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  #41  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 5:52 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Are people aware the California coast is mostly steep elevations? My aunt lives right on the coast (like you can hear sea lions from her kitchen, with the windows closed close) and on clear days she can see Century City from 30 miles away.

Unless we're about to enter Waterworld, I don't think the Pacific is gonna rise 100 ft. Most of the Pacific is accessed via steep grade changes.

Even the Atlantic, at least in the Northeast, has pretty steep elevation rises. You would need Day After Tomorrow-type changes to force a blanket coastal evacuation. And high value RE can be protected via sea walls, which have worked in Netherlands for over a century.

I agree that South Florida is a special case, because there's no elevation and the ground retains water, but I believe they can come up with a solution. Necessity is the mother of invention.
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  #42  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 5:58 PM
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Of course they CAN solve it. Lots of stilts and localized landfills for starters. But the cost would be astronomical, and that seems likely to make the Miami area decline over time.
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  #43  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 6:30 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Never said everybody is gonna do directly to Detroit and Cleveland, the US is a huge country so people have plenty options. Atlanta is and has already benefited greatly from the hurricanes and disasters on the coast, you'll see more of that. You'll see lots of different inland cities winning.

All Texas cities will be dealing with significant climate change hurdles so they're all still at a disadvantage. Whereas great lakes cities will be the least impacted in the entire country. It's an advantage that will play out over the course of decades.
If inland Texas is rendered inhospitable due to climate change, then the rest of the country is pretty fucked as well. Including the Great Lakes region...which may have plenty of fresh water but the climate would be atrocious; harsher winters and hellish humid summers.
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  #44  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:04 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
If inland Texas is rendered inhospitable due to climate change, then the rest of the country is pretty fucked as well. Including the Great Lakes region...which may have plenty of fresh water but the climate would be atrocious; harsher winters and hellish humid summers.
First of all you don't really know what you're talking about here and there's no evidence winters would get harsher in the Midwest. Second of all Texas doesn't have to become totally inhospitable for it to suffer and lose out to other parts of the country.
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  #45  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:07 PM
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The Central Valley is super hot from May to October, though. Also, the two biggest cities there are pretty crappy, with very little in the way of real urban form. Bakersfield is almost entirely suburban, and Fresno isn't much better. The tradeoff between Coastal CA and the Central Valley isn't just limited to weather.
I guess it also depends what you consider the Central Valley. Fresno and Bakersfield are the two biggest cities in the southern half of the valley which is indeed hotter and more dry. But the valley stretches as far north as Redding.
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  #46  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:10 PM
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You didn't read closely. I wrote that I doubt there will be a "great migration to the Midwest from the coasts." I did not write that I think there will be no "migration from the coasts."

1. Most all coastal states have inland areas that won't flood, and I think those areas are more likely to draw more residents pushed out of nearby coastal communities than will Midwestern states.

2. After the inland areas of coastal states, I expect the most coastal emigres to continue to move to inland states within the sun belt. The ten fastest-growing inland states in the nation are, in order: Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Numbers nine and ten are in the Midwest, so there's that--but numbers one through eight are outside the Midwest. To me it looks like the inland region most likely to (continue to) grow the most from coastal emigration is the Intermountain West.

But who knows, it's all conjecture.
So we're going to build entirely new cities and infrastructure in the same coastal states just slightly uphill when we have tons of major cities that could take in people immediately? That makes zero sense and would pretty much be impossible. Current trends mean nothing and tell us little about how climate change migration will play out.
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  #47  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:17 PM
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First of all you don't really know what you're talking about here and there's no evidence winters would get harsher in the Midwest. Second of all Texas doesn't have to become totally inhospitable for it to suffer and lose out to other parts of the country.
Yo, I am from the northeast; the winters are already getting harsher and the summers are getting hotter with spring and fall becoming less pronounced. When I was a kid, there was always a ton of snow where as now its colder and icier. Summers are becoming hotter. If Houston were to fall into the gulf today, the population would move further inland...in Texas. You yourself mentioned Atlanta as a way between for inland climate refuge. Have you been to Atlanta. It's hot as fuck there already there but relatively safe from tropical storms. Likewise with inland Texas.
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  #48  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:26 PM
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So we're going to build entirely new cities and infrastructure in the same coastal states just slightly uphill when we have tons of major cities that could take in people immediately? That makes zero sense and would pretty much be impossible.
That's kind of what people have been doing forever. They adjust their living patterns to account for sea level changes.

They do it with inland seas too. There are thousands of homes at risk of falling into Lake Michigan, due to sea level rise and accelerated erosion. The homeowners don't move to Arizona, they move their homes back, and/or build seawalls.

My parents have a cottage on Lake Huron, which doesn't quite have the issues of Lake Michigan, but they put in a (painfully expensive) seawall a few years ago. It's part of the bargain when you live on coastland.
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  #49  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:42 PM
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There are thousands of homes at risk of falling into Lake Michigan, due to sea level rise and accelerated erosion.
lake michigan water levels have nothing directly to do with sea-level rise.

lake michigan water level is typically ~580' above sea level.

even if global sea level rises 500' over the next century, lake michigan would still be above that.



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Lake Huron, which doesn't quite have the issues of Lake Michigan
lakes huron and michigan are connected by the 5-mile-wide straits of mackinac, and are in fact one single giant lake, hydrologically speaking.

they share the same water level at all times. it is only through historical convention that we think of them as separate, individual lakes; the water inside them does not care.
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  #50  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:46 PM
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Are people aware the California coast is mostly steep elevations? My aunt lives right on the coast (like you can hear sea lions from her kitchen, with the windows closed close) and on clear days she can see Century City from 30 miles away.

Unless we're about to enter Waterworld, I don't think the Pacific is gonna rise 100 ft. Most of the Pacific is accessed via steep grade changes.

Even the Atlantic, at least in the Northeast, has pretty steep elevation rises. You would need Day After Tomorrow-type changes to force a blanket coastal evacuation. And high value RE can be protected via sea walls, which have worked in Netherlands for over a century.

I agree that South Florida is a special case, because there's no elevation and the ground retains water, but I believe they can come up with a solution. Necessity is the mother of invention.
Along the coast, there are still neighborhoods, harbors, etc that are affected by rising ocean levels. Venice and Marina Del Rey will be under water. Long Beach and Terminal Island, San Diego harbor areas. Cities like Stockton and Sacramento are at elevations below 20 feet, and while not on the coast itself, are at risk today from river flooding which could even become tidal flooding as Pacific waters rise. The coast is not just one big cliff statewide.
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  #51  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:48 PM
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I guess it also depends what you consider the Central Valley. Fresno and Bakersfield are the two biggest cities in the southern half of the valley which is indeed hotter and more dry. But the valley stretches as far north as Redding.
True, I have only been as far north as Modesto in the CV. I actually think the eastern side of the CV is kind of cool. Easy access to the Sierras, Fresno *could* become interesting, there's somewhat of an old west/country music vibe. The part that the 5 goes through, though, is hellish.
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  #52  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 7:56 PM
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lake michigan water levels have nothing directly to do with sea-level rise.
Lake Michigan water levels are at or near historic highs. Yeah, they have nothing to do with ocean levels, but the issues on Lake Michigan are directly tied to rising water levels.
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lakes huron and michigan are connected by the 5-mile-wide straits of mackinac, and are in fact one single giant lake, hydrologically speaking.
Right, but Lake Huron doesn't have the same issues because the topography is totally different. The Michigan side of Lake Michigan is typified by sand dunes, cliffs, and other geologically fragile features where erosion is more apt to play havoc on seaside homes. The Michigan side of Lake Erie lacks these features.

There are many thousands of cliffside homes on the Lake Michigan side; there probably isn't one home on the Lake Huron side that could be described as such. I also haven't heard of a single relocated home on Lake Huron; on Lake Michigan it's extremely common.
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  #53  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 8:40 PM
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Lake Michigan water levels are at or near historic highs. Yeah, they have nothing to do with ocean levels, but the issues on Lake Michigan are directly tied to rising water levels.
yes. i was just clarifying that lake levels have nothing to do with sea-level because we had someone on this very forum who thought that global sea level rise would mean that chicago and toronto and detroit would be underwater just like many of the coastal cities.

great lakes water levels rise and fall on their own cycle that is not tied to sea-level.

right now we are at one of the historic highs, and everyone is freaking out about how "there's too damn much water! what are we gonna do?".

10-15 years ago the lakes were near historic lows and everyone was freaking out about how "there's not nearly enough water! what are we gonna do?"

and back in the late 80s the lakes were near records highs and everyone was freaking out about how "there's too damn much water! what are we gonna do?".

that cycle has ebbed and flowed like that for thousands of years now.


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Right, but Lake Huron doesn't have the same issues because the topography is totally different.
the specific issues might be a bit different, but because they share the same water level, lake huron is not immune to rising lake levels in lake michigan. it's all just one big giant lake.

High water levels in Lake Huron causing problems in east Michigan

'Expect record flooding, record high water'
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  #54  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 8:41 PM
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I guess it also depends what you consider the Central Valley. Fresno and Bakersfield are the two biggest cities in the southern half of the valley which is indeed hotter and more dry. But the valley stretches as far north as Redding.
I've lived near Redding since March, and while I anticipated Sacramento-type heat, I did not expect it to be as hot as it has been so far this summer. Since July 1 my little hamlet has had 37 days with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 100°, and on 3 of those days the high hit or exceeded 110°; in that same time frame Sacramento has had only 10 days with highs reaching or exceeding 100°, and no day at or higher than 110°.

Yet in the winter of 2019 (before I lived here), Redding received 13 inches of snow in a single night, the most in five decades. The whole region lost power and the roads were impassible. Interstate 5 shut down completely. So . . . it's really not clear how climate change is going to affect this area, or many other areas for that matter, going forward. But at roughly 450' above sea level, we know it won't flood--so Californians seeking higher ground may end up moving here, rather than moving to Arizona, let alone the Midwest. But who knows.
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  #55  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 10:00 PM
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I really wish people would stop moving to Arizona and Nevada. We barely have enough water to support the people already here and if we go through a couple more winters and monsoons with hardly any precipitation, it's only going to get worse.

APS (Phoenix) and Tuscon Electric are already asking their clients to minimize their electricity use during the day. Mind you, Phoenix has already broken a record for most number of days above 110 F and it's starting to put strains on the power grid, made worse by more people staying at home because of the pandemic.

Then again, I have no desire to move east of Denver because I've lived in Arizona and California for so long that even the slightest bit of humidity is intolerable.
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  #56  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 10:30 PM
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I really wish people would stop moving to Arizona and Nevada. We barely have enough water to support the people already here and if we go through a couple more winters and monsoons with hardly any precipitation, it's only going to get worse.

APS (Phoenix) and Tuscon Electric are already asking their clients to minimize their electricity use during the day. Mind you, Phoenix has already broken a record for most number of days above 110 F and it's starting to put strains on the power grid, made worse by more people staying at home because of the pandemic.

Then again, I have no desire to move east of Denver because I've lived in Arizona and California for so long that even the slightest bit of humidity is intolerable.
Have you looked into where that water is going? I'll bet most of it isn't going to people for residential use. Where my place is in Pima County we've been fighting an endless battle with the state and feds to block a new copper mine:

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STOPPING THE ROSEMONT COPPER MINE

Since 2007 the Center has been fighting the proposed Rosemont Mine, a massive open-pit copper mine planned for the beautiful Santa Rita Mountains in the Sky Islands region outside Tucson, Arizona. The mine, a project of Hudbay Minerals, Inc., was proposed to be sited in the Rosemont valley, planned to be a mile wide, a mile-and-a-half long and more than 3,000 feet deep. Billions of tons of toxic waste excavated from the pit would be piled 600 to 800 feet high on thousands of acres of public lands surrounding the privately owned copper deposit, fouling the air and water and permanently damaging and destroying thousands of acres of habitat that supports a rich diversity of wildlife . . . .
https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/rosemont/

This mine, if built, would, by itself, use up much of the available water that could support future population increases. The argument is, of course, it would employ a couple of hundred people . . . maybe.
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  #57  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 10:34 PM
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If inland Texas is rendered inhospitable due to climate change, then the rest of the country is pretty fucked as well. Including the Great Lakes region...which may have plenty of fresh water but the climate would be atrocious; harsher winters and hellish humid summers.
We're all gonna die anyway:

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First male 'murder hornet' in US captured in Washington state
BY J. EDWARD MORENO - 08/18/20 05:08 PM EDT 129

The first male “murder hornet” in the U.S. has been found in Washington state, the state’s department of agriculture announced Tuesday.

The hornets, whose queen can grow up to 2 inches long, came to the U.S. from Asia and pose a grave risk to the native bee populations they feed on. Farmers in the Northwest and across the country depend on bees to pollinate their crops.

The invasive species also poses a risk to humans. In Japan, murder hornets are estimated to kill approximately 50 people a year.

The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) has now found a total of seven murder hornets in the state, according to The Bellingham Herald. All of the sightings in the U.S. have been in Whatcom County, Wash.

The WSDA located a queen earlier this year, though the discovery of the male came weeks earlier than anticipated for the season . . . .
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...shington-state
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  #58  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2020, 11:24 PM
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Yo, I am from the northeast; the winters are already getting harsher and the summers are getting hotter with spring and fall becoming less pronounced.
This goes totally against all observed reality. Winters have been getting significantly less harsh and warmer even just compared to what they were 20 or 30 years ago and that trajectory is only expected to continue. Especially in the Northeast.


Where Are America’s Winters Warming the Most? In Cold Places.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...r-warming.html
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  #59  
Old Posted Aug 20, 2020, 12:11 AM
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Yet in the winter of 2019 (before I lived here), Redding received 13 inches of snow in a single night, the most in five decades. The whole region lost power and the roads were impassible. Interstate 5 shut down completely. So . . . it's really not clear how climate change is going to affect this area, or many other areas for that matter, going forward. But at roughly 450' above sea level, we know it won't flood--so Californians seeking higher ground may end up moving here, rather than moving to Arizona, let alone the Midwest. But who knows.
Well, uh, my grandparents used to live in Redding, and parents would have lived there... except a fire tornado annihilated it right after they moved in. That was quite a new phenomenon. The surrounding mountains act as a basin and trap air and heat like nothing else which is why the Summers are so hot, and also why the fire got so out of control like that.
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  #60  
Old Posted Aug 20, 2020, 12:29 AM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
Have you looked into where that water is going? I'll bet most of it isn't going to people for residential use. Where my place is in Pima County we've been fighting an endless battle with the state and feds to block a new copper mine:


https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/rosemont/

This mine, if built, would, by itself, use up much of the available water that could support future population increases. The argument is, of course, it would employ a couple of hundred people . . . maybe.
Irrigation and mining make up a significant percentage of Arizona's water use, but we're not doing our environment any favors by continuing to build subdivisions in far-flung exurbs. Before the pandemic I used to drive down to Phoenix from Flagstaff at least once a month and the developments spread north from Anthem to New River. I'm hoping it never reached Black Canyon City. When my family moved to Phoenix 23 years ago, Bell Road was practically the dividing line between city and open desert.

Some people in this state cheer for the day when Phoenix and Tucson's metros connect. I'm not one of them.

Last edited by Buckeye Native 001; Aug 20, 2020 at 4:36 AM.
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