City Revival Thread

[CaliNative]

Water. Great Lakes cities. Proximity to Canada. Buffalo. Rochester. Duluth. Burlington. Even Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee. Go north, young man! On the west coast, Bellingham. The sun belt is just too dang hot and parched in the west. The reverse migration back north could take decades, but It should happen. Any disagreement?

[SIGSEGV]

A sensible immigration policy would probably be faster, but eventually South Florida will have a forced migration (can't build a seawall around Miami).

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

A sensible immigration policy would probably be faster, but eventually South Florida will have a forced migration (can't build a seawall around Miami).

True, sea level rise will be a factor. Coastal northern cities will be impacted, but the Great Lakes cities will not be. We could be looking at 12 feet of rise if the Greenland ice cap melts or significantly shrinks. This could happen in a few generations. So, Denver looks good I guess.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

Water. Great Lakes cities. Proximity to Canada. Buffalo. Rochester. Duluth. Burlington. Even Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee. Go north, young man! On the west coast, Bellingham. The sun belt is just too dang hot and parched in the west. The reverse migration back north could take decades, but It should happen. Any disagreement?

You're forgetting most Americans hate frigid cold. That's why the sunbelt happened. I love Chicago, but I dreaded the winter during October.

The west is suffering in a brutal heat wave, but lets not pretend this crazy level happens all the time. I think it's the hottest stretch in California in 20 years?

[Crawford]

Sorry, I don't think someone in Orange County is gonna move to Ohio because it's hot out for a few days. No way in hell.

[M II A II R II K]

And the sun belt could become the decaying dust belt in the west.

[LA21st]

The midwest summers are stuffy too. Humidity in general is more uncomfortable to most people. Leaving the west summers for the midwest summers ain't exactly an improvement. Maybe at the moment, but it's just a moment. I'll take dry heat any day, even if it sucks right now.

[benp]

My initially dismissive Texas relatives are now in the process of moving up North. I would never have imagined it, I am still amazed. If the economic opportunities are there (they can work from home now) people will follow. There are also a lot of expats who never really wanted to leave in the first place.

[Acajack]

I would surmise that if the Great Lakes cities undergo a renaissance, it won't just be people from the Sunbelt moving there.

If the economy ramps up, they could begin drawing a much greater share of te country's immigrant intake.

Obviously some immigrants do prefer warmer climes, but in my observation if economic conditions are good they don't care about weather as much as the native-born do.

[The North One]

It's pretty obvious that climate change will create a massive migration north, but nobody really knows how it's going to happen. The great lakes cities will benefit definitely.

[bossabreezes]

I actually beg to differ about the seawall around Miami. They say that necessity is the mother of all invention, and humans have been able to destroy and create at pretty much endless lengths.

The Netherlands is below sea level, and so is New Orleans. Granted, Miami sits on a different soil/rock type than those locations which makes sea level contention more difficult than other locations, but I still don't think a metropolitan area of around 6MM people (and growing) will simply throw their hands up and say ''well, looks like we're moving to Orlando.''

Aside from this, I'd love to see some investment in San Juan, Puerto Rico. I don't understand why it's not more popular amongst American investment considering it's part of the country and located on a beautiful island. Hurricanes cause issues, but they do in Florida and most of the southeast and gulf coast, so it's not the main reason why it's declining. It's due to weak local leadership and language barriers.

However, since it's emptying at a rapid pace, it might go the direction of Hawaii and be largely replaced by others from the mainland within the next few decades. Controversial, but arguably a better future than complete stagnation and abandonment.

I'd also love to see a Bakersfield renaissance. I know it's growing, but it has lots of potential to capture coastal Californian refugees and create something of itself.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by M II A II R II K

And the sun belt could become the decaying dust belt in the west.

Probably not, most sunbelt economies are far more diverse and resilient to uncertainties than the Rust Belt was at its peak. My hometown was heavily dependent on manufacturing but was gutted when jobs started moving overseas. It never recovered and the jobs that replaced them were lower level service jobs.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by LA21st

You're forgetting most Americans hate frigid cold. That's why the sunbelt happened. I love Chicago, but I dreaded the winter during October.

The west is suffering in a brutal heat wave, but lets not pretend this crazy level happens all the time. I think it's the hottest stretch in California in 20 years?

I'm already dreading winter and it's August. It will take some of the worst climate change prognostications coming true for the southern/westward migration trends to reverse.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I actually beg to differ about the seawall around Miami. They say that necessity is the mother of all invention, and humans have been able to destroy and create at pretty much endless lengths.

The Netherlands is below sea level, and so is New Orleans. Granted, Miami sits on a different soil/rock type than those locations which makes sea level contention more difficult than other locations, but I still don't think a metropolitan area of around 6MM people (and growing) will simply throw their hands up and say ''well, looks like we're moving to Orlando.''

Aside from this, I'd love to see some investment in San Juan, Puerto Rico. I don't understand why it's not more popular amongst American investment considering it's part of the country and located on a beautiful island. Hurricanes cause issues, but they do in Florida and most of the southeast and gulf coast, so it's not the main reason why it's declining. It's due to weak local leadership and language barriers.

However, since it's emptying at a rapid pace, it might go the direction of Hawaii and be largely replaced by others from the mainland within the next few decades. Controversial, but arguably a better future than complete stagnation and abandonment.

I'd also love to see a Bakersfield renaissance. I know it's growing, but it has lots of potential to capture coastal Californian refugees and create something of itself.

I'm no engineer, but although it seems to me it would be easier to protect Miami, using Miami Beach itself to isolate the bay, I don't think how they could save their beaches if sea levels rise.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I actually beg to differ about the seawall around Miami. They say that necessity is the mother of all invention, and humans have been able to destroy and create at pretty much endless lengths.

The Netherlands is below sea level, and so is New Orleans. Granted, Miami sits on a different soil/rock type than those locations which makes sea level contention more difficult than other locations, but I still don't think a metropolitan area of around 6MM people (and growing) will simply throw their hands up and say ''well, looks like we're moving to Orlando.''

As a former resident of Florida, I imagine there are limits to human ingenuity or at least investment.

New Orleans and the Netherlands were developed from the start with the knowledge that they would have to contend with low sea levels.

Miami doesn’t have adequate drainage, sewage, even drinking water infrastructure for many neighborhoods. There are entire neighborhoods, over 100,000 households that rely on septic tanks right now. Malfunctions contaminate the groundwater that provides the drinking water supply; it also pollutes the nearby rivers and ocean. I don’t know how you pull off storm drainage below sea level in a subtropical environment.The city already relies extensively on canals so as not to flood.

If they try to raise the roads or homes piecemeal, then the raised properties will drain and possibly flood into the neighbor’s lot. If the roads aren’t raised in time, then the road beds and utilities will erode.

The entire city has to be raised and quickly. It’s not going to be a mass evacuation overnight, but a general attrition as flooding and infrastructure failures become annual headaches. And it all has to be done within 40-50 years.

I suspect Miami in the future will become literal islands of wealth surrounded by deteriorating infrastructure in much of the lower income parts of the city.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

I'm no engineer, but although it seems to me it would be easier to protect Miami, using Miami Beach itself to isolate the bay, I don't think how they could save their beaches if sea levels rise.

Most of Florida sits on top of limestone. It’s not the ocean that they’re blocking. The groundwater is going to rise up from beneath the city if the water has nowhere to drain. It’s also subtropical. Think about how long it took to drain New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. You’d have to repeat that after every rainstorm in Florida during the wet season.

There is no solution apart from raising the city.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by The North One

It's pretty obvious that climate change will create a massive migration north, but nobody really knows how it's going to happen. The great lakes cities will benefit definitely.

I would say more inland than up north. If Houston started falling into the gulf, people aren't going to up and move to Detroit or Cleveland, they'll likely head to Austin, San Antonio or Dallas. In fact, this is how Houston got its start, a hurricane wiped Galveston out and industry moved more inland.

[bossabreezes]

galleyfox- all good points. Certainly Miami and all of South Florida are facing significant challenges in the mid-term future, I don't think anyone is negating that.

That aside, I still think that will technological advances and eventually necessity- a lot of the issues listed can be resolved with engineering. It will be extremely expensive and kind of ridiculous, but I don't see Miami underwater in 50 years.

Yuri- beaches are probably the least of Miami's worries at a time where the city is below sea level, but if seawalls are built, there's nothing stopping the creation of artificial & higher sloping beaches along the seawall.

Originally Posted by JManc

I would say more inland than up north. If Houston started falling into the gulf, people aren't going to up and move to Detroit or Cleveland, they'll likely head to Austin, San Antonio or Dallas. In fact, this is how Houston got its start, a hurricane wiped Galveston out and industry moved more inland.

Houston is pretty much already falling into the Gulf. Also, Hurricanes are a big threat that will become worse in the near future. Actually, there are two tropical depressions currently tearing across the Atlantic and are projected to head towards Houston. They have potential to be the first powerful and destructive Hurricanes of the season.

[badrunner]

Desert cities are barely livable now and a couple degrees hotter won't cause people to flee. Low lying coastal cities, both north and south, are far more vulnerable to mass out migration. NYC and Boston are actually more vulnerable to climate change disruptions than Dallas or Phoenix. And if those sun belters do flee the heat, you're more likely to see states like Colorado and Idaho benefit. There won't be some great reverse migration back to the Rust Belt or Northeast.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

galleyfox- all good points. Certainly Miami and all of South Florida are facing significant challenges in the mid-term future, I don't think anyone is negating that.

That aside, I still think that will technological advances and eventually necessity- a lot of the issues listed can be resolved with engineering. It will be extremely expensive and kind of ridiculous, but I don't see Miami underwater in 50 years.
.

If we were discussing a city like Shanghai, I’d be more in agreement, but much of South Florida’s economy is based on having lower tax rates than other parts of the U.S. A big reason my friends and I left Florida after graduation is that there’s not the greatest job market outside of tourism, development and retirement services.

Overall there’s just basic physics involved regarding infrastructure deteriorating faster in water and more equipment and energy needed to keep water out of certain locations. All that on top of a much higher chance of major flooding events that insurance probably won’t cover.