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  #21  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
"Aspires to"

Do you have any evidence that Toronto has created any policies, marketing or other strategies intended to attract wealthy foreigners into the housing market? Or that these policies have resulted in a high proportion of foreign-owned properties? If so what percentage is it?
it doesn't sound like its driven by the municipality, but by a confluence of global and national factors:

The theory of immigrants and foreign investors driving Canada's property market is about to be tested

https://financialpost.com/real-estat...t-to-be-tested

Quote:
Razia Husein, a Toronto realtor whose clients comprise mostly wealthy foreigners or permanent residents residing abroad, says that she’s had trouble selling downtown condo units that some investors would buy in bulk in a typical year.

“I sell 8 to 10 units, either pre-construction or newly built, to one buyer (in different properties). Some are from India, some are from the United Kingdom, some are from Trinidad. I tell my clients to not put all their eggs in one basket.”

This year, Husein says she’s trying to facilitate sales on the phone, but it’s proving to be difficult. “They need to get on a plane and come and see a unit, or see the area. So I’m just doing a lot of rentals right now, I usually manage these investors’ properties, and find them renters,” she added.
Quote:
Immigrants, for example, owned proportionally fewer single-detached houses than Canadian-born owners in both cities, but in Vancouver, immigrant owners had larger homes in more expensive neighbourhoods. Just 4.95 per cent of single-detached properties were owned by immigrants in Vancouver, while in Toronto that number was 4.71 per cent. In both cities however, immigrants owned more condominium units than Canadian-born owners.
Quote:
“This idea that foreigners are the reason for our housing prices going up, is going to be tested out right now. There are no flights, and so the rich investors that went away for the winter, they’ve not come back. Yet, I see the market for single-detached houses is roaring right now,” said a real estate agent in Toronto whose clients are mostly high networth Iranians.
Quote:
But David Chen, a realtor with the Vancouver-based boutique real estate firm Stilhavn Real Estate Services, whose clients are primarily from mainland China, notes a different trend in the wealthy community of West Vancouver that he attributes to the travel freeze — mansions worth $5 million or more are struggling to be sold because rich foreign investors are not available to go house shopping at the moment.
Quote:
Local builders, according to Chen, build huge mansions for foreign buyers who usually make their purchases in the spring or summer months, but demand has fallen this season.
Quote:
She operates a WeChat account with roughly 500 Chinese parents whose kids are international students in Canada and their primary concerns have been the way in which Canada has responded to the virus.
I can't even imagine the returns that condo builders make in Canada - must be incredible.

"buying condo units in bulk". very interesting

also fascinating that immigrants own more condo units in Toronto and Vancouver than native Canadians! while only 5% of single family homes are owned by immigrants (native Canadians own 95%).
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  #22  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:05 AM
canucklehead2 canucklehead2 is offline
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Yup. It's a huge Dubai-style property bubble but considering how few markets are open like Toronto or Vancouver these days it might take a bit longer to burst... Lets up they get some of these projects up before that happens though! Some of the designs are insane and sweet!
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  #23  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:08 AM
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^^ its true. and , as I said many years ago here, it's not a traditional national bubble, this about global asset allocation and the country benefitting from the new wealth / low borrowing costs / safe haven across the developing world in a somewhat unique way (also see: Australia)

you should really thank the Fed and the ECB
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  #24  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:34 AM
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Everyone owns a piece of Toronto including everyone with a 401k
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  #25  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 5:51 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
"Aspires to"

Do you have any evidence that Toronto has created any policies, marketing or other strategies intended to attract wealthy foreigners into the housing market? Or that these policies have resulted in a high proportion of foreign-owned properties? If so what percentage is it?
Is it really worth responding to?

There are a couple forum members that always talk about Toronto in the same condescending manner. It's 'tall poppy syndrome'. Toronto is to be cut down and put in its place. In the early years, it was easier to dismiss Toronto's rapid ascension as a bubble about to burst or a momentary blip of strong growth. 17 years on (things got rolling in 2003), those people grudgingly have to admit that it's something more substantial. Rather that accept that Toronto is doing a lot of things right/reaping the benefits of hard work they chalk it up to luck. It's now Toronto being the lucky recipient of foreign cash...... or 'aspiring' to be Dubai? We all know that's intended as an insult.

Nauseating as it is, they won't ever accept that the success of Toronto (or Canada) is of our own making. They think (and will always think) that it's all just been handed to us on a silver platter.


Number of 100m+ Buildings Built by Year
2000: 1
2001: 2
2002: 1
2003: 8
2004: 6
2005: 9
2006: 9
2007: 9
2008: 8
2009: 13
2010: 14
2011: 16
2012: 10
2013: 15
2014: 17
2015: 23
2016: 22
2017: 15
2018: 17
2019: 17
2020: 22 so far
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Last edited by isaidso; Oct 14, 2020 at 6:22 AM.
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  #26  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 6:08 AM
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Not to take away from the subject but my neighbourhood in Coquitlam (population 145,000), suburb of Vancouver has just over 50 proposals for highrises, that does not include the dozens of 6 storey developments, there are 3 on my street alone. Within a 2 minute walk of me there are 5 highrises going up, with 3 more proposed within a two block area.

Its pretty insane.

My moms friend who is involved in condo sales or some aspect said that buyers from China would buy 5 or 6 units at a time, but that has slowed down in recent times. I know a friend of mine, had a friend who lived in Hong Kong had bought 5 units in a development in Richmond, this was about 10 years ago and was attempting to sell them but was having problems with that probably because there were just so many other units/developments buyers could buy into.
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Last edited by SpongeG; Oct 14, 2020 at 6:45 AM.
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  #27  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 7:55 AM
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Toronto's lake orientation, with the CBD at the edge, means commutes are necessarily about twice as bad as in a city like Stockholm that radiates 360 degrees from the core.

At 8 million or whatever the metro area population now is, this starts to create anomalies in a city with no substantial belt of prewar midrise density. The towers are a logical outgrowth, and favoured by planners as well.

Here, where the core is rigourously policed in terms of disallowing highrise construction, prices in buildings like the one below can hit USD 1,600/square foot.

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  #28  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 1:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post


I can't even imagine the returns that condo builders make in Canada - must be incredible.

"buying condo units in bulk". very interesting

also fascinating that immigrants own more condo units in Toronto and Vancouver than native Canadians! while only 5% of single family homes are owned by immigrants (native Canadians own 95%).
A significant number of those immigrant-owned condos are occupied by native Canadians though, at least in Toronto. I bet if you surveyed under 30s renting in Downtown Toronto, well over 50% would be living in a rental condo unit, paying their rent with an e-transfer to a personal gmail account as opposed to the A/R department of a management company. One thing that can be definitively said is that there aren't large swaths of unoccupied, foreign investor-owned condos. I'm less concerned about who owns what, because as I said previously, the city has basically just replaced large institutional landlords with thousands of small independent ones.

If the foreign capital dries up, the demand for living spaces is still there and will be satisfied by a more traditional model. It would be a good thing for everyone but condo developers and those whose sense of civic self-worth is built upon how many high-rises are under construction in their city.

I think it's pretty reasonable to separate what Toronto does of its own making and "aspires" to compared to what is largely due to external factors. The demand for centralized, high-density living is pretty organic and a natural product of a very high-growth city with sprawl-curbing policies and a terrible suburban commuting environment. The fact that this demand is satisfied by a non-traditional, mass rental condo model is more largely due to external factors that have pushed capital out of China, and perhaps kept it out of other Western markets.
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  #29  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 2:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suburbanite View Post
A significant number of those immigrant-owned condos are occupied by native Canadians though, at least in Toronto. I bet if you surveyed under 30s renting in Downtown Toronto, well over 50% would be living in a rental condo unit, paying their rent with an e-transfer to a personal gmail account as opposed to the A/R department of a management company. One thing that can be definitively said is that there aren't large swaths of unoccupied, foreign investor-owned condos. I'm less concerned about who owns what, because as I said previously, the city has basically just replaced large institutional landlords with thousands of small independent ones.

Which isn't a great model, either. Amateur investors tend not to make good landlords - especially when Airbnb is generally easier and more lucrative for them. And because they're looking at homes in terms of financial returns and not as a place to live, they'll buy anything regardless of how awkward or undersized or poorly finished the unit is; and so developers will keep pumping out the crap to respond to investor demand rather than the demand of what the actual end user wants (ie. family-sized units, bedrooms with actual windows, etc).

Anecdotal, but just about everyone I know who has ever rented a condo has ended up being evicted sooner or later (ostensibly so the owner can "move in" - in reality, more likely so they can sell it or jack up the rent).
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  #30  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 2:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
Ummm.

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/toront...-north-america

Which City in the U.S. grew faster than Toronto in 2019?

Certainly, Dallas is a close second......
This graph from that article is interesting (and highly relevant):


Wooty woot woot woot for Canadian city centres
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  #31  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 2:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
Ummm.

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/toront...-north-america

Which City in the U.S. grew faster than Toronto in 2019?

Certainly, Dallas is a close second......
This graph from that article is interesting (and highly relevant):


I am sure dc_denizen will claim that all this growth is due to Chinese speculators. He really despises reading anything positive about Canada. Too bad the forum is Canadian-based.
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  #32  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 3:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
Ummm.

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/toront...-north-america

Which City in the U.S. grew faster than Toronto in 2019?

Certainly, Dallas is a close second......
https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/s...ities/1173241/



To save the debate, Toronto is one of the fastest growing cities in North America, if not the fastest depending on definition of metro area.
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  #33  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 3:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C. View Post
https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/s...ities/1173241/



To save the debate, Toronto is one of the fastest growing cities in North America, if not the fastest depending on definition of metro area.
When we're talking about population growth fueling high-rise proposals, exurban metropolitan growth isn't going to be as relevant. Frisco probably doesn't have a residential tower over 15 stories, but the demand for housing is still met.
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  #34  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 3:37 PM
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Canada could be different, but I don't think it's a given that Toronto has significant urban infill because it has significant metropolitan growth. In the U.S. context, there appears to be no such correlation.

Dallas probably has the greatest numeric growth of any major U.S. metro, and its urban core is very weak, with little construction. Chicago probably has the weakest numeric growth of any major U.S. metro, and its urban core is quite strong with lots of newer construction.

Toronto is also a little different in that the share of urban-style higher density construction is as likely to be 10 miles from the core as right downtown. Places like North York and Humber Bay don't really translate to the U.S. context.
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  #35  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 3:53 PM
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yes but usa cities do have or had second or multiple downtowns, which is similar. in some cases within the city and in some in the metro. arlington dc, houston, perimeter center in atlanta, etc. come to mind.
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  #36  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 4:03 PM
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Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
yes but usa cities do have or had second or multiple downtowns, which is similar. in some cases within the city and in some in the metro. arlington dc, houston, perimeter center in atlanta, etc. come to mind.
Yeah, but places like Humber Bay are like rows of 60-floor condo towers replacing suburban motels. It's a whole other level of transformation.
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  #37  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 4:11 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Yeah, but places like Humber Bay are like rows of 60-floor condo towers replacing suburban motels. It's a whole other level of transformation.
yeah i know, but still similar, being away from downtown, if not in scale or purpose. also the amount of suburban areas densifying into walkable communities is not to be trifled with either. its a thing and even suburban people want some of it at least.
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  #38  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 4:40 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
It has so many proposed buildings because the vast majority will get built.

The City has relatively little room for massive infill due to brown fields or dying manufacturing areas so there is no where to go but up.
Actually one of the largest, transformative downtown redevelopments on the planet is underway on the (now former) "brownfields" of the Lower Don Lands (Portlands) - 880 acres and $1.5 to $2 billion just for flood protection (a new river valley among other things), site remediation ... and eventually parks, fish habitats, new communities, bridges, transit etc. (extra billions for that ;-).

And the enormous "beige" fields of the West Donlands (east of the core) has enjoyed a mega-make-over with dozens more new projects underway and still to come. Though not brownfields there other huge downtown make-overs underway like Regent Park, Alexandra park, East Bayfront etc. So the city has done/is doing a lot of work transforming neglected large downtown footprints.

Skyscraper Geek Tangent:

Media reports like “Toronto set to over-take Chicago in Skycrapers” often use the 100 metre or taller “yard” stick, but I personally think a skyscraper is 150 metres or taller... I did a Toronto snapshot using the 150 metric (+/- 1 metre). For the heck of it I added just 25% of the Toronto proposals (24 skyscrapers) to arrive at my informal built-construction forecast:



TORONTO = 119 skyscrapers with 25% of proposals included (using my 150m +/- 1 metre metric)
.
Not including Mississauga ;-)
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  #39  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 5:03 PM
Northern Light Northern Light is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C. View Post
https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/s...ities/1173241/



To save the debate, Toronto is one of the fastest growing cities in North America, if not the fastest depending on definition of metro area.
No debate, the graph is simply wrong.

Its comparing Dallas Metro growth to City of Toronto proper growth. Not apples to apples at all.
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  #40  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2020, 5:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
No debate, the graph is simply wrong.

Its comparing Dallas Metro growth to City of Toronto proper growth. Not apples to apples at all.

No, that's Toronto CMA (no idea if the US numbers are MSA or CSA). It's just that it's a snapshot from a short period in the early-mid 2010s where growth in Toronto was relatively anemic.

By 2019 it's shot back up to the top though:

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