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  #21  
Old Posted Nov 28, 2012, 5:21 PM
thistleclub thistleclub is offline
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A revised Reference Forecast for the City of Hamilton appears in Hemson's Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041* (Nov 2012):

2001: 510,000
2006: 524,000
2011: 540,000
2016: 568,000
2021: 601,000
2026: 640,000
2031: 683,000
2036: 733,000
2041: 778,000

*NOTE: Hemson subsequently issued a Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041, Technical Report Addendum (June 2013).

A complementary but more conservative data set for Hamilton is found in the Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections Update, 2011-2036 (Spring 2012):

2001: 510,100
2006: 523,800
2011: 540,200
2016: 560,100
2021: 580,100
2026: 602,800
2031: 626,800
2036: 651,100
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Last edited by thistleclub; Jun 13, 2016 at 3:23 PM.
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  #22  
Old Posted Nov 28, 2012, 8:00 PM
drpgq drpgq is offline
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With Burlington pretty much built out except for intensification, people looking for new housing are going to have look at Hamilton.
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  #23  
Old Posted Nov 28, 2012, 8:26 PM
thistleclub thistleclub is offline
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Hopefully Hamilton can manage some intensification as well. The city's default development mode, of course, has tended to be suburban.

"On a sub-market basis, between July and September 2012, the City of Hamilton was responsible for all the semi-detached, row and apartment starts. In essence, during the third quarter of 2012, no higher-density construction occurred in Burlington or Grimsby. Within the City of Hamilton, the lion’s share of the third quarter semi-detached and row starts was recorded in Stoney Creek while the new condominium apartments in Ancaster and Flamborough areas accounted for all the apartment starts." (CMHC, Oct 2012)

This is borne out by demographic history.




Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8) ◊
1956: 250,914
1961: 273,991
1966: 298,121
1971: 309,173
1976: 312,005
1981: 306,435
1986: 306,730
1991: 318,500
1996: 322,350
2001: 330,310
2006: 329,845
2011: 330,481

79,567 residents added (32% net growth) 1956-2011
21,308 residents added (7% net growth) 1971-2011

SEGMENTED:

Hamilton, Lower City (Wards 1-5) נ
1956: 200,037
1961: 198,689
1966: 203,627
1971: 207,572
1976: 202,045
1981: 194,537
1986: 189,924
1991: 187,181
1996: 185,118
2001: 186,938
2006: 182,405
2011: 180,246

19,791 residents lost (10% net loss) 1956-2011
27,326 residents lost (13% net loss) 1971-2011

Hamilton Mountain (Wards 6-8) נ
1956: 50,877
1961: 75,302
1966: 94,494
1971: 101,601
1976: 109,960
1981: 111,897
1986: 116,810
1991: 131,318
1996: 137,234
2001: 143,371
2006: 147,440
2011: 150,235

99,358 residents added (195% net growth) 1956-2011
48,634 residents added (48% net growth) 1971-2011




Glanbrook-Stoney Creek (Wards 9-11) ◊
1956: 17,378
1961: 29,738
1966: 34,121
1971: 37,309
1976: 40,475
1981: 46,530
1986: 53,145
1991: 56,695
1996: 64,885
2001: 69,472
2006: 77,570
2011: 87,558

70,180 residents added (404% net growth) 1956-2011
47,083 residents added (116% net growth) 1971-2011

Ancaster (Ward 12) ◊
1956: 9,157
1961: 13,338
1966: 14,960
1971: 15,087
1976: 14,255
1981: 14,425
1986: 17,260
1991: 21,985
1996: 23,403
2001: 25,297
2006: 31,040
2011: 35,120

25,963 residents added (284% net growth) 1956-2011
20,033 residents added (133% net growth) 1971-2011

Dundas (Ward 13) ◊
1956: 10,886
1961: 12,912
1966: 15,501
1971: 18,740
1976: 19,180
1981: 19,585
1986: 20,115
1991: 21,865
1996: 23,125
2001: 24,394
2006: 24,695
2011: 24,907

14,021 residents added (128% net growth) 1956-2011
6,167 residents added (33% net growth) 1971-2011

Flamborough (Wards 14+15) ◊‡
1956: 15,034
1961: 18,202
1966: 20,417
1971: 20,930
1976: 23,580
1981: 24,470
1986: 26,135
1991: 29,615
1996: 34,035
2001: 39,984
2006: 41,410
2011: 41,883

26,849 residents added (176% net growth) 1956-2011
20,953 residents added (100% net growth) 1971-2011



Burlington
1971: 86,125
1976: 104,314
1981: 114,314
1986: 116,673
1991: 129,575
1996: 136,976
2001: 150,836
2006: 164,415
2011: 175,779

89,654 residents added (104% net growth) 1971-2011

Grimsby §
1971: 15,770
1981: 15,797
1991: 18,520
1996: 19,585
2001: 21,297
2006: 23,937
2011: 25,325

9,555 residents added (61% net growth) 1971-2011


FWIW, here's Hemson's Reference Forecast for Region of Halton:

2001: 391,000
2006: 458,000
2011: 520,000
2016: 575,000
2021: 645,000
2026: 726,000
2031: 816,000
2036: 913,000
2041: 1,011,000

SEGMENTED:

Burlington ††
2006: 164,446
2011: 173,761
2016: 175,438
2021: 178,847
2026: 182,034
2031: 186,169



DATA SOURCES:

Hamilton 1956-1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Burlington 1971-2011
§ Grimsby 1981, 1991-2011
† Segmented Hamilton: 1956-1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
†† Burlington Forecast: Halton Region Draft Best Planning Estimates, 2011-2031

‡ Post-2000, ward data fused to reflect pre-amalgamation boundaries
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Last edited by thistleclub; Dec 3, 2015 at 3:51 PM.
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  #24  
Old Posted Nov 29, 2012, 12:15 AM
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I love statistics - thanks for posting.

I remember when Ancaster was a sleepy little rural community. I'm not sure what it is now.
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  #25  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2012, 4:48 AM
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all the growth in suburbs. Wards 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 will continue to lose population like they have for the last 50 years.
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  #26  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2012, 4:52 AM
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I don't think any of those wards have actually lost any population in the last few years. I don't know where you're getting that from.
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  #27  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2012, 12:56 AM
thistleclub thistleclub is offline
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Another past forecast, from GRIDS' Growth Report (May 2006), located in the table Current Trend Population Growth (Urban and Rural), 2006-31...

Urban Area: 2001 Pop’n / 2031 Pop’n / Pop’n Growth

Ancaster: 30,155 / 39,565 / 9,410
Dundas: 24,042 / 24,783 / 741
Flamborough: 39,122 / 54,366 / 15,244
Glanbrook: 13,685 / 34,515 / 20,830
Lower Stoney Creek: 42,028 / 47,354 / 5,326
Upper Stoney Creek: 18,319 / 30,153 / 11,834
Lower Hamilton: 190,184 / 191,081 / 897
Upper Hamilton: 142,682 / 148,442 / 4,562

TOTAL: 500,217 / 569,061 / 68,843


... and a segmented snapshot of Hamilton's population trends, 2001-2011.

Lower City
Ward 01 = 1,836 loss (-5.8%)
Ward 02 = 780 loss (-2.0%)
Ward 03 = 1,779 loss (-4.4%)
Ward 04 = 400 loss (-1.0%)
Ward 05 = 1,897 loss (-4.8%)

Mountain
Ward 06 = 1,280 loss (-3.2%)
Ward 07 = 5,845 growth (+10.4%)
Ward 08 = 2,298 growth (+4.9%)

Suburbs
Ward 09 = 2,630 growth (+10.8%)
Ward 10 = 1,045 loss (-4.3%)
Ward 11 = 16,501 growth (+80.3%)
Ward 12 = 9,823 growth (+38.8%)
Ward 13 = 513 growth (+2.1%)
Ward 14 = 2,312 growth (+15.1%)
Ward 15 = 413 loss (-1.7%)

DATA SOURCES: ◊ Hamilton 2001 & 2011
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Last edited by thistleclub; Sep 4, 2013 at 2:21 PM.
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  #28  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2012, 5:05 AM
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If lower Hamilton grows by only ~900 people over the next generation then we've done something terribly wrong. I'm quite sure we can do better than that.
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  #29  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2012, 6:16 PM
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Originally Posted by pEte fiSt iN Ur fAce View Post
If lower Hamilton grows by only ~900 people over the next generation then we've done something terribly wrong. I'm quite sure we can do better than that.
Easy... have more kids.
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  #30  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2012, 10:26 PM
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Really shows how unrestricted urban sprawl has gone in Hamilton. I think we will see the trend turn the other way in the next 30 years, as the focus is coming back to urban living and we are starting to see Toronto-Hamilton migration picking up.
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  #31  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2013, 4:29 PM
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Related to today's rapid transit conversations in GIC, a population growth takeaway from IBI Group's 2010 HSR Operational Review:

“Population growth in the City of Hamilton is forecast to occur mainly in suburban areas which traditionally have had lower density and limited mixed development patterns such as Flamborough, Stoney Creek and Glanbrook, and to a lesser extent, Ancaster and Dundas. The greatest percentage growth in residential population between 2011 and 2031 will be experienced by the Southeast Mountain Urban Boundary Expansion (UBE) area, should the City decide to complete a comprehensive review and secondary plan for the area. In this area, the population size is expected to more than quadruple between the years 2011 and 2021, and grow 8-fold between 2021 and 2031. It is anticipated that the following areas will also have large increases: in Glanbrook there will be an 87% increase in population between 2011 and 2021 and a 41% increase between 2021 and 2031, and in Flamborough, the growth is expected to be 37% between 2011 and 2021 and 43% between 2021 and 2031. In comparison Lower Hamilton (ie. Downtown and surrounding area) is expected to grow by 5% over the same period, although this could increase significantly if proposed RT serves to stimulate growth as anticipated.”
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  #32  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2015, 4:52 PM
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Hamilton seen as undergoing slower growth through 2016, pronounced gains thereafter in revised forecasts from the Ontario Ministry of Finance’s Ontario Population Projections, 2013–2041 (Fall 2014):

2006: 523,600
2011: 535,600
2016: 558,800
2021: 581,600
2026: 606,400
2031: 631,500
2036: 655,300
2041: 677,600
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  #33  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2016, 9:48 PM
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According to StatsCan numbers released today, Hamilton CMA was Canada’s 20th fastest-growing CMA in 2014/2015 — at 0.8% growth, it lagged just behind the national average and tied with Kingston, Montreal and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge.

The Hamilton CMA’s 2015 population estimate now stands at 771,703, a bump of ~29,000 over the 2011 estimate and ~52,000 above the 2006 estimate.

Going off StatsCan’s data, Ontario’s five fastest-growing CMAs were Oshawa (1.3%), Toronto (1.3%), Barrie (1.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.1%) and Guelph (1.1%).

+

Annual Population Estimates at July 1 for Hamilton (CD):

2006 523,629
2007 524,002
2008 525,599
2009 527,652
2010 531,633
2011 535,602
2012 541,013
2013 545,585
2014 551,751
2015 556,359


SOURCES: 2006-2013 / 2014 / 2015
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Last edited by thistleclub; Feb 17, 2016 at 5:01 AM.
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  #34  
Old Posted Feb 15, 2016, 3:10 AM
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Hamilton CMA growing at a good clip

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  #35  
Old Posted Feb 15, 2016, 9:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
Hamilton CMA growing at a good clip


Is part of that the addition lf Caledonia to the CMA because it surpassed 10,000 residents thus would now be included in the Hamilton CMA?
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  #36  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2016, 3:20 PM
thistleclub thistleclub is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
Hamilton CMA growing at a good clip

POPULATION GROWTH

2001-2015
Hamilton (CD/City) = 66,089 (13.5%)
Hamilton (CMA) = 109,302 (16.5%)

---

2001-2006 [Census]
Hamilton (CD/City) = 33,359
Hamilton (CMA) = 30,510

2006-2011 [Census]
Hamilton (CD/City) = 15,390
Hamilton (CMA) = 28,142

2011-2015 [Estimates]
Hamilton (CD/City) = 20,757
Hamilton (CMA) = 29,205
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Last edited by thistleclub; Feb 16, 2016 at 9:55 PM.
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  #37  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2016, 7:54 PM
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So going forward, will Burlington start contributing a lot less to Hamilton's CMA growth? I was under the impression that single family home building in Burlington was slowing down, but I could be wrong.
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  #38  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2016, 8:26 PM
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Originally Posted by drpgq View Post
So going forward, will Burlington start contributing a lot less to Hamilton's CMA growth? I was under the impression that single family home building in Burlington was slowing down, but I could be wrong.
That what I've heard, though for the next decade or so Flamborough area will probably pick up most of that slack (and certain parts of the East end might too, Stoney Creek to Toronto isn't much farther than Burlington to Toronto).
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  #39  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2016, 4:23 AM
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You do know Hamilton's ENTIRE LOWER CITY IS LOSING POPULATION. Wards, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, are losing and been losing population for 50 years, some more like 1 and 2. It's a Rust Belt thing, similar to Cleveland, Buffalo, Detroit and smaller areas like Erie,Gary, Toledo and Dayton.

Oddly enough Buffalo, Detroit and Cleveland like to claim that healthcare and education are their number one employers. Guess what, they are regional centres like Hamilton is in some regard, and also claim that we are a healthcare and educational centre. Well that's just lovely, they can't move, (Mac, Mohawk, St' Joe's, HHSC) can't move to Texas or Arizona or Mexico, and they don't pay taxes and have every local politician in their pocket (with the exception of Bratina) for the last 25 years. Oh yeah I drove by the so-called Innovation Centre on Longwood, and it looks worse than when Camco was there, nothing has been built... that was promised... nothing but the old Camco Head Office building, and a Federal Building, built by Ottawa for steel materials development, moved from Ottawa, nothing else, it's a piece of shit wasteland with pathetic signs asking for leases, "Will build to suit"> Mac you piece of shit (my almost alma matter) begging for developers on your shit land. Hamilton was better off when Stelco, Dofasco, Camco, National Steel Car, Union Drawn Steel, Samuel Steel, Proctor and Gamble, Westinghouse/GE/Siemans, Firestone, HI Case, Air Liguide, Columbian Chemicals, and the Mafia, were the biggest employers in town.
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  #40  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2016, 6:19 PM
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That what I've heard, though for the next decade or so Flamborough area will probably pick up most of that slack (and certain parts of the East end might too, Stoney Creek to Toronto isn't much farther than Burlington to Toronto).
True, although growth in Flamborough/Waterdown would be counted as in Hamilton and the Hamilton CMA was where I was going.

With regards to the lower city losing population, how true is that over the last couple of years? Haven't vacancy rates in those wards come down significantly?

I do agree on the Innovation Park being a disappointment, although knowing Mac I'm not surprised. The Innovation Factory is in theory a good idea, but the practicality of hiring a bunch of people that aren't engineers and having them advice on startups is a recipe for failure. Plus if I recall early on they were only interested in companies that could patent stuff, which I thought was a little weird. Although considering who they hired that was not surprising.

The other problem for the Innovation Park is that smaller companies are likely to eschew paying their high rents and go somewhere downtown like Weever did. Basically walking the halls there is Fluid Media for private sector and then a horde of space that has the tenants have some public sector connection.
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