how the steelmaker's pension fund would handle the move. The fund was facing a $1.3-billion pension shortfall when Stelco emerged from bankruptcy protection three years ago.
"Still, I don't see why this couldn't be done, especially if a company wants to reduce its workforce in a humane way," said Cheung.
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Assuming that some sort of bridging program will eventually happen for them (big assumption, but not unreasonable) that also lessens the impact of this plant's closure should it turn permanent
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  #128  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2009, 3:48 PM
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Jobs First Rally
Hamilton Convention Centre
Saturday, March 21, 2009

Doors open at noon
with entertainment by Steve Sinnicks
Rally at 1pm followed by a march.
Bring flags, noisemakers, family & friends

Want to know more?
Rolf Gerstenberger 905-547-1417
Eddie Ste. Marie 416-441-3710 ext 226 estemarie@clc-ctc.ca
Gary Howe 905-547-1417 ext 226 gary.howe@uswa1005.ca
Don Fraser 905-547-2944 hdlc@cogeco.net

http://canadianlabour.ca

Organized by Local 1005, the Canadian Labour Congress and the Hamilton & District Labour Council
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  #129  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2009, 12:32 PM
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This doesn't bode well. I'm still surprised that the provincial/federal governments haven't visibly done more. Nationalisation?

U.S. Steel shipping supplies south

Quote:
Raw materials going to American plants
April 16, 2009
Naomi Powell
The Hamilton Spectator
(Apr 16, 2009)

U.S. Steel is shipping raw materials out of its mothballed Hamilton plant to be turned into steel elsewhere.

The firm has been loading materials onto ships in Hamilton Harbour for delivery to its active plants in Gary, Ind., Pittsburgh, Pa., and Fairfield, Ala.

U.S. Steel concentrated production at those three American sites after temporarily closing plants in Hamilton and Lake Erie Works in Nanticoke.

"Our ongoing efforts to consolidate production includes raw materials and other resources from our temporarily idled facilities," said U.S. Steel spokesperson Courtney Boone, who declined to comment on any specific moves.

All steelmaking was halted at both Lake Erie Works and Hamilton Steel after the last steel coil was finished in Hamilton two weeks ago.

Following layoffs this weekend, about 250 workers will remain in Hamilton, said Rolf Gerstenberger, president of the United Steelworkers union at the plant. The workforce will eventually be reduced to a skeleton crew of 150 people primarily responsible for maintenance and security at the plant.

U.S. Steel is laying off a total of 2,190 employees in Hamilton and Nanticoke.
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  #130  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2009, 1:16 PM
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I have some family involved with the steelworkers union. The general concensus among workers who worked at Hilton Works or were routinely contracted there is that it will never open again.

Nothing official mind you. It's just the guys that work the machinery say it's too old, too dirty, too inefficient to be profitable.
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  #131  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2009, 11:19 AM
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A Stelco-free Steeltown?
Futuristic look at how city would shape up if steelworks pull out

April 24, 2009
Eric McGuinness
The Hamilton Spectator
http://www.thespec.com/News/Local/article/553997

Imagine high-speed passenger trains stopping near Liuna Station en route from New York to Toronto, giving an economic boost to north Hamilton. Then imagine U.S. Steel closing the former Stelco Hilton Works, leaving empty waterfront land the size of downtown Toronto.

What would you do with the 445-hectare brownfield site and its huge buildings linked by a network of railway tracks?

That was the assignment University of Toronto professor Carol Moukheiber gave three Master's students -- one from Hamilton -- in a class on advanced urban design.

Matt Armstrong, who grew up in Stoney Creek and commutes to U of T from downtown Hamilton, stresses it was only an academic exercise. He hopes the steel plant and its hundreds of jobs remain for many years.

For their assignment, they looked to the end of de-industrialization, to the possibility of a new community replacing the steel mills by 2050 or beyond, after vacant downtown lots are filled and development pressure spreads north.

Edward Birnbaum, who worked with Armstrong (their partner, Monica Castro, was unavailable for an interview), said: "It's a huge part of the city Hamiltonians can't see, so the first thing we would do is turn the rail lines into trails so people can walk and bike and see what's there."

They'd keep some of the existing buildings for recreational use, maybe turn others into office space, even housing if possible, though it might take a long time to deal with contaminated soil.

Armstrong said they were inspired by Zollverein Park in Germany, where a former coal mine and coking plant is now a World Heritage Site, and Gas Works Park in Seattle, where a boiler house serves as a picnic shelter and a towering compressor building has become a children's play barn.

To get a sense of the size, they mapped a grid of city streets on the property. The result is hundreds of blocks 90 by 200 metres, typical of north Hamilton. But they say it wouldn't make sense to build just houses. They envision a mix of uses, including new industry and a university campus, with a light rail transit line extending northeast from the proposed line along James Street from the airport to the bay.

Birnbaum says Hamilton should make sure future high-speed trains stop here, not bypass the city like VIA Rail.

While the scenario is purely hypothetical, the team sees it "as an opportunity to re-use industrial buildings and connect the city to a waterfront that has been hidden by smog and wires."

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  #132  
Old Posted May 6, 2009, 4:50 PM
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Globe and Mail Update

May 6, 2009 at 12:00 PM EDT

OTTAWA — Industry Minster Tony Clement is threatening legal action to get U.S. Steel Corp. [X-N] to resume operations in Canada and put hundreds of people back to work.

The Pittsburg-based company's decision in March to idle production at its Hamilton, Ont., factory violates the terms under which U.S. Steel was granted permission to buy Stelco Inc. in 2007, Mr. Clement said in statement Wednesday.

Mr. Clement said that he has sent U.S. Steel a “demand letter,” which represents the first stage in the enforcement process under the Canadian law that governs the sale of Canadian companies to international investors.

“I am concerned by the actions of U.S. Steel in cutting operations in Canada and by the impact this will have on its workers,” Mr. Clement said. “While I recognize that these are challenging economic times, we expect the company to live up to its commitments.”

U.S. Steel is feeling the full brunt of the global recession, and especially the collapse of North American automobile sales. The company last month said sales dropped 47 per cent in the first quarter to $2.75-billion (U.S.), triggering the company's first quarterly loss in five years.

In March, U.S. Steel announced plans to lay off 9,400 workers at two Canadian plants and facilities in Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and Texas.

In Canada, the company shed 1,500 workers.

Courtney Boone, a spokeswoman for U.S. Steel, said jobs will return only when orders pick up.

Ms. Boone didn't have an immediate comment on Mr. Clement's letter.

U.S. Steel's debt lost investment-grade status last month as Moody's Investors Service issued a downgrade, saying the lack of demand for steel will cause persistent losses.

Standard & Poor's, which already had U.S. Steel debt rated as junk, said the company's revenue could decline 50 per cent this year from 2008. U.S. Steel earned revenue of $23.8-billion (U.S.) last year.

Mr. Clement said that's no reason to cut production and shed workers at Stelco.

“I have sent U.S. Steel a demand letter under section 39 of the Investment Canada Act asking the company to comply with its undertakings,” which include commitments related to capital expenditures, research and development and production, Mr. Clement said.

Ottawa can take the U.S. firm to court if it feels the company has not lived up to those undertakings.

According to the Investment Canada Act, the court can direct “the non-Canadian to divest himself of control of the Canadian business on such terms and conditions as the court deems just and reasonable.”

It can also impose fines of $10,000 a day on any company deemed to be in contravention of the act.
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  #133  
Old Posted May 6, 2009, 5:01 PM
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So if people went back to work they'd be manufacturing steel in an economy where there is not enough demand? How does that work Mr. Clement?
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  #134  
Old Posted May 6, 2009, 5:35 PM
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Typical of this Conservative govenment, they are too late to the game. They should have been out in front of this before the idling not doing 'PR' to make themselves look tough after the fact.

If they were out in front of it they could have said to US Steel; "You'll need to find those layoffs at another facility, in another country, because we have this agreement you signed which we intend to enforce to the letter of the law....".

Anyways, $10,000 a day in fines seems to me like less money then they'd lose producing steel with no market in which to sell.
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  #135  
Old Posted May 6, 2009, 6:02 PM
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Too bad that 10,000 a day wouldn't be used for new employment opportunities on that land or the cleanup and repurposing of that land (or a portion of it).

1500 workers is an impact, but not an enormous one. The government has to look ahead -- find new jobs in growing industries for those workers that utilize their skills, look to put new business and new types development on that giant piece of well-situated land -- instead of trying to keep a few jobs that have mostly symbolic importance to "Steeltown" and that half the workers are set to retire soon from anyway.

It somewhat mitigates the pain that these type of jobs used to be what you could just up and get a job at, but since it now takes at least 2 years college education, it's easier to find people who are already headed for college and simply redirect their energy to more relevant fields. It doesn't solve the problem of low-paying jobs being the only ones that hardworking people unable financially or intellectually to go to college can get, but at least this industry being in line with the rest of the world softens the blow somewhat.
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  #136  
Old Posted May 6, 2009, 8:49 PM
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I wonder what the conservative government would do with $10,000 a day if they start collecting? Would they use it to start cleaning up the harbour?
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  #137  
Old Posted May 11, 2009, 3:47 AM
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Ottawa may demand U.S. Steel sell Stelco

Quote:
Clement warns company to honour its pledge to keep production here
May 07, 2009 04:30 AM
Comments on this story (1)
Les Whittington
Ottawa Bureau

OTTAWA–Industry Minister Tony Clement is warning United States Steel Corp. that Ottawa may take legal action against the company over its temporary layoff of Canadian workers.

U.S. Steel must live up to the commitments on production and other business dealings it made when the federal government allowed it to take over Stelco Inc. in 2007, Clement said in a letter to the company yesterday.

In March, U.S. Steel said it was temporarily shutting down most of its production at two large former Stelco operations in Ontario – in Hamilton and Nanticoke – which has left the future of 1,500 employees up in the air.

"I am concerned by the actions of U.S. Steel in cutting operations in Canada and by the impact this will have on its workers, Clement said in the so-called "demand" letter, which is the first step in the enforcement process under the Investment Canada Act that governs foreign acquisitions of Canadian corporations.

"While I recognize that these are challenging economic times, we expect the company to live up to its commitments."

"Yeah, I'm playing hardball," Clement told reporters later. But "they made a choice, they decided to invest in Canada and they decided to purchase those operations in Hamilton, and if you make that choice, you have to live with that choice."

Asked if the U.S. company might be giving priority to production in its American plants, Clement said, "Well, they're still producing steel. They are still in business. They're just not in business in Canada right now despite the contractual undertakings that they signed with the government of Canada."

He said an extra $12 billion in infrastructure projects are being planned in Canada this year. "Those projects are going to need steel, and so I think it's an obvious thing for them to be in business in Canada."

Clement said the government could go as far as trying to nullify U.S. Steel's takeover or asking a court to levy fines on the American steelmaker.

"We have a number of options that are available to us, including unwinding the deal, seeking court penalties of $10,000 per day and seeking a court ruling that would force a rectification of the situation to the deal that was signed," he said.

"What I'm signalling to you is I take these agreements seriously. When you have signed a deal with the Canadian government to invest in Canada, we expect you to honour the deal."

Courtney Boone, U.S. Steel's manager of public affairs, said, "We are reviewing the demand (letter) and will respond in due course."
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  #138  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2009, 9:01 PM
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U.S. Steel recalling 800 workers
Will restart Hamilton coke ovens

June 12, 2009
Naomi Powell
The Hamilton Spectator
http://www.thespec.com/News/BreakingNews/article/582546

U.S. Steel is calling 800 laid off Hamilton employees back to work, breathing some life back into its mothballed Canadian operations, The Spectator has learned.

The Pittsburgh steelmaker will restart its Hamilton coke ovens and begin recalling workers in the coming weeks, said Rolf Gerstenberger, president of Local 1005 of the United Steelworkers union.

There are no plans yet to recall any workers at U.S. Steel’s Lake Erie plant, according to sources with knowledge of the plans. There is also no immediate intention to restart any Canadian operations other than the Hamilton coke ovens.

Though U.S. Steel has declined to comment on the move, sources have raised several possible reasons for the recall.

The Pittsburgh firm is restarting at least part of its Granite City, Ill. steel mill, an operation that has an agreement to receive steam and coke from nearby Gateway Energy & Coke, currently under construction. Until that plant is up and running, the coke produced in Hamilton and Nanticoke may be necessary to supply plants south of the border.

The recall in Hamilton also comes just ahead of an important Canadian deadline for U.S. Steel. Under Ontario’s Employment Standards Act, companies must put aside enough money to offer permanent severance to workers who have been laid off for more than 35 weeks.

Several hundred Hamilton workers will reach that threshold in mid-July. With workers entitled to one week of pay for every year of service (up to 26 weeks), U.S. Steel would be on the hook for roughly $15 million, according to union estimates.

U.S. Steel has also been under pressure from the Canadian government to fulfill a set of commitments it made when it bought the former Stelco in 2007. Those promises included maintaining employment levels and investing $200 million into the steelmaker.
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  #139  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2009, 12:44 AM
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Wow that's good news. Amazing they are coming back before Nanticoke.

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U.S. Steel recalling 800 workers
Will restart Hamilton coke ovens

June 12, 2009
Naomi Powell
The Hamilton Spectator
http://www.thespec.com/News/BreakingNews/article/582546

U.S. Steel is calling 800 laid off Hamilton employees back to work, breathing some life back into its mothballed Canadian operations, The Spectator has learned.

The Pittsburgh steelmaker will restart its Hamilton coke ovens and begin recalling workers in the coming weeks, said Rolf Gerstenberger, president of Local 1005 of the United Steelworkers union.

There are no plans yet to recall any workers at U.S. Steel’s Lake Erie plant, according to sources with knowledge of the plans. There is also no immediate intention to restart any Canadian operations other than the Hamilton coke ovens.

Though U.S. Steel has declined to comment on the move, sources have raised several possible reasons for the recall.

The Pittsburgh firm is restarting at least part of its Granite City, Ill. steel mill, an operation that has an agreement to receive steam and coke from nearby Gateway Energy & Coke, currently under construction. Until that plant is up and running, the coke produced in Hamilton and Nanticoke may be necessary to supply plants south of the border.

The recall in Hamilton also comes just ahead of an important Canadian deadline for U.S. Steel. Under Ontario’s Employment Standards Act, companies must put aside enough money to offer permanent severance to workers who have been laid off for more than 35 weeks.

Several hundred Hamilton workers will reach that threshold in mid-July. With workers entitled to one week of pay for every year of service (up to 26 weeks), U.S. Steel would be on the hook for roughly $15 million, according to union estimates.

U.S. Steel has also been under pressure from the Canadian government to fulfill a set of commitments it made when it bought the former Stelco in 2007. Those promises included maintaining employment levels and investing $200 million into the steelmaker.
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  #140  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2009, 1:09 PM
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From the Spec today:

Quote:
Steel demand up, but for how long?
June 24, 2009
Naomi Powell
NEW YORK (Jun 24, 2009)

ArcelorMittal, parent company of Dofasco, is eyeing a restart of some facilities in the United States in response to an uptick in steel demand, said the firm's chief executive.

Lakshmi Mittal said his company has seen a modest improvement in U.S. markets in recent weeks. ArcelorMittal's plants there have been operating at an average 50 per cent capacity.

But it is unclear whether that increase in demand is sustainable, he cautioned.

Although government stimulus packages have halted the domino effect of financial collapse, "the situation is still precarious and a full recovery will be slow and progressive," Mittal told a packed audience at the Steel Survival Strategies conference in New York.

The issue of when the steel industry might recover from the devastating drop in demand caused by the global recession permeated discussions at the annual gathering of industry executives.

Most agreed a rebound in steel markets will be gradual, with Mittal and others suggesting that strong, stable demand may not return until 2011.
The major question remains where demand will settle when the economy finally recovers.

Though North American mills churned out steel at record rates in 2008, analysts have suggested major restructuring in the automotive sector and other industries means those rates may not return for years, if ever -- raising the possibility of permanent mill closures.

ArcelorMittal -- which closed plants in Chicago and Lackawanna, N.Y., in the wake of the downturn -- is not "permanently shutting" any other plants in North America, Mittal said in an interview.

U.S. Steel CEO John Surma said his firm will make "a bit more steel" in response to improved demand, but noted "what level of demand is sustainable is unclear, particularly with difficulties in the automotive sector and housing markets."

"Does that argue for permanent reductions in capacity?" he said. "While we are studying all aspects of this issue, we're not prepared to do that, at this point."

Demand for steel plunged in the fall, leading many steelmakers to curtail production by idling mills and cutting workers. U.S. Steel temporarily shut the former Stelco plants in Hamilton and Nanticoke. ArcelorMittal Dofasco maintained its permanent staff but slashed production and cut temporary workers.

Overall, ArcelorMittal has found market conditions to be stronger in Canada than in the U.S., said Lou Schorsch, CEO of the firm's flat steel division in the Americas.

"(Dofasco) has a good cost position and it's primarily serving the Canadian market," Schorsch said. "And I think the Canadian economy is operating at a better rate. Steel demand is a little better than you have in the United States."

Surma did not comment on why U.S. Steel recently recalled 800 laid-off workers in Hamilton or whether his firm intends to restart steelmaking at Hamilton Steel.
Union leaders have said the workers were recalled so U.S. Steel can avoid government legislation that would require it to put aside about $15 million in severance pay for workers.

Surma did say the Canadian shutdown was not a response to Buy America legislation that requires all steel used in American infrastructure projects to be made in the United States.

U.S. Steel makes operational decisions "day to day" based on demand, he said.

"We hope to have everything running eventually like we did last summer when everybody was having a much better time of it than we are today," he said.

Just how "real" the current increase in North American demand is remains a matter of debate. Steel customers have been working through existing inventories rather than buying steel. Though that "destocking" is now almost complete, analysts say, the markets for cars and other manufactured goods remain depressed.

And serious questions remain about the long-term prospects of the U.S. auto industry.

Baby boomers are expected to buy fewer cars as they move into retirement, and if successful, the U.S. government's push for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars could lead to a decline in the amount of steel used by the industry.

That could place serious pressure on the steel companies that supply the Detroit Three automakers, said Karlis Kirsis, managing partner of the research firm World Steel Dynamics.

"If the government is successful in moving Americans to small cars, there will be an overcapacity problem," he said. "SUVs consume three times as much steel."

Any major growth in the auto and steel industries is expected to occur in the emerging markets of China and India, not North America, where a return to average consumption rates of 130 million tons a year may not be possible.

"I don't have a crystal ball but I'll tell you the 130 million tons of demand that we've enjoyed for the last several years -- well, it's going to be very many years before that returns," said Keith Earl Busse, CEO of
Indiana-based Steel Dynamics Inc. "I suspect in the future we might well be looking at steel demand that's 110 million tons."
npowell@thespec.com
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