AUSTIN | Projects & Construction III

[BG918]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

Crazy growth. Can’t build fast enough. Cash offers for 10% over asking.

In regard to density Austin will be denser simply due to the demand for downtown living. Many more residential towers in downtown. The underlying dynamics are different here. You have a lake and parks and soco all in the center. Then u have terrible highway traffic infrastructure that limits mobility. Then u have Nimbys limiting development outside downtown. It creates an island effect like Honolulu or SF. At least for downtown.

The burbs are exploding like Dallas / Houston.

I recently had a company offer me a job based in Austin but the crazy real estate situation made me turn it down. I probably would've done it a couple years ago. I also didn't want to live in some far-flung suburb.

[The Best Forumer]

Originally Posted by BG918

I recently had a company offer me a job based in Austin but the crazy real estate situation made me turn it down. I probably would've done it a couple years ago. I also didn't want to live in some far-flung suburb.

what kind of company/offer?

[AviationGuy]

Things seem totally out of control with real estate prices. A year ago I had a realtor do an analysis of my property, which is just a 1400 sq ft, 55 year old house in the city. At that time he estimated the market value at $525K. Last week he updated it to $675K, and one week later $722K. I think it's because of the bidding wars where people are offering cash just to get into a house, and at ridiculous prices. This is a comfortable, friendly neighborhood and not extravagant at all. Yet some of the larger homes, including on my street, are currently estimated to have a market value of $1.5-2.0M. My realtor friend said that there's very little inventory in the city, so people who can, will pay just about anything whenever a property comes on the market (often without there ever being a "for sale" sign). It's making a lot of us in the city rather wealthy on paper, but not in reality, because the property taxes and cost of living here are killing us. For me, the expenses of maintaining this old house are a huge burden. At some point, we'll be forced out like the minority community in East Austin was forced out. I can see myself being forced out in a year or two, and I honestly don't know what I'm going to do, because anywhere I would want to live is in the same situation.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by BG918

I recently had a company offer me a job based in Austin but the crazy real estate situation made me turn it down. I probably would've done it a couple years ago. I also didn't want to live in some far-flung suburb.

People have been doubling and tripling up more and more here. The house next door to me went on the rental market, and three guys (professionals) moved in together and split the rent. So they ended up in a pretty nice house in a friendly neighborhood for an affordable rent for each of them. The thing is, you have to be tolerant of having housemates, and a lot of people are not.

[Nautica]

I moved from the Bay area to Lakeway, an Austin suburb, 5 years ago. I paid $430k for my 3000sf home and just received a realtors appraisal for $800k. I turned them down.

[The ATX]

It looks like site prep may have started Friday on the 52-story Travis residential tower. A couple of excavators started working the site Friday. View from the Quincy Tower construction webcam:


https://app.oxblue.com/open/endeavor/redrivertower

[bossabreezes]

In regards to Aviationguys post, as a general point, I don't understand why the housing market seems like its not keeping up with the demand. Texas is a pro-business and not NIMBY place in general. I'm guessing some places in Austin are more NIMBY, but I don't understand how the market isn't meeting needs in the suburbs.

Shouldn't it be solid, house to house development from downtown Austin to Route 130 in the east? It seems strange that there isn't development moving eastward from downtown- seems that the sprawl is mainly occurring northward towards Georgetown or southwards towards San Marcos. Seems strangely lopsided especially since there is no geographic growth hinderance moving east from downtown.

I'm basing this off of Google Maps satellite images, which could be outdated. Either way I would have expected more development based upon what I'm hearing about Austin housing.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

In regards to Aviationguys post, as a general point, I don't understand why the housing market seems like its not keeping up with the demand. Texas is a pro-business and not NIMBY place in general. I'm guessing some places in Austin are more NIMBY, but I don't understand how the market isn't meeting needs in the suburbs.

Shouldn't it be solid, house to house development from downtown Austin to Route 130 in the east? It seems strange that there isn't development moving eastward from downtown- seems that the sprawl is mainly occurring northward towards Georgetown or southwards towards San Marcos. Seems strangely lopsided especially since there is no geographic growth hinderance moving east from downtown.

I'm basing this off of Google Maps satellite images, which could be outdated. Either way I would have expected more development based upon what I'm hearing about Austin housing.

That would make sense and certainly would provide more affordable housing. Similar to how the somewhat affordable housing in the Denver metro is toward the less desirable eastern Plains. Maybe some of the Austin forumers can explain it? There a lot of companies and jobs going to Austin but if people can’t find or afford a place to live it will curtail that really quick. I mean I’m anecdotal evidence of that in that I turned down a good job offer due to the current real estate situation.

[427MM]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I don't understand why the housing market seems like its not keeping up with the demand. Texas is a pro-business and not NIMBY place in general. I'm guessing some places in Austin are more NIMBY, but I don't understand how the market isn't meeting needs in the suburbs.

Austin’s land use code is from 1984… It is all about replacing greenfields and forests with auto-centric development, horrible at allowing for high-demand infill development (with a few exceptions). And that’s exactly the way our Housing Opposition Groups want to keep it. We were a few weeks away from replacing our antiquated code with a new one in early 2020 when a NIMBY-led lawsuit found a NIMBY-curious judge and threw the whole thing into the courts. HB 2989 could fix all of this but the HOGs have hired two lobbyists to kill it. We need more attention to stymie NIMBYism at every level of government as things only get worse from here.

[The ATX]

Without Googling the exact number, a local TV station recently reported that some 40K+ homes and apartments were built during 2020. Apparently the population growth has accelerated. The census probably won't reflect it until the first annual estimate after the 2020 census is published. Elon Musk is also apparently worried about where his 10K Tesla and SpaceX factory workers will live.

[H2O]

Pretty much all the land along SH-130 has been in play for a decade or more since the tollroad was first being built. It takes a long time to entitle, service, and build though. The environmental constraints don't help. Much of the area is in floodplain and the soils are terrible heavy clay.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by H2O

Pretty much all the land along SH-130 has been in play for a decade or more since the tollroad was first being built. It takes a long time to entitle, service, and build though. The environmental constraints don't help. Much of the area is in floodplain and the soils are terrible heavy clay.

The fact that the toll road is very expensive to use to a lot of people, also slowed down development IMO.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

In regards to Aviationguys post, as a general point, I don't understand why the housing market seems like its not keeping up with the demand. Texas is a pro-business and not NIMBY place in general. I'm guessing some places in Austin are more NIMBY, but I don't understand how the market isn't meeting needs in the suburbs.

Shouldn't it be solid, house to house development from downtown Austin to Route 130 in the east? It seems strange that there isn't development moving eastward from downtown- seems that the sprawl is mainly occurring northward towards Georgetown or southwards towards San Marcos. Seems strangely lopsided especially since there is no geographic growth hinderance moving east from downtown.

That's the next great frontier, it's already booming in far Northeast austin near 45/130 and it will continue to fill in. It looks like North Dallas out there with the rolling hills and praire-ish landscape.

There's a large landfill in that no man's land of "central, east austin" inside the 130 loop along with large swaths of land set aside for the Colorado River and Walter Long Park . Then you have an airport and another landfill in
the southeast side of the metro that makes it less desirable. East austin has always been pretty rural/agricultural and "un-austinish" and growth mostly followed everywhere but east.

It took about a decade, but 130 is seeing a lot of growth now.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by H2O

Pretty much all the land along SH-130 has been in play for a decade or more since the tollroad was first being built. It takes a long time to entitle, service, and build though. The environmental constraints don't help. Much of the area is in floodplain and the soils are terrible heavy clay.

130 between Georgetown and Manor is where it's going to really fill in.

[ATXboom]

The limiting factor for buildout is raw materials and labor. Hence can’t build fast enough. There just isn’t enough lumber ans skilled labor to get the housing supply to keep up with demand and in-migration

[bossabreezes]

^^I find the raw materials angle to be pretty hard to believe, but I can see the possibility of not having enough workers to actually construct the buildings.

Either way, interesting to see how this will play out. I worry a bit that Austin will fall on its own sword in this regard, seems like it should be used to the inflow at this point in it's growth history. It runs the risk of becoming too expensive to make sense as a non-coastal, landlocked city with nothing but space to grow.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

^^I find the raw materials angle to be pretty hard to believe, but I can see the possibility of not having enough workers to actually construct the buildings.

Either way, interesting to see how this will play out. I worry a bit that Austin will fall on its own sword in this regard, seems like it should be used to the inflow at this point in it's growth history. It runs the risk of becoming too expensive to make sense as a non-coastal, landlocked city with nothing but space to grow.

There has been a world-wide shortage of materials dating back to 2017 (and the pandemic has only worsened the situation).

Also, Austin is not going to "fall on its own sword," at least not in the mid-term. Even though most Austinites are in awe of the increase in property values, it is still far lower than either coast (let alone the overall cost of living). Currently, the risk of a housing bubble is still quite low.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by The ATX

...Apparently the population growth has accelerated. The census probably won't reflect it until the first annual estimate after the 2020 census is published...

This is absolutely true. The Austin metro may have very well broken a record for raw population growth in a single year. My colleagues and analysts believe we grew by 70,000 - 75,000 in 2020. And, yes, you are correct, this will not be reflected in the forthcoming release of the 2020 Census. It should be reflected on the July 1, 2021 estimate released in spring 2022 (I believe).

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

There has been a world-wide shortage of materials dating back to 2017 (and the pandemic has only worsened the situation).

Also, Austin is not going to "fall on its own sword," at least not in the mid-term. Even though most Austinites are in awe of the increase in property values, it is still far lower than either coast (let alone the overall cost of living). Currently, the risk of a housing bubble is still quite low.

The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.

I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.

I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.

In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.

Well sure, but the cookie cutter suburban areas are for people that want families and/or space at a relatively inexpensive price compared to the coasts.
Obviously tech has boomed, but so has every industry that comes with rapid population growth.

Desirable parts of Austin are outlandish to buy in as of 2021, but folks with money are still snatching them up. Austin, unlike DFW and Houston, does have some geographical constraint that coincides where most people would want to leave.

I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.

I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.

In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.

Austin isn't just a hip place to live in anymore, it's a place where people want to move to and put down roots. It has matured.

I think Austin does have a severe issue in the short term (1-3 years) but it just needs the bottlenecks to unclog. As you noticed earlier, it has lots of new infrastructure and open space in the eastern half.