Housing market

[thistleclub]

Canada’s housing market – built on faulty assumptions – is falling down on affordability
(The Globe and Main, Jennifer Keesmat, May 7 2019)

[thistleclub]

Ontario's foreign buyers tax figures are now a mystery — and the finance minister says he doesn't know why
(CBC News, Mike Crawley, May 13 2019)

The Ontario government is no longer publishing statistics about its foreign buyers tax on residential real estate.

Officially called the non-resident speculation tax, the 15 per cent levy was put in place by the Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne in 2017 to try to cool the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area and beyond.

Report says criminal money laundering is driving up Toronto home prices
That government published figures showing nearly 1,400 homes were bought by non-residents in the first 10 months of the tax, generating $172 million for the province.

Those statistics were last published in April 2018. Since Doug Ford's PCs were elected last June, no new figures have been released.

CBC News has requested more recent numbers from the Ministry of Finance twice in the past six months. On both occasions officials replied by email: "There is no further update at this time."

Asked why the foreign buyers tax figures are no longer being made public, Finance Minister Vic Fedeli said he didn't know.

"I'm not aware that there's any changes," Fedeli said. "I'll have a look at where they are being published."

Read it in full here.

[thistleclub]

Realtors call for land registry to crack down on money laundering
(Toronto Star, Marco Chown Oved, May 14 2019)

With billions of dollars in dirty money being laundered through Toronto real estate each year, realtors are questioning why Ontario hasn’t taken action to implement the simple reform that’s chased criminals out of overheated property markets around the world: requiring the real owners of property to identify themselves.

The U.K. and the U.S. have brought in ownership registries to force those who own property via numbered companies and trust funds to reveal their true identities. British Columbia will soon implement one of its own.

Read it in full here.

[thistleclub]

Updated flood plain maps will send the housing market underwater
(CBC News, Neil Macdonald, May 14 2019)

Note to outraged conservative readers: this opinion column was not assigned by Katie Telford. (The only world in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's chief of staff actually assigns journalists is the fever swamp of right-wing conspiracy theories).

No, this column was inspired by the sight of sandbags and portable toilets on the streets of a neighbourhood near the Ottawa River where I very nearly bought a house four years ago. That those negotiations fell through, in retrospect, was a bolt of luck for which I am now profoundly grateful.

I would never consider buying near the river nowadays, for obvious reasons, and my guess is the miserable residents on those sandbagged streets spend a lot of time contemplating both their home values and the next catastrophic flood. There have been two in the last three years. The Ottawa River surged past its banks weeks ago, and is still frighteningly swollen.

It never occurred to me, back in 2015, to check whether the home we tried to buy was at risk of flooding. Being near the river was a plus, not a threat. And even if I had checked, it probably wouldn't have done much good. Flood plain maps in Canada are about 25 years out of date.

But that's about to change. Next year, the federal government will begin uploading nearly 2,000 user-friendly flood plain maps, updating them with the most recent geospatial data. Eventually, entire communities will find themselves publicly identified as at-risk. What that will do to the value of their homes and their flood insurance premiums (assuming they can even get insurance), is obvious.

Read it in full here.

[realcity]

but according to Royal Connaught the housing market is stagnant so they won't build Phase 3. spring 2019???

I actually don't have a problem with Toronto being the money launderers. Look at what happened to Panama.

[thistleclub]

It's a Toronto focus because it's a Toronto paper, but it's basically anywhere in Ontario. Housing is a speculative commodity regardless of location.

If you can't see that pattern playing out in Hamilton, you're not paying attention. It's the city of penny stock.

(Progress or lack thereof on the Connaught's third phase is not necessarily a reflection on the market. How many other new residential towers will need to cast a shadow on that parking lot to make that clear?)

Skyrocketing property prices in Toronto also distort all of Southern Ontario's real estate market.

In any case, you know it's an issue when the real estate industry is urging legislative action aimed at increasing transparency.

[thistleclub]

Courtesy of Hamilton's former City Manager, here's Toronto's Proposed Bill 108 (More Homes, More Choice Act, 2019) and the Housing Supply Action Plan - Preliminary City Comments

… and a related report from Toronto's Chief Planner.

[LikeHamilton]

Hamilton listed as one of the best places in Canada to buy a house in 2019

MoneySense Magazine says the city is the seventh best real estate buy in Canada. In Hamilton, Corktown was listed as the best neighbourhood to buy in.

Hamilton Spectator

Hamilton is one of the best cities in Canada to buy real estate this year, according to MoneySense Magazine.

"Often overshadowed by Toronto to the east and Niagara Falls to the west, Hamilton is a city primed to explode. While prices have certainly appreciated over the last decade, there are still deals to be found in this city with Steeltown roots," the magazine says.

"Now the blue-collar city is experiencing a renaissance. Journalists from across North America consider it a bit of an artists' hub (the Juno Award-winning band Arkells being a prime example of local talent), while house-hunters see the city as an affordable place to own a single-family home, yet still get to and from work with a manageable commute."

Hamilton was listed seventh in a list of 35 Canadian cities. The article said the average house price in Hamilton is $587,300 and said the average annual return on investment over the past five years has been 8 per cent.

For renters, it says rent has gone up 25.6 per cent over the past five years.

Windsor led the list followed by Guelph, Brantford, Victoria, St. Catharines/Niagara and London. Toronto ranked 22nd.

The magazine also argued that the best places to buy in Hamilton are downtown. "Nine of the top 10 Hamilton neighbourhoods in this year's Where to Buy in Real Estate report are downtown. In part, this reflects the demographics and needs of current home buyers — younger professionals who prioritize walking, biking and transit access above a two-car garage."

In the listing, Corktown came first followed by Stinson, Beasley, Hamilton Centre and Crown Point East.

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/9...house-in-2019/

https://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real...l-estate-2019/

[thistleclub]

#7 best city to buy real estate in (Moneysense, 2019), up four spots year over year, and down one spot from its 2017 ranking and down five spots from its 2016 ranking.

#163 best city to reside in (Canada’s Best Places to Live 2018) — down 18 spots year over year, down 101 spots compared to 2016 and 121 spots compared to 2015.

To property speculation — the cause of and solution to all of Hamilton's problems.

[thistleclub]

Interesting nugget via Twitter:

100 year old houses as a percentage of the total: Canadian Cities (2016)

Winnipeg: 9.0%
London: 8.3%
Hamilton: 6.5%
Quebec: 5.2%
Montreal: 4.8%
Toronto: 4.7%
Halifax: 4.0%
Ottawa: 3.7%
St. John’s: 3.5%
Saskatoon: 3%
Regina: 2.8%
Vancouver: 2.6%
Calgary: 1.3%
Edmonton: 0.9%

[thistleclub]

[BaconPoutine]

Focusing on tax rate is pointless on its own because the tax rate needs to be multiplied through the assessed value to determine the actual tax cost.

Notice that the tax rate of each city is generally reversely correlated with home prices. The actual tax cost might be the same between two cities, but if one city has more valuable real estate then the tax rate will be lower even though the average homeowner in both cities pays the same amount in taxes.

Also, this chart shows home prices based on Jun 2019 sales. Sale prices differ significantly from assessed values. And current assessed values across Ontario are based on the 2016 assessment. So the values of June 2019 sales are completely meaningless when it comes to determining the actual current tax burden.

This chart would be far more meaningful if it displayed the tax rate, the 2016 average assessed value, and then the actual tax cost for an average home.


Finally, the tax rate shown for Hamilton is 1.2218% which is the rate for the former City of Hamilton. It ignores the differing tax rates for Dundas, Stoney Creek, Ancaster, Glanbrook, and Flamborough. As well as ignoring the differing tax rates for urban and rural properties. So it's not really reflective of the actual average tax rate at all. I wonder how many other cities also have differ tiers of taxes that are being ignored by this chart?


In conclusion, that chart provides almost no useful information at all in terms of comparing the actual cost of property taxes between cities.

[bigguy1231]

Didn't know where to put this so here it is. We made the top 25 and two of our suburbs are #1 and #2.


https://www.macleans.ca/best-communi...mu9KhDMLKmZxRU

[yomsen]

Well, we now have the fastest rising rent in the country. According to Rentals.ca, average condo and apartment rents in Hamilton rose 24.4% from Oct 2018-Oct 2019.

https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by yomsen

Well, we now have the fastest rising rent in the country. According to Rentals.ca, average condo and apartment rents in Hamilton rose 24.4% from Oct 2018-Oct 2019.

https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

It's getting to the point that if you can scrape up enough for a minimal down payment, you may as well buy instead of rent.

There's a shortage of rental units, but it seems that any new buildings constructed to address the shortage winds up having a very expensive rental price. A family friend is renting a 1-bedroom apartment that opened 7 months ago at King/Centennial for almost $1,800 a month. Not sure how people can pay that kind of rent.

[thistleclub]

CBC News:"Assuming a borrower had a down payment of at least 20 per cent, no other debts to speak of, and earned $100,000 a year… [they] can buy a house worth $597,000."

RAHB: "The average price for residential properties increased by 7.1 per cent from October 2018 to $602,029."

[Berklon]

^ Yea, the average price... you don't have to buy an average property though.
There are plenty of homes and condos that are selling for 550k and less. And a number of condos that are under 400k as well.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by Berklon

^ Yea, the average price... you don't have to buy an average property though.
There are plenty of homes and condos that are selling for 550k and less. And a number of condos that are under 400k as well.

Hamilton's Wards 2 and 3 (what the RAHB classifies as Hamilton Centre) contain the lowest housing prices in the market, the highest concentration of rental apartments (around a third of the city's total supply is located downtown), and the lowest household incomes in the city (around 60% of households make under $50K, and 70% make under $100K). Despite the bargains to be found, I assume that that there are still some barriers to home ownership.

[Berklon]

I'm not saying that buying is always a good idea and that everyone can/should do it instead of renting. I'm saying that as rental prices continue to increase, it will sway an increased amount of people to purchase a home/condo instead.

I know a few people in this boat. They could afford the down payment and have little to no debt, but were scared off from buying a home/condo due to the high mortgage payments. Now they're being scared off from the increased monthly rental - feeling they're throwing their money away instead of building some equity.

[thistleclub]

Agreed that ownership will look increasingly appealing, but it's also something that is becoming unattainable for younger generations, more so in Hamilton which has precarity rates twice the GTHA average.